Hoops Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript: 3/19/2026
Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included the Lakers' hold on the No. 3 seed and their playoff chances, the reasons for the Rockets' offensive woes, the power struggle between the Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Hawks' options for a center upgrade, players to watch in March Madness and more!
What Will The Wizards’ Roster Look Like Next Season?
There was never any doubt that they wouldn't be, but the Wizards were formally eliminated from postseason contention when they lost on Thursday evening.
Washington has been -- by far -- the worst team in the NBA since the start of the 2023/24 season, posting an abysmal 49-181 (.213) record during that stretch. The next-worst team since the fall of 2023 is Utah, which has gone 68-163 (.294).
That said, there have been clear signs that the rebuilding Wizards don't want to be as bad in 2026/27 as they've been for the past three seasons.
With an eye toward the future, Washington used some of its financial flexibility this season to take buy-low swings on a pair of multi-time All-Stars. Trae Young has played pretty well in limited minutes, while Anthony Davis is still recovering from ligament damage in his left hand.
How aggressive will the Wizards be this summer to built out their roster around Young, Davis and their young core? And which players are definitively viewed as part of that core?
Hoops Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript: 3/12/2026
Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included draft options for the Bulls, a potential shakeup for the Timberwolves, the playoff race involving the East's top four teams, Bam Adebayo's 83-point game and more!
Looking Ahead To The Grizzlies’ Offseason
During the 2021/22 season, the Grizzlies tied a franchise record by winning 56 games en route to the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. They also advanced to the second round of the playoffs for just the fourth time in the team's 31-year existence, losing to the eventual champion Warriors in six games.
Ja Morant was named Most Improved Player that season, his third in the league, after averaging 27.4 points, 6.7 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 1.2 steals on .493/.344/.761 shooting. He was also named to the All-NBA Second Team.
Jaren Jackson Jr. finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting and was named to the All-Defensive First Team for the first time. Desmond Bane was coming off a second season in which he averaged 18.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.7 APG and 1.2 SPG while shooting 43.6% from three-point range.
The Grizzlies also had several key role players on that roster, including Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams, De'Anthony Melton, Kyle Anderson and Brandon Clarke. None of their top 10 rotation players were older than 28.
Unfortunately for fans of the team, the '21/22 campaign turned out to be the peak of the Morant/Jackson/Bane era. The team still won 51 games in '22/23, but things started to go off the rails in Memphis.
Two-Way Trends And Recapping The Buyout Market
In the wake of Wednesday's deadline for two-way signings, all 90 two-way contract slots around the NBA are now filled, with each team carrying three two-way players into the home stretch of the regular season.
Of those 90 players who are on two-way contracts, more than a third are on two-year contracts (the maximum allowable), which run through the 2026/27 season. By our count, 31 players are in that group, including many who have signed their two-way deals since the trade deadline.
The total number of players to finish a season on two-year, two-way contracts has been steadily increasing in recent years, with 23 players falling into that category in 2023/24 and 26 doing so in '24/25. But 31 would represent a new record.
It makes sense that a team would always prefer having two years of control of a player instead of one when there are no salary cap implications to worry about. At the start of a league year, when all 30 teams are vying for the best undrafted rookies on the market, front offices don't necessarily have the leverage required to get those players to accept multiyear deals. But it's a different story later in the season when there are a limited number of open two-way slots available for hundreds of G League players hoping to be called up.
But does it really give an organization a meaningful advantage to secure that extra year of team control for one or two of its two-way players, especially if it might mean settling for a lesser prospect who doesn't have the leverage to negotiate a rest-of-season contract?
Hoops Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript: 3/5/2026
Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included the Pistons' and Spurs' playoff chances, the Hornets' emergence as a contender in the East, Luguentz Dort's future with the Thunder, a potential Kawhi Leonard trade and more!
Hoops Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript: 2/26/2026
Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included potential buyout candidates, the Bulls' options following an active trade deadline, Jonathan Kuminga's future with the Hawks, a proposed tanking solution and more!
2026 NBA Free Agent Preview: Gui Santos
Jimmy Butler's ACL tear was a devastating blow to the Warriors' chances of making a deep playoff run. Key members of the team -- including Stephen Curry, general manger Mike Dunleavy Jr., head coach Steve Kerr and owner Joe Lacob -- have expressed cautious optimism about the remainder of the season while maintaining a pragmatic view of their expectations.
Butler is an outstanding player whose style (highly efficient inside the arc, draws a ton of fouls, high-IQ play-maker on both ends, low turnovers, doesn't want to shoot threes) is pretty unique, given the prevalence of outside shooting around the NBA. Obviously, it's extremely difficult to replace a player of his level of competitiveness, skill, talent, athleticism, and size.
Curry's own knee injury has further clouded Golden State's outlook. The Warriors are 23-16 in games the two-time MVP has played this season, but have gone 7-12 without their leading scorer.
While the sense of urgency in Golden State is understandably high given the ages of their stars, injuries also create opportunities. One of my favorite things about following the league is seeing unheralded players show they're capable of playing legitimate rotation roles when they're given real minutes.
One Warriors player fitting that bill as of late is Gui Santos, who will be a restricted free agent this summer.
How Starter Criteria Could Impact 2026 RFAs
A player who is eligible for restricted free agency doesn't become a restricted free agent by default. His team must issue him a qualifying offer to avoid having him become unrestricted.
The value of a qualifying offer - which is essentially a one-year contract offer that gives the player's original team the right of first refusal in the event he signs an offer sheet with a rival suitor - is determined by one or more factors, including the player's draft position, his previous salary, and/or his minimum salary. The player's role in the year or two leading up to his restricted free agency also plays an an important part in determining the amount of his qualifying offer.
If a player starts at least 41 games or logs at least 2,000 minutes in the season before he reaches restricted free agency - or averages 41 starts or 2,000 minutes during the two seasons prior to free agency - it increases the value of his qualifying offer, as we explain in more detail in a glossary entry.
While it's generally a good thing for a player if he meets this "starter criteria," doing so often doesn't have a major impact on his free agency, as we've noted in the past. For instance, if a restricted free agent is on track for a four-year, $120MM contract, it doesn't matter all that much if the value of his qualifying offer gets bumped from $6MM to $8MM, since it was always going to be just a placeholder anyway.
However, seeing the way that free agency played out for RFAs like Jonathan Kuminga, Quentin Grimes, and Cam Thomas a year ago provided a good reminder that changing the value of a player's qualifying offer can have a real impact on his contract negotiations.
Kuminga, for example, failed to meet the starter criteria, which reduced the amount of his qualifying offer from about $10.24MM to $7.98MM. If he'd been eligible for that higher QO, maybe Kuminga would've been more inclined to accept it rather than sign a two-year offer from the Warriors that required him to give up his trade veto power and add a second-year team option.
Grimes, meanwhile, did meet the starter criteria in 2024/25, which bumped the value of his qualifying offer from $6.31MM to $8.74MM. After unsuccessful contract negotiations with the Sixers, he ultimately signed that QO, giving him a de facto no-trade clause for '25/26 and lining him up to reach unrestricted free agency this summer. There's no guarantee Grimes would've made that same decision if his qualifying offer had been worth $2.43MM less -- in that scenario, maybe one of Philadelphia's multiyear offers would have looked more appealing.
As for Thomas, he fell short of the starter criteria due to repeated hamstring issues, resulting in a $5.99MM qualifying offer instead of one worth $8.74MM. He still ended up accepting it, but it's worth asking whether the Nets would have even put that higher QO on the table at all if Thomas had met the starter criteria, or if they would've let him become an unrestricted free agent last July. The contract offers Brooklyn made him before he signed the qualifying offer were reportedly very modest, and the team was willing to waive him outright earlier this month after not finding a trade for him at the deadline.
So which of this year's potential restricted free agents could be most impacted by the starter criteria in the same way that some of 2025's top RFAs were?
The Magic Will Face Some Difficult Decisions This Summer
The Magic have been one of the more disappointing teams in the NBA this season. Health issues -- including Wednesday's update that Franz Wagner will be out indefinitely due to his high left ankle sprain -- have certainly played a part in the team's mediocre 29-25 record. But it would be disingenuous to act as though injuries have been Orlando's only problem in 2025/26.
Even after Thursday's blowout victory over the Kings, who have now lost 15 straight games, the Magic's defensive rating has plummeted to No. 14 in the league after they ranked second and third in that category in the previous two seasons. And despite making a major offseason trade for an elite shooter in Desmond Bane, the team still ranks just 24th in three-pointers made, 23rd in three-point attempts, and 27th in three-point percentage.
Aside from injuries, the most concerning trend in Orlando may be the fact that this is the fourth consecutive season in which the Magic have been better when Paolo Banchero is off the court than when he's playing. That could be brushed aside for a young player -- he's only 23 -- but Orlando signed the former No. 1 overall pick to a rookie scale max extension last offseason. That deal is one reason why Orlando's payroll will become very expensive on July 1, when the new league year begins.