The NBA will be using its current lottery system for the eight – and possibly last – time this year. The format, instituted in 2019, smoothed out the odds for top picks, reducing the league’s worst team’s chance of getting the No. 1 selection from 25.0% to 14.0%.
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The changes had an immediate impact in 2019, when the Pelicans and Grizzlies were tied for the seventh-best lottery odds, but jumped up to No. 1 and 2, respectively, allowing them to land Zion Williamson and Ja Morant. The flattened format has paid off repeatedly for lower lottery teams in recent years, as the Hawks won the No. 1 pick with the 10th-best odds in 2024 and the Mavericks moved up to No. 1 with the 11th-best odds in 2025.
This year’s draft lottery will take place on Sunday, May 10.
With the help of data from Tankathon.com – which is worth checking out for all sorts of draft-related info – the draft lottery odds for 2026 are listed in the chart below.
The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Wizards‘ pick, for instance, has a 14% chance of becoming the No. 1 selection and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%. Odds are rounded to the nearest decimal place.
Here’s the full chart:
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| IND* | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| BKN | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| UTA | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11 | 7.5 | 27.1 | 17.9 | 2.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SAC | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11 | 2 | 18.2 | 25.5 | 8.5 | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | – |
| MEM | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.7 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
| NOP* | 6.8 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.9 | – | – | 19.8 | 35.6 | 13.8 | 1.4 | >0 | – | – | – |
| DAL | 6.7 | 7 | 7.4 | 7.8 | – | – | – | 32.9 | 31.1 | 6.6 | 0.4 | >0 | – | – |
| CHI | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | – | – | – | – | 50.8 | 25.9 | 3 | 0.1 | >0 | – |
| MIL* | 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 65.9 | 19 | 1.2 | >0 | >0 |
| GSW | 2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 77.6 | 12.6 | 0.4 | >0 |
| LAC* | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 86.1 | 6.7 | 0.1 |
| MIA | 1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 92.9 | 2.3 |
| CHA | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 97.6 |
Notes:
- The Pacers‘ pick will be sent to the Clippers if it lands outside the top four.
- The most favorable of the Pelicans‘ and Bucks‘ picks will be sent to the Hawks.
- The least favorable of the Pelicans‘ or Bucks‘ picks will end up with the Bucks.
- The Clippers‘ pick will be sent to the Thunder.
The full pre-lottery draft order can be viewed here.
Darn, I was hoping Utah lost the coin flip. I wanted to root for the 0.6% chance of their pick dropping to 9th and going to the Thunder. Oh well.
crossing fingers for top 4 for indy
god knows they deserve it
WE HAVE A CHANCE
may 10th my eyes will be glued to that lottery.