When ESPN's Shams Charania broke the news in September that Cam Thomas had accepted his qualifying offer from Brooklyn, he noted within his report that the Nets guard should be better positioned in free agency next summer -- not just because he'll be unrestricted, but because there are "at least 10 teams are set to have cap space."
While it's true that unrestricted free agency should be more favorable to navigate for Thomas than restricted free agency was, it feels premature to assume that there will be double-digit teams with cap room next offseason.
For one, some of the teams projected to operate under the cap in 2026 could make in-season trades that add salary to their books for next season and beyond. Additionally, even if those clubs don't take on any future salary in the coming months, they may not end up having cap room available, depending on what happens with their own free agents.
In the space below, we're taking a closer early look at the teams best positioned to have cap room in 2026 and weighing how realistic it is that they'll take that path.
Let's dive in...
Luke, I’m surprised that you think it’s a safe bet that Zach Lavine opts in to $49M. Far more likely I think that he’ll opt out and get a four-year offer worth ~$200M.
Austin Reaves’ awesome start and chemistry with Luka might make it impossible to lose him in Lakerland. Keeping his $20M cap hold on the books and signing him to a near max after completing all the other moves makes sense.
If they move on from LeBron they could get Lavine in that salary slot.
LaVine’s current maximum-salary contract has been viewed as a negative almost since he signed it. Unless the Kings far exceed expectations this season and LaVine’s play contributes significantly to that success, I’d be pretty surprised if he signs another one deal with a similar average annual value.
Maybe he’ll prove me wrong, but IMO, a Julius Randle-type deal (three years, $100MM) is far more likely than four/$200MM. And if that’s the case, the $49MM one-year option could be more appealing.
If those are the offers he thinks he’ll get then you’re right…I just think that given his health history he will be motivated to secure long-term money if he finishes a good healthy season, and he may be the consensus best unrestricted free agent willing to switch teams. That player archetype typically get a max or near-max deal.