Community Shootaround

Community Shootaround: Lottery Team Most Likely To Trade Pick?

June 3rd, 2025 at 11:45am CST by Luke Adams

From 2017 to 2019, at least one top-five pick was traded in three consecutive NBA drafts.

The Sixers and Celtics swapped the first and third overall picks (used on Markelle Fultz and Jayson Tatum, respectively) in 2017; the Mavericks and Hawks made a deal involving the No. 3 and No. 5 picks (Luka Doncic and Trae Young) in 2018; and the Lakers included the No. 4 pick (which became De’Andre Hunter) in their package for then-Pelicans star Anthony Davis in 2019.

We haven’t seen a top-five pick on the move since 2019, but trades involving lottery selections have remained relatively common. At least one lottery pick has been moved on or around draft night in each of the past four years, often by teams moving down a little in the first round.

In other words, while we can’t count on a high draft pick being included in a blockbuster trade every year, there’s clearly a precedent for top-14 selections changing hands in June. And this year’s draft features plenty of teams who could be prime candidates to deal.

The Mavericks, at No. 1, proved in February when they traded Doncic to Los Angeles that nothing’s off the table for them. But it sounds pretty safe to assume they won’t be moving the first overall pick, which they’ll use on Cooper Flagg.

That means the list of legitimate trade candidates in the lottery starts with the Spurs, who hold the No. 2 and No. 14 picks. Dylan Harper is widely considered the frontrunner to be the first player drafted after Flagg, but San Antonio already has De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle in its backcourt. Could that open the door for another team to trade up for that No. 2 pick, with the Spurs acquiring some extra assets while moving down in the draft and selecting a prospect who would be a better fit alongside their current core?

At No. 3, the top prospect on the Sixers‘ board might be Ace Bailey, but he’s widely viewed as a long-term play who might not be ready to contribute to a veteran team with title aspirations right away. The 76ers are reportedly eager to add some more youth and athleticism to a roster that was plagued by injuries in 2024/25, but perhaps they could trade down a few spots and still accomplish that feat.

There are no obvious reasons why the Hornets (No. 4), Jazz (No. 5), Wizards (No. 6), Pelicans (No. 7), and Nets (No. 8) would need to make a deal, but several of those clubs are loaded with future draft assets, which could put them in a good position to move up for a player they like.

The Raptors at No. 9 appear ready to transition to win-now mode as they prepare to incorporate deadline addition Brandon Ingram, while the Rockets at No. 10 are already very much in win-now mode, having struggled to find playing time for third overall pick Reed Sheppard last season. Will Toronto and Houston be looking to bring in another rookie or would they prefer to include their lottery picks in trades for more veteran help?

The Trail Blazers (No. 11), Bulls (No. 12), and Hawks (No. 13) round out the lottery, along with the aforementioned Spurs. And it’s worth noting that many of the deals in lottery-pick trades in recent years have involved these back-end selections — the 11th and 13 picks were included in trades in 2022, the 10th and 12th picks were moved in 2023, and the 14th pick was dealt in 2024.

We want to know what you think. Which lottery team is most likely to trade its pick? What sort of deal will that team be looking to make? How many selections in this year’s top 14 do you expect to change hands?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Draft Lottery Changes

May 13th, 2025 at 8:26pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Is it time for another change to the draft lottery?

That’s what many people are thinking after seeing the Mavericks leapfrog 10 other teams and win the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes on Monday.

If not for a wave of injuries – and of course, the controversial Luka Doncic trade – Dallas wouldn’t have even held any lottery combinations. The Mavs’ good fortune comes one year after the Hawks jumped from No. 10 to the top spot.

The current lottery format was introduced in 2019, in which the teams with the three worst records have an equal chance – 14 percent – of getting the top pick. Since that time, no team entering the lottery at No. 1 has gained the top pick, though four teams in either the second or third spot has had the winning combination.

With the lottery determining the top four slots, the team with the worst record has dropped from No. 1 to No. 5 three consecutive times – the Pistons twice and this time the Jazz. It can be argued that Utah, which overtly tanked for a good portion of the season, deserved its fate.

And that’s the issue. The current system was designed to discourage tanking, as was the creation of the play-in tournament to get more teams into the postseason. But it certainly hasn’t erased that strategy by struggling or rebuilding franchises.

There could be ways to make the lottery seem more fair. Perhaps not allowing a team to win the lottery more than once in a short span. Similarly, there could be a rule against a team moving up from its slot more than once or twice in a certain time frame. It certainly seems unfair that San Antonio has wound up with the top pick, the No. 4 pick and the No. 2 pick in three straight drafts.

The lottery could also be changed so that teams near the bottom of it can’t get the No. 1 pick. Any number of tweaks could be considered and it appears the current system could use some.

That brings us to today’s topic: How do you feel about the current lottery format? Should changes be made? If so, what should be done to make it fairer?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: Best, Worst Draft Lottery Outcomes

May 11th, 2025 at 8:37pm CST by Luke Adams

Fans of NBA teams who own a pick (or two) in this year’s lottery will obviously be rooting for their favorite club to get lucky on Monday and claim the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft, putting them in position to select Duke phenom Cooper Flagg.

But what about the fans who don’t have a personal rooting interest in Monday’s event? What outcome should they be hoping for? Would it be more interesting for Flagg to become the centerpiece of a rebuilding team that badly needs one, like the Jazz or Wizards? Or would it be more fun to see him join a team with some established talent that only ended up high in the lottery due to injuries, like the Pelicans or Sixers?

Here are all the teams that have a shot at the No. 1 pick, as our breakdown of the lottery odds indicates:

Utah Jazz (14%): The Jazz have made five first-round picks in the past two drafts, but none of those players looks like an obvious franchise cornerstone. They bottomed out this season in the hopes of landing one.
Washington Wizards (14%): If the Wizards ended up with the first overall pick, they’d be adding Flagg to a young core that includes Bilal Coulibaly, Alex Sarr, and Bub Carrington.
Charlotte Hornets (14%): The Hornets almost certainly would’ve been a lottery team even if they’d been healthy in 2024/25, but injuries to key players like LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Mark Williams are the main reason they’re this high in the lottery standings.
New Orleans Pelicans (12.5%): Perhaps no team was hit harder by the injury bug this past year than the Pelicans, whose decision on Zion Williamson‘s future (keep or trade) would be all the more interesting if they were able to add Flagg.
Philadelphia 76ers (10.5%): While Joel Embiid‘s health remains a major question mark going forward, no Eastern Conference team would want the Sixers to get the chance to add Flagg to a group that features Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey.
Brooklyn Nets (9%): The Nets reacquired control of their first-round pick from Houston last offseason, anticipating that they’d be in this position. That trade would pay off in a massive way if they get lucky on lottery night.
Toronto Raptors (7.5%): The Raptors have a crowded forward depth chart already, with Brandon Ingram joining Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett. Adding Flagg to the mix would create a pretty unbalanced roster, but they’d absolutely welcome that problem.
San Antonio Spurs (6.7%): Besides their own pick (6.0%), the Spurs also control the Hawks’ first-rounder (0.7%), giving them two outside shots at No. 1. Given that the Spurs won the lottery for Victor Wembanyama just two years ago, it would feel a little unfair for them to luck into Flagg too, but that duo would be very fun to watch together.
Houston Rockets (3.8%): The 52-win Rockets, who control Phoenix’s first-round pick, have no shortage of young talent on their roster already. Winning the lottery would be a case of the rich getting richer, especially considering that Houston also has extra future draft assets that could be used as trade chips for additional upgrades.
Portland Trail Blazers (3.7%): Portland’s young core features plenty of intriguing talent, including Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Shaedon Sharpe, and Scoot Henderson, but they’d love to add one more long-term keeper to that group before they start trying to contend. For what it’s worth, the Hawks moved up from this spot in the lottery standings to No. 1 last year.
Dallas Mavericks (1.8%): Jumping up to No. 1 might be karmic justice for fans in Dallas, who were devastated by this year’s Luka Doncic trade. But would it feel right for general manager Nico Harrison to be rewarded with a new franchise player after making that Doncic deal? Either way, adding Flagg to a roster that features Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving would certainly qualify as intriguing.
Chicago Bulls (1.7%): The Bulls have begun leaning into a rebuild this past year, having traded away Alex Caruso, DeMar DeRozan, and Zach LaVine. They’ll probably need to tear things down further if they want to have a legitimate shot at a top pick, but you never know.
Sacramento Kings (0.8%): The Kings’ top-12 protected pick will likely be sent to Atlanta at No. 13, but there’s a 0.8% chance of them moving up to No. 1. After a tumultuous year that saw Sacramento fire head coach Mike Brown and GM Monte McNair and trade star point guard De’Aaron Fox, new head of basketball operations Scott Perry would love to begin his tenure by seeing this long shot of less than 1-in-100 come through.

We want to know what you think. Outside of your favorite team, which club would you most like to see win the draft lottery on Monday evening? Which outcome would be a worst-case scenario, in your view?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Are NBA’s Top Seeds In Trouble?

May 6th, 2025 at 8:27am CST by Luke Adams

The second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs are off to an unexpected start, with the league’s top three regular season teams all dropping the first game of their respective series.

The 64-win Cavaliers, the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, fell to the Pacers on Sunday, and the No. 2 Celtics followed suit on Monday by losing to the Knicks. In Monday’s late game, the Thunder, who led the league with 68 regular season wins and dominated Memphis in round one, blew a late-game lead to the Nuggets and lost Game 1.

None of the three games were one-sided. The Pacers and Cavaliers were neck-and-neck through three-and-a-half quarters before Indiana pulled away late in the game; the Knicks required overtime to sneak past the Celtics; and the Thunder fell to the Nuggets on an Aaron Gordon three-pointer in the game’s final seconds.

It’s also worth noting that the Pacers are unlikely to make nearly 53% of their three-point tries (19-of-36) on a regular basis, as they did in Game 1. The Celtics probably aren’t going to miss 45 three-point attempts (they went 15-of-60) very often. And the Thunder could have easily won Game 1 if not for some questionable fouling decisions in crunch time.

In other words, the higher seeds may have no reason to panic — it’s not as if their opponents found glaring weaknesses that can be exploited for the rest of the series. Still, the margin for error in a competitive matchup can be slim, and the fact that those three higher seeds have all given up home-court advantage already could come back to haunt them later in the series.

Of the three teams who trail 1-0 in their respective series, the Cavaliers appear to be in the most danger due in large part to their injury situation. Darius Garland has been out since Game 2 of the first round due to a toe injury and is considered questionable to play in Game 2 vs. Indiana. Evan Mobley (ankle) and De’Andre Hunter (thumb) have joined him on the injury report with the same questionable designation after suffering injuries in Game 1.

Still, oddsmakers don’t appear overly concerned about the top seeds just yet. Despite the fact that they’re trailing in their series, the Cavaliers (-230), Thunder (-325), and Celtics (-355) are listed as solid favorites to advance by BetOnline.ag at the time of this writing. By comparison, the Timberwolves are just a -200 favorite against the lower-seeded Warriors despite that series not yet getting underway.

We want to know what you think. Do you still expect the Cavaliers, Celtics, and Thunder to make it through to the conference finals, or have the Game 1 results of any of those three series made you more inclined to pick an underdog to advance?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts.

Community Shootaround: Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Future

April 23rd, 2025 at 11:05am CST by Luke Adams

Through the first two games of the Bucks‘ first-round series vs. Indiana, Most Valuable Player finalist Giannis Antetokounmpo has put up absolutely massive numbers, including averages of 35.0 points, 15.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per night on 65.1% shooting.

But he has gotten little help from his teammates in either game. Milwaukee has been outscored by 29 points when Antetokounmpo is on the floor and dropped both contests in Indiana. The Bucks are now heading back home facing a 2-0 deficit in the series.

In both 2023 and 2024, the Bucks were eliminated in the first round of the postseason without Antetokounmpo, who was unable to suit up due to injuries. With their star forward healthy and available this spring, the Bucks had higher expectations and haven’t given up on achieving them — the series is hardly out of reach if Milwaukee can defend its home court in Games 3 and 4.

However, the Pacers have looked like the better team so far, overwhelming the Bucks with their fast-paced offensive attack and creating a difficult hole for Milwaukee to climb out of.

Point guard Damian Lillard has only just returned from a month-long absence due to a blood clot in his calf and doesn’t look like he’s in peak form, while trade-deadline acquisition Kyle Kuzma hasn’t been particularly effective through two games, scoring just 12 total points on 5-of-15 shooting and grabbing three rebounds in 52 minutes of action.

As ESPN’s Brian Windhorst noted on the latest episode of his Hoop Collective podcast (YouTube link), a third consecutive first-round exit would be a disaster for the Bucks, who posted their lowest regular season winning percentage (.585) since 2017/18, have been a taxpaying team for several years, and no longer have the assets to pursue major roster upgrades. It would also lead to serious scrutiny of Antetokounmpo’s future in Milwaukee.

“Giannis has been just awesome this season,” Windhorst said (hat tip to RealGM). “He has clearly understood that they’re challenged. And he has cut the BS out of his game and cut the fat out of his game and tried doing everything he can to carry this team, and they’re just not good enough. What is he supposed to do?

“This is the elephant in the room in the league right now. This team is losing tens of millions of dollars. They’re out all their draft picks. (Brook) Lopez and (Bobby) Portis are free agents.”

Windhorst’s ESPN colleague Tim MacMahon followed up by describing the Bucks’ future as “bleak” and suggesting that Antetokounmpo may have to decide soon whether he wants to be a player who spends his entire career with one franchise or if he wants to move to a situation where he’d have a better chance to compete for more titles while he’s still in his prime.

Even if the Bucks are eliminated by the Pacers in the coming days, that decision doesn’t necessarily need to be made this summer. Antetokounmpo remains under contract with the Bucks for at least two more years, with a player option on his contract for the 2027/28 season. And Windhorst stresses that there’s no indication the two-time MVP is looking for an exit ramp.

“From talking to people in and around Milwaukee, Giannis has given no indication throughout this entire season that he is not 100% focused on maximizing what the Bucks have,” Windhorst said. “This (speculation) is people in the league looking at the lay of the land, not anything that Giannis has said to anybody.”

Still, it’s not uncommon for situations like this one involving star players to reach a head well before the player reaches free agency. “This is what people in the league are talking about as they’re watching these series,” Windhorst added.

The Nets, armed with significant cap flexibility and a huge collection of extra first-round picks, have made no secret of the fact that they’re prepared to make a major push for Antetokounmpo if the Bucks are open to considering a trade — reports for the better part of a year have indicated he’s Brooklyn’s “Plan A.” But they’d have plenty of company if Giannis ever ends up on the trade block.

We want to know what you think. Can the Bucks come back and win this first-round series vs. the Pacers? If not, will this offseason represent a tipping point for Antetokounmpo’s future or will he remain committed to Milwaukee going forward?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts on the outlook for Giannis.

Community Shootaround: First-Round Playoff Series

April 19th, 2025 at 9:53am CST by Luke Adams

After a pair of off-days and three days of play-in games, the 2025 NBA postseason is set to begin in earnest on Saturday, with four series getting underway today and the other four to tip off on Sunday.

The first-round matchups are as follows, along with the date/time of each Game 1:

Eastern Conference

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Miami Heat (8): Sunday at 7:00 pm ET
Boston Celtics (2) vs. Orlando Magic (7): Sunday at 3:30 pm ET
New York Knicks (3) vs. Detroit Pistons (6): Saturday at 6:00 pm ET
Indiana Pacers (4) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (5): Saturday at 1:00 pm ET

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (8): Sunday at 1:00 pm ET
Houston Rockets (2) vs. Golden State Warriors (7): Sunday at 9:30 pm ET
Los Angeles Lakers (3) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (6): Saturday at 8:30 pm ET
Denver Nuggets (4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5): Saturday at 3:30 pm ET

In the view of oddsmakers, three of the eight first-round series are expected to be fairly one-sided. BetOnline.ag lists the Cavaliers (-4000), Celtics (-5000), and Thunder (-4000) as massive favorites to advance. The Knicks are also considered a good bet to get out of round one, having been listed as a -375 favorite over the Pistons.

The other four series are more interesting, with the higher seed not always viewed as the frontrunner. It’s the No. 7 Warriors (-170), for instance, who are favored over the No. 2 Rockets. The No. 3 Lakers (-190) and No. 4 Pacers (-160) have the edge in their respective series, but the No. 4 vs. 5 matchup in the West is considered virtually a toss-up, with the Clippers listed as narrow favorites (-120) over Denver (+100).

Ahead of a full slate of weekend playoff action, we want to know what you think.

Do you expect the Cavaliers, Celtics, or Thunder to stumble at all on their way to the second round?

Can the Rockets defend home court and their higher seed and knock off the veteran Warriors?

Who do you like between the Nuggets and Clippers in what’s considered the most evenly-matched first round series?

Are you anticipating any upsets in the other series and picking the Pistons, Bucks, and/or Timberwolves to advance to the conference semifinals?

Head to the comment section below to make your predictions and share your thoughts on the first round!

Community Shootaround: Wednesday Play-In Team Futures

April 16th, 2025 at 6:02pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Wednesday evening will see four teams in very different places fight for the opportunity to earn the No. 8 seeds in their respective conferences.

For the third straight season, the 39-43 Bulls will be squaring off against the 37-45 Heat in a play-in tournament game. This year, however, Chicago seems to have the edge. Per BetOnline stateside and BetVictor Canada, the Bulls are a marginal favorite as the home team.

Having moved on from former All-Star wings DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine, Chicago has been emphasizing more pace and ball movement. Star guards Coby White and Josh Giddey are propelling a fast-breaking offense that won 15 of its last 20 games to close out the 2024/25 regular season.

Rookie forward Matas Buzelis has benefited mightily from extended run to close out the year, while center Nikola Vucevic has adapted well to this speedier iteration of the team, operating as a trailing big who can be a release valve in these frenetic offensive sets.

Recently extended guard Lonzo Ball (wrist) and new trade acquisition Tre Jones (foot) will miss Wednesday’s game.

The No. 10 Heat, meanwhile, have been up and down since their blockbuster midseason Jimmy Butler trade. Armed with new additions Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell and Kyle Anderson, the club stumbled into a 10-game losing skid that was immediately followed by a six-game winning streak. Miami, which controls its own 2025 first-round pick as long as it lands in the top 14, might be happy to lose this matchup and reset with a quick rebuild through this year’s loaded draft lottery.

Chicago team president Arturas Karnisovas has been a frequent source of fan ire. He and ownership would probably like to see the young Bulls appear in their first playoff series since 2022. If Chicago does clinch a playoff appearance by beating Miami and then the Hawks in Friday’s final play-in game, would it prompt Karnisovas to shy away from the kinds of personnel changes he might otherwise pursue this summer, including a Vucevic trade for draft equity?

The Mavericks, on paper, are fielding the most talented squad out of the four Wednesday teams. Had nine-time All-Star guard Kyrie Irving not torn his ACL, Dallas could have been in the thick of the playoff hunt. Instead, the 39-43 Mavs are clinging to the Western Conference’s No. 10 seed. With most of the rest of the roster healthy, the club will be riding a super-sized frontcourt lineup centered around 10-time All-Star big man Anthony Davis as its two-way fulcrum.

Dallas was constructed to win around Luka Doncic. After sending him to Los Angeles in exchange for Davis, three-and-D swing Max Christie, and a 2029 first-round draft pick, the front office was roundly criticized. Still, with Irving, Davis, and talented two-way wings and frontcourt pieces, a healthy version of this team looks like it could be a legitimate tough playoff out. Due to the timing of Irving’s recovery and Davis’ extensive injury history, it’s unclear when exactly that healthy iteration might next be available.

Meanwhile, Doncic has raised the Lakers’ ceiling. If Dallas misses the playoffs, will the club’s new ownership cohort look to penalize Nico Harrison for the most unpopular transaction in its franchise’s history? The Mavericks do have the highest upside of any of the teams in action on Wednesday, but that comes with a massive health caveat.

Dallas will be facing off against a mostly-healthy Kings club for the right to play the Grizzlies on Friday.

After Sacramento team owner Vivek Ranadive fired former Coach of the Year Mike Brown midway through the season, guard De’Aaron Fox pushed for – and received – a deal to the Spurs. The 40-42 Kings have since struggled with their newest impact player, LaVine, under interim head coach Doug Christie. Sacramento is loaded with ball stoppers – including LaVine, DeRozan, and Malik Monk – but has perhaps the more talented offense than Dallas sans Irving, thanks in large part to do-everything All-Star center Domantas Sabonis.

Should Sacramento get booted in this initial play-in tournament matchup, would Sabonis at least explore a trade out of town? A report in March suggested that the big man is expected to “seek clarity” this offseason on the Kings’ direction.

Just two years ago, during Brown’s inaugural season, the Kings finally seemed to have discovered a direction and identity. Now, the club is floundering in mediocrity. Massive changes — perhaps starting with Christie and Sabonis — could be underway for the team this summer, barring a strong playoff run.

We want to know what you think. How will the offseason play out for the the teams that get bounced in Wednesday’s games? What changes would – or should – be made if all four clubs eventually fail to qualify for the playoffs?

Community Shootaround: Sixth Man Of Year

March 31st, 2025 at 9:47pm CST by Dana Gauruder

According to the oddsmakers, the Sixth Man of the Year award boils down to two Eastern Conference guards.

The Celtics’ Payton Pritchard is the solid favorite under the current Bet MGM betting lines. Pritchard has spent his entire five-year career with Boston, though he was in and out of its rotation two seasons ago and nearly got traded. The late 2020 first-round pick eventually received an extension and has become an essential and durable part of the Celtics’ second unit.

Pritchard appeared in every game last season and has only missed two games this season. He has posted solid numbers across the board, averaging 14.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 0.9 steals per night. He’s shooting 46.6 percent from the field and 41.3 percent on 3-pointers with a high volume — an average of eight per game.

Pritchard has exceeded the 20-point mark 21 times, including a 43-point eruption against the Trail Blazers.

Pritchard’s main challenger for the award is the Pistons’ Malik Beasley. Entering Sunday’s action, Beasley had made a league-high 292 three-pointers, which is somewhat remarkable for a reserve.

Part of the reason is Beasley’s availability — he hasn’t missed a game for the league’s most surprising team. Beasley has posted averages of 16.3 points, 2.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists and 0.9 steals per contest. He’s shooting 43.6 percent overall while averaging just 3.7 two-point attempts per game. He’s taking an average of 9.2 threes per contest and hitting at a 42.3 percent success rate.

Beasley started regularly for the Bucks last season but didn’t attract a lot of interest in the free agent market. He signed a one-year, $6MM contract with Detroit, which has proven to be a huge bargain.

Pritchard has a more versatile role as a combo guard, while Beasley is mainly relied upon for instant offense. Pritchard has the advantage of playing for one of the league’s premier teams. Beasley has been a major reason why Detroit has become just the second team in NBA history to triple its win total from the previous season.

That brings us to today’s topic: Who’s your selection for the Sixth Man of the Year award – the Celtics’ Payton Pritchard or the Pistons’ Malik Beasley? Or is there another player more worthy of that honor?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: Western Conference Playoff Race

March 30th, 2025 at 12:01pm CST by Rory Maher

The Thunder already secured the top seed in the Western Conference and seem on their way to clinching the top overall seed entering the 2025 playoffs. However, the five remaining guaranteed playoff spots in the West are still up for grabs.

The Rockets have been playing excellent basketball over the past few weeks and have surged up to No. 2 in the West with a 48-26 record. Only a catastrophic collapse would prevent them from earning a top-six seed, as they hold a 5.5-game lead on the No. 7 Warriors with eight games remaining.

The Nuggets, who are currently the No. 3 seed with a 47-28 record, are also in a strong position to earn a guaranteed playoff berth, as they’re four games up on Golden State with seven games remaining. It’s worth noting that Houston and Denver have among the most difficult remaining schedules, per Tankathon, but both clubs have a decent cushion on their closest competitors.

Saturday’s game between the Lakers and Grizzlies was a key matchup for both teams. The No. 4 Lakers (45-29) emerged victorious and earned the head-to-head tiebreaker on the No. 5 Grizzlies (44-30).

Even after the win though, the Lakers are just 5-8 over their past 13 games. They also have the second-hardest remaining schedule of any team, including four matchups against Oklahoma City and Houston over their final eight games.

The slumping Grizzlies are just 1.5 games ahead of the Clippers and Warriors, who hold identical 42-31 records, and two games up on the No. 8 Timberwolves (42-32). The Clips hold the tiebreaker on the Dubs, which is why they’re currently the No. 6 seed.

To word it in a different way: Only three games separate the Nos. 4-8 seeds in the West. And by opponent winning percentage, Minnesota has — by far — the easiest schedule left of the group.

Of the five teams bunched together in the standings, the Clippers and Warriors are the only ones with nine games left; the other three each have eight.

Securing a top-six seed is critical, as it ensures teams will make the playoffs outright. Those who fall outside of the top six will have to compete in the play-in tournament to try and claim the final two playoff spots in the West. Dallas, Sacramento and Phoenix are essentially in a three-way race for the ninth and tenth seeds and thus the final two spots in the play-in.

We want to know what you think. Aside from the Thunder, which other five teams will secure top-six seeds in the West? Which teams will be heading to the play-in tournament? Head to the comments section to weigh in.

Community Shootaround: The NBA’s Tanking Problem

March 25th, 2025 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Late-season tanking is a perennial issue for the NBA, but it has been particularly bad so far in 2025, with teams who have their eye on the draft lottery employing new strategies in an apparent effort to get around the league’s player participation policies.

As Tom Haberstroh of Yahoo Sports and John Hollinger of The Athletic write, one approach that multiple teams have used this month is to hold key players out of crunch-time situations. Haberstroh refers to it as “quiet quitting.”

For instance, while Raptors forward Scottie Barnes has only missed one game this month, he has played more than 30 minutes in just three of 11 outings after averaging 34.7 MPG in 46 pre-March contests. Barnes and other Raptors starters have been on the bench in the fourth quarter of multiple games.

Because players like Barnes and Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen qualify as “stars” under the NBA’s player participation policy, holding them out of games entirely without a valid reason could prompt a league investigation — Utah has already faced one $100K fine for its usage (or lack thereof) of Markkanen.

However, that policy only explicitly applies to players who have made an All-Star or All-NBA team over the past three seasons. That means that the Nets, for instance, were able to hold a “non-star” like Cameron Johnson out of last Thursday’s game for “rest” even though Johnson was healthy and Brooklyn didn’t play on either Wednesday or Friday, Haberstroh observes.

When the NBA flattened its lottery odds several years ago, the goal was to reduce the incentives for losing games. But those changes haven’t been as effective as hoped in part because the league hasn’t incentivized winning for lottery-bound teams, Hollinger argues.

As Hollinger explains, even if losses didn’t improve a team’s lottery odds and draft position, a club like Toronto or Utah may not be incentivized to compete hard for wins at this point of the season, since there’s little reason to push a franchise player like Barnes or Markkanen, who are on lucrative long-term contracts, too hard in games that essentially don’t matter. “Asking a team to put meaningful players at risk in meaningless games is inherently a contradiction,” Hollinger writes.

So what could be done to address the issue? Tim Bontemps and Kevin Pelton of ESPN spoke to sources around the NBA about that subject and came up with a few possible ideas, some more viable than others.

Flattening the lottery odds even further was one of the ideas mentioned. Another was determining the odds based on how the lottery teams fare against one another during the season. However, both suggestions are complicated by the fact that a borderline playoff team may decide that having a viable shot at the No. 1 pick is a better outcome than eking out a playoff spot and being on the receiving end of a first-round beatdown from a top seed.

There would also likely be resistance to any proposal that significantly reduced the odds of the league’s very worst teams having a shot at top draft picks, since the NBA still wants to encourage competitive balance and avoid miring a club in a rebuild that it can’t find its way out of.

Multiple sources suggested to ESPN that removing mid-lottery pick protections on traded draft picks could be one step in the right direction. For instance, one of the most egregious cases of tanking in recent years saw the 2023 Mavericks rest players at the end of the season in an effort to hang onto their top-10 protected pick, even though they still had a shot at the play-in tournament. Allowing a pick to be top-four protected or top-14 protected, without any options in between, could eliminate that kind of scenario.

Another idea posed by sources who spoke to Bontemps and Pelton would be to count team wins instead of losses after the All-Star break for the sake of determining the draft lottery order.

For example, if a team posted a 19-35 record before the All-Star break, then went 18-10 the rest of the way, its “lottery record” would be 29-53, with its pre-All-Star wins added to its post-All-Star losses. If a second team that was also 19-35 at the break went 10-18 after the All-Star game, its “lottery record” would be 37-45, resulting in less favorable odds than the club that performed better down the stretch.

We want to know what you think. Does the NBA need to take steps to address its tanking problem? If so, what approach makes the most sense?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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