No second-round series in the this year’s NBA playoffs is viewed as more one-sided than Celtics vs. Cavaliers. Ahead of Game 1 on Tuesday, betting site BetOnline.ag has made Boston a -2000 favorite to advance, listing Cleveland at +1000 to pull off the upset.
Based on what we’ve seen this season from Boston, those odds don’t come as a major surprise. At 64-18, the Celtics won seven more games than any other team in the NBA and 14 more than any Eastern Conference rival. They put up the third-best net rating in NBA history (+11.7), finishing with the league’s top offensive rating (122.2) and second-best defensive rating (110.6).
In Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Kristaps Porzingis, the Celtics have a starting lineup full of two-way impact players, with no weak links on either end of the floor. And while they’re not exactly loaded with depth, the first few players off their bench – Al Horford, Payton Pritchard, and Sam Hauser – all made positive contributions this season.
The Celtics experienced a minor hiccup in round one, losing Game 2 at home to a Miami team that was missing star forward Jimmy Butler, but they bounced back admirably with dominant victories in Games 3, 4, and 5, holding the Heat to between 84 and 88 points in each of those contests to close out the series in convincing fashion.
The Cavaliers, on the other hand, had a middle-of-the-pack net rating this season (their +2.5 mark ranked 12th in the league), and their 48-34 record was buoyed by 17-1 run in January and February. They went 13-18 to close the regular season and then needed seven games to get past an Orlando team that outscored them overall.
Donovan Mitchell was excellent in that first-round series, averaging 28.7 points per game, but he’s still dealing with a leg injury and the Cavs struggled to get much secondary offense going against the Magic, with Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Caris LeVert, and Max Strus all scoring well below their regular season averages.
It doesn’t help matters that the team has been missing starting center Jarrett Allen, who has been out for the last three games due to a rib contusion, and Dean Wade, a rotation forward who likely would have been playing regular minutes in the playoffs.
On paper, it looks like a one-sided matchup, but there are a few arguments against penciling in the Celtics for a sweep. For one, they’re missing Porzingis, who may remain on the shelf for the entire second round while he recovers from a calf strain. They can slot Horford into Porzingis’ starting spot, but he’s not as dynamic an offensive player, and it will mean relying more on reserves who barely played in the first round, such as Luke Kornet and Xavier Tillman.
The Cavaliers also played the Celtics competitively during the regular season, with all three games between the two teams decided by single-digits. Cleveland lost a pair of contests in Boston, but beat the C’s at home in March. That victory should give the Cavs a little confidence entering Game 1, as should the fact that they were able to get a monkey off their back by winning a playoff series this spring after a disappointing showing in 2023 — that could remove some pressure entering round two.
The Celtics have their own playoff demons to reckon with. They lost the Eastern Conference finals to the Heat last spring as heavy favorites and are in championship-or-bust mode this year after falling short with rosters led by Tatum and Brown for the past several seasons. A second-round loss would be a disaster for the franchise, so if they hit another snag like they did in Game 2 vs. Miami last round, they’ll have to respond like they did against the Heat and not let the Cavs start to get comfortable.
We want to know what you think. Will the Celtics have any problems against the Cavs or do you expect Boston to advance without too much trouble? Is there any chance of a Cleveland upset? Are the Celtics bound for the NBA Finals?
Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts and predictions!
Boston in 5.
If the Cavs are healthy, we have a chance. The Celtics are the favorites for a reason, but we’re one of the teams best equipped to deal with the way they play offense between Allen, Mobley, and Okoro, plus Mitchell’s ability to completely disrupt passing lanes. It’s going to come down to whether they can shut us down on defense, because they won’t get massive scoring opportunities. We don’t dominate on offense, so that’s the key for both squads. Which team can lock in more effectively to counter their opponents’ tactics.
I’d say 70/30 in favor of the Celtics. Might be my Cavs Fan bias, but I believe in this squad in this matchup. Won’t be a walk-over, either way.
I’m with you but it may be because I’m a Jazz fan and my bias towards Donovan Mitchell.
Yeah. If there’s anything the Cavs can do that will give them an edge, it’s vary the lineups/looks they throw at the Celtics on offense. Mixing and matching, particularly when they don’t have much of a bench, might give them an edge. Certainly did in the win in the regular season.
That was a lot of talking up the Cavs just to say you’re picking the Celtics.
Eon is thorough . Supposedly a Cavs fan ??
Allen is key. Celtics will need Kornet to give good mins. No KP, I see a tough series.
You saw a tough series against the Heat also.
Cav’s don’t worry me much.
Knicks do a little
BOS’s playoff issues with this group will never completely go away, at least until they win a championship. But they can’t worry about them generally, just need to be vigilant in responding when they surface, like they did after Game 2 against MIA this year. Game to game. For tonight, they can’t let the real issue of KP-6’s injury matter more than it has to.
Now that CLE has avoided a first round loss to ORL, I think they’re playing with house money, and that makes them a dangerous team. Particularly against a BOS team that carries a dual expectation, that they’ll win, and that they might implode. Short of BOS imploding, I don’t see a scenario where CLE can win the series. However, that’s not out of the question, and the odds of that go up if CLE can win Game 1 in BOS. Even better if they can steal it at the end.
From the beginning……. I had Celtics/Bucks vs Nuggets. Bucks out, Nuggets may be on their way out. And Celtics without KP this series. Could be following them out.
I like an Allen playing, Cavs team. This Cavs team can win it. I think they got the nerves out against Magic. I expect a good series.
The Celtics will win easily if 1. They play as a team with at least 60% of their baskets coming off assists. 2. Mazzulla uses his bench, and doesn’t try to get 40 minutes out of all five starters. 3. Jason Tatum and Jaylen don’t take 55% of the team’s shots like they did in game 2 against Miami. 4. They continue to play team ball through the end of the 4th quarter.
Admittedly haven’t watched a lot of Cavs but is Porzingis being out really an issue? All season he’s been a bonus guy and is there to compete with the likes of Denver/Minnesota bigs.
Cleveland has more than competent bigs, but D. White plays above his size and Celtics can score a lot with a small lineup.
Celtics in 4
The Celtics struggled against the Cavs every time they’ve faced off even with a healthy Porzingis, so yes. It was the same story last year, without Porzingis. The Cavs are one of the teams best equipped to deal with the Celtics either way.
Yeah but everyone got better and they have Jrue Holiday now
But you’re picking the Celtics.
Porzingis was important cog all year. He posted up in 4th quarters, clutch time, closed games. He is one of our best three point shooters and shoots from way out opening the floor. He makes lots of blocks so opponents hesitate driving. But yes, we hope to overcome KP’s big loss since we have ‘Playoff Al’ to step in. Go Celtics!
BOS sweeps CLE
Celtics will need Kornet and Al. I expect Mobley and Allen to have a good series. They are key to Cavs winning imo.
Let’s Go Cavs …….,,
Haha.
Yeah. Lets go.
Miss Allen …..
They do. Kornet 8 boards and 2 blocks in 12 minutes is just silly.
Luke Kornet is way undervalued. Just look how’s he’s in the right spots under the boards and keeps the ball moving and he screens. Go Luke!
He’s bulked up. He can bang down low now. He’s solid.
How many offensive boards? Changes or forces difficult shots when sending them back also. Celts energy guys like Kornet, Payton, Hauser have come along way.