The Hornets got off to an 11-23 start in 2025/26, looking awfully similar to the team that lost 55, 61, and 63 games in the three seasons prior to this one. But losing their 23rd game on January 2, Charlotte has been a revelation, posting the NBA’s best net rating (+10.7) and sixth-best record (33-15) during that stretch as youngsters like Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel enjoyed breakout years.
Having been bogged down by their slow start, the Hornets’ red-hot play over the course of three-plus months to close out the season only got them so far. They finished the season ranked ninth in the East, so despite being the conference’s fourth-best team since the new year (behind only Detroit, Boston, and Cleveland), Charlotte will have to win a pair of play-in games to make the playoffs.
The first of those play-in matchups will occur on Tuesday, when the Hornets host the Heat in Charlotte. Although the Hornets are comfortably favored to win that game – most sportsbooks are listing Miami as about a six-point underdog – a victory is hardly guaranteed against a Heat team that finished the year just a single game back of Charlotte and won the regular season series 3-1.
The Heat have had a more up-and-down season than the Hornets. After compiling winning streaks of six and seven games earlier in the year, they lost five in a row in March, which decimated their chances of securing a top-six spot in the East. But they’ve had to deal with a series of injuries affecting top players, including Tyler Herro, who was limited to 33 outings after making the All-Star team last season, and have managed to hold their own anyway, finishing in the top 14 in the NBA in both offensive and defensive rating.
Miami also holds the edge in postseason experience over Charlotte. The Heat are old hands in the play-in tournament, having earned playoff spots via the play-in in each of the past three seasons, including as the No. 10 seed a year ago. Conversely, Charlotte hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2016, and the last time they were in the play-in (2022), LaMelo Ball and the Hornets were blown out by 29 points.
Over in the West, the 45-37 Suns will host the 42-40 Trail Blazers in Tuesday’s late game. While the No. 9 Hornets and No. 10 Heat are simply trying to keep their respective seasons alive, Phoenix and Portland are playing in the West’s No. 7 vs. 8 game, meaning one of them will be able to clinch a playoff spot with a victory tonight.
The Suns will host the contest and are viewed as roughly four-point favorites. But the upstart squad, which has enjoyed an encouraging bounce-back season after parting ways with Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant last summer, hasn’t been playing its best basketball in recent weeks. Following a 39-27 start, Phoenix won just six of 16 games to close out the season. The Blazers, on the other hand, wrapped up the regular season on a 10-4 run, picking up a crucial victory over the Clippers on Friday to take control of the No. 8 seed in the West.
Still, like the Heat in the early game, the Suns’ top players have been here before. Top scorers Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks have 76 total playoff appearances between them, while regulars like Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale, and Jalen Green have competed in postseason series too. The Blazers have some veterans in their rotation, including former NBA champion Jrue Holiday, but key contributors Deni Avdija, Donovan Clingan, Toumani Camara, Shaedon Sharpe, and Scoot Henderson have yet to appear in a playoff game.
Will the home court and playoff experience advantages be enough to earn the Suns a win, or will the Blazers’ late-season momentum carry over to the play-in? Can the Heat recreate last season’s success as a No. 10 seed in the play-in, or will the Hornets show on Tuesday that their second-half run was no fluke?
Vote in our poll below on tonight’s matchups, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your predictions!
Why are we having a 7 vs 8 game and a 9 vs 10 game on the same night? Sounds dumb
Why not?
Warriors favoritism. Let the old guys rest one more night and play Wednesday.
Just kidding, of course. It’s all about ratings my friend.
I would guess the league probably would’ve preferred to do both 7/8 matchups tonight like they did last year, since that gives the higher seed the extra day of rest before Friday’s games, but the Sixers weren’t able to host tonight since the Flyers are playing in their arena.
Great point Luke. Arena availability always hinders matters, right ? lol.
That makes more sense than what I was thinking.
Who’s going to watch an East Coast game that finishes up at 12:30 – 1:00 o’clock in the morning on a school night? TV ratings would be in the toilet.
@ Luke, Are you the baseball player?
Its east coast then west coast. I rather see this over as soon as possible. Get to top 8. Just me.