Assessing Stocks: Chicago Bulls
Portfolio Review: The Chicago Bulls are veritable billionaires in terms of roster quality. Third on ESPN's future power rankings (Insider required), the Bulls are young, deep, and talented. Furthermore, their success hinges greatly on the chemistry established by reigning MVP Derrick Rose and head coach Tom Thibodeau. The Bulls lack the sheer star power of the Miami Heat, but can close the gap through its defensive system.
That of course means any drastic roster change disrupts that chemistry, and as such the Bulls are amongst the most risk-averse teams during this season.
Prime assets: Rose is untouchable, one of the top five players in the NBA. That leaves Joakim Noah and Luol Deng as the prime trade chips with one caveat. The only deal worth disrupting the Bulls chemistry is one that lands a Dwight Howard-level talent.
Worthless stock: Carlos Boozer has a large contract and enough flaws for other teams to think twice about taking on that contract. But worthless stock does not mean worthless player. In this case it simply means Boozer's value as a player on this roster probably exceeds what he would get in return in a potential trade.
The rest: The rest of the roster features a number of interchangeable parts that fit specific roles on this team. Tweaking on the fringes of the roster would simply bring in other interchangeable parts. One interesting name brought up by our own Daniel Seco is Ray Allen for Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer–a move that would somewhat consolidate the two players' skill sets into one player.
Odds & Ends: Howard, Kobe, Pistons
- Over at the New York Times, Peter Kerasotis writes the Magic feel that during the lockout too many people got into Dwight Howard's ear, convincing him to leave. Now that they are able to communicate with Howard, they would like to do some convincing of their own.
- Matt Moore over at CBS Eye on Sports believes Kobe Bryant sent a message with his recent comments to the media, either improve the roster or suffer the wrath of his 30-shot nights.
- There is no timetable for Cavaliers rookie point guard Kyrie Irving's return from a concussion reports Ohio.com's Nate Ulrich. This should give Ramon Sessions some time to improve his trade value.
- Meanwhile in Detroit, MLive.com's David Mayo reports that the Pistons backcourt is almost healthy and the team is undecided about the long-term solution to their crowded backcourt.
Assessing Stocks: Charlotte Bobcats
Portfolio review: This is the basketball equivalent of declaring bankruptcy. Michael Jordan mortgaged the team's future for one playoff run and the Bobcats are finally paying the ultimate price.
This is an atrocious team playing under a perfect storm of terrible circumstances (condensed season, injuries, not practice time) with nary a potential All-Star on its roster. On the bright side the team has almost purged all of its toxic assets and is under better management, leaving some hope the team can start stockpiling talent and finally begin to build the foundations of something.
Prime assets: Tyrus Thomas is the only player on the roster who might be able to fetch an established rotation player or mid first-round pick. Last year's draft picks Kemba Walker and Bismack Biyombo might be the perfect bankruptcy assets–players with defined NBA roles with room for growth beyond that whose immediate impact is so negligible that it won't prevent them from losing enough for their badly needed top-five pick.
Walker and Biyombo should grow to be perfect complementary players to the star or stars the Bobcats hope to draft in the next two years, or be good enough trade assets to find those players.
Toxic assets: At some point this summer either Corey Maggette or DeSagana Diop will be amnestied. The other shopped as an expiring contract. Boris Diaw is almost as bloated as his contract, which is thankfully almost over.
The rest: The Bobcats have an abundance of what I like to call trade filler across their roster. Rotation players with at least one viable NBA skill attached to a contract that might be slightly overpaid, but still falls within perfectly reasonable for a rotation player. Theoretically a team would attach these contracts to the prime asset in a trade to make contract figures work.
Gerald Henderson, D.J. Augustin, and Matt Carroll would all qualify. Unfortunately the Bobcats lack any prime assets to attach these valuable contracts to. The best thing about this roster is that it's almost completely liquidated.
Assessing Stocks: Boston Celtics
Portfolio Review: There is a difference between a team maxed out at mediocrity, and a championship team that has aged its way there. The Boston Celtics find themselves looking up at the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls, but have just enough fight left to compete and perhaps take advantage of the right matchup or injury to make one last run.
On the one hand, Danny Ainge has expressed no fear in blowing this up and rebuilding should the opportunity present itself. On the other, the Celtics gave up all their young assets save for Rajon Rondo in building this team. And years of building on the fringes around the Big Three have left the team bereft of young assets and high picks that teams covet in trades.
Prime assets: Ainge has expressed a willingness to move any of the Big Three. Unfortunately each of them are long past the wrong side of 30 and short of finding a sudden contender holding onto another team's potential lottery pick to deal with–as the Clippers were this summer holding the Timberwolves unprotected pick–most teams with prime young assets aren't going to give away great potential for one or two years of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, or Ray Allen.
Their absolute ceiling might be a return of boom or bust prospects (think Michael Beasley with the Miami Heat) and mid-to-late first round picks.
That leaves Rajon Rondo as the Celtics best trade asset, and the only one capable of returning a sure All-Star. He also remains the Celtics best player. Which means any deal involving Rondo should be made for one last run or at the beginning of a complete teardown of this one-time championship team.
Worthless stock: Just about everything else. From Chris Wilcox to Jermaine O'Neal to Keyon Dooling, the rest of the Celtics rotation is comprised of replacement level players–generic skill sets whose contributions could be matched by plucking younger developmental players with bigger potential. The roster has limited flexibility to improve and the entirety of this season depends on the health and legs of Allen, Garnett, Pierce, and Rondo.
The one exception, diversifying: One trade the Celtics might be able to make without blowing up their playoffs hopes is moving Ray Allen for two rotation players of a lesser quality. Shooting is an easy skill set to find, even if it's not as potent as Allen. And more depth and versatility among the lineup might give the Celtics just enough punch.
Assessing Stocks: Atlanta Hawks
Portfolio review: At 17-9 the Atlanta Hawks are where they have been the past several seasons, stuck somewhere in the middle between the Eastern Conference's elite and bottom dwellers, with a large gap separating them in both directions.
Capped out for the foreseeable future, the Hawks would appear stuck in purgatory–good enough to make the playoffs, but not a threat once there–unless one of their players buck a trend of marginal, incremental improvement and takes a giant leap, or a major roster overhaul.
Prime assets: Al Horford is the lone untouchable asset barring a Dwight Howard trade demand to Atlanta, leaving forward Josh Smith as the best trade chip the Hawks have. Smith is 26, a borderline All-Star, and still retains enough potential to leave some wondering if there is one more level of play in him.
Smith has two years at $25.6MM remaining on his contract, a very reasonable deal that matches up well with other similar borderline All-Star players (think Monta Ellis) and change. And enough talent to inquire about younger, promising but flawed players like DeMarcus Cousins. Smith remains the lone trade chip that could bring drastic change.
Worthless stock: Joe Johnson is untradeable, tying up significant cap resources and stifling all roster flexibility. The only solace the Hawks can take is his apparent All-Star production and the amnesty provision as insurance for the moment he shows decline.
Marvin Williams is overpaid at $7.5MM this season, but not significantly so. Ideally he would be used as a moveable contract to attach to a young, cheap talent to make salaries work. Unfortunately the Hawks lack such assets.
The Rest: Kirk Hinrich has one year left on his deal in a market that values expiring contracts less than one would think. Jeff Teague might be worth a late first rounder and his room for growth is probably better than anything the Hawks could get in return.
If the Hawks ever decided to blow things up, the combination of Teague and Smith, along with amnestying Joe Johnson, might return enough cap space and prospects to begin rebuilding with Al Horford in earnest.
Cavaliers Not Trying To Trade Varejao
Terry Pluto of the Plains Dealer writes that multiple sources report the Cleveland Cavaliers are not seeking trades for veteran big man Anderson Varejao and will not make a deal unless another teams wows them with an offer.
Varejao, 29, is off to a fantastic start this season averaging a double-double at 11 PPG and 11.8 RPG. He is one of the better defensive big men in the NBA, provides value on offense without a high usage or plays being called for him, and at $7.7MM this season is on a reasonable contract.
In short, he is a perfect fit on a near contender looking to for a piece to put them over the top.
The reports could be typical posturing, Varejao has enough value for the Cavaliers to be patient and holdout for the best deal possible, but it would also make sense in the long term for the Cavaliers to deal their best trade asset.
Tristan Thompson, this past summer's no. 4 overall pick, shares similar strengths and weakness with Varejao, making their skill sets redundant and hampering their time together on the court.
Varejao is only 29, but plays a reckless, energetic style of basketball that leaves him susceptible to injury. He is at his peak right now and holding onto him is a gamble that he will still be at or near this level when rookies Thompson and Kyrie Irving enter the beginning of their primes.
Trading Varejao would hurt this season, all but ending the Cavaliers unlikely bid for the Eastern Conference's 8th playoff seed, but in the long run freeing minutes for Thompson and securing another top-10 pick in a deep draft–on top of whatever assets a trade would return–might be in the Cavaliers best long-term interests.
Clippers Looking To Replace The Injured Billups
Eric Pincus of Hoopsworld.com reports the Los Angeles Clippers are looking to replaced injured guard Chauncey Billups, who is out for the season with a torn achilles tendon.
"Billups, more so than point guard Chris Paul, has that crucial championship experience that the Clippers will need as they head into what could be an unprecedented postseason run. The Clippers will be able to replace Chauncey’s production, to an extent, throughout the regular season but having an NBA Finals MVP on the floor in the closing moments of vital playoff games?
That’s tough to overcome."
Combo guard Mo Williams and Randy Foye should be able to replace the 15 points and four assists Billups was contributing per night. And while Billups' veteran leadership will be missed on the court, Chris Paul is an old hand at leading teams through tough situations.
Billups' injury doe little to change the Clippers priorities. With the acquisition of Kenyon Martin to shore up the frontcourt, the Clippers most glaring need was athletic size on the wings where veterans Caron Butler and Ryan Gomes are the onlyl swingmen with ideal size, if not athleticism.
J.R. Smith should return from China soon, and remains an intriguing option as firepower off the bench, though he may command more than the minimum contract the Clippers can offer.
The Clippers are also armed with a $3.93MM and $2.85MM trade exception remaining from the Chris Paul trade, though their lack of a first round pick in this draft might leave options limited. With the team built around Paul and Blake Griffin, however, this depth is more luxury than necessity this first season.
Clippers Links: Griffin, Billups, Martin, Smith, Butler
Everything is roses for the Los Angeles Clippers, who won tonight in impressive fashion against the Washington Wizards. Mark Heisler of the New York Times writes how this impressive team came together and why they go "beyond mere highlights to spectacular." In other Clippers news:
- Don't count Blake Griffin out of the slam dunk contest just yet, reports Dan Feldman of ESPN Los Angeles.
- Feldman also wrote a great piece on how the Clippers and Chauncey Billups convinced Kenyon Martin to come to Los Angeles.
- Martin is expected to join the Clippers on Monday, reports USA Today's Michael Falgoust.
- Caron Butler, another unheralded free agent signing by the Clippers, is starting to find his comfort zone in Los Angeles, writes Michael Lee of the Washington Post.
- Martin isn't the only player returning from China that the Clippers are hoping to sign. Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times reports that the Clippers now have their eye on J.R. Smith.
Knicks Notes: Point Guard, Lin, D’Antoni
The New York Knicks, searching for answers all season long, appeared to have found one–at least for a night–in their win over the New Jersey Nets. Here is a bit more on the Knicks:
- Charles Barkley points out the Knicks need a point guard, writes Al Iannazzone of Newsday, who gives a quick rundown on the point guards currently on the roster.
- Personally, I think Ramon Sessions is an intriguing option for the Knicks.
- Of course, they may have already had one one the roster writes Ian Begley of ESPN New York following Jeremy Lin's 25-point, nine-assist performance.
- It's Lin-sanity! reports Frank Isola of the New York Daily News, who thinks Lin could see time in the starting lineup until Baron Davis returns.
- Perhaps tonight's Lin-inspired performance is why Mike D'Antoni never thought to panic amid speculation about his job security (via ESPN New York's Ian Begley).
Trade Machine: Sessions To Knicks
The New York Knicks, losers of 11 of their past 14 games, need a point guard. The Cavaliers, having an excellent backup point guard in Ramon Sessions, need as many young pieces around their star rookie point guard Kyrie Irving as possible.
Despite the Knicks previous reluctance to part with last year's prized second round pick Landry Fields, a trade package centered around Fields and Sessions would appear to make sense for both teams.
The Knicks offense has sputtered out of the gate this season, averaging 94.7 ppg–good for 14th in the NBA. They are currently 24th in the league with 18.9 assists per game. Those two aspects of the game had previously been staples of a Mike D'Antoni offense.
Sessions, currently averaging 9.2 points and 4.8 assists per game in just slightly over 20 minutes, would provide the Knicks with the pick and roll ball handler the Knicks sorely lack, allowing D'Antoni to open up his system and properly utilize Amare Stoudemire.
Fields, a surprising second round find, would provide, at worst, quality depth on the wings for a team that leans heavily on Antawn Jamison, Alonzo Gee, Anthony Parker, and Daniel Gibson.
While the Knicks have Baron Davis waiting in the wings, relying on a player with his history of injuries and conditioning troubles in the condensed lockout season could be a recipe for disaster. Not that playing Anthony in a point forward role hasn't been so far this season.
Even though Sessions likely would not be the long term answer, the Knicks have a lot of decisions to make this offseason, and it would be best to evaluate D'Antoni and his system in its natural habitat, with a point guard that can execute his offense.