The NBA’s “3-2-1” draft lottery reform plan remains on track to get the votes necessary for it be ratified in advance of the 2027 draft, according to Jake Fischer of The Stein Line, who explores in his latest Substack article what sort of ripple effect those changes to the lottery could have on the trade market going forward.
As Fischer has noted before, middle-of-the-pack teams may become more reluctant to trade first-round picks going forward, since the value of the selections in the back half of the lottery will substantially increase under the new system. Additionally, since the proposed format includes a sunset provision and could be altered by 2030, teams may hesitate to move first-rounders beyond that, since another lottery overhaul a few years down the road could drastically changed the value of those picks in the 2030s.
“I’m not trading any picks beyond 2029,” one general manager told Fischer.
As Fischer notes, teams selling off star players for draft-heavy packages in recent years have often prioritized far-off picks in the hopes that the team acquiring the veteran star will no longer be a contender in five to seven years, increasing the value of their future first-rounders. But the new system might actually encourage teams to try to compile as many picks as possible in a single draft between 2027-29 in the hopes of maximizing their lottery odds that year. One strategist told Fischer that he’d advise the Bucks to take that approach this offseason if they trade Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Here’s more from Fischer:
- Echoing earlier reporting from Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints, Fischer says rival teams are consistently pointing to the Thunder, who hold the 12th and 17th overall picks, as a strong candidate to trade up. If they stay at No. 12, they’d be “very much open” to moving their second first-rounder, Fischer writes, adding that executives are preparing for Oklahoma City to be aggressive on the trade market. “What’s to stop them from packaging No. 12, 17, and future picks to try to go get (Cameron) Boozer or (Caleb) Wilson?” one Eastern Conference exec asked Fischer. As I noted on Tuesday, I expect a move like that would probably require a significant overpay, given that no teams will be eager to help OKC add another young cornerstone.
- Rival teams are “working hard” to determine how likely the Clippers are to trade the fifth overall pick, according to Fischer, who says there’s “considerable curiosity” around the league about what L.A. will do with that selection.
- With the NCAA’s draft withdrawal deadline for early entrants looming, Fischer breaks down the math on the decisions that several notable prospects are facing, pointing out that star players at high-major schools have no problem earning between $4-6MM per season via NIL. In order to crack $6MM in first-year earnings in the NBA, a player would have to be drafted no lower than 11th. That’s why potential mid-to-late first-rounders like Koa Peat and Tyler Tanner are weighing whether it makes more sense to spend another year at college and try to increase their draft stock for 2027.
Lottery reform murders Kings
Kings have no assets to compete
Murray is an overpaid, negative asset
How many years it takes for Kings to be top 4 teams in West?
A hundred million years
There is a laundry list of reasons why the Kings won’t find success. Lottery reform is not on that list.
Strong squad headed down south to try to extend American dominance in youth basketball at the 2026 FIBA U18 AmeriCup tourney. A bunch of guys that are gonna be in college this fall (& in the 1st rd of the NBA draft next summer) are on the team… Bruce Branch (BYU), Taylen ‘6-7’ Kinney (KU), Ethan Taylor & Jasiah Jervis (Michigan St), Colben Landrew (UConn), Caleb Gaskins (Miami) & Quentin Coleman (Illinois). Tournament starts Monday night vs Argentina… link to usab.com
Could the thunder trade this years two firsts plus next years clippers pick for the 5 pick this year? That’s probably too much
That package (probably plus something) is good for the 3 or 4. Otherwise Thunder needs are better addressed below 10.
That’s probably about the correct price range but I don’t see it for future financial reasons
With SGA Jw and Chet it’s gonna be hard to e tend too many other guys
I see them trading one of those picks for a future pick and making one on the guy they covet most – They draft so well I’d be confident they got a guy in the teens that fits well
I’d prolly do that if I was Ballmer tho
The NBA seems to go out of its way to come up with the most convoluted rules it can.
GMs will find the path of least resistance once this takes effect.
Thunder should trade their two firsts and a couple of future firsts (least favorable ones they control) for #4 to grab Caleb. Then trade JW for future draft assets to a team like the Nets. That allows them to not have to pay JW and gets them a potentially strong player on a rookie deal. They have proven they can win without JW already and this should also allow them to keep most of the rest of rotation intact.
Lot of people have suggested this or something similar and I personally am not a fan at all. Let the top end guys go to teams that need them to be top end guys. If Boozer goes to OKC his playing time gets limited to the expectations of his team. These guys need time to grow into the players they can be. Cr g
The salary problem in OKC gets kicked down the road because the trio of Dort/Caruso/iHart this offseason. I thought iHart was gone until this Spurs series.
Make no mistake – if you are a team in the West trying to be a title contender, you need to build to around Wemby. Someway to contain him. The Spurs young core are the worst they’ll ever be and they’re fighting for a spot in the Finals.
Draft picks have been the only quality asset that many NBA teams have been willing to trade over the past decade. Silver’s anti-tanking proposal doesn’t really address tanking, but it takes another bite out of an already compromised trade market.
I’m somewhat surprised that the owners of teams that have traded their FRPs in the drafts from 2027-2029 are willing to go along with Silver’s silliness. Likewise, that teams that figure to be sellers over that period (starting with MIL this year) are willing to.
Trading up for Aday Mara makes more sense for the Thunder than Boozer or Wilson. The Thunder are going to have to deal with Wembayama for a long time. Mara’s size will be a big help in defending him going forward.
I can see Dallas open to moving back to 12 while netting Denver’s 2027 first from Okc if okc fears Mara won’t last
He could just last till 12 flat out tho
Possibly, but I’ve seen some mock drafts having Mara going to the Hawks at 8.