Assessing Stocks: Chicago Bulls
Portfolio Review: The Chicago Bulls are veritable billionaires in terms of roster quality. Third on ESPN's future power rankings (Insider required), the Bulls are young, deep, and talented. Furthermore, their success hinges greatly on the chemistry established by reigning MVP Derrick Rose and head coach Tom Thibodeau. The Bulls lack the sheer star power of the Miami Heat, but can close the gap through its defensive system.
That of course means any drastic roster change disrupts that chemistry, and as such the Bulls are amongst the most risk-averse teams during this season.
Prime assets: Rose is untouchable, one of the top five players in the NBA. That leaves Joakim Noah and Luol Deng as the prime trade chips with one caveat. The only deal worth disrupting the Bulls chemistry is one that lands a Dwight Howard-level talent.
Worthless stock: Carlos Boozer has a large contract and enough flaws for other teams to think twice about taking on that contract. But worthless stock does not mean worthless player. In this case it simply means Boozer's value as a player on this roster probably exceeds what he would get in return in a potential trade.
The rest: The rest of the roster features a number of interchangeable parts that fit specific roles on this team. Tweaking on the fringes of the roster would simply bring in other interchangeable parts. One interesting name brought up by our own Daniel Seco is Ray Allen for Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer–a move that would somewhat consolidate the two players' skill sets into one player.
Trade Candidate: Ray Allen
While hardly the same player who dominated the league with the SuperSonics for a decade, Ray Allen continues to be a steady starter on a team contending for a playoff spot. But with the Celtics looking at little more than a first-round playoff exit with a 14-12 record, the team must consider breaking up the Big Three in hopes of building for the future. If the team were to entertain trading one of their most prominent players, it would seemingly be Allen's name that would come up the most in trade talks given Kevin Garnett's erratic production and a general unwillingness by the Celtics to deal Paul Pierce.
Both Allen, 36, and Garnett, 35 will become unrestricted free agents at the end of the 2011/2012 season. But with Garnett currently earning $21MM this season, Allen's $10MM becomes more movable even though both players have expiring contracts. Beyond simply acquiring payroll flexibility at the end of the season, Allen would potentially provide a playoff contender with a strong veteran presence who could provide a boost both on and off the court.
Allen has averaged just over 20 PPG in his illustrious career but that number has dropped to 14.8 PPG this season to go with 2.7 APG, a figure close to what he has averaged during his tenure with the Celtics. Taking the 14.8 PPG at face-value would be doing Allen a disservice as a closer look at his numbers reveals a season of increased efficiency. With a 49.2 FG% and shooting over 50% on threes, Allen is well above his career average marks, making the shortened 2011/2012 season one of his finest in a Celtics uniform.
Health would not be a concern for a team acquiring Allen via trade as he has started at least 73 games in each of the past four seasons. After injuries plagued him during his Seattle days, Allen corrected his diet to better fit the demands of playing an 82-game NBA schedule. Thanks to a healthier diet in combination with an improved exercise regimen created in concert with the Celtics training staff, Allen is on path to start in 98% of the Celtics' games for a third consecutive season.
If put on the trade block, many playoff contenders, including the Bulls, would seemingly consider putting together a package for the former UConn Husky. While Richard Hamilton has played at an acceptable level since signing with the Bulls this offseason, his health concerns remain an issue as he has missed more than half of his team's games. At worst, the addition of Allen would give the Bulls one of the deepest backcourts in the NBA and perhaps push for more out of Hamilton once he returns from injury.
The Bulls could offer two young-ish players to the Celtics in return for Allen. According to ESPN's NBA Trade Machine, a trade of Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer for Allen works on paper and would net the Bulls three additional wins. The trade would provide Brewer the opportunity to start for the Celtics and for Korver to provide depth behind Pierce, but would lead to three additional losses for the Celtics.
While adding Allen to the Bulls may put them in prime position to challenge the Heat for the right to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals, time remains for the Celtics to better predict the course of their season. At 14-12, a string of wins could quickly lead to the Celtics being buyers rather than sellers come March. Similarly, a weak finish heading into All-Star Weekend could start the chatter about where Allen may finish the season.
Odds & Ends: Jennings, Deng, Spurs
On this date last year, Jerry Sloan stepped down after 23 seasons as coach of the Jazz. Earlier today we passed along the news that at least six teams are trying to convince Sloan to come back to the bench. Here are some more tidbits from around the league today:
- Bucks GM John Hammond told Charles F. Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel he was caught off guard by what Brandon Jennings said about possibly leaving the team for a larger market. While Jennings is under team control until the summer of 2014, Ersan Ilyasova will be an unrestricted free-agent at the end of this season. There's a strong possibility Ilyasova, from Turkey, may favor a return to Europe, as HoopsWorld's Stephen Brotherston examines.
- Luol Deng's selection as an All-Star reserve vindicates the Bulls for hanging on to him amidst many trade rumors over the years, writes Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer.
- Manu Ginobili's return, set for Saturday against the Nets, creates a rotation puzzle for Spurs coach Gregg Popovich to figure out, writes Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News.
- When Tyson Chandler went to the Knicks, the Mavs championship defense supposedly went with him, writes Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News. But, Gosselin opines that the team's ability to play defense even without last year's shot-blocking center will help them defend their title. (Subscription link)
- DeMarre Carroll, who was picked up Wednesday by the Jazz, was close to signing with Utah before the season started, Salt Lake Tribune writer Brian T. Smith tweets. Carroll signed instead with the Nuggets, who waived him Feb. 4.
- Chicago, the hometown of Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade, has also produced Anthony Davis, who is projected as the top overall pick this June, and Jabari Parker, the consensus No. 1 high school player. That makes the Windy City the center of the hoops universe, opines ESPN's Scoop Jackson.
- Dirk Nowitzki, who watched Ricky Rubio in Europe, didn't think the Wolves rookie sensation would have quite the impact he's having in the NBA, notes Dwain Price of the Fort Worth Star Telegram.
Sam Smith on Rose, Deng, Asik
Derrick Rose, who's been nursing a sore back, is sitting out the Bulls game against the Bobcats tonight. When he's been in the lineup, Rose has been seeing heavy playing time of late, as has Luol Deng and his creaky wrist. Longtime Bulls beat writer Sam Smith of NBA.com answered questions from readers concerned with overuse. Smith says as long as a player is healthy enough to play in the game, he's healthy enough to play a full load of minutes. That's an opinion shared by Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau and, according to ESPNChicago.com, GM Gar Forman.
Here are some more highlights from Smith's piece:
- The Bulls are unlikely to sign another shooting guard soon, despite the absense of Richard Hamilton. Relief could come closer to the trade deadline. J.R. Smith would not be a viable option.
- The success the team's been enjoying this year runs counter to the idea that they should blow it up to acquire Dwight Howard. Smith would like for the Bulls to see how far they can go as currently constituted before making a drastic move.
- Omer Asik's minutes are dwindling and he'll be a restricted free agent at the end of the year, but Smith believes there's no reason to consider trading him at this point and hurting the team's depth.
- Don't expect to see Chris Kaman in a Bulls uniform anytime soon. Just as there's no need to mess with success to acquire Howard, Smith says, there's no impetus to break up the team for Kaman.
Trade Candidate: Stephen Jackson
It's been a rough few weeks for the Bucks, who've lost Andrew Bogut for most of the season with a broken ankle and now must deal with doubt surrounding Brandon Jennings' future plans. Plus, there's been debate about whether Stephen Jackson has or hasn't demanded a trade. For the record, Bucks GM John Hammond is declining comment on the issue. Suffice it to say, with Jackson's playing time in flux, there's plenty to suggest Captain Jack will soon be shipping out of Wisconsin.
Jackson, for the moment, seems to have found his way back into the Bucks rotation after Scott Skiles elected not to play him in four out of five games. That doesn't include the one-game suspension he received after missing the team bus. He admitted frustration with his lack of playing time, which isn't uncharacteristic. His tenure in Milwaukee seemed destined for trouble from the start, when the Bucks acquired Jackson from the Bobcats at the draft last year. Jackson said the trade took him by surprise, and insisted the Bucks extend his contract before tamping down his rhetoric.
Jackson is not the most attractive asset for the Bucks to dangle at this point in his career. He turns 34 in April, and his 12.4 PPG is his lowest since 2002/03, when he was a part-time starter for a title-winning Spurs team. That's due in part to his decreased playing time, but his rate of points per 36 minutes (14.5) is way down, too. His contract, which pays him $9,256,500 this year and $10,059,750 next season, makes him that much more difficult for the Bucks to unload. It's that long-ago experience with the Spurs, in addition to leadership roles on surprising playoff teams in Golden State and Charlotte, that may convince GMs he's worth still worth taking on.
Dwight Howard has apparently indicated he'd like to have Jackson as a teammate, so that could point to interest from the Magic, who sought Jackson on draft night before the Bucks got him. That means the Nets, Mavericks, Lakers and any other team that's in on the D12 sweepstakes could be after Jackson as well. The Nets, who say they don't want to sign anyone else this year, haven't closed the door on trading for another player, and with recent signee Keith Bogans done for the year, there's an opening for a swingman that Jackson could fill.
The Bulls, who haven't been mentioned in Jackson rumors but are one of the teams linked to Howard, present an intriguing scenario. Jackson could provide insurance if Luol Deng's wrist doesn't hold up and/or Richard Hamilton fails to round into shape. Jackson's contract would mean the Bulls would have to part with some of their depth and young assets, but if they're concerned about having a second scoring option after Derrick Rose and want to woo Howard, they may bite.
Dwight Howard Rumors: Friday
With less than five weeks until the trade deadline, the Magic still hope to avoid dealing their star center, preferring to build around him long-term. We heard as much yesterday from team owner Rich DeVos, who put the odds of Dwight Howard remaining with the Magic at about "50/50." Here are today's updates on Howard:
- The Lakers are still on Howard's list, but he has some serious reservations about following Shaquille O'Neal's path to L.A., says Ken Berger of CBS Sports. "Dwight is very sensitive to people thinking that he is duplicating Shaq," a source tells Berger.
- In ESPN.com's Weekend Dime, Marc Stein explains why most Howard suitors, with the exception of the Lakers, wouldn't mind if the Magic didn't trade D12 this season.
- While they were surprised not to be on Howard's list of preferred destinations, the Bulls remain intrigued by the possibility of acquiring him, says Stein. Chicago prefers to play out this season with their current roster, but could be interested in making a play for Howard in the offseason, should he become more interested in Chicago. Since the Bulls won't have cap space to sign him as a free agent, they'd have to make a trade offer before July 1st.
- In a piece for HoopsWorld, Steve Kyler and Larry Coon set the record straight on some common misconceptions about Howard's future contract options.
Central Notes: Boykins, Udrih, Bulls, Cavs
Earl Boykins has made stops in plenty of NBA cities over his career, logging minutes with nine different teams since making his debut in 1998. His most recent NBA stint came in Milwaukee, where he played in 57 games with the Bucks last season. Boykins is currently a free agent, but may find an NBA home soon. He told Jorge Sierra of HoopsHype he's in discussions with a couple teams and "hopefully something gets done." Here are a few more items out of the Central Division:
- Beno Udrih isn't sure whether he'll exercise his player option and stay with the Bucks next season, writes Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times. As frustrated as Udrih is with his reduced role in Milwaukee, I'd be surprised if he passed up a $7MM+ guarantee to hit the open market a year early. You can check out the complete list of players with options for 2012/13 here.
- Sam Smith of Bulls.com doesn't expect the Bulls to make a run at J.R. Smith. I had the same thought when I examined potential fits for Smith.
- Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer follows up his report on the Cavaliers' preference to hold on to Anderson Varejao with a discussion of the team's trade possibilities.
Central Notes: Sessions, Rose, Irving, Pistons
Rookie sensation Kyrie Irving sustained a concussion against Miami on Tuesday, according to Tom Reed of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. He is not playing tonight, and there's no timeline for his return. With averages of 18.0 PPG and 5.1 APG, Cleveland's point guard was seen by many as the front runner for Rookie of the Year before suffering this injury.
Here are some more stories from around the Central Division:
- Before tonight's game against the Nets, Detroit head coach Lawrence Frank had nothing but good things to say about guard Walker D. Russell, according to MLive.com's David Mayo. "I think his mindset is that he doesn't want this to be for just one year," he said. "So now he just has to put forth the effort and the film work and the study to stay.” Russell's contract was guaranteed yesterday afternoon.
- The Cleveland Cavaliers reportedly want a first round pick for Ramon Sessions, according to The News-Herald's Bob Finnan. With Irving out from his concussion, and there being no timetable for his return, it's likely that instead of moving him, the Cavs hang on to Sessions for the time being.
- After falling to the Miami Heat in last year's Eastern Conference Finals, Derrick Rose sought the advice of former Pistons point guard Isiah Thomas, according to Melissa Isaacson of ESPNChicago.com. Rose has played through pain this season, with notable injuries to his toe and back. The two spoke about what it takes to be the premier player on your team from the point guard position.
Decisions On Non-Guaranteed Contracts
February 10th marks the day that all players on non-guaranteed contracts will have their deals guaranteed for the remainder of the season. However, if a team wants to meet that Friday deadline, it will need to make its decisions today, allowing its player(s) to pass through waivers in time.
Some non-guaranteed players, such as DeJuan Blair and Jeremy Lin, are in no danger of being waived. However, with a few dozen players on non-guaranteed deals across the league, there will be plenty of cuts before the day is out. Some of those players will sign 10-day contracts shortly after being cut, while others could join the D-League or find a place on our list of current unrestricted free agents.
We'll track all the day's decisions on non-guaranteed contracts right here, with the latest news up top:
- Other players who will have their contracts guaranteed for the remainder of the year: Ivan Johnson, Jannero Pargo, Jerry Stackhouse (Hawks), Cory Higgins (Bobcats), Brian Scalabrine, John Lucas (Bulls), Samardo Samuels, Alonzo Gee (Cavaliers), Sean Williams (Mavericks), Julyan Stone (Nuggets), Vernon Macklin, Damien Wilkins (Pistons), Dominic McGuire, Chris Wright (Warriors), Sundiata Gaines, Keith Bogans (Nets), Steve Novak, Jerome Jordan (Knicks), Ryan Reid (Thunder), DeAndre Liggins (Magic), Lavoy Allen, Francisco Elson (Sixers), Danny Green, Gary Neal (Spurs), Jeremy Evans (Jazz).
- The Jazz will guarantee Jamaal Tinsley's contract, according to Brian T. Smith of The Salt Lake Tribune (via Twitter).
- The Pistons are keeping guard Walker Russell, agent Giovanni Funicello told HoopsHype (via Twitter).
- The Hornets have waived DaJuan Summers and Carldell Johnson, league sources tell Ken Berger of CBSSports.com (via Twitter).
- The Rockets waived Jeff Adrien, reports Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). The move clears a roster spot for Greg Smith.
- The Wizards have waived Hamady N'Diaye, according to a team release.
- Chris Johnson received a call from Trail Blazers GM Chad Buchanan this morning saying his contract would be guaranteed, tweets Mike Tokito of The Oregonian.
- The Celtics will hang on to Greg Stiemsma and guarantee his deal, according to Gary Washburn of the Boston Globe.
- The Lakers have waived Derrick Caracter. Caracter broke the news himself, tweeting "It's over before it begun!!! …. On to the next chapter of my life" (Twitter links). The Lakers will hang on to Devin Ebanks, Andrew Goudelock, and Darius Morris, tweets Mike Breshnahan of the Los Angeles Times.
- The Clippers have cut Solomon Jones, reports Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter).
- The Heat have waived Mickell Gladness, the team announced (Twitter link). Miami's other two players on non-guaranteed deals, Eddy Curry and Terrel Harris, look safe, tweets Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel.
- The Grizzlies have waived Josh Davis, according to Ronald Tillery of the Memphis Commercial Appeal.
- The Spurs announced they've waived Malcolm Thomas, who was assigned to the team's D-League affiliate last week.
Zach Links contributed to this post.
Central Notes: Bogans, Thompson, Gee, Pistons
By this point, we expected to hear where Joel Przybilla decided to sign, but ESPN's Marc Stein tweets that the veteran center is still weighing his options. Though the Bucks are thought to have interest, Przybilla is believed to have narrowed down his options to the Bulls and Heat. While we wait for a decision from Przybilla, let's check out some links from around the Central division….
- Keith Bogans, who recently signed with the Nets, wasn't pleased about the way the Bulls released him this preseason, as K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune writes. "I put everything on the line each night," said Bogans. "I played with a hurt knee 82 games. I took a pill 82 games to get that (release) in return. Every time I play them for the rest of my career, it will give me something added."
- Mychel Thompson of the Cavaliers is trying to prove his worth, says Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon Journal. Thompson's non-guaranteed contract would become guaranteed if the Cavs hold onto him through Friday.
- Sam Amico of FOX Sports Ohio discusses the Cavaliers' trade assets, and suggests the team extend Alonzo Gee by season's end.
- Keith Langlois answered readers' questions about the direction of the Pistons in a Pistons.com mailbag.