Projected NBA Taxpayers For 2025/26

While seven NBA teams are still operating in luxury tax territory following the All-Star break, that total has been cut in half since the start of the month.

Prior to an eventful trade deadline week, a total of 14 teams projected to be taxpayers, per Bobby Marks of ESPN (Twitter link) observes, with the 16 non-taxpayers on track to receive about $13.8MM apiece in tax distribution money at that point.

However, the Celtics, Nuggets, Suns, Mavericks, Sixers, Magic, and Raptors all ducked below the tax line with their pre-deadline transactions, while a few other teams remained in the tax but took steps to significantly reduce their end-of-season bills.

Cleveland, for instance, had been projected to pay nearly $164MM in tax penalties, according to Marks. The Cavaliers will likely still have the NBA’s highest tax bill, but their deadline deals reduced their projected payment by more than $95MM, according to Eric Pincus of Sports Business Classroom.

Here are the current projected tax penalties, per Pincus’ data:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers: $68.67MM
2. Golden State Warriors: $65.67MM *
3. New York Knicks: $44.44MM
4. Los Angeles Lakers: $22.65MM *
5. Houston Rockets: $7.07MM
6. Los Angeles Clippers: $6.67MM *
7. Minnesota Timberwolves: $5.48MM
   Total: $220.65MM

Note: Teams marked with an asterisk are paying repeater tax rates.

These numbers may fluctuate a little before the end of the season. For instance, the Clippers recently increased their projected bill when they promoted Jordan Miller to their standard roster, while the Knicks did the same when they signed Jeremy Sochan. The Warriors, Rockets, and Timberwolves all have open roster spots that they could fill before the end of the season, which would increase their respective tax bills. Various contract incentives that go earned or unearned could also impact the end-of-season tax totals.

Based on the current figures from Pincus, each non-taxpayer is projected to receive a payout of about $4.8MM. That figure is determined by cutting the total league-wide tax penalties in half, then dividing them evenly among the non-taxpaying teams (in this case, 23 clubs).

While it’s no real surprise that that figure is far below the $13.8MM projection from a few weeks ago, it’s worth noting that it’s significantly less than what non-taxpayers received last year. In 2024/25, 10 taxpayers paid a total of $461.21MM in penalties and the 20 non-taxpayers received $11.53MM apiece, according to Pincus.

Assuming these are the seven teams that finish the season in tax territory, the Warriors, Lakers, and Clippers would all be subject to repeater penalties in 2026/27 if they’re taxpayers again next season. Additionally, the Bucks, Celtics, Suns, and Nuggets would pay repeater rates if they’re in the tax in ’26/27, since all four clubs were in the tax for three straight years from 2023-25. They’ll each need to spend one more season as a non-taxpayer in order to reset the repeater clock.