Timberwolves Notes: Love, Rubio
While everyone seems eager to marry large markets and larger than life superstars, Minnesota Timberwolves teammates Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio are proving stardom can be achieved just as readily by performance on the court. The Timberwolves duo, along with rookie Derrick Williams, represent the greatest contingent of talent Minnesota has sent to All-Star weekend festivities since Kevin Garnett, Tom Gugliotta, and Stephon Marbury in 1997. Some notes on the Timberwolves this All-Star weekend:
- Timberwolves general manager David Kahn took a risk by signing Kevin Love to a four-year extension with an opt-out after three years instead of the five-year maximum. But with Minnesota at 17-17, Love is buying into the Timberwolves, writes Hoops World's Stephen Litel.
- A big reason behind the Timberwolves success is the play of rookie point guard Ricky Rubio, who Suns rookie Markieff Morris said has "dimes for days," in comparing Rubio to Suns point guard Steve Nash (via Stefan Swiat at Suns.com)
- Magic Johnson sees some of his game in Rubio as well, as he tells the Minnesota Star Tribune.
- Lost in all the Timberwolves relative success are the New Orleans Hornets, whose acquired first-round pick from the Timberwolves (via the Clippers) is being devalued with each passing day, writes Benjamin Hoffman of the New York Times' Off the Dribble blog.
- Also from Hoffman's piece is mention of the Timberwolves overcrowded front court situation, with Love set in the rotation and Michael Beasley, Derrick Williams, Nikola Pekovic, Darko Milicic, and Anthony Randolph all vying for minutes. Those are some interesting trade pieces for the Timberwolves to use in building a solid supporting cast.
Kupchak, Lakers Not Expecting Any Moves
The Los Angeles Lakers dropped a game to the Phoenix Suns tonight and appear to be falling further away from their status as overwhelming Western Conference favorites from just a season ago.
After a failed attempt at a blockbuster trade for Chris Paul before the season, and a flurry of trade rumors involving Pau Gasol or Andrew Bynum, Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak told SI.com's Sam Amick he does not expect any big moves this season.
Despite popular opinion, a trade for Dwight Howard is hardly a cure-all for this Lakers' season. Howard's biggest strength is his ability to anchor a defense, and the Lakers are already quite formidable on that end, at fourth in the NBA at points per game allowed.
Their frontline of Bynum and Gasol is still perhaps the best frontline in the league and quite capable of generating high efficiency looks from the post and drawing double teams–and in Gasol's case, passing better out of those double teams. Howard might augment some of that, but his presence still leaves the Lakers woefully lacking.
Bryant already largely underutilizes Gasol and Bynum in the post, and according to previous reports, would look to do the same with Howard. The Lakers troubles remain on the offensive end.
The Lakers need to make some moves on the fringes of their roster. Replacing underproducing veterans like Fisher or World Peace with merely replacement level players would do wonders for the Lakers offense. Guys like Ramon Sessions or Aaron Brooks would provide significant upgrades.
Unfortunately, it appears the Lakers seem intent on standing pat.
Assessing Stocks: Golden State Warriors
Portfolio Review: The ownership and coaching staff has changed, but so much has remained the same for the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors are in the basketball equivalent of hell, which is ninth seed purgatory. They are not quite good enough to be in the playoffs, and not bad enough to get top level talent through the draft.
The backcourt is the team's strength between Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry, and Klay Thompson, but they also represent the best trade assets the team has going forward. Word is the Warriors are interested in Dwight Howard still. While it's doubtful they land him, it shows they are willing to blow things up for the right price. They need to. Even if it means taking a step or two back to start pushing forward again.
Prime Assets: The easy answer is Ellis, though the answer is not as easy as it was at the beginning of the season. Curry's ankle woes are a little concerning, and help obscure the Ellis vs. Curry debate a little.
Ellis is the Warriors' best player. Still, there are legitimate questions to how far a team can go with an undersized, high usage shooting guard not named Allen Iverson. If Ellis is your team's best player, what is the ceiling for your team? Ellis for draft picks or a frontcourt piece could work (the Utah Jazz, for example, have a plethora of big men and lack a dynamic perimeter threat). If the trade picks up an asset and drops the Warriors out of the middle of the first round and into a top ten pick over the next couple of years, it might even prove to benefit the team.
Worthless Stock: Andris Biedrins. Big, mobile big men are always going to have some value. But one on a big contract whose career is currently stalled by a phobia of free throw attempts?
The Rest: Curry should only be available for a near elite talent or top ten pick in this draft. For the former, given that Curry is on his rookie contract, he would probably have to be packaged with David Lee. Thompson could be a solid third guard on a good team eventually and merits holding onto. Dorell Wright might fetch a good first round pick for a potential playoff team, but is young, cheap, and understands his role well enough to be part of the answer going forward.
Assessing Stocks: Detroit Pistons
Portfolio Review: The Detroit Pistons are a mess. While their trade assets aren't entirely worthless, many of them are circling the drain, leaving them in a precarious position. The Pistons have invested more time and energy into their roster than they would likely receive back in return. If all the individual pieces were worthless, it might be easier to cut their losses, discard everything, and start over.
Right now the Pistons need to diversify their portfolio. They have some rotation pieces in the backcourt in Brandon Knight, Rodney Stuckey, Will Bynum, and Ben Gordon. But all four are essentially slightly different variations of the same inefficient scoring combo guard. The key is to figure which one, if any, fits best with Knight and dump the rest for whatever they can get.
Prime Assets: Greg Monroe and Knight are too young and promising to determine their full trade value, so short of a one-sided offer, it makes little sense to deal them. On a good team with a reasonable contract, Ben Gordon was once worth at least one playoff victory by himself a series. On the Pistons, his contract is a liability and his presence in the lineup hinders the development of younger players.
The leaves Tayshaun Prince as their best asset, whether as a standalone or packaged with one of their backcourt pieces. Preferably for a rotation quality pure point guard like Ramon Sessions or legitimate shooting guard to begin the process of figuring out how to best use Knight.
Worthless Stock: Charlie Villanueva. Villanueva is a toxic asset whose lone redeeming value lies in the possibility that he might salvage his value to the team or be freed this offseason via amnesty.
The Rest: Combo guards and forwards are a dime a dozen in the NBA, and those on the Pistons have hardly shown anything separating themselves from the pack. Knight and Monroe are the set pieces, any redundant skill sets or players that might take up developmental resources to those two (minutes, usage, etc.) should be considered in a deal, even if it only returns addition by subtraction.
Sheridan On Gasol, Bulls
Since the moment he was actually traded–only to later have it rescinded by David Stern–there have been many rumors on possible destinations for Los Angeles Lakers big man Pau Gasol.
Over at Sheridan Hoops, Chris Sheridan reports that Chicago Bulls point guard Derrick Rose has let his front office know that he would like to play with Gasol should the Bulls be able to build a package around Carlos Boozer and another player.
The Bulls have enviable front court depth and team chemistry, though Gasol might just be the type of player worth the risk of breaking that up. Gasol has a very versatile skill set and off the charts basketball IQ, though is being underutilized in the Lakers offense as almost exclusively a high post option when paired with Andrew Bynum and release valve for Bryant.
On paper Gasol would seem to be a perfect pairing with Joakim Noah. Unlike Bynum, Noah does not need touches to affect a game. This cedes the low block to Gasol to fully utilize his game. The intelligence and passing of both players should make for some interesting high-low passing.
Rose and Gasol would be a dynamic and intelligent pick and roll pairing, and Gasol's ability to draw and pass out of double teams would open up driving lanes for Rose.
The tandem of Gasol and Noah would upgrade an already stingy Bulls defense, consolidating Boozer's offensive game with a quality defender.
The question is why the Lakers would want to trade Gasol for a similar but lesser offensive skill set that diminishes their greatest strength, defense. The Lakers need a point guard, and while steady this season, backup C.J. Watson probably is not a significant enough upgrade at the position to warrant downgrading to Boozer.
A possibility that checks out on the ESPN Trade Machine that makes some sense is a deal sending forwards Boozer and Luol Deng for Gasol and Matt Barnes.
Assessing Stocks: Denver Nuggets
Portfolio Review: Where you value the Denver Nuggets assets and roster depends on how much value you place in superstars. On paper, the Nuggets are stocked two deep at every position and feature almost every desirable skill set a coach could want to plug into any given situation.
In Ty Lawson and Nene Hilario, the Nuggets have two offensive threats to occupy multiple defenders and a number of other players on the wings who can create off of their primary action. They have solid defenders and energetic athleticism. And yet, head coach George Karl is faced with the lingering question, “can you win without superstars?”
“There are only two or three superstars in the league anyways,” Karl said early in the season.
There is some truth to that. On any given night the Nuggets have everything Karl needs at his disposal to compete with the best teams in the NBA. The depth and versatility of the roster can in fact replicate most of the value of an elite player.
The issue is consistency and health. Over the course of a season there will be injuries (like the one Danilo Gallinari suffered) and inconsistent play, and the value of an elite player like LeBron James or Dwight Howard, is they have the ability to patch holes for stretches of time. Those players bring the same level of play every night and are able to take on more without losing efficiency.
Prime Assets: The Nuggets are in an interesting position. Because each player is above average to good, virtually everyone on the team is in play for the right price. And because their depth, the Nuggets have the luxury of upgrading talent at any position by combining multiple players without a drastic drop in quality.
Even in the era of point guards, possessing two starting quality point guards would seem superfluous. Andre Miller on his own would probably fetch a rotation player, but the Nuggets already have their fair share of those. Intrigue picks up, however, if the Nuggets were able to combine Miller with another starting quality player, a young prospect, and draft pick.
Worthless Stock: Ty Lawson. But only because the return on him would likely never exceed the value of his contract or the value of the player. So perhaps the word here shouldn’t be worthless, but priceless.
The Rest: The rest of the roster is simply intriguing filler to place a bigger trade. The Nuggets do not need to build around the fringes. Improvement will either come from within, or converting multiple assets into a blockbuster deal.
Assessing Stocks: Dallas Mavericks
Portfolio Review: The Dallas Mavericks are an interesting defending champion in that while they are technically defending their title, they are not doing so wholeheartedly. Yes, so long as they have Dirk Nowitzki operating near peak form and a set of versatile role players that play their role they will be a tough out.
But so much of what they did last summer is geared towards what they hope to do next summer. The Mavericks hope to land one or two big name free agents next summer to set themselves up for the next few years. Any transactions they make this year will be done with their cap space and future in mind, not with competing this year. If they can land a deal that satisfies both (like a player on an expiring contract), so be it.
Prime assets: Shawn Marion is the piece the Mavericks would like to move most, preferably after the season. He is still a versatile contributor on a playoff team, and as much as the Mavericks would value him for this playoff run, they're just as interested in getting his salary off the books so they have enough room to sign two max free agents. If a deal comes up offering a rotation player with salary relief, do they pull the trigger?
Other than that, Rodrigue Beaubois represents the lone intriguing young talent they have. He is still on his rookie contract so he would have to be packaged with a veteran on a short contract to get full value in return, but the Mavericks have plenty of those.
Worthless stock: Brendan Haywood is the other player holding up a large chunk of the salary cap space the Mavericks would like to use this summer. As much as they would prefer to move him, and while he is a serviceable center, the biggest value Haywood has comes from amnestying him–a value that goes out the window in a trade.
The rest: Lamar Odom is on the last year of his contract and when right he makes the Mavericks an intriguing matchup problem, which should appeal to both creating cap space and defending their title. The same goes for Jason Kidd and Jason Terry. The rest is irrelevant interchangeable pieces that the Mavericks are taking a quick look at while looking towards next season.
Odds & Ends: Lakers, Knicks, Celtics, Bulls
Teams in three of the top markets in the NBA, the Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers, and New York Knicks, are struggling through disappointing seasons (though the Knicks have picked up lately under the promise of Linsanity). A fourth big-market club, the Chicago Bulls, now has a potential injury problem.
- Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports reports officials from the Lakers attended a private workout for Gilbert Arenas. Arenas was amnestied this off-season by the Orlando Magic, and is hoping the same knee procedure that benefited Kobe Bryant in the off-season can produce similar results.
- Amare Stoudemire returns Monday and Al Iannazzone of Newsday wonders how the Knicks' offense will look when Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony return. Stoudemire seems a natural fit alongside Lin. His skill set has always been maximized alongside a pick and roll point guard. Anthony, however, is one of the best isolation scorers in the NBA and the ball tends to stop in his hands.
- Derrick Rose sat Sunday's game against the Celtics out with a back injury and will meet with some specialists Monday in Chicago reports Neil Hayes at the Chicago Sun-Times. Rose had similar back issues in high school, but this is the first time he's had trouble since. The Bulls lack the star power of some of the other team, but compensate with their depth and chemistry. That chemistry, however, still depends on Rose operating near peak form.
- Brandon Bass is ailing, and Jermaine O'Neal is often injured. The Celtics have been looking for front court depth for some time. Today they got some good minutes from rookie JuJuan Johnson and veteran Chris Wilcox writes Green Street's Mike Petraglia.
- Paul Flannery of WEEI.com wonders if Rajon Rondo is the centerpiece of the next generation of Celtics, or will he prove to be too unorthodox for a team minus three future Hall of Famers?
Assessing Stocks: Cleveland Cavaliers
Portfolio Review: The Cleveland Cavaliers were dealt a blow to their season with news that center Anderson Varejao is out indefinitely with a broken wrist. While the injury probably drops the Cavaliers out of contention for the Eastern Conference’s 8th playoff seed, it likely is in their best long-term interest for that very reason.
The Cavaliers are a rebuilding project. And a much better one than originally thought due to rookie Kyrie Irving outplaying all expectations. But building around a point guard like Irving can be a double-edged sword.
Point guards like Irving (see Paul, Chris) are good enough to get a team into playoff contention fairly quickly because they mask so many deficiencies. However, those deficiencies still exist and pushing forward too fast (see the New Orleans Hornets with Chris Paul) without addressing them can have serious repercussions as the team begins to reach its potential. In a way, this was part of the problem the Cavaliers had when building around LeBron James.
Instead, this team should be stockpiling as many assets as possible while developing young players to try and acquire the type of elite talent that is generally only found with top-ten draft picks.
Prime Assets: Previously the Cavaliers were not attempting to trade Varejao, though his injury might make them more willing. Varejao is the type of player that is desirable for a number of contenders and those sitting in the bottom half of playoff brackets looking to take a step up.
Ideally Varejao would return a younger, legitimate rotation player to grow with Irving and Tristan Thompson–a player who mirrors some of the same strengths and weaknesses of Varejao–or a first round pick in the 15-20 range.
Barring a Varejao trade, point guard Ramon Sessions has been a steady backup point guard for most of his career and remains the only other player on the Cavaliers likely to return a viable rotation player. For a team like the Cavaliers that needs help everywhere, they cannot afford the luxury of redundant skill sets among their best players.
Worthless stock: Tempting as it is to throw Antawn Jamison‘s name into this slot, there is always a team out there somewhere willing to take a shot at a scorer off the bench on an expiring contract. These contracts are ultimately movable, however, generally only bring back other bad or expiring contracts. Still, there is value for moving a contributing veteran to free up developmental minutes for players that might have a future with the team.
The rest: The rest of the teams is young enough to have some redeeming value (i.e. potential), but too young and too unproven to bring back anything in return. This should be an evaluation season for the young guys, and to do so they need as many minutes as possible.
Odds & Ends: Hornets, Clippers, Knicks, Magic
- Ramona Shelburne of ESPN Los Angeles reports the Los Angeles Clippers are pursuing J.R. Smith. Their sales pitch includes Chauncey Billups vacated starting slot, a chance to showcase his game on a contending team, and his familiarity with Chris Paul–and their shared agent, Leon Rose.
- Also pursuing Smith, according to the same report, is Carmelo Anthony. The New York Knicks have slightly more money to offer with the prorated $2.5MM mini-mid-level exception, and Leon Rose likewise represents Anthony.
- Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel wonders if Jason Richardson can be a reliable go-to guy after a breakout game against the Milwaukee Bucks. If so, it would relieve a lot of the pressure for an immediate roster overhaul for general manager Otis Smith and the Orlando Magic.
- Naturally after watching Richardson's performance over the Bucks comes reports from Schmitz that a disgruntled Dwight Howard would like to see the ball more in the fourth quarter.