In an article for HoopsHype, Mike Shearer lists seven players who could be primed for breakout seasons in 2025/26. Here’s his full list:
- Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers)
- Bennedict Mathurin (Pacers)
- Andrew Nembhard (Pacers)
- Sam Hauser (Celtics)
- Brandon Miller (Hornets)
- Jake LaRavia (Lakers)
- Terrence Shannon Jr. (Timberwolves)
Shearer acknowledges that Sharpe’s inclusion is a little unconventional, as the 22-year-old averaged a career-best 18.5 points per game in ’24/25. But the Canadian wing is entering the final year of his rookie scale contract and is eligible for an extension until October 20, so he certainly has financial reasons to be motivated for a big season.
Mathurin, who is also eligible for a rookie scale extension, should have a big role for Indiana with Tyrese Haliburton out for the year. Ditto for Nembhard, one of the league’s more unheralded role players who has a chance to show he can be more than that this season.
Boston revamped its roster this offseason for financial and roster-building reasons. There were rumblings that Hauser might be on the trade block, but he’s still a Celtic, and Shearer believes the former Virginia star should have plenty of opportunities to shine in ’25/26.
Shearer also describes why he thinks Miller (second season cut short due to wrist surgery), LaRavia (essentially replacing Dorian Finney-Smith) and Shannon (a Nickeil Alexander-Walker replacement?) could take leaps forward.
We want to know what you think. Do you agree with the players on Shearer’s list? If not, why? Which other players could be primed for breakout seasons? Head to the comment section to weigh in.
Wonder how many more clicks HoopsHype gets by including a Laker and a Celtic on lists like this?
Well the Hauser one makes sense since he will be getting way more minutes bc of Tatums absence.
I know hate the Lakers and Celtics is easy, but looking at the fact that Hauser’s minutes will probably double take about 5 seconds to think through.
Also, its not the Lakers and Celtics fault they have dominated the NBA since its inception and its not their fault that their match ups define the NBA.
But yeah its for click bate.
Put a warrior like Brandin Podziemski on here and you’d have 45 comments instead of 15.
Or see below. Somebody brought up a celtic and warrior and we are off and running lol
I’d put one Kawhi Anthony Leonard, as a breakout candidate ….. breakout from jail, that is.
(Comedic drum roll)
Matas Buzelis if Billy plays him. Austar Thompson same boat.
Nembhard was great in the post-season. I think with Haliburton out he will be a valuable asset and could prove that he is more than a backup point guard. I think right now he’s a more viable starter than Tyus Jones who obviously struggled as the number one in PHX, but prior to signing there was considered a viable starter by lots of talking heads.
Mathurin has all the raw talent but I’m not sure he can translate that into NBA success. You gotta shoot the three to play the wing and 34% is probably not adequate.
I haven’t seen enough of Miller, but his size and production are intriguing.
I agree on Mathurin. Something’s missing. But let’s see if he shows up looking like he worked on his game over the summer. Especially that shot.
Ha! I’d figure you wouldn’t be big on Mathurin because he really is so much like Kuminga! Both are polarizing. Both uber-athletic who started hooping later than most.
Mathurin gets his shot this year. Carlisle announced he’ll be starting at the 2. I hope he continues to get better.
Oh hey, you’re here right now. I love it. Do you want an email right now and I can delete it after you say you have it?
How do you make this list without Kel’el Ware, Pelle Larson, and / or Nikola Jovic?
Jovic is a sexy choice – but this is Spo, who’ll still keep him on a short leash and will still stick with the vets, most of the time.
I’m curious what the HEAT get from a rested, acclimated Wiggins.
Breakout? Well, I don’t know what that means as I think Andrew Nembhard has already shown he’s terrific. If averaging 20 pts per game with lots of assists and boards is a breakout I’ll offer up the Celts Payton Pritchard. If he gets to start. He’s already shown he can post a triple double if he gets minutes.
No mention of Kuminga?
.
.
/s
He has no chance of breaking out. What you’ve seen is what you’ll get.
I guess the only thing is if he changes teams, he’ll get more spotty minutes instead of the few spotty minutes he received with the Warriors.
Haters gonna hate! Insisting that somebody will stop improving at 22 years old betrays a certain bias. (Because that virtually never happens.)
Facts:
– 24.5 ppg in 4 games against Minnesota. 55 fg%, 44 3 pt%. Most important games vs best competition.
– 23 pts per 36 min in 2024-25
– 26 pts per 36 min in 2024-25 before Butler arrived)
– 22 pts per 36 mins in 2023-24
– 24 pts per game in career starts or games playing more than 28 mins
In all cases, Steph and Draymond were better when Kuminga was on the floor than not. Our most productive lineup (by point differential) in last 2 years is Steph+Podz+Wiggins+Draymond+JK.
There’s no way reasonable way to argue from past performance that JK would not be a > 21 ppg scorer in a starting role (36 mpg) on an average team this coming year, at (only) 22 years old
So the excuse some people will use when Kuminga averages 15-17 points a game next year is that he didn’t get his “36 minutes per game.”
There were only 14 guys in the entire league who averaged 36 minutes a game last year, so essentially he’ll never “get a chance to prove himself” according to some.
We’ll probably hear this every year concerning this player until about age 28 or 29.
“Potential, fair chance, coach’s fault, wrong team, bad fit…. “
Yet the kid with no game wants $30 million a year? OK makes sense to me.
Only a couple people outside of those who do this for a living, realize..,
HE’S NOT GOOD ENOUGH.
Gary, I used the “36 minutes per game” stat because it’s officially released by the NBA, and you can find it on any site that keeps stats. It’s the way to “normalize” scoring performance for head-to-head comparison. I recognize that NBA starters average in the low 30’s.
I’ll continue to stick with the numbers. I think you’re ignoring the data for how young players perform. If they remain in the league past 22, the progress made by young players from years 22 to 26 is consistently upward, with few exception.
The players from JK’s draft class — Cunningham, Green, Mobley, Barnes, Giddey — all got to play 31+ mins per game starting from their first season in the league. That’s why their numbers are a few points higher per game. They played way more minutes not because they were better than Kuminga, but because their teams sucked, whereas the Warriors were competing for a title. I know you’ve raved about Jalen Green and Josh Giddey, but I believe if you factored in the number of minutes they played and saw how bad they were at times (as all young players are), you’d have a more balanced opinion.
Don’t take my word for it. Go to basketballreference.com and look at these players stats — 36 mpg, shooting percentage, turnovers, etc. Kuminga’s *normalized* offensive productivity beginning in years 3 and 4 he was better than nearly all of them, and nobody was significantly better.
You data guys always have great points and refute much of what I write. Very nice. You know what they say, you can’t argue with the data.
I’m on the same page with you regarding 36 minutes per game. But what I did was use the numbers you provided and looked forward to when Kuminga would not match those points per game because there’s no way he’ll meet the 36 minutes. Thus some people may say he’s still not getting a chance When he averages 18 but his 36 minutes and points per game match to that figureis whatever you have up there 22?
I hope that makes sense.
Here’s the facts on JK. He’s a pretty good player. He averages 25 minutes a game the last two years. He averages 15-16 points a game off the bench and sometimes starting.
That’s a nice player. That’s 15 to 20 million a year. Or whatever.., 22 million.
He doesn’t rebound much.., it’s less than five a game from the forward spot, and he doesn’t shoot the ball very well from outside. 32% from three.
Here’s the uproar. He wants to be paid like a star !! Paid like a Pascal Siakam, a Jaylen Brown, a Tyler Herro or a CJ McCollum.
Those guys have skills. Those guys can get you a bucket when you need one.., and do it today.
That’s the uproar. That’s the complaint.
Don’t use popular vernacular like “hating” or “hate.” Nobody hates Jonathan Kuminga. I can’t think of a single person.
Stating that makes your comment lose credibility. It sounds like a college kid or teenager who really has no clue.
There’s no reason to hate Jonathan Kuminga. Why would a person feel that way? He’s a human being. He’s a ball player. He’s on the Warriors. We love him. We want him to stay.
If he was a player, they would pay him. See Jordan Poole. The guy was reckless on offense, didn’t defend as well as you’d like, but he had skills and they PAID HIM what he was worth and for what he did.
This is not on the Warriors. This is on the kid.
He needs to get in the gym and work on his game. Maybe he’s doing that now overseas because he’s not in San Francisco at the gym. We all know that.
Gary,
Apologies if you took it the wrong way, but I said “haters gonna hate”. It’s a common expression for sports fans showing a persistent, emotional (as opposed to rational) dislike for a particular player. It doesn’t mean you hate the athlete as a person. It comes with being a sports fan, where all our loyalties are irrational.
I know you personally don’t hate any athlete. But consistently saying things like “he sucks”, “he’ll never get better”, and “he’s not a basketball player” indicate, to me, an irrational level of dislike. It doesn’t bother me one bit, and I do it all the time myself.
That makes sense. But I face the phrase all the time in my other forums. I hate the phrase, haters gonna hate lol !!! Just kidding Ari, trying to make a joke.
By the way, I’m driving to visit my brother in half Moon Bay. When are you up for some slippery nipples or an adult beverage at the Yard House?
Any time! And I just happen to go to Half Moon Bay often myself… in fact, I was there yesterday walking the Coastal Trail… awesome!
Name the time and place (Campbell, the Poodle, Palo Alto, Half Moon Bay, etc) and I’ll be there. I’m in town for the next 10 days and flexible!
I’m probably in half Moon Bay till Saturday. Then South Bay Saturday, Sunday-ISH. If you are somewhere in between, let me know for Saturday -ish, I don’t want you driving all over the bay.
Let’s do it.
Let me know what day and time you can look at this website and this specific thread and I’ll put my little used burner email which I can delete here within five minutes. But then you’ll have a contact.
Look forward to it. I’m buying by the way.
Sold. Let me figure out how to send one of those anonymous type messages that won’t break our anonymity. (I’m on the run from those Aussie hit-men, gotta be careful.) Watch your notifications!
Here’s my anonymous email:
fax-impact.9s@icloud.com
Got it, sent it..
starting 5 of nemhard,nesmith,siakam,tj,mathurin with carlisle coaching could still win about 40-45 games
obviously with healthy hali indy woulda been 2025 champs, they’d bring back myles + won maybe 55-60 next yr
Hard to say who would’ve won. Haliburton is the type who can have a good performance like in Game 6, but also throw in a stinker like in Game 5. Injuries are part of the game. Jalen Williams played the entire postseason with a torn ligament in his shooting hand
i was at game 7
i saw the fire in hali’s eyes
he was taking shots 2 hours before the game. nobody else was even on the court. and then he got off to a crazy start. 3 straight 3s, in like 4 minutes. indy was even up at half without him. okc wasnt ready to win gm 7 under all the pressure and lights. they beat indy bc indy didnt have their superstar for 99% of the game. its sad, its tragic, ill get over it but ill never forget what coulda been. the greatest championship run of all time that didnt happen. to add insult to injury, hali might never be the same again. the tm might never have that kinda talent and opportunity again.
i change my mind. im not over it. and i probly never will
Sorry, sh*t happens. I remember Celtics center Perk getting injured against the Lakers, Celts up 3-2, and Celts lost the Title. Still hurts.
@beach
ye you’re right its the same exact situation. i’m glad you understand. appreciate it.
oh by the way hope you’re enjoying the nba record 18 championships, incl the 1 boston won 2 years ago. must be so painful for you not to win every single year
With a bit more playing time, Wiggins on OKC could be on this list… Definitely Jovic too from Heat…can safely leave Kuminga off this list
Come on Wiseman!!!!!!