Fischer’s Latest: Lottery Reform, Thunder, Clippers, NIL

The NBA’s “3-2-1” draft lottery reform plan remains on track to get the votes necessary for it be ratified in advance of the 2027 draft, according to Jake Fischer of The Stein Line, who explores in his latest Substack article what sort of ripple effect those changes to the lottery could have on the trade market going forward.

As Fischer has noted before, middle-of-the-pack teams may become more reluctant to trade first-round picks going forward, since the value of the selections in the back half of the lottery will substantially increase under the new system. Additionally, since the proposed format includes a sunset provision and could be altered by 2030, teams may hesitate to move first-rounders beyond that, since another lottery overhaul a few years down the road could drastically changed the value of those picks in the 2030s.

“I’m not trading any picks beyond 2029,” one general manager told Fischer.

As Fischer notes, teams selling off star players for draft-heavy packages in recent years have often prioritized far-off picks in the hopes that the team acquiring the veteran star will no longer be a contender in five to seven years, increasing the value of their future first-rounders. But the new system might actually encourage teams to try to compile as many picks as possible in a single draft between 2027-29 in the hopes of maximizing their lottery odds that year. One strategist told Fischer that he’d advise the Bucks to take that approach this offseason if they trade Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Here’s more from Fischer:

• Echoing earlier reporting from Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints, Fischer says rival teams are consistently pointing to the Thunder, who hold the 12th and 17th overall picks, as a strong candidate to trade up. If they stay at No. 12, they’d be “very much open” to moving their second first-rounder, Fischer writes, adding that executives are preparing for Oklahoma City to be aggressive on the trade market. “What’s to stop them from packaging No. 12, 17, and future picks to try to go get (Cameron) Boozer or (Caleb) Wilson?” one Eastern Conference exec asked Fischer. As I noted on Tuesday, I expect a move like that would probably require a significant overpay, given that no teams will be eager to help OKC add another young cornerstone.
• Rival teams are “working hard” to determine how likely the Clippers are to trade the fifth overall pick, according to Fischer, who says there’s “considerable curiosity” around the league about what L.A. will do with that selection.
• With the NCAA’s draft withdrawal deadline for early entrants looming, Fischer breaks down the math on the decisions that several notable prospects are facing, pointing out that star players at high-major schools have no problem earning between $4-6MM per season via NIL. In order to crack $6MM in first-year earnings in the NBA, a player would have to be drafted no lower than 11th. That’s why potential mid-to-late first-rounders like Koa Peat and Tyler Tanner are weighing whether it makes more sense to spend another year at college and try to increase their draft stock for 2027.