The 2025 draft lottery produced some unexpected results, with the Mavericks (No. 1), Spurs (No. 2) and Sixers (No. 3) leapfrogging multiple teams to select Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper and VJ Edgecombe, respectively.
Flagg is, unsurprisingly, the odds-on favorite (-190 at ESPN BET) to win Rookie of the Year for the 2025/26 season, according to Kevin Pelton of ESPN.com.
But the last two American prospects who were as hyped as Flagg — Zion Williamson and Anthony Davis — didn’t end up winning the award, so it’s not a given that the 18-year-old will claim it next spring, even if it currently seems as though it will “probably be Flagg’s award to lose,” as Pelton puts it.
Which players from the 2025 rookie class are best positioned to challenge Flagg for the award? Pelton groups them into categories, with the “contenders” being Kon Knueppel (No. 4; Hornets), Tre Johnson (No. 6; Wizards) and Ace Bailey (No. 5; Jazz).
As Pelton explains, Johnson, Knueppel and Bailey were selected by three of the NBA’s worst teams from last season should be given plenty of opportunities to earn both shots and minutes. While Knueppel is a distant sixth in betting odds (+2800), Pelton thinks the former Duke guard/forward might be in the best position to have a strong start to his career, followed by Johnson (+750) and Bailey (+1600).
Harper (+1000) and Edgecombe (+1200) are in their own “wild cards” tier. Although they’re undeniably talented, Pelton writes that both guards are joining crowded backcourts on teams that are striving to be competitive, so their playing time might be limited, barring injuries.
Pelton’s final group of rookies — Walter Clayton Jr. (No. 18; Jazz), Nique Clifford (No. 24; Kings), Egor Demin (No. 8; Nets), Jeremiah Fears (No. 7; Pelicans), Ryan Kalkbrenner (No. 34; Hornets) and Derik Queen (No. 13; Pelicans) — are the “long shots” to win the award. Kalkbrenner is the only second-rounder of the bunch and isn’t among the top 28 betting favorites, but Pelton is “intrigued” by his potential as a rookie, noting that the former Creighton center could be a day-one starter in Charlotte.
We want to know what you think. Do you agree with Pelton’s categories of the players best positioned to challenge Flagg for Rookie of the Year? Is there anyone who wasn’t mentioned that you believe could be a dark-horse contender? Head to the comment section to weigh in.
China vs Australia just tipped in this Asia Cup gold medal game & it’s already very physical. This would be a monumental W for China if they can pull it off but Aussies are the favorites for a reason. Back & forth start early on
Chinese squad looking extremely impressive so far in this huge game. They’re up 8 on Australia after 1. They’re turning the Aussies over, they’re being aggressive offensively esp with dribble drives. Boomers gonna have to start defending without fouling & knocking down more shots.
Sheesh, China start the 2nd qtr looking even better than the 1st. Quick couple of stops & scores have them up 12 but still lots of time left
Atl’s own Jaylin Galloway been 1 of Australia’s best players all tournament & it’s basically been him & Winthrop legend Xavier Cooks keeping them close. Late 2nd qtr rally has them within 4 of China at half
Tomahawk dunk from Galloway caps a big Aussie run to start the 3rd. They have all the momentum & a 3pt lead w/ 7mins left in the 3rd
China have regained their poise & are back up 3 late in the 3rd. Beyond obv being the championship of Asian/Oceanic basketball this is also basically a matchup of the CBA (Chinese league) all-stars vs the NBL (Aussie league) all-stars on neutral ground (Saudi Arabia). CBA definitely earning respect with the way these guys are playing rn
One thing that has been obv ever since the very beginning of the game is that the best player on the court is Xavier Cooks. He has been extremely dominant & has 29pts on 13-16 fg with 6mins left. 2pt Aussie lead
Unsportsmanlike foul by Cooks with 4secs left gives China a golden opportunity. They’re down 1 with a chance to win it…
What a game
Except the Australian C team won I guess, lol.
CMB if Raptors end up making a trade…
Speaking of rookies, all-Rookie big Yves Missi currently in a battle rn in Angola. His Cameroonian squad is 2-0 so far at Afrobasket but they’re down 1 late in the 1st vs the other 2-0 team in their group, Nigeria. Missi, GaTech legend Josh Okogie & numerous other guys have had highlight reel plays so far. Both teams are definitely medal favorites but the winner will have a much easier road to gold. Missi & Okogie prob the 2 favorites for MOP as well
Nigeria is dominating the minutes when Missi & Okogie are both off the court. Both guys played the whole 1st qtr & Cameroon was down 3 after 1. Then the NBA guys went to the bench & Cameroon is now down 13 as Missi comes back in halfway thru the 2nd
Since 2006 when new age limit when into effect. Only 5 players drafted after one year removed from HS. Have won ROY award. KD (2007-08), Kyrie (2011-12)
Wiggins (2014-15), Luka (2018-19), Ball (2020-21).
Today it’s mostly about PT. Are they ready to give major minutes. Cooper is ready to start for Dallas. He is a generational player. Who was born to play. I agree it’s his to loose. I see Queen, Knueppel as ones who could give him a run.
There’s been a lot more than that. Since you included Luka I’m including Wembanyama and LaMelo.
2008 – Kevin Durant (Texas, 1 year)
2009 – Derrick Rose (Memphis, 1 year)
2010 – Tyreke Evans (Memphis, 1 year)
2012 – Kyrie Irving (Duke, 1 year)
2015 – Andrew Wiggins (Kansas, 1 year)
2016 – Karl-Anthony Towns (Kentucky, 1 year)
2019 – Luka Dončić (Slovenia, Real Madrid pro)
2021 – LaMelo Ball (Australia NBL, 1 year removed from HS)
2022 – Scottie Barnes (Florida State, 1 year)
2023 – Paolo Banchero (Duke, 1 year)
2024 – Victor Wembanyama (France, Metropolitans 92 pro)
2025 – Stephon Castle (UConn, 1 year)
That’s what the searched pulled up. Yeah I really should have checked it. Never thought it was too many so I believed it. ……… soooooo. … still gives me wrong amount. I will have to do this the hard way now ……. Al be back …
I read your post and thought to myself “That’s correct but what about Stephon Castle, Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans?” curiosity got the best of me so I looked up the rest.
Ok had to do it one by one this time. One and done players. Are considered one year college players. Also players who turn 19 the year they are drafted. Cause that is when they are eligible to be drafted. For instance Cooper will turn 19 in December this year. So he qualifies this year as 19 yr old one and done player. If he would turn 20 this year. He would not qualify. Like Ben Simmons, Scottie Barnes, Derek Rose, Tyreke Evans, KAT, Ja Morant, Paolo Banchero, Stephon Castle who all turned 20 the year they were drafted. Only 19 yr olds the year they were drafted ……. Or turn 19 their draft year they were drafted.
These are the true one and done 19 yr old ROYs since 2006. Turned 19 their draft year.
KD, Kyrie, Wiggins, L Ball that is it ….
Luka and Wemby were both in pro systems since they were 14 and 15 yr olds. They also don’t qualify. LaMello played one year in Australia pro L. This list has been researched the right way. One by one. Even I can get lazy and accept my searches.
I apologize thank you.
Coward is probably best positioned to get award, followed by Yang
I wouldn’t say either are well positioned. I doubt they’ll get the opportunity to produce enough stats for rookie of the year. Coward faces a rotation with Wells and Pope starting ahead of him, while Aldama and Williams compete for bench minutes. Hansen has an even steeper climb, with Clingan, Camara, Avdija, and Grant all ahead of him in the frontcourt rotation.
“Pelton writes that both guards are joining crowded backcourts on teams that are striving to be competitive, so their playing time might be limited, barring injuries.”
Don’t worry, Edgecombe is on the Sixers. Call it a hunch, but I expect injuries will happen this season.