Extension Candidate: Derrick Favors
The Jazz invested heavily in Derrick Favors from the very start. The former No. 3 overall pick highlighted the package Utah received from the Nets for star point guard Deron Williams, so if then-GM Kevin O'Connor's surprise gambit at the 2011 trade deadline was going to work, Favors had to deliver. The Jazz have since bumped O'Connor up to executive VP of basketball operations, and he and new GM Dennis Lindsey executed a roster overhaul this summer that will give the team its first look at Favors as a full-time starter. Still, Favors and the Jazz have a major decision to make before the 22-year-old can take his place in the spotlight.
It's poor timing for both team and player that Favors has become eligible for an extension to his rookie-scale contract when he's yet to average as many as 24 minutes per game in any season. Utah doesn't get the chance to see whether Favors can handle being the team's first or second option on offense, and Favors hasn't had the opportunity to show what he can do in a marquee role. The Jazz could have at least afforded themselves a look at Favors as a starter for a couple of months if they had traded either Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap or both at the trade deadline. Yet if they had done that, they probably couldn't have wound up with two future first-round picks, as they did when they used cap space to absorb a couple of Golden State's regrettable contracts this summer. It's another example of the team's strategy of sacrificing the present for the future.
The decision whether to extend Favors will nonetheless have long-term consequences. As Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors explained this week, rookie-scale extensions often turn out to be bargains compared to the deals that restricted free agents get. Favors is likely to get a deal for four or five years either this summer or next, so inflated annual salaries could wind up costing the Jazz for years to come.
O'Connor and Lindsey could propose an extension similar to the four-year, $32MM deal that the Bulls gave Taj Gibson, another player who had primarily come off the bench, but Favors' reps at Perennial Sports & Entertainment would balk at that, since their client has much greater potential. The Favors camp may propose an arrangement closer to the roughly $49MM that Serge Ibaka is getting from the Thunder, but that figure is just as likely to elicit a "no" from the team.
I predicted in March that Favors and the Jazz would strike a deal worth $48MM for four years, and while that seems a little high now, especially since that's the kind of money Larry Sanders just got from the Bucks, I still think it's closer to reality than an extension similar to Gibson's would be. The case of Sanders is somewhat instructive here. He, like Favors, didn't see much playing time in his first two seasons in the league, but he blossomed into a Defensive Player of the Year candidate with starter's minutes last season. It's reasonable to expect that Favors is poised for a breakout, too. He's recorded a PER of 17.3 in his two full seasons with Utah, and in the same timeframe, he's displayed a knack for rebounding, grabbing 11.1 boards per 36 minutes.
The major question mark for Favors is his offense. He shot just 48.3% last season despite the majority of his attempts last season coming at the rim. That's largely because of his putrid 29.0% shooting from three feet and out, as Basketball-Reference shows. That's a mark that will have to get much better if he is to thrive in Utah's beloved pick-and-roll. His shooting percentage ticked up slightly with more a few more minutes and shot attempts per game after the All-Star break, but more drastic improvement is necessary.
There's no such concern on the defensive end of the floor. According to HoopData.com, Favors' blocks, steals and charges drawn per game add up to 2.53, a figure equivalent to the total posted by All-Defensive Second Team selection Paul George, who saw more than 15 extra minutes of playing time per night. Favors used his 7'4" wingspan to block 1.7 shots per game last season, good enough for 13th in the league despite his limited minutes.
So, it's not as if Favors doesn't have an NBA track record. He'll encounter something new this year in Utah, where instead of a contender for a playoff spot, the Jazz are set to field a team that will struggle to win 25 games. Defenses will pack the paint with Favors on the floor, and without much in the way of scoring talent around him, baskets will be hard to come by. Favors may never again play on a team that surrounds him with so little in the way of talent and experience, so this season might not provide the most accurate glimpse of his potential. That's why I think the Jazz and Favors might be best served to do a four-year extension for between $42MM and $44MM. Utah could wind up with a budding defensive stalwart and rebounder extraordinaire on the cheap, while Favors gets an eight-figure salary despite never having averaged 10 points per game. The most significant risk would be on Utah's side, but as the Nuggets showed when they re-signed Nene and quickly swapped his five-year, $65MM deal for JaVale McGee's expiring contract in 2012, there's almost always a team willing to take on a promising big man, no matter the price.
NBA GMs Discuss Offseason, CBA, Free Agency
Bob Myers, Dennis Lindsey, and Masai Ujiri are each relatively new to their current jobs, having taken over as their respective teams' general managers within the last 16 months. Myers, a former agent, now works in the Warriors front office, Lindsey is the GM of the Jazz, and Ujiri was hired earlier this summer as the head of basketball operations for the Raptors.
All three GMs have made interesting moves this offseason, with Myers and Lindsey completing a blockbuster three-team trade that sent multiple expiring contracts to Utah along with a few of Golden State's future draft picks. Meanwhile, Ujiri dealt former first overall pick Andrea Bargnani to the Knicks, and shored up Toronto's bench by signing Tyler Hansbrough and D.J. Augustin.
Myers, Lindsey, and Ujiri each spoke to Jimmy Spencer of Bleacher Report about the offseason and how the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement dictates what teams can and can't do. The entire piece is worth reading, but here are a few of the more interesting quotes from the three GMs:
Myers, on how team-building has changed within the last year or two:
"I think people are being more fiscally responsible and maybe a bit more conservative. Teams were not as aggressive on spending. The top-of-the-line free agents weren’t able to demand high-level compensation, though some of that middle class did get compensated as normal. Overall, though, I think a pretty decent portion was paid less than in the past."
Lindsey, on the effects of the league's new CBA:
"Whenever there is a new collective bargaining agreement in any league, teams, capologists or lawyers are trying to get their arms around the rules. Mechanically, what’s different on a micro level? On a macro level, certainly the tax system and aggressive penalties have come into play within teams’ long-term planning and short-term planning because of repeater tax issues. Many teams were anticipating a set of rules with the new CBA and did some real pre-CBA planning. It’s more than a one-year thing; several teams have planned for this."
Ujiri, on whether he feels like he knows the CBA inside and out:
"You try to study as much as you can. In my mind, I think I know it all, but you never do — that’s the truth. You keep trying to learn and learn, and to be honest, there is so much to learn. We also all try to figure out ways to gain advantages through the language of the CBA and going around it. I used to always ask [former Nuggets assistant GM] Pete D'Alessandro: 'Can we really do that? Call the NBA and ask, make sure we can really do that.' It always happens, we are all so happy in thinking we have gone around it, and all of the sudden you can’t."
Myers, on whether certain types of players were undervalued or overvalued this summer:
"It’s in the eye of the beholder like anything; this is an art as much as it is a science. I tried, personally, not to speculate and make knee-jerk reactions to free-agent signings. You don’t know, to be honest, whether it’s your own player or any player assigned to any team, how that contract is going to play out. I can tell you most of the time it’s going to be different than what you envisioned. Whether you are going to get a great deal or a less-than-great deal, you don’t know. There’s a human element to this. It’s hard to say what contracts are good or not; all you can do is make the best judgement call you can and try to be fiscally responsible."
James Johnson To Work Out For Three Teams
A free agent for the first time, James Johnson has yet to land a deal with an NBA team, but will look to make an impression in upcoming workouts with three clubs, according to Shams Charania of RealGM.com. Charania reports that Johnson will work out for the Spurs, Jazz, and Hawks in hopes of receiving a contract offer.
Johnson, 26, has spent time with the Bulls, Raptors, and Kings since making his NBA debut in 2009, averaging 6.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and a 12.4 PER in 219 career contests. Johnson's trade history is indicative of his slipping stock; a year and a half after being selected 16th overall by Chicago, the 6'9" forward was sent to Toronto for a first-round pick that landed at No. 28, then was eventually flipped to Sacramento for a 2014 second-rounder.
The Spurs, Jazz, and Hawks all currently have between 12 and 14 guaranteed contracts on their books for 2013/14, so there'd be room for Johnson to earn a roster spot on any of the three clubs, if he were to sign with one of them.
Odds & Ends: Sanders, Nets, Jazz, McCarty
Larry Sanders has a brand new deal with the Bucks that will make him the face of the franchise after the departures of Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings. However, he'll have to get accustomed to an entirely new system in Milwaukee this season, writes Yannis Koutroupis of HoopsWorld. Many are expecting a drop off from last season based off what the Bucks lost, but if Sanders can take another step forward, they could still be in the mix for a playoff spot. Here's more from around the Association..
- The Nets announced that they have finalized their coaching staff by hiring assistants John Welch, Joe Prunty, and Charles Klask. That brings the total staff count underneath coaching neophyte Jason Kidd to six.
- The Nets also announced that Doug Overton has been appointed as the head coach of their D-League affiliate, the Springfield Armor. Overton enjoyed a lengthy playing career that included two stints with the Nets.
- The Jazz announced that Justin Zanik will serve as an assistant GM. Utah GM Dennis Lindsey says that he's excited about being able to draw on the insight of a former agent, tweets Bill Oram of the Salt Lake Tribune.
- Walter McCarty confirmed to Jeff Goodman of ESPNBoston.com (on Twitter) that he'll be joining the Celtics staff as an assitant coach under Brad Stevens.
Extension Talks Ongoing For Favors, Hayward
The Jazz are one of six NBA teams with multiple players eligible for rookie-scale extensions this offseason, and Utah has begun discussing potential deals for both Derrick Favors and Gordon Hayward, according to GM Dennis Lindsey. Bill Oram of the Salt Lake Tribune tweets that Lindsey appeared on 1280 AM in Utah today and confirmed that extension talks for both players are ongoing.
According to Oram (via Twitter), Lindsey suggested that Utah's preference would be to extend Favors and Hayward this offseason, but the team is also comfortable with letting one or both guys play out the 2013/14 season. In that scenario, the market would dictate their value next summer, and the Jazz would still have the opportunity to match any rival offers. Given how little long-term money the club has on its books, matching an offer sheet wouldn't be an issue.
When Chuck Myron of Hoops Rumors took an early look at this year's extension candidates back in March, he predicted that Favors would receive a new long-term deal while Hayward would eventually hit restricted free agency. Because both players are entering the last year of their rookie-scale contracts, they'll have until October 31st to work something out with the Jazz.
Oram adds in a series of tweets that Lindsey also addressed a few other Utah-related topics during his radio appearance. The GM hinted that the Jazz may not end up using all the future draft picks they've acquired, and indicated that there should be an announcement about Justin Zanik's role in the front office coming soon. Lindsey also added that he hopes Raul Neto will be a long-time member of the Jazz — when I examined 2013's remaining unsigned draft picks yesterday, I noted that Neto is one of the second-rounders whose future is still up in the air.
Western Notes: Pekovic, Rockets, Zanik, Aldrich
One of the biggest names on this summer's free agent market finally came off the board today when Nikola Pekovic reached a five-year, $60MM agreement with the Timberwolves. The deal will make Pekovic the highest-paid restricted free agent of the offseason, by both overall value and annual salary. He also landed the third-highest overall guarantee, behind only Chris Paul and Dwight Howard. Here's more on Pekovic and other items from around the Western Conference:
- The new deal for Pekovic won't affect the Timberwolves' ability to keep Ricky Rubio or Kevin Love long-term, president Flip Saunders told reporters today, adding that the team views those three players as the franchise's cornerstones (Twitter links via T-Wolves PR). Saunders also confirmed that Pek's contract doesn't include any team or player options, tweets Jerry Zgoda of the Star Tribune.
- About 15 months before they ultimately landed Howard, the Rockets reached a tentative agreement to acquire the All-Star center from the Magic at 2012's trade deadline, according to Ken Berger of CBSSports.com. Orlando planned to move D12 at the deadline if he didn't waive his early termination option, and had offers from the Rockets and Nets — Magic officials preferred Houston's offer, says Berger.
- Agent Justin Zanik, who has worked with Andy Miller at ASM Sports in recent years, is set to join the Jazz front office as the team's assistant GM, reports Jeff Goodman of CBSSports.com (Twitter links). Jody Genessy of the Deseret News has a few more details on the hiring of Zanik, who represented NBA players such as Omer Asik, Timofey Mozgov, and Sergey Karasev.
- Cole Aldrich worked out for Sacramento on Monday, according to Jonathan Santiago and James Ham of Cowbell Kingdom. The Kings have an open roster spot, though it's interesting that they'd need to work out Aldrich, considering they got an extended look at the big man last year after acquiring him at the trade deadline.
Bobcats Rumors: Jefferson, Roster, Trades
Zach Lowe's latest column for Grantland.com focuses on the Bobcats, and the efforts the team is making to move toward playoff contention. As Lowe notes, it's hard to see how the current players and assets held by the Bobcats point to a future as a 55-win team, but that's not necessarily every club's number one goal. For Charlotte, the short-term goal is returning to respectability, and the team feels like signing Al Jefferson this offseason is a step in the right direction. Here are a few of the most interesting tidbits from Lowe's piece:
- The Bobcats considered sitting on some of their cap room, like the Sixers have done, or using it to absorb salaries and gain assets, like the Jazz did, but ultimately decided to spend it on Jefferson. "Of course, we had discussions about those options," said team president Rod Higgins. "We could have just sat on that money. But we've had a lot of losses over the last two years. We've gotten to the point now where we just want to compete. We have to send that message to our fans."
- Jefferson didn't meet with any other teams in free agency besides the Bobcats and Jazz. Utah told Jefferson on July 1st that they weren't interested in re-signing him, which came as no surprise. "I told my teammates all season, 'Utah would be a fool to bring me back, with Enes [Kanter] and Derrick [Favors]," Jefferson said.
- The Jazz did offer to sign-and-trade Jefferson to a team that didn't have room to sign him outright, but the big man was quickly sold on the Bobcats' pitch.
- Lowe suggests that moving Kemba Walker in a Jrue Holiday-esque deal for a 2014 first-rounder could benefit the Bobcats, but the team doesn't appear to be seriously mulling that kind of move. Still, Higgins isn't ruling anything out, telling Lowe, "If there are opportunities to make this team better via trade, we will do that."
- Higgins also denied that the Bobcats ever seriously discussed trading 2012's No. 2 pick (which became Michael Kidd-Gilchrist) in a deal for James Harden.
- Lowe points out that, since none of the Bobcats' young players like Walker, Kidd-Gilchrist, Gerald Henderson, Cody Zeller, and Bismack Biyombo project as franchise guys, the team should have the flexibility to keep most or all of them long-term. That could put the club on a path similar to the Nuggets, who put together a collection of solid players worth between $6-11MM since moving Carmelo Anthony.
- According to Lowe, executives around the league still aren't sure who makes the final calls on basketball decisions in Charlotte, with owner Michael Jordan, GM Rich Cho, and Higgins all involved in the process.
Odds & Ends: Union, Lucas, Draft, Brown
With the offseason winding down, Alex Kennedy of HoopsWorld identified who the real contenders will be in 2013/14. The back-to-back champion Heat top the list with some of the other usual suspects, including the Spurs and Thunder. The Bulls should be vaulted back into contention with the long-awaited return of Derrick Rose. The Clippers are a bona fide contender after re-signing Chris Paul, landing Doc Rivers as coach, and adding J.J. Redick. The Nets, who now boast the most expensive roster in the NBA by far, hope to be among the league's elite with first-time coach Jason Kidd at the helm. And of course, the Rockets will be one of the most intriguing teams to keep an eye on after luring Dwight Howard away from L.A. Here's more from around the Association..
- NBPA executive committee member Jerry Stackhouse told Ken Berger of CBSSports.com that LeBron James' comments about the union felt like a "kick in the stomach". "I don't think he's had any dialogue with anybody since the All-Star break, but it is what it is," Stackhouse said. "To make that statement about where we are as a union right now, he was misinformed."
- Point guard John Lucas III was a safe choice for the Jazz, in the sense that he won't threaten Trey Burke or expect to be the main one-guard for the long-term. However, Utah believes they have more than a capable stop-gap and more than a positive locker room influence in the veteran, writes Bill Oram of the Salt Lake Tribune.
- Chad Ford of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd) runs down the 2014 NBA Draft and notes that its remarkable depth could make it the best ever. Ford's latest big board has Andrew Wiggins at the top, followed by Kentucky's Julius Randle, Australian Dante Exum, Duke's Jabari Parker, and Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart.
- Sean Deveney of the Sporting News gives his immediate and long-term outlook for the league's 13 new coaches. The list starts with the latest hire, 76ers coach Brett Brown.
- Jordan Hill's summer assignment is to become the stretch four that the Lakers need, writes Dave McMenamin of ESPNLosAngeles.com. Hill missed 53 games last year, mostly because of back and hip trouble.
Northwest Notes: Nuggets, T’Wolves, Brown, Curry
Flip Saunders is the leading man in the Timberwolves' front office, but he's searching for two executives to help assist him in day-to-day operations. This morning, we learned that Wizards vice president of player personnel Milt Newton sat down with the T'Wolves to formally interview for the GM position while they could also promote former Raptors GM Rob Babcock from within. Here's the latest out of the Northwest Division..
- The Northwest Division is the best example this offseason of the cyclical nature of the league, writes Royce Young of CBSSports.com. The Nuggets have slipped after losing their GM and failing to re-sign their top offseason target in Andre Iguodala. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves could take the divisional crown after making a few shrewd moves and getting Kevin Love back.
- Bobby Brown has until August 15th to exercise his opt out clause with China's DongGuan Leopards and AJ Mitnick of Sheridan Hoops sees the Jazz as a good fit for the lighting quick point guard. Brown averaged 18.3 PPG in Euroleague last year and improved greatly as a true one-guard.
- Seth Curry says that Timberwolves are among the teams that have extended a training camp invitation to him, writes Mark Berman of The Roanoke Times. The Warriors, Spurs, and Bobcats have also invited the undrafted Duke guard to camp.
- Earlier today, we looked at the latest on the Thunder.
Several Teams In Mix For Anthony Tolliver
FRIDAY, 2:58pm: Rather than narrowing down his list of suitors, Tolliver seems to be heading in the other direction. The Magic, Spurs, and Knicks are also interested in him, according to Tomasson (via Twitter). Still, Tolliver expects to make a decision next week.
THURSDAY, 3:16pm: The Lakers have entered the mix for Tolliver, writes Chris Tomasson of FOX Sports Florida (via Sulia). According to Tolliver, talks with the Lakers are still preliminary, but he's considering them alongside the Bobcats, Bulls, and Jazz. Tolliver added that he visited Charlotte on Monday and the team made him a minimum-salary contract offer.
WEDNESDAY, 1:08pm: Anthony Tolliver has narrowed his free agent decision down to three teams, and is expected to finalize a deal this weekend, according to Jorge Sierra of HoopsHype. Sierra reports that Tolliver will likely sign with either the Bobcats, Bulls, or Jazz.
Tolliver, 28, spent the 2012/13 season with the Hawks, averaging 4.1 PPG and 2.5 RPG in 62 contests (15.5 MPG). The last report we heard on Tolliver came nearly a month ago, and suggested that the 6'8" forward was in talks with five teams, including Atlanta.
Utah still has a little cap space left, along with its room exception, but Charlotte and Chicago appear to be capped out. As such, it looks like Tolliver will sign another minimum-salary deal, unless the Jazz outbid the other two finalists.