The Hornets could have had four first-round picks if they’d just been willing to give up the ninth selection to the Celtics, as Grantland’s Zach Lowe detailed earlier today. Boston also offered four first-rounders to the Heat for pick No. 10, as Dan Le Batard of the Miami Herald and ESPN reported last month. Both Charlotte and Miami said no and kept their top 10 picks.
The Heat and the Hornets had no guarantee from the Celtics that any of the four picks would be as high in the order as the ones they already held. Still, the ninth and 10th selections aren’t generally places where superstars come from. Justise Winslow looks like a steal at No. 10 for Miami, but Frank Kaminsky, whom Charlotte took at No. 9, has a limited ceiling. Neither is certain to pan out.
Thus, the question for today: Would you rather your team have one pick in the back half of the lottery, or four picks later in the first-round? Kawhi Leonard, a former No. 15 pick, and Jimmy Butler, once the last pick of the first round, signed deals this month that will give them maximum salaries this coming season, proving that top-flight talent can come from any point in the round. Still, the outlook for lottery picks is generally better than it is for anyone else, and teams picking higher in the order have the power of choice. But sometimes, the best choice involves a trade.
Tell us what you would do if you had a late lottery pick and received an offer for four first-rounders. To comment, simply enter your name and email address, write what you want to say, and submit it; there’s no need to become a registered user. Just make sure you comply with our commenting policy.
Nope. Mid to late first round picks lack value, Bostok offering 4 picks shows that.
After the top 5-10 everyone else is a project, or a guy that does 1 thing well – ie. A good rebounder, a guy who can shoot, undersized energy guy, etc.
Would you be a lot more willing to give up, say, the 12th pick instead of the ninth or 10th? Do two or three spots make a big difference?
Depends on your draft board. NBA has a huge drop in talent after the top guys. NFL has 200 players drafted, MLB has even more.
That’s why I said top 5-10, wherever that threshold is for the draft board.
Every year, with very few exceptions, there will be several players drafted in the mid-late first who will outperform lottery picks. And teams definitely swing and miss on high picks like Anthony Bennett, Evan Turner, Greg Oden (Joel Embiid???), Michael Beasley, Adam Morrison, and my favorite bust of all time, the legendary Darko Milicic. (Someone in Detroit looked at Darko and said, “Yeah, definitely better than Carmelo.” I was laughing then and I’m still laughing now.)
Everyone in the draft is a project to some extent. And when you’re getting down to 5-10, I’d definitely trade away that pick for 3 or 4 of mid-level first round guys. Instead of relying on big-name teenagers, teams should invest in scouts they can trust.
All those names you mentioned, scouts loved those players at the time. Scouts miss guys all over the draft, but lower the pick the lower ceiling.
You say trust your scouts after pointing out scouting failures.
Who did Celtics draft at 16 and 28? Non-stars, hustle players, undersized Guard types. That doesn’t win you championships.
Would you trade the 14th pick for the 15th, 16th, 17th, and 18th? I would. Technically answers your question too.
Haha, yep! Though in practicality, most offers wouldn’t be structured this way: You might get one or two picks that you know will be in a certain spot and the rest would be future picks, as was reportedly the case with the offer the Hornets received.
If I was GM of the Hornets (and MJ gave me the OK), I’d have asked for Marcus Smart from Boston. If Boston wanted to move up that bad, they may have bitten on that. The move would allow Charlotte to move on from Kemba, which they should anyway.
If I couldn’t get Smart, I still would have made that trade. Winslow and Turner were the only potential game-changers left on the board and if Charlotte was going to pass on those two, then they should have taken the package of picks.
That’s the thing I don’t really get. I mean, the allure of the “sure thing” who’s a known quantity coming out of college, like Kaminsky, is strong, but in the draft, there are no sure things.
If I’m a team that desperately needs a star (think the Sixers), I think I’d rather swing for the fences on a top pick. Otherwise, I think the value of trading down is generally underrated.
It’s a little like the theory that the Sixers and Celtics have been banking on for the second round. The chances of any one second-round draft pick panning out aren’t great, but the more picks you have, the better your chances. I think that once you get beyond the top five picks, you’re better off with quantity over perceived quality. We just saw an example of that today. 2010 No. 6 pick Ekpe Udoh left the NBA for a deal to play in Europe today (link to hoopsrumors.com). His new teammate on Fenerbahce Ulker of Turkey? Jan Vesely, the No. 6 pick in 2011. Now, the No. 6 pick the next year was Damian Lillard, but still, it’s hit or miss.
If you’ve got good scouts and cross checkers, then take the gamble. A lot of great players have come in later picks (15-40). Their is real value in those spots if you look for it. Second point, look at all the so called lottery blue chippers who have busted out.
I’m taking the 4 late round picks for the simple fact that they become trade assets. Draft picks are always tradable, and a high percentage of trades now include at least 1 draft pick. Maybe you attach a pick to a bad contract you want off the books; or maybe you package a few picks to go after a potential star from another team.
It all depends on where you are in the team building process. OKC this year for example, I would not take the pick as they had players and one good one is better then the chance for several. Minnesota also this year, I would keep a #10 over 4 late firsts as they have a lot of youth and projects already and can’t afford to take on more.
Now, a team like the Knicks, have no talent and would benefit from trying to get multiple solid players and possible all star then one top 10 guy(although I am not talking top 5 pick).
As to these two deals, if I was Charlotte I would have made the move while if I was Miami, I don’t. Miami signs free agents and has 2-3 star players. Charlotte needs more talents and took a probable non star anyway.
You get four picks to find someone in the first round who’s as good as a late lottery pick? I’d trust my scouting staff and take those odds every time.
The other angle to this conversation is SURELY the Hornets could have figured Justise to be highly coveted when he fell to #9.
What other calls did they field? Could they have reached out Miami, extraxted an asset AND gotten their man Frank?
I kmow this stuff unfolds vsry quickly it just feels like Charlotte locked in on their guy and missed out on a more aggressive play.
As to the question, yes, i take the four 1st rounders from a middlinf franchise (for now) like Boston.
Ok so none of us know what really happened, but clearly Ainge was frustrated. But you can’t make a deal like that in the middle of the draft in my opinion. Pre-work would have been necessary (don’t know if it happened or not) but the deal definitely would need to account for the projected strength of each projected draft class. I am sure that each organization does some amount of work in this area, but a deal that significant it seems would have likely needed potentially more analysis than is the usual in this area… it can’t be calculated in 10 minutes.
I love how all these Genius’ keep saying that Frank Kaminsky has a “Limited Ceiling”! They said the same thing about Jimmy Butler too! They didn’t think Wes Matthews could play either! One thing I know is, Frank Kaminsky & JP Tokoto are gonna surprise a lot of folks! Kaminsky is 7’1″in shoes,& 250lbs.! He dribbles like a Guard, Passes & Reads Defenses as good as ANY Center in the NBA already, he’s an Elite Shooter(that’s only getting better),& he’s a Solid & improving Defensive Center, that can play the Stretch 4 spot in a puinch! I was laughed at on this Thread when I said he would be a Lottery Pick this time last year, and now people are doing the same thing they’ve always done with Frank Kaminsky….Underestimate Him! Michael Jordan was right this time to keep Frank! He’s gonna be why they become a legitimate Playoff Team!