Grizzlies Notes: Adams’ Absence, Jackson, Williams, Morant
Now that they know they can’t count on having Steven Adams back for the playoffs, the Grizzlies must embrace the new identity they’ve been establishing without Adams – and his offensive rebounding and screen setting – available, writes Damichael Cole of The Memphis Commercial Appeal.
As Cole outlines, that means Jaren Jackson Jr. may face more challenging defensive assignments in the postseason and that everyone will have to help out on the glass, including guards Ja Morant and Desmond Bane.
Cole also suggests that the Grizzlies should look to take advantage of the added versatility of their Adams-less lineups, since having David Roddy, Xavier Tillman, or Santi Aldama on the court makes the team more switchable on defense.
Here’s more on the Grizzlies:
- Jackson believes he should win this season’s Defensive Player of the Year award, telling Tim MacMahon of ESPN that he wants it “bad.” However, while Jackson’s ability to protect the rim and anchor the Grizzlies’ defense was his greatest asset during the regular season, his scoring on offense might ultimately determine how high the team’s ceiling is this spring, according to MacMahon, who notes that the big man averaged 22.7 points per game on 51.1% shooting in the nine games Morant missed in March.
- Writing for the Commercial Appeal, Cole looks back at the Grizzlies’ decision to select Ziaire Williams at No. 10 in the 2021 draft. Williams spent much of the 2022/23 season playing in the G League and battling injuries. Meanwhile, Trey Murphy – whom the Pelicans selected with the No. 17 pick they received from Memphis in the trade that also included the No. 10 pick, Adams, and Jonas Valanciunas – has enjoyed a breakout year in New Orleans, averaging 20.4 points per game on .506/.453/.903 shooting in his last 18 games.
- In an exclusive report, Gus Garcia-Roberts and Molly Hensley-Clancy of The Washington Post provide more details on the off-court incidents that Morant was involved in during the past year and suggest that local police didn’t investigate those incidents as thoroughly as they could have. The Post’s duo identified and interviewed the teenager who was punched by the Grizzlies guard in a pickup game and spoke to a shoe salesman at a Memphis mall who said he was shaken up after allegedly being threatened by Morant.
What To Watch For On Final Day Of Regular Season
Sunday represents the 174th and final day of the NBA’s 2022/23 regular season, with all 30 teams in action at either 12:00 pm Central time (1:00 pm ET) or 2:30 CT (3:30 ET).
Not all of today’s games are must-see matchups, but there’s plenty at stake on Sunday, including several of the postseason seeds in the Western Conference.
Here’s what to watch for on the final day of the ’22/23 regular season:
Western Conference playoff seeding
The Nuggets (No. 1), Grizzlies (No. 2), Kings (No. 3), Suns (No. 4), and Thunder (No. 10) have locked in their seeds in the West, but none of those teams know which opponent they’ll be facing in the first round of the playoffs — or in the first round of the play-in tournament, in OKC’s case.
The results of four games today will determine which clubs end up holding the Nos. 5-9 seeds in the West. Those games are as follows:
- New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves
- Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers
- Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers
- Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns
There are 16 different combinations of potential winners in those four contests, so we won’t run through every single scenario, but they can all be found right here. Here are a few details, in simplified terms:
- The Clippers, Warriors, and Lakers currently rank fifth, sixth, and seventh, respectively, and would hold those spots if all three teams win today. The Clippers can’t fall further than No. 7, while Golden State and the Lakers could end up as low as No. 8.
- The loser of the Pelicans/Timberwolves game will be the No. 9 seed. New Orleans could move as high as No. 5 with a win in that game, while Minnesota would slide up to No. 7 or No. 8 with a victory.
- The Lakers will be the No. 8 seed if they lose to Utah. If they win, they’ll mostly likely end up at No. 6 or No. 7, though there’s one scenario where they could defeat the Jazz and still drop to No. 8 (if the Pelicans, Warriors, and Suns all win).
The Suns will be resting most of their key players, including Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton, on Sunday, so it would be a surprise if the Clippers lose that one, even though the game is in Phoenix. A Clippers win would lock the team into a first-round matchup against the Suns, which isn’t the most desirable outcome, but the Clips would risk slipping into play-in range with a loss, so they can’t get too clever.
Similarly, with the Blazers in all-out tank mode, it’s hard to imagine the Warriors losing that game in Portland, since doing so could result in a slide to No. 7 or No. 8.
It’s worth noting that all four of these games tip off at 2:30 pm CT, so no teams will take the floor knowing any outcomes of the other three games.
Draft and lottery positioning
There are several draft-related storylines worth monitoring today. Here are a few of the most important ones:
The Mavericks’ top-10 protected pick
With a loss on Sunday, the Mavericks would secure, at worst, the NBA’s 10th-worst record, giving them nearly an 80% chance to keep the top-10 protected first-round pick they owe the Knicks.
If the Jazz win and the Mavericks lose, the two teams would finish in a tie for the ninth-worst record and Dallas’ odds of keeping its first-rounder could increase significantly. If the Mavs were to win a coin-flip tiebreaker in that scenario, they’d have nearly a 97% chance to keep their pick.
On the other hand, a win today might put Dallas in a tie with the Thunder or Bulls for the league’s 10th-worst record and could significantly reduce the Mavs’ odds of hanging onto that first-rounder, depending on the results of the tiebreaker.
The fifth lottery spot
A loss today would assure the Trail Blazers of having the fifth-best odds in the lottery. That would give them a 10.5% shot at the No. 1 overall pick and a 42.1% chance to move into the top four.
A win could move Portland into a tie with the Magic and/or Pacers, potentially reducing those odds to 9.0% and 37.2%, respectively.
The Rockets’ second-round pick
The Pacers and Celtics will be keeping a close on the Rockets and Spurs today. As we previously outlined, Indiana will get Houston’s second-round pick if it’s at No. 32, while Boston will get it if it’s No. 33.
A Houston win and a San Antonio loss today would ensure that pick moves to No. 33; a Houston loss and a San Antonio win would lock it in at No. 32.
If both teams win or lose, that pick would be TBD. Where it lands would hinge on the results of a coin-flip tiebreaker and May’s draft lottery (if the two teams are tied, whichever one gets the lower pick in round one gets the higher pick in round two).
The Pelicans’ swap rights
The Pelicans have the right to swap first-round picks with the Lakers. Heading into today’s games, the two teams have identical 42-39 records.
However, even if the Pelicans win and the Lakers lose, New Orleans won’t necessarily end up using its swap rights — if the Lakers were to make the playoffs via the play-in tournament and the Pelicans lose in the play-in, New Orleans’ pick would be the higher one, regardless of regular season record.
Teams with open roster spots
The Jazz and Nets filled their open roster spots on Saturday, while the Grizzlies also made a series of roster moves in preparation for the playoffs. That leaves just five teams with open roster spots heading into Sunday. Those clubs are as follows:
Open 15-man roster spot:
- Houston Rockets
- Los Angeles Lakers
- New York Knicks
Open two-way slot:
- New Orleans Pelicans
- Phoenix Suns
It would be a surprise if the Rockets, Lakers, and Knicks don’t fill their roster openings today. There’s essentially no downside to signing a player to a multiyear contract that only includes one day’s worth of guaranteed money, with a team option or non-guaranteed salary for 2023/24.
The Pelicans and Suns could also make two-way signings today, though that’s a little less likely, since it’s harder to convince free agents to sign two-year two-way contracts, and those players won’t be eligible for the postseason.
It’s also worth noting that two of the Trail Blazers‘ hardship 10-day contracts (for Skylar Mays and Shaquille Harrison) expired overnight on Saturday, so if they want to bring those players back for their regular season finale, they’ll need to re-sign them on Sunday.
Atlantic Notes: Maxey, Nurse, Knicks, Bridges, Celtics
Sixers guard Tyrese Maxey will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason and has put himself in position for a major payday by averaging a career-high 20.3 points per game on .481/.434/.845 shooting in 60 games (33.6 MPG) this season, writes Sean Deveney of Heavy.com.
Assuming they look to negotiate a new deal with Maxey, the Sixers may want to use recent rookie extension recipients like Jordan Poole and Tyler Herro as points of comparison. Poole signed for four years and $123MM (plus incentives) last offseason, while Herro got $120MM (plus incentives) on his four-year extension. However, rival executives who spoke to Deveney believe the 22-year-old’s value has increased beyond that.
“They might have thought there was room to negotiate there,” an Eastern Conference executive told Deveney. “But look at what the guy has done. He’s gotten better at every turn, his work ethic is really, really amazing from everyone around him. That’s what stands out. This guy is only getting better. Probably, there’s no negotiation, they’re going to have to max him out.”
The exact value of a maximum-salary extension for Maxey would depend on where the 2024/25 salary cap lands, but it could exceed $40MM per year. For what it’s worth, the Sixers could have Tobias Harris and his $39.3MM expiring salary coming off the books in the summer of 2024.
Here’s more from around the Atlantic:
- Whether or not Nick Nurse remains with the Raptors beyond this season, he’ll coach Team Canada in the 2023 World Cup and 2024 Olympics, writes Doug Smith of The Toronto Star. Within the same story, Smith points out that this week’s Jeff Dowtin drama could have been avoided if Toronto had done a better job finding a reliable backup point guard instead of having to rely on a player on a two-way contract.
- In a pair of subscriber-only stories for The New York Post, Peter Botte explores how president of basketball operations Leon Rose set up the Knicks for future success despite missing out on Donovan Mitchell, while Brian Lewis suggests that Nets forward Mikal Bridges has room to continue getting better even after taking a big step forward since arriving in Brooklyn.
- Speaking to Shams Charania of The Athletic, Celtics forward Jaylen Brown said that he and Jayson Tatum have been “incredibly successful” together despite some calls over the years to break them up. “At this point, we’re part of each other’s destiny,” Brown said. “The only thing that could put the ribbon on top is winning a championship.”
- In an interesting feature for The Athletic, Jared Weiss takes a deep dive into the Maine Celtics’ season, focusing on a few of the players who spent time with Boston’s G League affiliate, including Luka Samanic, who eventually earned a call-up to Utah, and Eric Demers, who hopes to work in basketball when his playing days are over.
Western Notes: Markkanen, Lakers, Warriors, Porter
A native of Finland, Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen is required by law to serve in the country’s military before he reaches the age of 30. According to Ramona Shelburne of ESPN, Markkanen intends to fulfill that mandatory service during the coming offseason.
“Lauri has always said he was going to do this,” Markkanen’s agent Michael Lelchitski said of his client. “It’s important for him as a citizen to fulfill his civic duty and not have any kind of preferential treatment just because he is a famous athlete.”
As Shelburne writes, Markkanen has had to postpone his service a couple times already, including last spring when the Cavaliers made the play-in tournament — those games conflicted with his tentative reporting date.
According to Shelburne, Markkanen will complete his service at the Defence Forces’ Sports School in the southern part of Helsinki. She adds that many of the school’s conscripts are professional or amateur athletes, whose primary task during their service is to “train reconnaissance squads for emergency and wartime conditions.”
“Of course I’d rather be working out like I normally do (in the offseason), but I’ve heard they do a good job of combining the two,” Markkanen said. “You’re able to do your job working as an athlete and your basic training at the same time.”
Here’s more from around the Western Conference:
- Lakers stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis are proud of their team for clinching an above-.500 finish after getting off to a 2-10 start, notes Dave McMenamin of ESPN. Davis said that he and James credit the team’s in-season additions for helping to lead that turnaround. “We pointed to some guys and were like, ‘We thank y’all. It didn’t look like we were going that way to start the season,'” Davis said. “Man, we just kept pushing and kept grinding. And obviously the guys that were able to come in here helped us get some more wins and ultimately finish above .500.”
- Now that Andrew Wiggins is back with the Warriors, the defending champions look like a legitimate threat to win another title, contends Sam Amick of The Athletic. Veteran sharpshooter Klay Thompson agrees with that assessment, despite the fact that Golden State still hasn’t even secured a top-six seed in the West. “I don’t see a team who can beat us in a seven-game series when we’re healthy,” Thompson said on Friday, according to ESPN’s Kendra Andrews.
- Considered a wing when he first arrived in Houston, Kevin Porter Jr. has fully embraced his transition to a point guard role, writes Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle (subscription required). Porter feels good about the strides he made in that role in 2022/23 and believes the Rockets showed growth as a whole, even if their 21-60 record doesn’t reflect that. “I feel better about my process this season,” Porter said. “I definitely made improvements. Definitely seeing what I have to work on going into the offseason. I think it was a good year individually for myself. As a team, I definitely don’t think the record shows our improvement.”
Mavs Notes: Elimination, Draft Pick, Luka, THJ, Kyrie
Entering the day on Friday, the Mavericks could still have secured a play-in spot if they’d won their last two games of the season and the Thunder lost to Memphis on Sunday. However, Dallas essentially decided to throw in the towel on its chase for a postseason berth, sitting a number of regulars (including Kyrie Irving) and limiting Luka Doncic to essentially a quarter of action.
Unsurprisingly, the Mavericks did indeed lose their game to Chicago, officially eliminating them from the play-in hunt. As Tim MacMahon of ESPN writes, head coach Jason Kidd told reporters before the game that the decision was made by team owner Mark Cuban and general manager Nico Harrison.
“We were fighting for our lives, and understanding this is a situation we’re in, but the organization has made the decision to change,” Kidd said. “So, you know, we have to go by that and that’s something that happens. So the guys that are playing, we got to go out there and put our best foot forward, and we talked about that this afternoon.”
Speaking after the game, Kidd said that the move was less about “waving the white flag” and more about prioritizing the future.
“It’s decisions sometimes are hard in this business,” he said, per MacMahon. “We’re trying to build a championship team. With this decision, this is maybe a step back. But hopefully it leads to going forward.”
Asked if he agreed with the decision to prioritize the future instead of the present by sitting players on Friday, Kidd replied, “Those are my bosses, so yes.”
Kidd confirmed after Friday’s loss that Doncic and Irving definitely won’t be playing in Sunday’s regular season finale, with other regulars likely to join them on the sidelines (Twitter link via Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News).
Here’s more on the Mavs:
- As Tim Cato of The Athletic observes, one more loss on Sunday would ensure that the Mavericks finish with sole control of the NBA’s 10th-worst record. That would give them approximately an 80% chance of hanging onto the top-10 protected first-round pick they owe the Knicks — there would be about a 20% chance of a team near the bottom of the lottery standings leapfrogging them and pushing them out of the top 10, in which case they’d have to send the pick to New York.
- Within a separate ESPN.com story about what’s next in Dallas, MacMahon says there’s a “strong sense of urgency” to expedite the process of building a contender around Doncic. Team sources have admitted there’s concern that Luka could request a trade as soon as the summer of 2024 if Dallas doesn’t take a significant step forward by then, MacMahon reports.
- Appearing on The Carton Show on FS1 (Twitter video link), Tim Hardaway Sr. said that Doncic and Irving aren’t leaders, and referred to Doncic as a “crybaby” due to his frequent in-game complaints to referees. As Callie Caplan of The Dallas Morning News writes, Mavericks wing Tim Hardaway Jr. asked to speak to reporters in order to distance himself from those comments. “I disagree with it 1000%,” the younger Hardaway said, stressing that his views both Doncic and Irving as good leaders. “… It’s disappointing that I have to come out here and say (this). I love him to death, like I said, my dad. He made a mistake. It’s his opinion, not mine. We’re two different human beings, so that’s really all I can say.”
- In the most recent episode of the Hoop Collective podcast, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, Tim Bontemps, and MacMahon discussed Irving’s upcoming free agency, debating whether or not Kyrie holds most of the leverage as he enters free agency (hat tip to RealGM). MacMahon and Bontemps believe Irving is in a good position to command a long-term maximum-salary deal from the Mavs, while Windhorst questioned whether there are any teams that will have the cap flexibility and the desire to make a play for Kyrie and put pressure on Dallas.
Nets’ Cameron Johnson Meets Starter Criteria
Nets forward Cameron Johnson started his 41st game of the season on Friday vs. Orlando and has now met the “starter criteria” ahead of his restricted free agency.
As we outlined earlier in the week when Grant Williams achieved the same feat, a player is considered to have met the starter criteria when he starts at least 41 games or plays at least 2,000 minutes in the season before he becomes eligible for restricted free agency (or if he averages 41 starts or 2,000 minutes in the two seasons leading up to his free agency).
Johnson was primarily a reserve last season in Phoenix and then missed most of the first half of this season due to a torn meniscus, so it looked for a while as if he’d fall short of reaching the criteria. However, he started 16 of 17 games as a Sun this season and has started all 25 games he has played as a Net.
Johnson’s qualifying offer this summer will now be worth $8,486,620 instead of $7,744,600. That new figure is the equivalent of what the No. 9 pick in his draft class would receive.
Johnson’s new QO likely won’t have any real impact on his free agency, since the one-year offer will serve as a placeholder until he signs a multiyear contract with the Nets or another team. He reportedly turned down a four-year, $66MM extension offer from Phoenix last fall, so he’ll presumably be seeking a deal even more lucrative than that as a free agent.
Included as part of Brooklyn’s haul in February’s Kevin Durant blockbuster, Johnson has averaged a career-best 16.6 points per game since joining the Nets. He’s also contributing 4.8 RPG, 2.1 APG, and 1.4 SPG with a .468/.372/.851 shooting line in 30.8 minutes per night since the trade.
Johnson will be the last of 2023’s potential restricted free agents to meet the starter criteria, joining Williams, P.J. Washington, Tre Jones, Ayo Dosunmu, Kenyon Martin Jr. and Herbert Jones (Jones will have his team option picked up rather than reaching free agency, and Martin may be in that boat too). No other RFAs-to-be started 41 games or logged 2,000 minutes this season.
Hoops Rumors Chat Transcript: 4/6/2023
Hoops Rumors hosted a live chat today at 10:00 am Central time (11 am Eastern).
Click here to read the transcript, and join us on Tuesday afternoon for our next live chat, hosted by Dana Gauruder.
Raptors Notes: VanVleet, Dowtin, Nurse, Siakam
Speaking to Taylor Rooks of Bleacher Report (YouTube video link), Raptors guard Fred VanVleet admitted that being involved in so many trade rumors leading up to February’s deadline was a new experience for him, but said he wasn’t overly concerned about those reports because the team has always communicated well with him.
“I have such a great relationship with management and ownership, like it’s really a family thing,” VanVleet said (Twitter video link via Oren Weisfeld). “Even when all the outside noise was going on, there was really no talk behind the scenes, at least with me and them, like, ‘Hey, we might move you.’ Teams were calling, of course. There’s a lot of teams that could use me, that feel like I would take them over the hump to win a championship. Especially this year.”
VanVleet will become an unrestricted free agent this July if he turns down his 2023/24 player option, as expected. However, while it’s possible he’ll explore the open market, the veteran guard doesn’t sound like a player eager to move on from his current team.
“I’m very grateful for my situation,” VanVleet said. “This franchise gave me a chance. I’m in the NBA because they believed in me, and that’s something that I don’t take for granted, I don’t take lightly.”
Here’s more on the Raptors:
- Toronto expects to make a decision on Thursday afternoon about whether or not to promote two-way player Jeff Dowtin to the 15-man roster, head coach Nick Nurse said on Wednesday (Twitter link via Michael Grange of Sportsnet.ca). Nurse added he’ll meet with general manager Bobby Webster to discuss the decision.
- In a column for Sportsnet.ca, Grange argues that the Dowtin situation seems to expose a gulf between Nurse and Raptors management. Meanwhile, Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca tweets that it would be a bad look for the organization if Dowtin’s solid play on his two-way deal isn’t rewarded with a promotion.
- Eric Koreen of The Athletic considers Pascal Siakam‘s case for All-NBA honors, noting that the standout forward would become eligible for a super-max extension if he’s named to one of the All-NBA teams this spring. Siakam’s numbers (24.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 5.9 APG) are certainly All-NBA caliber, but the Raptors’ underwhelming record may hurt his case, Koreen observes.
- In a separate story for The Athletic, Koreen contends that the Raptors’ organization lacks consistency in its performance and philosophy, from the front office on down to the players. Koreen suggests the decision not to convert Dowtin’s contract in time for a big game on Wednesday was an odd one, given that the team could have used him in its loss to Boston.
And-Ones: Load Management, CBA, Chiozza, Muhammad
Both the NBA and the NBPA acknowledged during their recent Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations that players missing time due to load management is an issue for the league, according to Baxter Holmes of ESPN, who hears that it was a topic of much discussion during those negotiations. However, as Holmes details in an extensive Insider-only feature, neither side could come up with a silver bullet to solve the problem, which many view as “unfixable.”
As Holmes outlines, there are plenty of team officials who have advocated for a reduction of the NBA’s 82-game regular season schedule, which would perhaps be the most logical fix. Even having teams play just 72 games instead of 82 would allow the league to eliminate many of the back-to-back sets that often lead to players sitting out on either the first or second night. However, cutting back the 82-game schedule is widely viewed as a non-starter, given the lost revenue it would create.
Within his story on load management, Holmes also provides some new details on the 65-game minimum that the new CBA is implementing for players to qualify for postseason awards.
According to Holmes, players would have to log at least 20 minutes in at least 63 of those games for them to count toward the minimum. Sources tell ESPN that players would be permitted to play between 15-20 minutes in two games and still have them count toward the minimum of 65. These may be the “conditions” that Adrian Wojnarowski alluded to last weekend in his first report on the new CBA.
Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:
- Veteran guard Chris Chiozza has signed with Spanish team UCAM Murcia, according to an announcement from the club. Chiozza, who has appeared in 91 total NBA games for four teams since 2019, spent most of 2022/23 with the Long Island Nets in the G League. His new contract in Spain is a rest-of-season deal.
- Former NBA lottery pick Shabazz Muhammad has joined the Guangdong Southern Tigers of the Chinese Basketball Association, writes Dario Skerletic of Sportando, passing along a report from Chinese outlet CGTN Sports Scene (Twitter link). Muhammad signed a G League contract earlier this season as he attempted to make his way back to the NBA — he has since inked deals to play in Lebanon and now China.
- The NBA is hoping that its G League team in Mexico City is a first step toward opening up a pathway for more Latin American players to make it to the NBA, according to Ricardo Torres of The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Warriors Notes: Quinones, Thompson, Wiggins
Warriors guard Lester Quinones, who is on a two-way contract with the team, was named the NBA G League’s Most Improved Player for the 2022/23 season, according to an announcement from the league (Twitter link).
Unlike in the NBA, the G League’s Most Improved Player award is given to the player who exhibits the most improvement over the course of the season rather than from one year to the next.
Quinones, who finished the NBAGL regular season with averages of 21.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game, was especially productive down the stretch, putting up 27.7 PPG on .477/.381/.743 shooting in his last six games for the Santa Cruz Warriors. He previously averaged 17.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 2.6 APG during Showcase Cup play in the fall.
Here’s more on the Warriors:
- Veteran sharpshooter Klay Thompson was a late scratch on Tuesday due to lower back soreness, but head coach Steve Kerr said the decision was precautionary and doesn’t expect the issue to impact Thompson’s availability going forward, tweets Kendra Andrews of ESPN.
- Speaking to reporters on Tuesday for the first time since leaving the team before the All-Star break, forward Andrew Wiggins declined to discuss the specifics of the personal situation that led to his 22-game absence, but said he expects to be back in action soon, according to Andrews. Based on comments made by Kerr, it sounds like Wiggins may not be available by Friday, but could be back for Golden State’s regular season finale on Sunday. “We’ll have a better idea in the next couple of days,” Kerr said. “There’s no way he’s playing in the next few days, I can tell you that. But I think once we have an assessment over the next couple of days, we’ll have a better idea of when he might be able to play.”
- The manner in which the Warriors handled Wiggins’ personal absence and his return reflects well on the franchise, writes Tim Kawakami of The Athletic. “This organization, it’s a player-first organization,” guard Gary Payton II said. “They want to make sure we’re mentally and physically ready to come to work and do what we’ve gotta do. Wigs was gone for a period of time for Wigs’ reasons and they didn’t press him or push him to come back and get ready to play. Just what he had to handle and he came back.”