Extension Candidate: Kemba Walker
Kemba Walker rode quite a wave into the NBA three years ago, having been a consensus first-team All-American at Connecticut, which he led to the national championship as a senior. Charlotte spent its lottery pick on him, trusting that he could meet or exceed the expectations incumbent upon a ninth overall selection. The circumstances surrounding Walker quickly darkened, as he spent his rookie season in and out of the starting lineup for a Bobcats team that compiled the worst winning percentage in NBA history. Al Jefferson and coach Steve Clifford, deservedly, receive much of the credit for having turned the franchise around upon their arrival last year, leaving Walker a secondary figure of sorts as the October 31st deadline for an extension to his rookie scale contract looms. Still, Walker’s game has grown over his time in the league, and while he hasn’t become a star, GM Rich Cho must decide soon if the 24-year-old has shown enough to prove that he has what it takes to be the starting point guard on a championship-level team.
Charlotte’s addition of Lance Stephenson and an Eastern Conference that’s wide open beyond the Cavs and Bulls puts Walker in line to play in the sort of high-leverage games this year that would help the newly rechristened Hornets test his meddle. That won’t help Cho and his staff as they ponder an extension, given the early deadline, and while it ostensibly would give them reason to hesitate, since a golden opportunity for evaluation awaits in the months ahead, the Hornets won’t be the only team watching the Jeff Schwartz client. Allowing Walker to hit restricted free agency next summer would invite bidders to drive up the price to retain him if he puts up strong numbers and helps lead the Hornets deep into the playoffs. The Hornets are well aware of how the process works, having signed Gordon Hayward to a maximum-salary offer sheet this summer that forced the Jazz, who exercised their right to match, to pay him more than they’d offered during extension talks last year.
Walker’s most significant leap to date came in between his first and second seasons, when he grabbed the full-time starting role and set career highs virtually across the board. A few of those numbers stagnated or declined this past season even as Walker saw more minutes per game, as his scoring average held steady at 17.7 points per contest while his shooting percentage dropped from 42.3% to 39.3%. The 6’1″ Bronx native took three-pointers a bit more often and slightly improved his accuracy, from 32.2% to 33.3%, but what seemed to drive down his field goal percentage the most was an increase in his frequency of long two-point attempts and a decrease of his shots at the rim. He more frequently shot from 16 feet and out than he did from three feet and in, according to his Basketball-Reference page, after the inverse was true during his second season in the league.
Ball-distribution is the No. 1 assignment for many, if not most, point guards, and the data suggests Walker has shown consistent improvement in that part of the game. He dished out 6.1 assists against 2.3 turnovers per game last season, the best ratio of his career. His per-36-minute numbers in assists and turnovers were also the best he’s recorded to date. Still, those gains weren’t enough to offset his poor shot selection, as his PER declined from 18.8 in 2012/13 to 16.8 this past year.
Walker was fifth in the league with 2.0 steals per game in 2012/13, but last season saw that number cut nearly in half, to 1.2. The team seemed to benefit from his more conservative approach. The then-Bobcats gave up just 99.1 points per 100 possessions with Walker on the floor compared to 105.1 when he sat last season, according to NBA.com. The gap wasn’t nearly as profound the year before, when Walker’s lineups gave up 108.2 points per 100 possessions compared to the 110.7 points per 100 possessions the Cats surrendered without him. Charlotte was statistically better defensively with Walker on the floor even when he was a rookie, though his teammates weren’t exactly world-beaters.
John Wall was the only point guard to receive a rookie-scale extension last year, and Walker isn’t in his max-salary neighborhood. Three point guards received rookie-scale extensions the year before, with Ty Lawson and Jrue Holiday the closest comparisons. Walker’s ball-handling numbers closely mirror what Lawson put up the season before he signed his four-year, $48MM extension, and they exceed what Holiday put up right before his four-year, $41MM extension, even though Walker lags behind both Lawson and Holiday as a shooter. Neither deal comes off as a bargain for their respective teams two years later, but they aren’t especially player-friendly contracts, either.
The Hornets would probably be pleased to come away with an extension that committed them to Walker for four years and $40MM, as I predicted earlier in the offseason that they would. Schwartz would rightly hesitate to let his client go for such a number and instead target one in the $41-48MM range that Holiday and Lawson established. We’ll soon see just how high the Hornets are willing to go to keep their positive momentum of the past two offseasons rolling.
And-Ones: Hornets, Favors, Hawks
Earlier today, we passed along word from coach Steve Clifford that the Hornets are seeking frontcourt help. Clifford’s interview with Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer touched on some more of Charlotte’s roster, including how he’ll use newly signed Marvin Williams. “He’ll play both forward spots, but I see him primarily as a stretch [power forward],” said Clifford. “He’s a very smart player who makes smart, simple plays. And he’s very professional in his approach.” Here’s a rundown of league news and notes, including more from Clifford:
- Clifford revealed that Jeff Taylor‘s recovery from an Achilles injury has been interfered with by a personal matter. “Unfortunately, Jeff has a family situation in Sweden [keeping him away from Charlotte],” he told Bonnell. “Nothing can be done about that and you know he’s an exceptional worker, but he’s had to miss our five optional workouts. So it’s hard to get a feel for where he’s at. He did a couple of summer-league practices. Medically he’s fine. So it’s just a matter of having more continuity, so that when he plants and cuts and jumps he’s confident [in his recovery.]”
- Milos Teodosic is an NBA-caliber player lighting up the World Cup, but the Serbian star won’t consider a move stateside unless he’s offered upwards of $3MM in annual salary, reports Marc Stein of ESPN.com (on Twitter). The Grizzlies were the last team to make a serious run at the point guard, when he spurned them last summer.
- Tony Jones of The Salt Lake Tribune profiles Derrick Favors, the big man whose four-year, $48MM extension will commence this season. The center tells Jones he’s comfortable taking the next step as a franchise cornerstone for the Jazz, a sentiment GM Dennis Lindsey seconds. “This is really the second stage for Derrick,” Lindsey said. “We’ve had patience with him and he’s had a natural progression. With Derrick, nobody can accuse the Jazz of skipping steps. We know that we’re making a significant investment in him by giving him the contract extension. Derrick has taken ownership of his development.”
- The Basketball Insiders team previewed the upcoming season for the Hawks.
- J.A. Adande of ESPN.com writes that the NBA’s slowness to identify and dismiss the source of the racial slur from the scouting report on Luol Deng that triggered the Hawks scandal indicates a willingness to harbor that sentiment in the league, contrary to the commissioner’s declaration to root out racism when he first banned Donald Sterling.
Hornets Seeking Frontcourt Help
Noah Vonleh’s injury leaves the Hornets’ frontcourt with less depth than coach Steve Clifford would like, and as a result, the team is planning on adding a player to help supplement their cast of bigs, as Clifford tells Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer. Vonleh, the ninth overall pick in June’s draft, likely wasn’t in line to receive major minutes in the upcoming season, but any player signed or acquired will probably take on his load in the rotation until he’s healthy enough to return.
The Hornets’ frontcourt is currently set to feature Marvin Williams, Cody Zeller, Al Jefferson, and Bismack Biyombo. The team has 14 guaranteed deals on their books as well as Dallas Lauderdale‘s likely non- or partially guaranteed pact. Lauderdale is a big man himself, but Charlotte might not feel comfortable giving him a spot in their rotation, since he lacks any NBA regular season experience. It’s possible that he could impress Clifford and GM Rich Cho enough in camp to the point that they don’t feel compelled to ink another player, but given Clifford’s admission they were looking to add someone, it seems safe to assume Lauderdale isn’t the solution the team is after.
There are several veteran bigs available on the market, as our list of 2014 free agents shows. I’d speculate that the recently waived Hasheem Thabeet might make sense if the team is looking for a center, but Dante Cunningham could be a more appealing option if they’re leaning toward bringing in a power forward. No players have been identified as potential targets yet, but that could change in the days ahead.
Charlotte can offer free agents a deal worth up to $2,732,000 using the room exception. They might not need to use that full amount, as many available players would likely settle for the minimum at this late stage of free agency, but the ability to make an offer greater than that could help them win a player who’s also being pursued by a team limited to paying the minimum.
And-Ones: Deng, Knicks, Dragic, West
The Luol Deng report from the RealGM scouting service that was the source of the racially charged statements that Hawks GM Danny Ferry said aloud in a June conference call contains several tidbits of collateral information on storylines surrounding Deng the past couple of years. One of the anonymous sources quoted in the report points to hard feelings Deng had toward the Bulls as they allegedly pushed him to play through injury and played hardball with an extension offer. The same source cites “major locker room issues” that existed between two Cavaliers during Deng’s tenure there, and while the names are redacted, many accounts have pointed to tension between Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters. The report also pointed to interest in Deng from the Hornets, Suns, Mavs and Lakers around last year’s trade deadline. Aside from the most explosive racial comments, the report contains a few mild criticisms of Deng’s ability on the court and his persona off of it, but mostly serves to paint Deng as a valuable player and an upstanding character. While the fallout from the Hawks saga continues, here’s more from other corners of the league:
- Knicks president Phil Jackson tells Scott Cacciola of The New York Times that he and owner James Dolan didn’t speak in August and have otherwise been having only a couple conversations a month as Dolan keeps his promise not to interfere. An agent said to Cacciola that when he appealed to Dolan when Jackson wouldn’t budge in negotiations, he found the owner unwilling to provide recourse behind Jackson’s back, and Dolan insists to the Times scribe that he won’t change his ways if the team starts losing this season.
- Zoran Dragic acknowledged that playing in the NBA appeals to him but said he’s on his way to training camp with Spain’s Unicaja Malaga, as he told Gal Zbačnik of Kosarka.si (translation via Sportando’s Emiliano Carchia). Dragic’s contract with the team reportedly gives him until October 5th to find an NBA deal, and several teams appear to be in pursuit.
- Delonte West has agreed to return to China on a one-year deal with the Shanghai Sharks, reports Chris Haynes of the Plain Dealer (on Twitter). West, who hasn’t played in the NBA since the 2012/13 preseason, spent last year with China’s Fujian Sturgeons.
Hornets Sign Dallas Lauderdale For Camp
SEPTEMBER 22ND: The deal is official, the team announced.
SEPTEMBER 9TH: Big man Dallas Lauderdale will attend training camp with the Hornets, reports Chris Haynes of the Plain Dealer (Twitter link). The terms of the arrangement for the former Ohio State Buckeye aren’t immediately clear, but it’s likely for the minimum salary, perhaps with a nominal guarantee included.
The 6’8″ 25-year-old is heading to camp with an NBA club for the second straight year, having done so with the Blazers last autumn. Portland retained his D-League rights for this past season, and he did his most impressive work on the boards, averaging 8.7 a game to go with 7.5 points in 29.3 minutes per contest in the D-League.
Charlotte has been carrying 14 players on 14 guaranteed deals, as our roster counts show, but while Lauderdale doesn’t appear to have much camp competition as it stands, the Hornets will almost certainly bring in a few more camp invitees. NBA teams don’t have to carry any more than 13 players in the regular season, so it’s possible that Lauderdale or anyone else the team signs this month will have to be particularly impressive to make it to opening night.
And-Ones: Lakers, Hornets, CDR, Young, Mavs
Michael Beasley‘s second audition with the Lakers was part of a larger free agent workout today, writes Sam Amick of USA Today, who lists Dexter Pittman, Greg Stiemsma, Daniel Orton, Bobby Brown, Toney Douglas, Ben Hansbrough and Malcolm Lee as the other participants. As Amick points out, GM Mitch Kupchak has two roster spots to play with going into the 2014/15 season.
Here is what else is happening around the league on Wednesday evening:
- Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer doesn’t foresee the Hornets burning their 15th and final guarantee on center depth behind Al Jefferson and Bismack Biyombo. Bonnell believes Charlotte would prefer to, when needed, plug Cody Zeller in at center rather than limit their roster flexibility (Twitter links here).
- Bonnell also quashes any talk of the Hornets using that final guarantee on Chris Douglas-Roberts, who impressed at times in 49 games in Charlotte in 2013/14 (Twitter link). With Lance Stephenson and P.J. Hairston now in the fold, the Hornets are not looking for another wing, Bonnell implies. CDR was linked to the Clippers as recently as yesterday.
- Clearly appreciative of the Timberwolves‘ efforts to acquire him, Thaddeus Young conceded that the past two seasons with the Sixers have been frustrating, writes Marc Narducci of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
- The combination of Dirk Nowitzki‘s unselfishness and his communicative relationship with Mavericks owner Mark Cuban directly led to the addition of Chandler Parsons this summer, writes Earl K. Sneed of NBA.com.
And-Ones: Drew, Antetokounmpo, D-League
Former Bucks coach Larry Drew was blindsided by his ouster from Milwaukee, telling Charles F. Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel he was taken aback by the process. New owners Marc Lasry and Wes Edens were already in discussions with Jason Kidd, who supplanted Drew on the bench, while he was participating in rookie Jabari Parker‘s introductory press conference.
“The whole Jabari thing, putting me in that position, I don’t think it was very professional. I wish it wouldn’t have happened that way, but it did,” said Drew, who is now an assistant with the Cavs. “It caught me in a position when I least expected it. But I know how these things work. I don’t have any hard feelings, any grudges against anybody.”
Here’s more from around the league:
- Thanasis Antetokounmpo‘s agent tells Marc Berman of the New York Post that the forward turned down a two-year, $550K offer to play in Italy in order to accept the $25K salary he will receive with the Knicks‘ D-League affiliate. Agent Tim Lotsos says the sacrifice was made because his client is eager to prove himself as NBA-ready. “To my surprise, he passed on it,” said Lotsos. “He’s very ambitious and determined to make the NBA. I didn’t try to force him. I wanted him to make his own decision.”
- A D-League expansion draft for returning player rights will take place on September 1, reports Gino Pilato of DLeagueDigest.com. The draft will supply the Knicks‘ new affiliate with a starting roster, and each existing team will protect up to 12 current D-League players that the Westchester Knicks can’t obtain.
- In the same piece, Pilato does a mock selection draft, projecting which players he sees each D-League team protecting and which players wind up in Westchester.
- Plenty of people believe rookie Cavs coach David Blatt will become one of the best coaches in the league, writes Joel Brigham of Basketball Insiders in his look at rising coaching names. Brigham views Mike Budenholzer, Steve Clifford, Dave Joerger, and Jeff Hornacek as fellow up-and-comers in the NBA ranks.
- In a LeBron James-centric mailbag column, Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel asserts that it was James’ contract preferences that led to the Cavs receiving draft picks from Miami in 2010 through a sign-and-trade, and that it was also his contract desires that prevented the Heat from receiving any picks when he returned to Cleveland this summer.
Cavs Sign Dwight Powell
The Cavaliers have signed second-round draft pick Dwight Powell, the team has officially announced. The 6’11 forward out of Stanford was selected by the Hornets with the No. 45 overall pick in this year’s NBA Draft. Powell was then traded along Brendan Haywood to the Cavs for Scotty Hopson.
Powell played four seasons for Stanford, and appeared in 136 games, averaging 10.8 PPG and 6.3 RPG, while playing 26.2 minutes a night. He was a two-time First Team All-Pac 12 selection during his college career. Last season he averaged 14.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG, and 3.1 APG.
During this year’s Las Vegas Summer League, Powell played in three games, and averaged 5.0 PPG and 3.7 RPG, while logging 11.3 minutes per night.
Eastern Notes: Knicks, Miles, Antetokounmpo
The United States defeated Puerto Rico by a score of 112-86 in their final home exhibition game prior to the FIBA World Cup. Stephen Curry was the high scorer with 20 points, and James Harden added 13 for Team USA.
Here’s the latest from the Eastern Conference:
- The Knicks already have the D-League rights to Thanasis Antetokounmpo, as Gino Pilato of D-League Digest clarifies in an update to an earlier report. Pilato had originally indicated that the Sixers retained his D-League rights because he played for their affiliate last season, but this year’s D-League rule changes give the Knicks his D-League rights because they selected him in the NBA draft this summer, as Pilato explains. Antetokounmpo, the 51st overall selection, has reportedly agreed to sign with the D-League and play for New York’s affiliate.
- C.J. Miles will be asked to do a lot more than the Pacers anticipated when they signed him as a free agent back in July, writes Mark Montieth of NBA.com. In the wake of the potential season-ending injury to Paul George, and the departure of Lance Stephenson to the Hornets, Miles will need to pick up a sizable portion of the scoring load, opines Montieth.
- The Knicks have a logjam at the shooting guard position with J.R. Smith, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Iman Shumpert, writes Ian Begley of ESPNNewYork.com. In the article, Begley examines the pros and cons of each player starting versus coming off of the bench. Smith weighed in on the situation, saying, “That’s for the coach to decide. All we’ve got to do is play. Whatever they decide, we’ve got to just live with it. Hopefully everybody could put their egos aside and come together for one common goal.”
Chuck Myron contributed to this post.
Hornets Sign P.J. Hairston
The Hornets have signed 26th overall pick P.J. Hairston, the team announced via press release. Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer reported the signing minutes before the team’s announcement (Twitter link). Hairston was one of two remaining unsigned first-round picks Thursday when I looked at the 2014 draftees who’d yet to strike a deal with their respective NBA teams. He’s likely to receive close to $1.15MM this season, as our chart of salaries for 2014 first-round picks shows.
Hairston had intially chosen an agent who wasn’t union-certified, and that appeared to be at the root of the delay as he went unsigned for almost two months following the draft. Charlotte acquired his rights on draft night in the trade with the Heat that also gave the Hornets the rights to 55th overall pick Semaj Christon, who’s yet to come to terms with the club. No. 9 pick Noah Vonleh, the other 2014 draftee whose rights belong to Charlotte, signed with the team last month. The signing gives Charlotte 14 guaranteed deals plus a pact with the undrafted Justin Cobbs that’s presumably non-guaranteed.
It’s quite possible that Hairston will go down as a steal, since he seemed destined to end up as a lottery pick had the University of North Carolina not decided to part ways with the shooting guard over NCAA-eligibility concerns. Hairston spent much of last season in the D-League with the Texas Legends, and he became the first former D-League player selected in the first round of the NBA draft.
Chad Ford of ESPN.com ranked Hairston as the 18th-best draft prospect in spite of his D-League detour, while Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress had him 20th, furthering the notion that the Hornets have a chance to make out well with the 26th pick. Our Alex Lee was also high on the 6’5″ 21-year-old, projecting him as the 16th pick in the final version of his Hoops Rumors Mock Draft.