Earlier today, we explored what the lottery odds for the 2020 NBA draft would look like if the regular season doesn’t resume. We’re now applying that hypothetical to another aspect of the draft and examining which traded 2020 picks would and wouldn’t change hands based on the current standings.
Our projections below assume that the NBA will sort its standings by winning percentage in scenarios where teams haven’t played the same number of games this season. Again, this is just a hypothetical exercise — if the season resumes, the order below would likely change.
With that in mind and with the help of our reverse standings, let’s take a closer look at where this year’s traded draft picks would land if the NBA has played its last regular season game of 2019/20.
- Minnesota Timberwolves (from Nets)
- Boston Celtics (from Grizzlies)
- Brooklyn Nets (from Sixers)
- Note: Could be No. 20 depending on random tiebreaker.
- Milwaukee Bucks (from Pacers)
- Note: Could be No. 19 depending on random tiebreaker.
- Philadelphia 76ers (from Thunder)
- Note: Could be No. 22 depending on random tiebreaker.
- Denver Nuggets (from Rockets)
- Note: Could be No. 21 depending on random tiebreaker.
- Oklahoma City Thunder (from Nuggets)
- New York Knicks (from Clippers)
- Boston Celtics (from Bucks)
- Golden State Warriors (to Nets; top-20 protected)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (to Pelicans; top-20 protected)
- Utah Jazz (to Grizzlies; top-7 and 15-30 protected)
- The Thunder pick would be the one worth watching closest if the season does resume. It’s top-20 protected, so OKC would keep it if it were to move up a spot or two, sending the Sixers second-round picks in 2022 and 2023 instead.
- Dallas Mavericks (from Warriors)
- Charlotte Hornets (from Cavaliers)
- Philadelphia 76ers (from Hawks)
- Sacramento Kings (from Pistons)
- Philadelphia 76ers (from Knicks)
- Washington Wizards (from Bulls)
- New York Knicks (from Hornets)
- New Orleans Pelicans (from Wizards)
- Memphis Grizzlies (from Suns)
- Boston Celtics (from Nets)
- Chicago Bulls (from Grizzlies)
- Golden State Warriors (from Mavericks)
- Atlanta Hawks (from Rockets)
- Note: Could be No. 51 depending on random tiebreaker.
- Sacramento Kings (from Heat)
- Golden State Warriors (from Jazz)
- Brooklyn Nets (from Nuggets)
- Charlotte Hornets (from Celtics)
- Philadelphia 76ers (from Lakers)
- New Orleans Pelicans (from Bucks)
- Indiana Pacers (to Nets; 45-60 protected)
- Portland Trail Blazers (to Nets; top-55 protected)
- The Hawks will receive the more favorable of Houston’s and Miami’s second-round picks, while the Kings will receive the less favorable of those two picks. Those two picks could end up right next to one another, since the Rockets (40-24) and Heat (41-24) have nearly identical records.
- The Celtics’ pick looks like it will be one of the rare second-rounders with heavy protection that will actually change hands. Boston would have kept it if it had fallen in the top 53.
While the NBA hopes that resuming the 2019/20 season will be possible, there are scenarios in which the league could proceed directly to the postseason or has to cancel the rest of the ’19/20 campaign entirely. If such measures are necessary, it would mean that the NBA’s current standings will be its final standings.
It’s tricky to say exactly what that would mean for an event like the 2020 NBA draft, which hinges in large part on the previous season’s standings. After all, some teams have played as few as 64 games, while others have played as many as 67.
Teams like the Hawks (20-47) and Cavaliers (19-46) are an equal number of games back of the clubs ahead of them the standings, but Atlanta has the better winning percentage. Presumably, that would mean Cleveland moves ahead of the Hawks in the projected draft order and for lottery odds purposes. Based on winning percentage, the Cavs would also have better lottery positioning than the Timberwolves (19-45), despite having the same number of wins.
With that in mind, we’re looking today at what the lottery odds would be if the NBA’s regular season doesn’t resume and the league ranks its teams by winning percentage. It’s a hypothetical exercise, but one which could become increasingly relevant the longer the league’s hiatus extends.
For a full breakdown of how the NBA draft lottery works, be sure to check out our glossary entry on the subject. The standard odds chart for the new draft lottery format is included in our glossary entry, but the numbers in that chart don’t quite match up with 2020’s lottery, since the Kings and Pelicans currently have identical records. That tie would impact the odds for this year’s lottery.
With the help of our reverse standings and data from Tankathon.com – which is worth bookmarking for all sorts of draft-related info – we’ve listed the new, hypothetical odds for 2020 in the chart below.
The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Warriors, for example, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.
Here’s the full chart:
* The Kings and Pelicans have matching 28-36 records and would be subject to a random tiebreaker to determine which team gets the No. 12 slot and which gets No. 13. Their spots in this list (and their odds) could be flipped.
- The Bulls‘ ownership group, along with United Center ownership, announced that it will pay day-of-game employees through the remained of the originally scheduled season. The Nets issued a press release indicating they’ll do the same for hourly employees who worked games and events at Barclays Center. A team official said the Sixers are doing so too, tweets John Clark of NBC Sports Philadelphia.
- The Spurs announced the formation of a fund totaling $500K+ that will be used to pay its part-time employees through the rest of the season. The Hornets also established a fund to assist the organization’s part-time employees who had been scheduled to work Hornets and Greensboro Swarm games through the end of their respective seasons.
- The Nuggets‘ ownership group pledged to pay its part-time and hourly employees for the next 30 days, per a press release.
- Madison Square Garden has committed to paying event-driven employees, including those who work at Knicks games, through March 22 and is working to come up with a longer-term plan, per a memo obtained by Ian Begley of SNY.tv. The Suns, meanwhile, are paying their employees who were scheduled to work their two home games in March, noting that the staffing for their four home games in April hadn’t yet been finalized.
- The Raptors said in a press release that they have joined forces with Toronto’s other sports franchises to create a fund for arena and stadium workers. “Being a good teammate means looking out for our neighbours, friends and the people we work with,” Raptors president Masai Ujiri said in a statement. “Through this fund, we all pledge to be good teammates to our arena, stadium and support staff. We want to be here for them, the way they are always here for us.”
- Following the lead of stars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, the rest of the Bucks‘ roster has also committed to making donations to impacted Fiserv Forum workers, per the team (Twitter link). Magic center Mohamed Bamba vowed to do the same for Amway Center employees (Twitter link).
- Timberwolves big man Karl-Anthony Towns is making a $100K donation as well, but his money will be going to the Mayo Clinic, which is rolling out a test to detect the virus that causes COVID-19. “My hope is that we can fight this virus quicker and more efficiently by increasing the testing capabilities and availability and Mayo Clinic’s overall COVID-19 response,” Towns tweeted.
Hornets head coach James Borrego has developed a notable recruiting pitch for impending free agents this summer, Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer writes.
Charlotte is slated to have a respectable amount of salary-cap space after the season, allowing the team to consider multiple talents that are set to reach the open market.
“I feel like basically every guy we’ve drafted has shown some real promise for us,” Borrego explained this past week, as relayed by Bonnell. “What that leads into is what an attractive place this could be for free agents moving forward.”
The Hornets are establishing a proven track record of developing talent, currently sporting a young core that consists of Devonte’ Graham, Miles Bridges, P.J. Washington, and more. Charlotte showed flashes of potential with its young nucleus prior to the NBA’s hiatus. However, the team was just 23-42 on the season, the sixth-worst record in the East.
“Absolutely!” Borrego said when asked if his team’s pitch could attract free agents this summer. “Players are looking at (salary) numbers and years — that’s a major factor — but they want to go to a place where they can maximize growth and development. We’re putting a good body of work together to show that.”
Here are some other notes from the Southeast Division:
- Heat center Bam Adebayo chimed in on social media amidst the NBA’s hiatus, as relayed by Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel. Adebayo understandably expressed boredom with the league being suspended indefinitely. The 22-year-old has averaged 16.2 points, 10.5 rebounds and 5.1 assists in 65 contests on the season.
- Ira Winderman examines the week that could’ve been for the Heat in a separate article for the Sun Sentinel, including the rematch between Jimmy Butler and T.J. Warren on March 20. Miami has enjoyed a successful season to date, owning the fourth-best record in the East at 41-24.
- Chris Miller of NBC Sports Washington takes a look at what different Wizards players are doing during the NBA’s hiatus. As Miller notes, many players are enjoying personal activities such as playing video games, watching movies, or watching TV shows.
A moratorium agreement between the NBA and the NBPA will reportedly affect players on 10-day contracts, as Shams Charania of The Athletic said earlier today. Following up on that point, ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Twitter links) confirms that the clock will stop on the 10-day contracts that were active when the NBA suspended its season.
Presumably, Grizzlies forward Anthony Tolliver won’t be impacted. His 10-day deal with Memphis was set to expire on Wednesday night, the last night of game action before the suspension began. Once the moratorium is lifted and play resumes, he’ll likely have to sign a new 10-day contract or rest-of-season pact with the Grizzlies to remain with the team.
However, there were seven other players whose 10-day contracts had yet to run their course as of Wednesday night. Here are the affected players, with the number of days remaining on their deals noted in parentheses:
- Joe Chealey, Hornets (1)
- Donta Hall, Pistons (1)
- Chasson Randle, Warriors (1)
- Sir’Dominic Pointer, Cavaliers (2)
- Dragan Bender, Warriors (3)
- Sheldon Mac, Cavaliers (6)
- Joakim Noah, Clippers (7)
We’ll have to wait for official details on the moratorium agreement to confirm exactly how these 10-day deals will be handled.
Based on today’s reports though, it sounds like the contracts for players like Chealey, Hall, and Randle, which would have expired on Thursday night, will carry over to the day the season resumes. A player like Noah, who still had a week left on his 10-day contract, should play out that week following the resumption of the season.
Terry Rozier, who joined the Hornets this past offseason, doesn’t have to fill Kemba Walker‘s shoes, Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer writes. The offensive doesn’t necessarily revolve around Rozier and the point guard is alright with that role.
“When you come to a new team, there are a lot of expectations when you get signed [to a big contract],” teammate Bismack Biyombo said. “He’s trusted the coaches and adapted to the system, which isn’t easy right away. And he has excelled.”
- Jalen McDaniels has been a pleasant surprise for the Hornets this season and lately, he’s been the first player off the bench for the squad, as Bonnell relays in a separate piece. “We’ve said, ‘Here’s your role, here’s what we need from you. Go execute it’. And he’s doing that right now,” James Borrego said.
- The buyouts of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marvin Williams paved the way for McDaniels to see more playing time. with the Hornets. Bonnell notes in the same piece. MKG went to Dallas after his buyout agreement while Williams landed in Milwaukee.
- The Hornets are impressed with undrafted free agent Caleb Martin, who has split his time between the NBA club and its G League affiliate. “For him to make it in this league, he’s going to have to make that 3-ball,” Borrego said (via Bonnell in a separate piece). “He was really good offensively — attacked the rim, played with great pace, moved the ball. And he competes defensively. I’ve got Cody a little bit ahead of him defensively right now — that’s why we drafted him — but Caleb’s got the same length and size and tenacity.”
Here are Monday’s assignments and recalls from around the NBA G League:
- Forward Donta Hall has been recalled by the Pistons, James Edwards of The Athletic tweets. Hall is nearing the end of his second 10-day contract with the club. He has appeared in three Pistons games since signing his first one.
- The Grizzlies assigned and then recalled swingman Justise Winslow, the team’s PR department tweets. Winslow participated in a practice with the G League club as part of a rehab assignment for his back injury.
- The Hornets recalled guard Dwayne Bacon from their Greensboro affiiliate, according a team press release. Bacon has appeared in 39 games with Charlotte, posting averages of 5.7 PPG, 2.6 RPG and 1.3 APG in 17.6 MPG.
- The Knicks assigned rookie Ignas Brazdeikis to their Westchester affiliate, according to the G League transactions log. Brazdeikis, a second-round pick out of Michigan, has appeared in nine Knicks games.
- The Jazz assigned guard Miye Oni to the Salt Lake City Stars, according to the same log. The rookie out of Yale has played in five Utah games.
The five-year, $120MM deal Batum signed in the summer of 2016 remains the largest ever given out by the Hornets. After putting up decent numbers during the past three years, he lost his starting job this season and has been stuck on the end of the bench as Charlotte opted for a youth movement.
“I apologize to the people here,” he said, “because they put so much faith in me. And it didn’t go well… . It didn’t work out. But what do I have to do? Because I’m still here.”
Batum has appeared in 22 games this season, but head coach James Borrego didn’t use him at all in February. The last time he saw the court was in a January 24 game played in his native France.
Fowler points out that Batum remains a supportive member of the team and is serving as a mentor to a roster filled with first- and second-year players. As a veteran, he has interceded with officials on behalf of his teammates and estimates he has saved the Hornets from about a half-dozen technical fouls.
“I don’t want to be selfish,” Batum said. “… I don’t want to be that guy who’s like, ‘OK, let’s go out tonight. Coach sucks. Don’t show up. You shoot 25 times a game; don’t listen to him.’ No. I won’t do that. I don’t need that. They don’t need that.”
At age 31, Batum figures to remain in a teaching role through the end of next season. He has another year left on his contract, and his $27.13MM salary makes him nearly impossible to trade. Although the Hornets appear headed to their fourth straight year out of the playoffs, Batum believes the young core will get there soon.
“This franchise has got a bright future,” he said, “but I don’t think I’ll be part of it.”
Willy Hernangomez played just 72 total minutes in the Hornets‘ first 40 games, but he has seen fairly regular playing time off the bench for the team over the last month. As Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer writes, head coach James Borrego attributes Hernangomez’s increased role in large part to his improved effort on the defensive end.
“The video and the numbers demonstrate to me that he’s making a bigger impact at that end of the floor than he has in the past,” Borrego said. “(He’s) challenging more shots at the rim.”
Hernangomez will be an unrestricted free agent at season’s end, and while his modest overall role may suggest he’s not in the Hornets’ future plans, he still has an opportunity to make a good final impression on the team over the last 20 games or so this season. Charlotte will also have plenty of cap flexibility moving forward if the club wants to re-sign him. For his part, the 25-year-old big man says he’s just happy to be getting the opportunity to show what he can do.
“You always want to play a lot of minutes, you always want to play in all the games, you want to help your team win,” Hernangomez said. “So in the beginning, it was a very disappointing season because we were losing and I could not help the team. But I think after the trade deadline, I got a new, fresh start.”
Here’s more on the Hornets:
- Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who spent seven-and-a-half seasons in Charlotte before being bought out last month, wrote a farewell letter to the city and Hornets fans at The Players’ Tribune. Kidd-Gilchrist, who said that “a true love affair developed between me and the city of Charlotte” after he was drafted second overall by the team in 2012, wrote that he’ll “always remember how good you all were to me” despite the Hornets’ lack of playoff success.
- Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer argues that the Hornets should seriously consider signing a veteran point guard to help ease the workload on Devonte’ Graham and Terry Rozier down the stretch. Joe Chealey, on a 10-day contract, is currently filling a backup role, but Bonnell makes the case that Charlotte could use a more experienced option — Chealey has appeared in just four career games.
- In case you missed it, Bismack Biyombo said earlier this week that he could have gotten a buyout from the Hornets after the deadline, but opted not to. Here’s our full story on that.