As we explained on Monday following the conclusion of the NBA’s 2024/25 regular season, the results of the play-in tournament helped move the lottery standings and the 2025 draft order one step closer to being officially set.
Here’s what we know now…
Lottery teams
Because No. 10 Miami made it through the play-in tournament and earned a playoff spot in the East, the lottery teams (and odds) are slightly different from the ones we projected on Monday.
The Magic and Heat claimed the East’s final two playoff spots and will face Boston and Cleveland, respectively, in round one of the postseason. The Warriors and Grizzlies locked up the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds in the West, lining up first-round dates with Houston and Oklahoma City, respectively.
As a result, the tentative lottery standings are as follows, per Tankathon:
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTH | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| WSH | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CHA | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| NOP | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.8 | 2.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PHI* | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | – |
| BKN | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.7 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
| TOR | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | – | – | 19.7 | 34.1 | 12.9 | 1.3 | >0 | – | – | – |
| SAS | 6 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | – | – | – | 34.5 | 32.0 | 6.8 | 0.4 | >0 | – | – |
| PHX* | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.9 | – | – | – | – | 50.7 | 28.3 | 3.5 | 0.1 | >0 | – |
| POR | 3.7 | 4 | 4.4 | 4.8 | – | – | – | – | – | 63.4 | 18.5 | 1.2 | >0 | >0 |
| DAL | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 77.6 | 13.5 | 0.5 | >0 |
| CHI | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 85.2 | 6.6 | 0.1 |
| SAC* | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 92.9 | 3.3 |
| ATL* | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 96.6 |
(* Asterisks denote traded picks)
- The Sixers‘ pick will be sent to the Thunder if it’s outside the top six.
- The Suns‘ pick will be sent to the Rockets.
- The Kings‘ pick will be sent to the Hawks if it’s outside the top 12.
- The Hawks‘ pick will be sent to the Spurs.
Multiple tiebreakers will still be required before the pre-lottery draft order is locked in, since three pairs of lottery teams finished the regular season with identical records.
The teams listed above in italics were tied, so the following spots in the chart could still be flipped, pending the results of random tiebreakers:
- Phoenix Suns / Portland Trail Blazers (36-46)
- Dallas Mavericks / Chicago Bulls (39-43)
- Sacramento Kings / Atlanta Hawks (40-42)
For instance, if the Trail Blazers win their tiebreaker with the Suns, they’ll be the team that has about a 50/50 chance at the No. 9 pick in the lottery, whereas the Suns’ pick (controlled by the Rockets) would become far more likely to end up at No. 10 or 11.
Lottery teams that ended up with identical regular season records essentially have the same odds at a top-four pick as one another, though the clubs that win the tiebreakers will get one extra ping-pong ball combination at No. 9, No. 11, and No. 13.
Traded first-round picks
The play-in results also provided some clarity on certain first-round picks that were traded with protections.
Crucially, as we outlined earlier tonight, the fact that the Heat and Grizzlies made the playoffs on Friday means they’ll both give up their 2025 first-round picks, which were top-14 protected and will now land outside of that range. Miami will send the No. 15 overall pick to the Thunder, while Memphis will send either the No. 18, 19, or 20 pick (depending on the results of a Monday tiebreaker) to the Wizards.
Because the Warriors made it through the play-in tournament earlier in the week, their pick at No. 18, 19, or 20 will be conveyed to the Heat.
The Spurs, who control the Hawks‘ first-round pick, will now have a second lottery selection in addition to their own by virtue of Atlanta losing two consecutive play-in games and missing the playoffs. That pick will almost certainly end up at No. 13 or 14, depending on the results of Monday’s tiebreaker. There’s a very slim chance it could move into the top four.
The Hawks lucked out on Friday when the Grizzlies defended their home court and eliminated Dallas from the postseason. If the Mavericks had pulled out a win, Memphis would’ve entered the lottery as the No. 14 team in the lottery standings and could’ve pushed Sacramento up to No. 12, depending on the results of a Monday tiebreaker. The Kings will send their pick to the Hawks if it lands outside the top 12, which is highly likely to happen now that Sacramento will be at either No. 13 or 14 entering the lottery.
Playoff teams
Based on the play-in results, the draft order outside of the lottery will be as follows, pending tiebreakers:
- Oklahoma City Thunder (from Heat)
- Orlando Magic
- Minnesota Timberwolves (from Pistons)
- Washington Wizards (from Grizzlies) / Miami Heat (from Warriors) / Brooklyn Nets (from Bucks)
- Note: A random tiebreaker will determine the order from Nos. 18-20.
- Utah Jazz (from Timberwolves)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (from Clippers) / Indiana Pacers / Orlando Magic (from Nuggets) / Atlanta Hawks (from Lakers)
- Note: A random tiebreaker will determine the order from Nos. 22-25.
- Brooklyn Nets (from Knicks)
- Brooklyn Nets (from Rockets)
- Boston Celtics
- Phoenix Suns (from Cavaliers)
- Los Angeles Clippers (from Thunder)
The random tiebreakers for draft positioning will be conducted on Monday afternoon at 3:00 pm Eastern time, per Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press (Twitter link).
Once those tiebreakers are completed, we’ll publish a full pre-lottery order for both rounds of the 2025 draft.
Dallas should’ve just tanked.
From the outside, yeah and in hindsight, yeah that’s a good call, but they have too many veterans on that team and what would tanking do?
They’d have the same roster next year as they do tonight so if you’re tanking now in the hopes of next year, what would be different?
It’s the same team plus a rookie with say the 15th pic or whatever. There’s no guarantee of making a playoffs while playing in in the west so if they’re in the game, they have to go for it.
The only thing that may be different next spring is you have a recovering Kyrie Irving, But he may not help as much as we think only 12 months removed from his ACL surgery.
So what does Dallas do this summer? A tanking team would break it all down right?
I don’t think Dallas does that or they wouldn’t have traded for Anthony Davis. I believe “they” think they’re good enough to compete for a championship.
Not many agree with them, but that’s their mindset.
All that to say, I don’t think tanking the last couple of weeks of the season was on their radar.
I mean, they or less has no choice but to play the few guys they had available for about half of their post-deadline games. And once the likes of Davis and Gafford got healthy, the only teams they had a chance to surpass in the lottery standings were SAS, Phoenix, and Portland, had they tanked.
At that point, I think for the sake of team morale, it’s better to just go for it
Why?
Dang, Brooklyn be racking up those first rounders…
I don’t understand the heat going hard just to get wrecked by Cleveland and no draft pick in the aftermath of the Butler trade. Three things with this story. I have a feeling mavs will be cursed cause of Nico who knows he may have put a curse on them. Secondly I see sixers getting like the 9th pick. Lastly I see the lottery odds as follows:
#1 pick-pels or raps (guarantees Zion is gone)( if raps get Flagg, Scottie and Quickley should be traded)
#2 raps (Quickley should be traded as Harper has more upside)
#3 hornets
#4 nets
#5 spurs
#6 jazz
#7 wiz
#8 jazz
#9 sixers
#10 blazers
#11 bulls
#12 mavs