The NBA will be using its revamped lottery format for a third time this year. The new format, instituted in 2019, smoothed out the odds for top picks, reducing the league’s worst team’s chance of getting the No. 1 selection from 25.0% to 14.0%.
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The new format has had an immediate impact. In 2019, the Pelicans and Grizzlies were tied for the seventh-best lottery odds, but jumped up to No. 1 and 2, respectively, allowing them to land Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.
The shakeup in 2020 wasn’t quite as drastic, but the Bulls and Hornets landed picks in the top four despite entering lottery night with the seventh- and eighth-best odds, respectively. That stroke of luck significantly changed the direction of the franchise in Charlotte, where the Hornets were able to land LaMelo Ball with the No. 3 pick.
With the help of data from Tankathon.com – which is worth checking out for all sorts of draft-related info – the draft lottery odds for 2021 are listed in the chart below.
The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Rockets‘ pick, for instance, has a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.
Here’s the full chart:
- The Rockets‘ pick will be sent to the Thunder (in exchange for the No. 18 pick) if it lands at No. 5.
- The Timberwolves‘ pick will be sent to the Warriors if it lands outside of the top three.
- The Bulls‘ pick will be sent to the Magic if it lands outside of the top four.
The full pre-lottery draft order for 2021 can be found right here.