By blowing out Denver on Sunday in the lone Game 7 of the NBA postseason’s second round, Oklahoma City set up a showdown of Northwest rivals in the 2025 Western Conference Finals.
The Timberwolves went just 49-33 during the regular season, which was the 10th-best record in the league and was barely enough to earn a guaranteed playoff spot in the West — Minnesota moved into the conference’s No. 6 seed on the last day of the season. But the Wolves have looked more dangerous in the postseason than their regular season record would suggest, winning 10 of 12 games against star-studded Lakers and Warriors teams in the first two rounds.
Skeptics will argue that the Lakers were still adjusting to a midseason revamping of their roster and that the Warriors would’ve been a far more formidable opponent if Stephen Curry hadn’t strained his hamstring in Game 1 of the second round. Still, the Wolves beat the teams in front of them and looked good doing it — their 114.6 postseason offensive rating ranks fifth among 16 playoff teams, while their 106.8 defensive rating is second-best.
Anthony Edwards has proven to be an effective postseason closer, averaging 26.5 points per game in the first two rounds, while Julius Randle (23.9 PPG, 5.9 APG) has played some of his best basketball of the season in the playoffs.
Rudy Gobert wasn’t part of the Defensive Player of the Year conversation this year, but he has shown against L.A. and Golden State that he still deserves to be considered one of the league’s best rim protectors and defensive anchors. And the Wolves are getting necessary contributions from the rest of their eight-man rotation too, including Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, Mike Conley, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Still, Minnesota will enter the Western Finals as a significant underdog against the 68-14 Thunder. Despite the fact that it took Oklahoma City seven games to finish off Denver in round two, oddsmakers and bettors love the club’s chances of advancing to the NBA Finals — BetOnline.ag currently OKC listed as a -355 favorite.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the way for Oklahoma City and has found his rhythm this spring following an up-and-down start to the postseason. After making just 18-of-68 shots from the field (26.5%) in his first three games against Memphis, Gilgeous-Alexander has put up 30.8 points per contest on 53.1% shooting in his last eight outings.
Jalen Williams (19.6 PPG on .440/.254/.750 shooting) hasn’t been as effective in the playoffs as he was in the regular season, but the Thunder’s depth has more than made up for it. Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso, Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Cason Wallace, and Isaiah Joe have all appeared in each of OKC’s 11 playoff contests and are averaging between 5.3 and 15.7 points per game.
The defense that ranked No. 1 in the NBA during the regular season hasn’t let up in the postseason either. The Thunder had the best first-round defensive rating (97.6) out of 16 teams and ranked first among eight clubs in the second round with a 103.9 mark. And even though it took seven games to get past Denver, Oklahoma City had the best second-round net rating (+9.9) of any team, outscoring the Nuggets by 64 points in the series.
Even though the Thunder finished 19 games ahead of the Timberwolves in the regular season standings and will have home-court advantage, this series could be a very competitive one. The two teams split their four regular season matchups this season, with one of those games going into overtime and two more decided by single digits. And the Timberwolves probably hold the slight edge in postseason experience, having been in the Western Finals last spring too.
We want to know what you think. Who will win this series and represent the Western Conference in the 2025 NBA Finals? Are you counting on the Thunder to come through or do you think the Wolves will pull off the upset? How many games do you figure it’ll take?
Vote in our poll and head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!
Thunder in six.
The Thunder defense is best known for forcing turnovers, but it was also the best rim protection defense
Can the Wolves wear Thunder down?
Wolves have tons of energy because they beat the Warriors in 5
Just my opinions, you don’t have to agree with me.
If everyone is fully healthy (and not tired)
In West, 5 teams are better than Knicks and Pacers
Thunder
Wolves
Nuggets
Clippers
Warriors
Clippers are underachieved
Clippers were supposed to be in the nba Finals if they were in East
A healthy Curry, and or better shooting, and the Warriors could have gone to the WCF. Will the Thunder be tired after playing the Nuggets? OKC seems a sure bet.
Yup, and if your Aunt had balls she’d be your uncle
Your Aunt has balls? The Warriors were offensively challenged. Do you really believe that the T-wolves will shoot 50% on 3 pointers again? The Warriors shot below 30%. Will they be able to hold a full strength Thunder team below 30%? I highly doubt that.
When does the Crying stop ….. lol
link to youtu.be
MLB has started …. go cry there
What am I crying about? You have to admit that the Warriors weren’t exactly a strong team. A couple of those games could easily gone the Dubs way. OKC is going to be a much tougher opponent. The T-wolves need to play much better.
if the warriors had won four games before the wolves did, they’d be in the WCF!
The T-wolves didn’t blow out a Warriors team that was struggling offensively. Do you really believe that the Thunder are struggling?
I’d say the T-Wolves “blew out” the Warriors after losing game 1.
Every loss was close until the Warriors collapsed from lack of depth and fatigue. But it ended in 4 straight losses by significant margin.
That’s a blow-out.
Time after time, you fail to acknowledge that the Wolves didn’t blow the Warriors out because they took the foot off the gas. A win by 25 or a win by 7 is still a win. The 117-110 win is the prime example. Minnesota could have won that game by 30 but Ant played 2 min in the 4th and Randle played 4.
The Wolves didnt need to go 100% against a Curry-less GS team and they didn’t.
Playoffs
Both Pacers and Wolves are the most successful in the nba history?
Last season
Pacers won 47 games in Regular season – go to Conference Finals
Wolves won 56 games in Regular season – go to Conference Finals
This season
Pacers won 50 games in Regular season – go to Conference Finals
Wolves won 49 games in Regular season – go to Conference Finals
Pacers average 48.5 wins
Wolves average 52.5 wins
If one of Thunder starters is injured,
49-win Wolves win the championship this year
I have Thunder in 6, but probably will go 7. OKC and Wolves have similar rosters with great young 2 guards, and size and coaching. I personally like OKC’s bench a little more than Wolves. Ability to throw Dort/Shai/AC/Wallace at Edwards will be fun to watch. Both teams are coached well. It’ll be a great series but I think OKC shows up. I had OKC winning the West at the start of the playoffs so I’m not changing my tune.
FWIW, it’s about 85%-15% for OKC when modeled statistically.
It’ll be about 92%-8% for OKC against the Knicks or Indy.
I think that it’s very clear here which team will move on. That’s the Minnesota Timberwolves. I’m not sure how everyone can’t see this.
Again for the umpteenth time, Oklahoma City is way too SGA reliant.
Yes they have the other talented players, but they don’t have another “Him.”
If you lock up SGA, which I admit is difficult to say the least, you will have OKC on its heels. They won’t know what to do with their leader under wraps.
I think this is clearly a no-brainer.
Im with you, haven’t been overly impressed by OKC
How long does it take before SGA doesnt gets every call and gets called for nothing on the other end where he fouls at an incredible rate
I dont think Ive ever seen a more tilted whistle for any player in the league ever
I think Brunson gets the friendliest whistles and on the defensive end the friendliest non whistles….
@ GaryRSW
OKC was 19 games better than the Wolves in the reg season. They were 31-10 vs .500 and above teams while the Wolves were 19-21.
The Wolves are more “Ant reliant” (39.9 min/gm in the playoffs) than OKC is “SGA reliant” (36.6 min/gm).
OKC has 10 players that have played in every playoff game to the Wolves’ 8.
But the biggest advantage the Thunder have is they play Holmgren and Hartenstein. After playing 2 teams with no bigs so far, that’s going to be a shock for Randle.
IMO the Thunder will win in 5.
I like it NBA is OK, and you’re not wrong. But I would bet the farm against the thunder in this series.
I think Randle’s offense will more than match IHart’s contributions. Chet will be neutralized by Rudy, Who’s pretty mobile in his own right. He surprises me.
Yes, Anthony Edwards is pretty domineering, but the wolves have some guys that can take the ball and score it without needing help.
They can get their own bucket and it’s not on a fast break from the wing like half of the guys on the thunder.
Yes Jalen Williams has had some nice games, but he will also just as likely have some poor games.
Great player mind you but he’s not a guy who will make your team better. He has talent, but he’s not a leader yet. He’s a rich man’s Jalen Green as a matter of fact.
Gary,
This series will be the 1st time in the playoffs that Randle has faced a tall defender who wasn’t 40.
It’s far more likely that Chet will neutralize Rudy than the other way around, since Chet shoots almost 5 threes/gm so Gobert will have to come out of the paint – which will open things up for SGA and JDub’s drives.
Reid is the only Wolve that’s shot 40% from three in the playoffs, so you know the Thunder defense will key on him. And the combination of (constantly fouling) Dort and Caruso on Edwards will frustrate him.
OKC’s depth and pace will be the difference.
Thinking about it further, and the things you pointed out NBA OK, which are very accurate, leads me to believe Rudy will be defending IHart to keep him in the lane.
He won’t be floating around the perimeter chasing Chet. That’ll be Randle‘s job to elbow him and frustrate him and Chet will be neutralized a lot better now that I’m second-guessing the matchups I mistakenly assigned earlier.
This leads me to be even more convicted that the wolves will come out ahead.
@GaryRSW
Randle proved me wrong, he was the only starter to show up (although McDaniels’ foul trouble was a key).
Chet and IHart combined for 27/12/3 with 2 steals and 2 blocks.
Gobert and Reid had 6/11/5 1 steal 2 blocks shooting 2-14.
OKC +30 in the 2nd half, Ant a non-factor. Like I said, looks like Thunder in 5.
Not gonna happen. The key indicator will be game three.
Did you hear when the announcers said that teams that win game 1 are 16-1 in the WCF this century?
Wolves can’t wait for game 3…
I thought we already talked about statistics and how they’re unreliable.., and Vegas and Ferraris?
You talked about those things, which was a bit odd as an analogy, but who am I to judge?
The only question is what can the Wolves do to adjust to OKC’s defense. One would hope that the bad shooters taking less threes would be a start, and when you have a hot hand like Randle a priority should be to keep getting him shots. his only getting 1 fga in the 3rd Q was basketball malpractice.
> Oklahoma City is way too SGA reliant.
> Yes they have the other talented players, but they don’t have another “Him.”
Counterpoint: history shows that SUPERSTARS WIN CHAMPIONSHIPS, and that balanced teams don’t. The deeper you get into the playoffs, the greater the odds that Michael, Kobe, LeBron, Steph, and Jokic win.
SGA is by far the best player remaining on the 4 teams in the playoffs. That’s a good thing. Especially when you consider that OKC is by far the deepest and best defensive team in the playoffs.
Start counting down the Championships for the last few years, and you’ll see what I mean. Tatum, Jokic, Steph, Giannis, LeBron, Kahwi, KD, KD, LeBron, Steph, etc., etc. The best player asserts his dominance more than he did in the regular season.
If you told me that SGA wasn’t ready to be “Him”, I’d take that more seriously than OKC is too superstar-dominant.
SGA is ready to be him. No doubt about it. He’s there. He is the man.
The problem is if you lock him down, the other guys are deer in the headlights. Especially this far along in the playoffs.
Going to be a great series I look forward to each and every game.
Gary, we’ve been going back and forth on OKC all year, and you still stand to be a genius if Minny pulls this out, but I have to ask you this:
Are you more appreciative of the view that OKC’s team defense is too damn good for any offense in the league to stand up to it?
IMO, this is the defensive equivalent of GSW’s offense in 2018. It builds over the course of the game, and It eventually breaks you mentally. Your offense goes fast for the rest of the game.
See the Denver game on Sunday and Minny last night. When was the last time in the NBA we’ve seen DEFENSIVIVE ass whippings like this?
OKC’s defense is very very good. There’s no disputing that at all.
The two wolves guards off the bench can’t shoot that horribly again. And I don’t think they will.
But will Randle shoot that well again?
Prediction, the Wolves play better, go inside more and shoot over 30% from three in game 2.
They’ll lose by single digits and go home down 0-2.
That could very well be the result of game 2, but as I mentioned, game 3 is the key.
Do the Wolves come out and dominate?
Or do they win by a very small margin? That wouldn’t be good and that would indicate to me the series is over. Down 2-0 and barely win game 3? Not good.
And if OKC wins game 3? Series is over.
Gary,. Ok, game happened, OKC is up 2-0.
I’m doubling down on this being the end of this version of the TimberWolves. At this point, the Minnesota organization knows this roster will never compete with this version of OKC.
.
KD trade to Minnesota coming soon.
So sure the two guards off the bench play well and shoot it well, then Randle and Conley stink it up?
Well, here we go, game 3 will tell us all we need to know.
If Minnesota squeaks out a win, the series is over. That will simply be a desperation win versus an OKC team that naturally lets off the gas a little being up 2-0.
Minnesota has to have a minimum double digit victory Saturday night. Can both Randle/ Conley and also the two bench guards have a decent game at the same time? My goodness people. It’s Do or Die. Just play the way they’re capable of playing and everything will be fine.
Gary, OKC is the best two decades. Denver had the best shot because Jokic is the most difficult individual player to defend in the game. But OKC is grinding Minnesota up with ease.
I see a psychological battle which is already over. These weren’t normal losses. Minnesota broke, folded. At halftime, the games still felt competitive, but you could turn off your TV by the end of the 3rd quarter. Minny players’ body language says it all.
Odds of Minny winning 4 out of 5 are 3%. Stick a fork in ’em.
One game at a time.
My goodness Ari you don’t sound like a person I’d want to be in a foxhole with, married to, or in business with.
You give up too easily.
I don’t care what the numbers say or what the odds say.
Have you ever seen the movie Rudy about the Notre Dame football dude?
You ever hear the phrase, against all odds?
When I asked my basketball coach in high school about trying out for the junior college team, he chuckled and said that they always need managers at that next level.
Guess what, I made the junior college basketball team.
Churchill said, never never never never give up.
> Ari you don’t sound like a person I’d want to be in a foxhole
> Churchill said, never never never never give up.
Gary, you never fail to inspire.
I, too, heard Churchill talking to me on the battlefield:
“When outgunned, the best offense is a good retreat.”
Update: I showed the to my wife, and she says you’re right:
“My goodness Ari you don’t sound like a person I’d want to be in a foxhole with, married to, ”
But she also.picked Minnesota to win the series.
typo correction: “OKC is the best DEFENSE in two decades”
Yes, I understood what you meant. It’s almost like texting. We can usually figure it out lol
Yes, OKC’s defense is amazing to watch. All five guys on the floor, no matter who they are, get after it.
You can’t turn your head because another guy comes along from out of nowhere and rips the ball from you.
You not only have to worry about the guy guarding you, but the swarming presence of randoms coming at you.
Then there’s no easy outlet to the open guy because OKC is so fast that open guy isn’t open for more than a split second.
It really is fascinating to observe the efficiency of the thunder defense.
> It really is fascinating to observe the efficiency of the thunder
> defense.
Agreed. SGA is a superstar, but the OKC story is how Presti and Daigneault assembled a unique roster to build the most cohesive and intelligent defense of the modern era.
Every single player on this (ridiculously deep) rotation is a “plus” individual and team defender; each can switch and guard multiple positions; and, after playing together for years, each is experienced at teaming ballhandlers to force turnovers.
Only defensive studs can play for OKC. Josh Giddey wasn’t one, so enter Alex Caruso. Available cap space? Hartenstein’s the obvious choice. There are plenty of stars in the NBA that OKC wouldn’t want around.
Greg Popovich said about OKC in December that they make you work harder on offense than any team he’s ever faced. That’s why opponents fold so predictably in the second half.
Minnnys done a great job of keeping the turnovers down, they’ll need to repeat that to move on
A game vs A game I like Minny , problem being Minny tends to throw away games under the “woke up on wrong side of bed” syndrome
Okc is lucky
Rockets too young, inexperienced
Lakers collapsed in humiliating fashion
Curry went down just as gs was heating up
West has never been easier to W
Game 1 will determine if Wolves can win. It’s a must win for them. They are rested while OKC is coming off a tough series. If OKC take first 2 games wolves will lose the series in 5 games.
@arc89,
The Nuggets getting blown out resulted in all but 2 of the OKC starters playing less than 30 minutes. And the Twolves have had too much time off, they’ll be a step slow against the OKC fast pace.
I think you’re right, OKC in 5.
You can call me what you want, idc but OKC will be Minnesota’s first real test these playoffs.
Yes, that’s true and it will be so interesting to see how this plays out. Will Minnesota step up to their capabilities and take care of the thunder? Or will they cave and die with the three that stops falling?
Or will the wolves keep shooting like they have and open everything up?
OKC is very good, but I’m convinced they don’t win this series.
@GaryRSW
“Or will the wolves keep shooting like they have and open everything up?”
The Wolves are shooting 46.5%/35.0%/77.4% in the playoffs against 2 teams without bigs. That’s down from their reg season 46.8%/37.7%.
OKC’s def rating is #1 in the playoffs vs a big Nuggets team…
NBA, If the stats always worked out, we’d be wealthy. I’d live in Las Vegas and drive a Ferrari with the best air conditioning system known to man.
But the stats don’t always work out. A man can overcome the odds and succeed or he can go the other way and fail miserably.
My gut and watching them play this year says hands-down Minnesota Timberwolves. No doubt in my mind whatsoever.
You want to know one of the X Factors for me is in this series, knowing ahead of time that I love a guy like Jrue Holiday and his intangibles and ability to step up? Mike Conley.
He’s not as good as he was, but the guy is a stud in my mind. He can still play the game at a high level, shoots the three, and provides maturity, stability, encouragement in the locker room.
Conley does it on the floor and off the floor and the thunder don’t really have that guy. They’re all first timers.
Wolves 100%.
Conley had 7 pts on 25% shooting 3 reb 3 ast.
Maybe Finch should have played him more minutes.
Gloating already? It’s one game? You’re not allowed to do that until the series is over. I’ve never seen a one game sweep in any playoff series lately.
If you’re going to gloat early and before the series is over and pick increments to your preference, then I’ll go ahead and gloat on the first half.
That’s the increment I’ll gloat on.
SGA couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn lol. Neither could Williams.
So does that sound right? Bragging on the results of something before the series is over? Before the game is even over? No it’s not.
Adjustments. Coaching. Minutes and substitutions. The game within the game.
But perhaps you’re gloating now because you know it’s not going to work out later?
You know the thunder are going to cave, crumble, and fold under pressure as the series moves on? They’re young and unproven on this stage. OK I understand now.
“Gloating” (lol) over a Wolves 4 pt lead in the 1st half is funny when compared to the 2nd half OKC +30.
Given that exactly what you said would kill the Thunder (locking up SGA) didn’t make much difference, it looks like adjusting will be tough.
Who would have thought that the Wolves would take 51 out of 83 fgas from three?
Gary, you’re nothing if not consistent.
You’ve been saying OKC is less than its record since December, so we’ll all bow down if Minny prevails. I’ve been consistent as well. OKC over Boston was my pre-season pick…but that’s hardly going out on a limb.
Here’s my take with cajones: OKC spanks Minny. Gentleman’s sweep. Minny’s FO realizes it’s time for desperate measures. Ant get his wish: Randle, McDaniels and a 2033 1st rounder for Kevin Durant.
> OKC will be Minnesota’s first real test these playoffs.
I’ll respectfully disagree, and say that Denver/Jokic is as stiff a test as you’ll get in a playoff series. Best player in the world, plus Championship pedigree. Aaron Gordon, before the hamstring, made Denver extra tough this year. Murray was (mostly) healthy, unlike last year when Denver lost to Minny.
Winning that series in 7, with some clutch come-back wins along the way, will be viewed as a THE breakthrough in the evolution of this young team.
Thunder in 4, Pacers in 4, Pacers in 7
Thunder bench is a big plus for them. I’ve watched the Thunder enough. To see they have issues with good bigs. Rudy plays big this series. I think Thunder will have problems with Randle. One thing that works in TWolves favor. They are still becoming a better team after big trade. I know Donte can have big games. Hasn’t really done that in Minny. This is a close series to call. Both look like they are peaking. I have to go with NY connection. TimberWolves in six.
KnickerbockerAl predictions:
> I’ve watched the Thunder enough to see…they
> have issues with good bigs.
> Rudy plays big this series.
> Thunder will have problems with Randle.
> TimberWolves in six.
Another Talent-Vision special?
First of all ANYONE who says EITHER TEAM wins in four or five doesn’t know ball. No one is sweeping anyone. These are probably the two best teams in the NBA especially since the All-Star Break. They actually match up really well and went 2-2 in the season series (though MN didn’t have 3 of their starters in at least one of the games)
This series will be a battle and I’d put my money on whoever comes out of the West to beat the East team.
Go Wolves!
> ANYONE who says EITHER TEAM wins in four or five doesn’t know ball.
FACT: Minnesota lost to Dallas in the playoffs last year, 4-1.
They’ll need to shoot much better than they did against the Warriors to win more than 1 game.
MN Eric, still think those of us predicting OKC in 5 or less “don’t know ball?”.
Rudy has been exposed in the playoffs before by opposing bigs who score from anywhere on the court. Randle has also shrunk in big games in the playoffs many times. OKC has grown and I’ve got them winning this series in 6.
The Wolves last year played a hard fought seven game series against the previous champs to get to the WCF. I think part of them felt like they accomplished a major goal and didn’t know how to keep their foot on the gas in the WCF. They were also exhausted. Ant admitted that he had nothing left for that series.
This year they are rested and healed.
They also have played up or down to their competition all year. They “played down” a little bit to GSW (while mostly blowing them out)
They can get up for anybody. Our G-League team and Naz beat OKC earlier this year.
If ANYONE wins in five, it’s the Wolves.
This sure aged well.
The thunder have not seen the wolves at full strength all season. Julius Randall and Dante de Vincenzo didn’t play against them, and Rudy go bear only played one game. Timberwolves in five!
@Bissy
Not true, The Wolves were healthy and Randall and Dante played in the OKC win on December 31st. And Chet was out that game.
link to basketball-reference.com