The conversation surrounding Dwight Howard's future as a member of the Magic has consumed the thoughts and minds of front office executives, members of the media and fans across the globe. Month after month, rumors have surfaced with information that Howard's headed to one particular team in exchange for some group of players, picks and prospects, only to seemingly lose credibility and fall apart just as quickly as it came to fruition.
With no deal in sight, the Magic announced on Saturday that they hope to move Howard by the beginning of August to gain some sense of closure heading into the new season. The question becomes which team will win the sweepstakes and add arguably the best big man in the league to its roster.
It’s going to be the Rockets unless Howard extends in Orlando (which I doubt, the relationship there looks pretty broken).
Lakers fans are legion and they seem convinced that it’s all but a done deal they’re getting Howard. What they don’t understand is it doesn’t matter that Howard is willing to re-sign there in the offseason–Howard doesn’t control his destiny anymore, the Magic do. Dwight gave up the right to pick where he wanted to go when he opted in at last season’s trade deadline.
All roads to Dwight lead through Houston, and I very much doubt the Rockets will settle for Andrew Bynum when they’re the ones giving up everything Orlando wants. They will cut out the middle man, go for Dwight, and bank on convincing him to re-sign in the offseason. Whether that will work is anyone’s guess, but let’s keep in mind that in the offseason his only choices will be re-sign in Houston or drop $30M to play in Dallas or Atlanta, neither of which are among his preferred destinations anyway.
The only reason I think the Lakers have a good shot to get Howard is that the Rockets don’t seem willing to give up Lamb, Parsons, or take on more than 1 bad contract. If you add the Lakers into the mix you can split the bad contracts (Lakers take on Richardson, Rockets take on Big Baby Davis), the Lakers throw in McRoberts 3 million dollar expiring contract, and the young Devin Ebanks. The Rockets keep both Parsons and Lamb and receive Bynum.
It’s still a long shot but it cuts the prospect cost the Rockets have to give out, they don’t have the take on more than Big Baby Davis (who could actually help out their rotation), and they get a C who is much more likely to re-sign. I believe Bynum is more likely to re-sign because he has been very much about the money in almost conversations he’s had on the subject, I can’t see him walking away from the extra 20 million.
I believe Howard is willing to walk away from the 20 he’d be giving up by signing somewhere else because he’s already said he’ll walk away and leave that same amount of money behind with the Magic. Why would that not be something he would be willing to do with the Rockets? It’s not like the Rockets will be any better for the next 2-3 years than Magic have been over the last 2-3. He’s also from Atlanta so I could see that as a better “settle” destination than Houston, a place to which he has no ties.
Houston is more likely simply because they could decide they are finally willing to give up Parsons, Lamb, White, Patterson, both firsts, and take on Big Baby or Richardson’s contract but they clearly haven’t been willing to do so to this point. Houston seems really high on Lamb and especially Parsons so I don’t see either one as being traded. They’ve also limited themselves in the amount of contracts they can take back because of Asik and Lin, so they are probably limited to choosing either Richardson or Big Baby and not both.
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