2023 NBA Offseason Preview: San Antonio Spurs
From 1998 to 2019, the Spurs made the playoffs for 22 consecutive seasons, including 19 campaigns with 50-plus wins (in 1998/99, they went 37-13 due to a lockout – a 61-win pace – and went on to win the championship). From 2020-22, the Spurs went 32-39, 33-39 and 34-48, missing the postseason each time.
Trading Derrick White to Boston at the 2022 trade deadline was the first signal that San Antonio was entertaining a full-on rebuild. Dealing Dejounte Murray to Atlanta last summer further cemented that plan, and the Spurs wound up trading two more veterans on expiring deals – Jakob Poeltl and Josh Richardson – at February’s deadline.
The Spurs finished this season 22-60, tied for the second-worst record in the league with Houston. The last time they finished with a record that poor was in ’96/97, when they won the draft lottery and selected Tim Duncan first overall, which led to five championships and the aforementioned playoff streak.
If the plan was to do a short-term tank while (hopefully) developing young players, ’22/23 was the season to do it. San Antonio will be hoping to cash in on its 14% odds and land another potential generational talent in French phenom Victor Wembanyama.
The Spurs’ Offseason Plan:
Considering they finished 29th in offense and 30th in defense with the worst net rating in the league (a brutal minus-9.9), it’s safe to say the Spurs need help wherever they can find it. A star to build around would be a great place to start, but they’ll almost certainly have to hope that will come via the draft or through internal development.
San Antonio has long been known as one of the most inscrutable organizations in the NBA. Predicting what the team will do in the offseason is a fool’s errand, but I’ll give it my best shot.
There are likely several young players the Spurs will have little to no interest in trading. Jeremy Sochan, Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell are in that group, with Sochan probably the closest to untouchable on the roster.
The Spurs have a history of coming to agreements on rookie scale extensions, and I think the odds are pretty high that Vassell will get a new deal after averaging 18.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.6 APG and 1.1 SPG on .439/.387/.780 shooting in his third season (he was limited to 38 games due to left knee surgery).
Youngsters Malaki Branham, Blake Wesley and Charles Bassey all need time to develop. I expect them all to be on the roster to start next season.
It wouldn’t be surprising if the Spurs gauge the trade values of Doug McDermott and Devonte’ Graham, but I don’t expect there to be a ton of interest – they’re fine role players, but their contracts probably have neutral value at best. Khem Birch’s NBA future is up in the air due to lingering knee problems, but his contract is also expiring, so they’ll likely just live with his $7MM-ish cap hit in ‘23/24 and hope he gets healthy enough to resume his career (waiving him outright to clear a roster spot is another viable option).
Zach Collins’ $7.7MM salary is a lock to be guaranteed, as longtime head coach Gregg Popovich has already said he would be the starting center entering next season. Injuries have plagued Collins throughout his six-year career, but he’s still only 25 years old and played well in ’22/23.
I expect Tre Jones, a restricted free agent, to be back next season, though I don’t have a great feel for what type of contract he might receive – he has plenty of desirable traits, but he’s a small point guard who doesn’t shoot threes well, making his market value tricky to gauge. I’m less optimistic about Romeo Langford returning unless he takes a discount – his qualifying offer isn’t team-friendly, so he’ll probably become an unrestricted free agent.
As for the other impending free agents, I wouldn’t be surprised if both two-way players (Dominick Barlow, Julian Champagnie) are retained one way or another, but it could go either way with the remaining three (Sandro Mamukelashvili, Keita Bates-Diop, Gorgui Dieng).
Assuming they guarantee Collins’ salary, re-sign Jones at a starting salary of $11MM (just a rough estimate), select No. 3 overall like their placeholder cap hold, and renounce their other free agents, the Spurs will have approximately $29MM to spend on free agents, plus the $7.6MM room exception.
I don’t expect them to go after any of the marquee names in free agency given the state of their rebuild, but some second-tier guys like Max Strus or P.J. Washington might be worth watching (Washington will be restricted if given a qualifying offer, as expected). They could also add assets by taking on unwanted salaries from rival clubs, like they did during ’22/23.
Salary Cap Situation
Guaranteed Salary
Keldon Johnson ($20,000,000)- Doug McDermott ($13,750,000)
- Devonte’ Graham ($12,100,000)
- Khem Birch ($6,985,000)
- Devin Vassell ($5,887,889)
- Jeremy Sochan ($5,316,960)
- Malaki Branham ($3,071,880)
- Charles Bassey ($2,600,000)
- Blake Wesley ($2,504,640)
- Total: $72,216,379
Dead/Retained Salary
- Joshua Primo ($4,314,600)
- Total: $4,314,600
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Zach Collins ($7,700,000)
- Total: $7,700,000
Restricted Free Agents
- Romeo Langford ($7,744,600 qualifying offer / $16,902,771 cap hold): Bird rights
- Tre Jones ($5,216,324 qualifying offer / $5,216,324 cap hold): Bird rights
- Sandro Mamukelashvili ($2,189,698 qualifying offer / $2,189,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $24,308,793
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 3 overall ($9,625,800)
- Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
- No. 32 overall (no cap hold)
- Note: This pick could be No. 33 instead if the Spurs pick earlier than Houston in the first round.
- No. 44 overall (no cap hold)
- Total: $9,625,800
Extension-Eligible Players
- Khem Birch (veteran)
- Zach Collins (veteran)
- Devonte’ Graham (veteran)
- Doug McDermott (veteran)
- Devin Vassell (rookie scale)
Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Keita Bates-Diop ($1,989,698 cap hold): Bird rights
- Gorgui Dieng ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $3,979,396
Cap Exceptions Available
- Room exception: $7,609,000
Pistons Fire Assistant GM Rob Murphy
Assistant general manager Rob Murphy was fired by the Pistons on Wednesday following an investigation of a workplace misconduct case involving a former female employee, writes Tresa Baldas of The Detroit Free Press.
The team announced the move in a statement to the newspaper, Baldas adds. Murphy had been on leave since the accusations were levied in October.
“Rob Murphy no longer works for the Detroit Pistons or Motor City Cruise, in any capacity,” the Pistons’ statement reads. “Mr. Murphy was recently terminated for violation of company policy and the terms of his employment agreement. The facts that gave rise to his termination surfaced during a review, assisted by a national law firm, of allegations made by a former employee.”
The team added that Murphy “did not return to the workplace prior to his termination” and stated that no further details will be provided.
Murphy served as president of the Cruise, Detroit’s G League affiliate, before being promoted to assistant GM last summer. Prior to joining the Cruise in 2021, he spent 10 years as head basketball coach at Eastern Michigan University.
Heat Notes: Butler, Strus, Adebayo, Brooks
A three-day break will give a few injured Heat players some time to heal, and the team is cautiously optimistic that Jimmy Butler will be available for Saturday afternoon’s Game 3, writes Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald. Butler suffered a sprained right ankle in the fourth quarter of the series opener and was a late scratch for Tuesday’s contest.
“His body will let you know, me know, him know, the team know,” coach Erik Spoelstra said. “There’s no way to predict it. But I’m glad we have a couple extra days.”
Miami is already playing without Tyler Herro, who suffered a broken right hand in the first-round series, and Victor Oladipo, who is out for the rest of the playoffs with a torn patellar tendon. Chiang states that Bam Adebayo is dealing with a strained left hamstring that has bothered him for most of the playoffs and Kyle Lowry is still experiencing pain in his left knee.
“Most of the year, we played every other day,” Gabe Vincent said. “So any time we get an extra day off, you take advantage of it. We’re looking forward to it. I know a lot of guys have kids and families and I’m happy they get some time to spend with them during this stressful time. But we’ll recuperate, get some treatment, rehab, whatever guys need and we’re looking forward to Game 3.”
There’s more from Miami:
- Max Strus had to leave Game 2 for a while with a lower back contusion, but he was able to return and doesn’t expect it to affect him for the rest of the series, Chiang adds. “I just fell on it, a little bruise,” he said. “It will be good to wait until Saturday.”
- Adebayo took the blame for Tuesday’s loss, Chiang states in another Miami Herald story. Miami’s center had 15 points, eight rebounds and six assists, but he only scored two points and pulled down one rebound in the fourth quarter. “I just got to play better,” Adebayo told reporters. “I feel like this game was on me and I lost it for us. I got to be better.”
- The Heat might have some interest in signing Grizzlies free agent Dillon Brooks if they can get him at a “bargain basement price,” Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated speculated in an appearance on The Bill Simmons Podcast (hat tip to HoopsHype).
Suns Notes: Paul, Payne, Ross, Warren, Irving, Ayton
Chris Paul didn’t participate in the Suns‘ practice on Wednesday and he’s not expected to play when their series with the Nuggets resumes Friday night in Phoenix, writes Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic. Although the team is listing Paul as day-to-day with a strained left groin, sources tell Rankin that he’s expected to miss at least a week, which lines up with another report from Tuesday night.
Paul suffered the injury midway through the third quarter of Game 2 while jumping for a defensive rebound. He grabbed at his groin area when he landed and was quickly replaced. Game 4 is Sunday, and it appears Paul’s next realistic chance to play will be next Tuesday in Game 5 if the Suns can extend the series without their veteran leader.
“Gratefully, he didn’t tear it or something like that where he’s done for the season,” coach Monty Williams said. “You always have to look at the bright side of a tough situation. We’re just grateful that it wasn’t worse than we thought.”
There’s more from Phoenix:
- Paul’s spot in the starting lineup is likely to go to Cameron Payne, Rankin adds. Payne, who replaced Paul after the Game 2 injury, started a career-high 15 games this season when Paul was unavailable. Payne recently returned from a lower back injury that limited him to four total minutes in the first-round series.
- With the team needing more production from its bench, Williams indicated that Terrence Ross and T.J. Warren could have larger roles in Game 3, Rankin adds in another Arizona Republic story. Both players were acquired in February to boost the Suns’ offense, but they’ve seen limited action during the playoffs. “I can do a better job of putting more scorers on the floor and living with whatever warts may come with that just to free those guys up so they don’t have to do it every single time down the floor,” Williams said. “We’ll make those adjustments accordingly.”
- Phoenix could try to land Kyrie Irving in a sign-and-trade deal this summer, speculates John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM (audio link). His reasoning is that Kevin Durant enjoys having Irving as a teammate, even though things didn’t work out as planned in Brooklyn, and Irving faces a limited market in free agency. Gambadoro states that the deal could see Deandre Ayton shipped to the Mavericks, who need to find a reliable center.
Timberwolves Notes: Edwards, Reid, McDaniels, Roster Decisions
The Timberwolves have decided their path to success involves building the best possible team around Anthony Edwards, writes Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic. The top pick in the 2020 draft took another step forward this year, averaging 24.6 points per game during the regular season and 31.6 PPG in the first-round loss to Denver. In a news conference last week, president of basketball operations Tim Connelly said Edwards will be “paramount” in all the team’s future personnel moves.
“We’re tasked with developing, I think, the best 21-year-old in the world who’s a … great, great kid who wants it, who’s so competitive, whose work ethic is off the charts,” Connelly said. “As he grows, we want him to see winning and we want him to be around winners.”
The Wolves were criticized for giving up a large collection of assets to acquire Rudy Gobert from Utah, but Connelly said that trade and the signing of Kyle Anderson were part of a strategy to ensure that Minnesota would remain a playoff contender. The front office wants Edwards to get as much postseason experience as possible early in his career.
“I think too often in our league the development coincides with losing, and we feel pretty strongly that the best way to learn to win is to win early and to win often,” Connelly said. “But certainly it’s a challenge to ensure that we’re doing anything and everything to make sure that he’s developing, not just individually but the team’s developing at a level that we think that we can get to. That’ll be the challenge this offseason.”
There’s more from Minnesota:
- It doesn’t appear the team will undergo major changes this summer, Krawczynski adds. Connelly told reporters that the Wolves “really like” their current starting five and that Edwards has good chemistry with Karl-Anthony Towns and the rest of the rotation. As Krawczynski points out, injuries limited the starters to seven games together after Mike Conley joined the team in February.
- The Timberwolves hold Bird rights on Naz Reid, which means they can offer him more money than anyone else in free agency, but they’re not able to give him a starting spot with Towns and Gobert on the roster, notes Chris Hine of The Star Tribune, who believes that will factor into whether Reid decides to re-sign this summer. Hine also examines potential extension offers for Edwards and Jaden McDaniels, along with the need to find a reliable backup point guard.
- In another Star Tribune article, Hine looks at which members of the current roster are likely to return next season.
Joel Embiid Cleared To Return For Game 2
6:38pm: Embiid will be in the Sixers’ starting lineup for Game 2, tweets Charania.
9:05am: Newly crowned Most Valuable Player Joel Embiid is on track to return to action in Game 2 of the Sixers‘ second round series against the Celtics, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link). Charania’s report suggests Embiid is expected to play on Wednesday night in Boston as long as he doesn’t experience any setbacks today.
Embiid has been sidelined since Game 3 of Philadelphia’s first round win over Brooklyn due to a sprained LCL in his right knee. He reportedly received a PRP injection last week to promote healing in the knee. Although he was ruled out for Game 1, reports at the time indicated there was “optimism” about his chances of making it back for Game 2.
According to Charania, after Embiid was officially named MVP on Tuesday night, he turned to the team during a brief celebration and announced, “I’m back.”
If Embiid does return on Wednesday and remains healthy for the remainder of the series, the 76ers have a legitimate opportunity to upset the Celtics, who entered the second round as the favorites to come out of the East.
An Embiid-less Sixers squad pulled out a Game 1 win on the road as James Harden matched a career postseason high with 45 points. That victory ensured the team will return to Philadelphia for Game 3 with no worse than a split of the first two games.
Celtics Notes: Horford, Brown, Tatum, Smart
Joel Embiid‘s absence wasn’t supposed to work in the Sixers’ advantage, but Al Horford believes that’s what happened in Game 1, writes Souichi Terada of MassLive. The Celtics knew for several days that Embiid was unlikely to play because of a sprained LCL in his right knee, and Horford believes his team wasn’t as focused as it needed to be.
“We didn’t do as good a job defensively as we could,” he said. “I really believe that it happened to us last year when one of their main players was missing, and Embiid being out tonight. As much as you don’t want to say it wasn’t a factor, I think it was. We have to be better. We have to understand that we have to be able to play with whatever happens, whatever variables.”
Horford pointed out that Boston lost several times this season against teams that were missing one of their best players. He cited Game 5 of the first-round series against the Hawks when Atlanta won in Boston while Dejounte Murray was suspended, along with regular season defeats to the Thunder without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Suns without Devin Booker.
There’s more from Boston:
- The Celtics need to make sure Jaylen Brown stays involved in the offense, observes Adam Himmelsbach of The Boston Globe. Brown was 6-of-7 from the field in the first quarter of the series opener, but he took just three more shots during the rest of the game. He told reporters afterward that he’s not sure what led to his reduced role.
- Jay King of The Athletic examines how Brown and Jayson Tatum learned to mesh their games, which included watching film together last season. King notes that players typically study game film as a team or individually, but Tatum and Brown were able to use those sessions to figure out how to be effective together at a time when many observers were wondering if they should be split apart. “I felt like it was a breaking point,” Tatum recalled. “It was either going to make or break the season. And we got closer instead of separating.”
- Coach Joe Mazzulla expects Marcus Smart to be ready for Game 2, tweets Jared Weiss of The Athletic. Smart is listed as questionable with a chest contusion.
Lakers Notes: Davis, Pelinka, Schröder, Bamba
LeBron James and Stephen Curry represent the marquee matchup in the Lakers-Warriors series, but Game 1 belonged to Anthony Davis, writes Vincent Goodwill of Yahoo Sports. Davis posted 30 points, 23 rebounds and five assists Tuesday night as L.A. picked up a road victory in the series opener. He also had five blocks and provided a deterrent to Golden State shooters on numerous other attempts.
“He’s one of the few guys that can defend laterally and vertically,” coach Darvin Ham said. “By that I mean he can get down in a stance and move his feet, keep a guard in front of him, force a tough, contested shot. I knew watching him during his days in New Orleans, watching him in the bubble, he’s an elite defender.”
Davis’ most significant number on Tuesday may have been the nearly 44 minutes that he played. He had a few days of rest after the Lakers closed out their first-round series on Friday, so Ham felt comfortable leaving him in the game longer than usual, including the entire second half.
Goodwill notes that the injuries that limited Davis to 56 games this season prevented him from making the All-Star Game and will likely keep him from earning an All-NBA spot. But when he’s healthy, Davis has always been recognized as one of the league’s best talents.
“He’s doing exactly what I anticipated him to do,” Ham said. “He’s playing like the top-five NBA player that he is.”
There’s more on the Lakers:
- Rob Pelinka’s 11th-place finish in the Executive of the Year voting doesn’t reflect the job he did in turning the team around at midseason, states Sam Amick of The Athletic. L.A. got off to a miserable start and wasn’t able to reach .500 until the end of March, but Pelinka’s rebuilt roster now looks like it can compete with anyone in the league. “I mean, we went 2-10 to start the year,” Austin Reaves said. “Darv wrote it on the board the other day, where I think they gave us like a 0.3 percent chance of making the playoffs at that time. For us to really just keep our head down and grind through it, like you said — it’s felt like a long year. But you look up, and you’re 1-0 against the defending champs. Anybody in the world would take that scenario.”
- Dennis Schröder made several clutch plays late in Game 1 to help the Lakers hold off a Golden State rally, per Broderick Turner of The Los Angeles Times. Schröder, who’s headed back into free agency this summer, said he’s feeling good after being slowed by an Achilles issue in the first-round series.
- Mohamed Bamba missed Tuesday’s game with soreness in his left ankle, tweets Dave McMenamin of ESPN. The backup big man received an injection to help ease the pain before the start of the series, McMenamin adds.
Community Shootaround: NBA Playoff Check-In
After meeting in the NBA Finals a year ago, the Celtics and Warriors will have to overcome early second-round deficits if they hope to compete again for a title this June.
The Celtics lost the first game of their second round series to the Sixers on Monday, despite the fact that the game was played in Boston and Philadelphia was missing MVP center Joel Embiid. The Warriors lost Game 1 to the Lakers on Tuesday even though they made 21 three-pointers to L.A.’s six. The two teams’ disparate styles were on full display, as the Lakers knocked down 15 more two-pointers and 20 more free throws than Golden State.
Even though Embiid is on track to return in Game 2 on Wednesday and Boston has lost its home court advantage, the Celtics are still the favorites to advance beyond the second round, per BetOnline.ag. That’s not the case for the defending champions though, as the Lakers are now considered the betting favorites in the West’s No. 6 vs. No. 7 matchup.
Neither the Celtics (-158) nor the Lakers (-155) are overwhelming favorites in their respective series, but they’re still viewed as better bets to make the conference finals than either the Heat (-118) or Knicks (-102), according to BetOnline.ag.
That matchup of Eastern Conference upstarts is essentially viewed as a toss-up, with the Heat’s split of the first two games in New York having been negated by Jimmy Butler‘s uncertain status going forward after he missed Game 2 with a sprained ankle. Miami is already playing without Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo — missing Butler may leave the team with too little firepower to knock off the Knicks, but if he’s able to return for Game 3 on Saturday, the Heat’s position looks much stronger.
Of the eight teams in the second round, the Nuggets (-430) are the biggest favorites to make the conference finals after registering two strong home wins over the Suns. But with the series heading back to Phoenix, a home victory or two for the Suns could significantly alter the outlook of that matchup.
If the Suns hope to mount a comeback, they’ll likely have to do so without Chris Paul, at least for the next two or three games. The future Hall of Famer has a strained groin and isn’t expected to return to action before next week.
With the first round behind us and this year’s potential title contenders emerging, we want to check in on your thoughts on this spring’s playoffs. Has your NBA Finals pick changed since the postseason tipped off? Which four teams do you expect to make it through to the conference finals? Are the Nuggets the best bet to advance, or is there another team you’re more confident in?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!
Latest On Dillon Brooks
One reason why the Grizzlies informed Dillon Brooks they won’t re-sign him this summer was a disconnect between the two sides over his role on offense, writes Damichael Cole of The Memphis Commercial Appeal.
Brooks’ usage rate increased each year during his first five NBA seasons, all the way up to 28.8% in 2021/22, but dipped back down to 21.8% in ’22/23, his lowest mark in four years. The comments the veteran forward made in his end-of-season media session over the weekend indicated that he wasn’t thrilled by that role reduction.
“I don’t think I lost any thing on the offensive end,” Brooks said. “I was just there to three-and-D, shoot and play defense. I got way more to my game than that.”
Of course, Brooks’ personality – both on and off the court – was also a major factor the Grizzlies considered when they made their decision not to re-sign him. As Cole writes, Ja Morant, head coach Taylor Jenkins, and general manager Zach Kleiman all expressed a desire to tone down on the trash talking going forward, while Brooks said he had no regrets about his own comments, telling reporters, “That’s who I am.”
Here’s more on Brooks:
- Despite an unceremonious end to his time in Memphis, there’s expected to be a market for Brooks in free agency this summer, according to reports from Shams Charania of The Athletic and Sean Deveney of Heavy.com. One general manager who spoke to Deveney suggested that Brooks’ price before his stock crashed might have been something like $54MM over three years — now, he could be a mid-level target for over-the-cap clubs. “There will be tax teams hoping to get him in on a one-plus-one deal—come to us, we have a good culture, help us win, clean up your reputation, and then go back on the market next year,” the GM said. “He’ll be in demand.”
- During an appearance on ESPN’s Around the Horn, Ramona Shelburne suggested that Brooks’ asking price on his next contract is – or at least was – $25MM per year (Twitter video link). Given the context, it’s unclear whether that’s solid info or merely speculation on Shelburne’s part — either way, it’s almost certainly an unrealistic goal.
- The breakup with Brooks is just the start of what will be a difficult offseason for Kleiman, writes Mark Giannotto of The Memphis Commercial Appeal. Within that story, Giannotto asserts that the Grizzlies weren’t the source of Tuesday’s leak to Charania, since it wouldn’t have made sense for them to say they wouldn’t re-sign him “under any circumstances.”
- Michael Grange of Sportsnet.ca takes a look at what went wrong for Brooks in Memphis and considers what the marketplace for him will look like this summer.