Money Time: Upcoming Free Agents In The Playoffs
Last week we looked at some players on the cusp of free agency who were making some surprising postseason impressions, both positive and negative, on prospective employers. With the first round almost over and the conference semifinals about to begin, let's check in with some more soon-to-be free agents in the playoffs:
Winners
Reggie Evans, Clippers: Anyone who can spark a 27-point comeback in the playoffs, as he did in Game 1, deserves to be on this list, and his energy throughout the first round has been critical for the Clippers. His already superb number of rebounds per 36 minutes has jumped from 12.7 in the regular season to 13.7 in the playoffs, and, for what it's worth, has his team's best defensive rating in the playoffs, per Basketball-Reference.
Andre Miller, Nuggets: It's easy to forget about Miller sometimes, particularly since he's been coming off the bench for Denver. Yet the NBA's 10th leading assist-maker all-time reminded everyone, including the Lakers, of what he can do with a 24-point, eight assist performance full of clutch shots in Tuesday's Game 5. He's the team's third leading scorer in the postseason at 12.7 PPG, outdoing Arron Afflalo, who signed a $36.75MM deal before the season.
Jordan Hill, Lakers (restricted): He had his breakthrough in the final week of the regular season against the Thunder, and he's continued to justify coach Mike Brown's decision to use him as the primary backup to both Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol in the playoffs. He's pulling down more rebounds per game than Gasol in significantly fewer minutes, and has 25 offensive boards, more than anyone else in the postseason. Hill's rebounds-per-36-minutes number (13.4) nearly equals that of Reggie Evans.
Losers
O.J. Mayo, Grizzlies (restricted): The postseason is a terrible time to go through a shooting slump, but that's exactly what's happened with Mayo, who's hitting on just 31.4% of his field goal attempts against the Clippers. He went a combined 3-for-20 in Games 3, 4 and 5, and took only three shots in Game 6. His inability to efficiently handle the backup point guard duties — he's got 13 assists and 17 turnovers — isn't helping his cause, either.
Randy Foye, Clippers: Foye's minutes are up but his scoring is down for the playoffs, which is about as inauspicious as it gets for a free agent wing player. The culprit appears to his inability to get off shots and get to the line. His attempts in both categories are off while his postseason shooting percentage of 37.8% is not that far down from the 39.8% he shot in the regular season. His excuse may be that he's being guarded by Tony Allen, an elite defender, but Allen isn't with him on every possession. His Basketball-Reference defensive rating is the second worst on the team, so his struggles aren't limited to one end of the floor.
Jodie Meeks, Sixers (restricted): He started 50 games this season and played 24.9 minutes per contest, but barely got off the bench once he was removed from the starting five after Game 1 against Chicago. He took a total of three shots from the floor, missing each of them, in 32 minutes during the first round.
Nuggets “100%” Committed To Re-Signing McGee
JaVale McGee played the best game of his young postseason career Tuesday night in Los Angeles, recording 21 points, 14 rebounds, and a pair of blocks against a tough Lakers frontcourt, sending the series back to Denver. The performance led to some speculation about the offers McGee could receive in free agency this summer, but the Nuggets don't intend to let him get away. GM Masai Ujiri told Benjamin Hochman of the Denver Post that McGee is "100%" a player the team intends to lock up long-term.
"Our intent was to get JaVale for the future, not just for three months," Ujiri said, referring to the blockbuster deadline deal that brought McGee to Denver.
McGee will be eligible for restricted free agency this summer, so the Nuggets will have the opportunity to match any offer sheet the 24-year-old signs. A report earlier this season suggesting McGee would seek an average salary of $14MM was met with jokes and skepticism at the time, but the center's play since joining the Nuggets has certainly improved his stock. When I previewed McGee's free agency on Monday, I predicted an average annual salary of about $8-9MM, but that estimate may end up being light.
Northwest Rumors: J.R. Smith, Jazz, Nolan Smith
The Nuggets took a major step toward joining the Thunder in the second round with a win over the Lakers last night, while the rest of the Northwest looks ahead at the offseason. Here's the latest from the division:
- Former Nuggets guard J.R. Smith, who's expected to turn down his $2.5MM Knicks option for next season, has been keeping a close watch on his former team as they play in the postseason, writes Chris Tomasson of Fox Sports Florida.
- Brian T. Smith of the Salt Lake Tribune says Jazz GM Kevin O'Connor is poised to make only minor moves this summer, but Smith believes the franchise is still searching for its identity.
- Pete Christopher of OregonLive.com encourages the Blazers to hang on to Nolan Smith, the 21st pick in last year's draft, and go after an experienced veteran point guard to mentor him.
Free Agent Stock Watch: JaVale McGee
During his time with the Wizards, JaVale McGee was a walking highlight reel. Of course, for every memorable dunk or blocked shot, there was even more memorable miscue, whether it was running back on defense when his team had the ball, or blatantly goaltending a shot into the fifth row. Michael Lee of the Washington Post said it best earlier this season when he wrote that McGee has a penchant for mixing "the spectacular with the perplexing."
The deadline deal that sent McGee to Denver in a package for Nene gave the seven-footer a chance for a fresh start, and he took advantage, averaging a career-best 18.0 points per 36 minutes and .612 FG% in his 20 games with the Nuggets. His play in the postseason has been inconsistent, but he's shown flashes of brilliance, swatting away six shots in Game Two and grabbing 15 boards to go with 16 points in Game Three.
Although McGee hasn't necessarily shed the "perplexing" label he earned with the Wizards, he appears to have benefited from a change of scenery and a chance to be a contributor on a veteran squad, rather than a leader on a young lottery team. His play in Denver should earn him more interest in free agency than he would have received had he finished the season mixing highlights with lowlights in Washington.
The Nuggets figure to make a play to retain McGee this year, having parted with a quality big man in Nene to acquire him. But there's no guarantee the restricted free agent will return to Denver, if another team swoops in with an aggressive offer sheet. Chris Broussard of ESPN.com reported in March that McGee will be seeking a contract worth $14MM annually this summer, and while that amount may be wildly optimistic, McGee is the type of high-upside player that could inspire a team desperate for size to make an overly aggressive offer.
Last month, Steve Kyler of HoopsWorld reported that the Nuggets would likely match any offer of $7MM or less annually, and I could even see them going a little higher than that. But the Nuggets are very unlikely to match anything approaching the $13MM-per-year price tag they just shed by moving Nene.
Will JaVale get an offer anywhere near the amount he's reportedly seeking? Probably not. Even considering the premium price placed on NBA bigs, it's hard to imagine which team would offer McGee an annual eight-digit salary. The Cavaliers, Rockets, Bucks, and Trail Blazers are a few clubs who will be in the market for a center and should have plenty of cap space, but I wouldn't be surprised if McGee ultimately re-signed in Denver for a multiyear deal worth about $8-9MM annually.
Odds & Ends: Allen, Hawks, Anderson, Voting
It was a day of odd sightings on the hardwood, as the Knicks overcame the loss of Baron Davis to a dislocated kneecap to win their first postseason contest in 11 years. A No. 1 seed lost a third straight playoff game as the Bulls fell to the 76ers. And in Denver, a woman with a history of stalking the Nuggets came onto the court during Game 4 against the Lakers, reports J. Michael Falgoust of USA Today. Here's the rest of what raised eyebrows around the Association today:
- Teams interested in Celtics free agent Ray Allen this summer might not have to worry about how he'll respond to ankle surgery, since he says he may not go through with the procedure he originally thought was inevitable. Chris Forsberg of ESPNBoston.com first tweeted the news, and Jessica Camerato of CSNNE.com adds detail.
- Vincent Goodwill of the Detroit News believes the Hawks will deal either Josh Smith or Al Horford if the team can't rally from its 3-1 deficit to the Celtics (Twitter link). Of the two, Smith seems the easiest to trade, since 2012/13 is the last season on his contract.
- Despite a subpar showing in the playoffs so far, restricted free agent Ryan Anderson figures to be near the top of this summer's market for power forwards. There's mutual admiration between Anderson and the Magic, writes Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel, who also notes the team's recent history of matching offer sheets.
- The NBA released a statement acknowledging that Ernst & Young, the same accounting firm that handles the draft lottery, made an error tabulating the Most Improved Player of the Year voting, reports Chris Bernucca of SheridanHoops.com. A first-place vote meant for Andrew Bynum was mistakenly counted for Andrew Bogut. Either way, award winner Ryan Anderson comes out on top of the voting.
- Fran Blinebury of NBA.com examines the divergent career paths of Spurs point guard Tony Parker and Jazz counterpart Devin Harris, more than four years after Parker expressed relief that Harris was traded away from the Mavs.
Odds & Ends: Raptors, Bulls, Magic, Frye
Here are this evening's miscellaneous stories:
- Lang Greene of HoopsWorld had his weekly chat with fans tonight. Among the more significant things he talked about were the chances that Tyreke Evans gets shopped this summer, the Nets pursuing Kevin Garnett if Deron Williams leaves, the Hornets matching any offer for Eric Gordon, and Portland being the realistic destination for Goran Dragic.
- With $12MM in cap space before the draft, Bryan Colangelo talked about the Raptors' approach going into the offseason: "If there was going to be a year to make a bigger splash, whether in free agency or utilizing the space to acquire players by trade, I felt that would be better served in a subsequent season and that’s probably this summer" (Stephen Brotherston of HoopsWorld reports). Colangelo also told Brotherston that he and Ed Stefanski will be very active in terms of placing and entertaining calls with other GMs in the upcoming weeks and months.
- Scoop Jackson, Melissa Isaacson, and Jon Greenberg of ESPN cover a few topics on the Bulls, including how Derrick Rose's injury will affect Chicago's title hopes over the next two years, whether Luol Deng should immediately get surgery and skip the Olympics, and Carlos Boozer's reliability in the playoffs.
- Magic GM Otis Smith traveled to Los Angeles to check on Dwight Howard as he recuperates from surgery, according to Illiana Limón and Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel. While there had been speculation that Howard is estranged from the franchise, Smith and Magic CEO Alex Martins say that he hasn't asked for a trade.
- Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times provides a "to-do list" for the Nuggets if they are to have any chance at beating the Lakers.
- Tim MacMahon of ESPN Dallas wonders if the Mavericks should make strategic defensive adjustments on Russell Westbrook or just hope that he starts missing mid-range jumpshots.
- An article posted on Suns.com reports that Channing Frye underwent successful surgery on his right shoulder today.
Odds & Ends: Chandler, Jackson, Kidd, Cavs
The latest news and notes from around the NBA on Tuesday night:
- The Nuggets' official website notes that Wilson Chandler is recovering successfully from his recent hip surgery. Chandler signed a five-year deal with the Nuggets in March after returning from his stint in China.
- MySanAntonio.com's Buck Harvey wonders how Stephen Jackson's career would have differed had he remained with the Spurs the entire time.
- The Bay Area News Group's Marcus Thompson speculates that the Warriors may look at Jason Kidd as an option at backup point guard this offseason.
- Fox Sports Ohio's Sam Amico compares the Cavaliers' current roster and financial flexibility to that of the rest of the Eastern Conference lottery teams.
Odds & Ends: Nuggets, Howard, Hornets, Celtics
It was a rough night for the Knicks in South Beach. First, the Heat went up 2-0 in their first round series with a 104-94 win behind 25 points from Dwyane Wade. Later, reporters were held out of the Knicks' locker room as Amare Stoudemire was being tended to for lacerations on his left hand. It appears that the big man took his frustrations out on a fire extinguisher and his status for Game 3 could be in jeopardy. Here's more from around the league..
- The Nuggets are using the playoffs to find their center of the future, writes Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post.
- Magic GM Otis Smith plans to visit Dwight Howard in the Los Angeles area on Tuesday, according to Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel (via Twitter). There's no word on what the two will discuss upon Smith's arrival, but some have speculated that Howard is once again estranged from the team.
- The Hornets got approval for a tax break extension that is essential to keeping them in New Orleans through 2024, writes Ed Anderson of The Times-Picayune.
- A. Sherrod Blakely of CSNNE.com wonders aloud if Rajon Rondo has what it takes to be the Celtics' leader of the future following his one-game suspension. While Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen may not factor into the C's plans next year, the point guard will be in the mix for the foreseeable future.
- Michael Jordan should buck his trend of hiring friends as he did with GM Rich Cho if he hopes to turn the Bobcats' fortunes around, writes Sam Amick of Sports Illustrated.
- Blazers center Hasheem Thabeet reiterated his desire to return to Portland next season in a media scrum with outlets including CSNNW.com (video link), but the club has yet to talk about a new deal with the big man. The former second-overall pick came from the Rockets along with Jonny Flynn and a future second-round pick at the trade deadline in exchange for Marcus Camby.
- Ailene Voisin of the Sacramento Bee outlined three possible scenarios for the Kings and their stadium situation.
- Kobe Bryant acknowledged that this playoff run will be crucial to coach Mike Brown's future in Los Angeles, writes Brian Kamenetzky of ESPNLosAngeles.com.
Injuries Take A Starring Role In 2012 Playoffs
With horrific injuries spelling an early end to the season for Derrick Rose and Iman Shumpert, let's take a look at the other 14 playoff teams to see how a missing player may mean the difference between a Finals appearance and a first-round exit.
- Heat: LeBron James and Dwyane Wade enter the playoffs healthier than usual thanks to some much needed rest during the final week of the regular season. The Heat stand to benefit the most from Shumpert and Rose's injuries as a sweep against the Knicks means less of a challenge for Wade on the offensive end and an easier path to winning a title. Look for the Heat to advance to at least the Finals if they can duplicate the success they enjoyed during the first half of the season.
- Pacers: The Pacers are injury-free heading into Game 2 against the Magic, who pulled off the upset Saturday evening in Indiana. Utilizing seven-foot-two center Roy Hibbert's size to their fullest advantage will be key for the Pacers as their big man only managed to score eight points but blocked nine shots as he dominated the paint defensively. With Dwight Howard on the shelf for the entirety of the playoffs, the Magic are severely undersized with six-foot-nine Glen Davis taking over at center for Superman.
- Celtics: Ray Allen is expected to miss Game 1 in Atlanta against the Hawks as he battles bone spurs in his right ankle. If the Celtics had missed the playoffs, Allen would have undergone surgery immediately to help alleviate the pain. The Celtics will turn to Avery Bradley and his burgeoning reputation as a solid three-point shooter for the majority of the series as Allen's status remains unknown.
- Hawks: The center position has been an area of concern for the Hawks with Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia currently sidelined with injuries. Horford, who has been out since January 11 with a torn left pectoral muscle, will miss the entire first round of the playoffs but may be able to return if the team advances. A foot injury to Pachulia that caused him to miss the team's last seven games will force the Hawks to rely on Jason Collins in order to solidify their frontcourt.
- Magic: The Magic's chances of making a run in the playoffs took a huge hit when Howard called it a season in mid-April as he elected to undergo surgery to repair a herniated disk in his back. Without Howard, the Magic will feature an undersized frontcourt against a much larger Pacers squad. Much uncertainty surrounds the future of the franchise given Howard's impending free agency in 2013 and his desire to replace head coach Stan Van Gundy.
- Sixers: Aside from rookie center Lavoy Allen spraining his thumb in Game 1, the Sixers feature a healthy roster as they return to action Tuesday night against the Bulls. With Rose out for the remainder of the series, the Sixers will look to capitalize on the perimeter as Lou Williams, Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner should benefit from having to guard John Lucas III rather than the league's reigning MVP.
- Spurs: After a series of injuries cost Manu Ginobili nearly half the season, the Spurs enter the playoffs with a fresh roster looking to make a title run. Future Hall of Famer Tim Duncan, 36, played a career-low 28.2 MPG this season but is still performing at a high level. The addition of Stephen Jackson at the trade deadline along with the subtraction of Richard Jefferson may be enough to lead the Spurs to their fifth title under Gregg Popovich.
- Thunder: James Harden returned to action on Saturday night against the Mavs after missing his last two games with a concussion suffered against the Lakers last Sunday. He appeared to be completely recovered as he scored an efficient 19 points in 35 minutes of the bench. Beyond Harden, the Thunder lost backup point guard Eric Maynor for the season due to a torn ACL in January, but remedied the situation by signing veteran Derek Fisher to a contract in March.
- Lakers: A healthy Andrew Bynum and a rested Kobe Bryant may allow for the under-the-radar Lakers to make a run in the wide-open Western Conference playoffs. While not an injury, Los Angeles will be without Metta World Peace for the first six games of the playoffs due to suspension.
- Grizzlies: Memphis lost Darrell Arthur for the season after the power forward suffered a torn Achilles tendon in practice back in December. A healthy Zach Randolph has played himself back into shape after missing time earlier this season due to a knee injury.
- Clippers: Many critics expected the Clippers to implode after Chauncey Billups went down on February 6 with a torn Achilles tendon. While the Clippers slipped to the fifth seed, they reinvented the image of the franchise and gained respect from around the league thanks to MVP-like play from Chris Paul.
- Nuggets: After spending the majority of the season abroad in China, Wilson Chandler returned to Denver for a brief stint before suffering a season-ending injury to his hip in mid-April. The Nuggets will open against the Lakers without Rudy Fernandez, who had surgery on his lower back in March to end his season.
- Mavericks: A healthy Mavs squad will face a difficult journey in defending their title as they open the playoffs against the Thunder. Saturday night saw a missed opportunity by Dallas to steal Game 1 on the road as they lost in Oklahoma City by the score of 99-98. Any chance of exploiting Harden's concussion was nullified with a strong performance by the Sixth Man of the Year candidate.
- Jazz: Small forward C.J. Miles may miss the start of the playoffs against the Spurs with a strained calf. The team will look for strong production out of star Al Jefferson, who had the opportunity to rest late last week as the center only played limited minutes in the team's regular season finale.
Assessing The 2011/12 Waiver Claims
The vast majority of players placed on waivers go unclaimed and become free agents, but this year, there have been more waiver claims than usual, including a pair of players claimed after their previous teams waived them using the amnesty clause. Last month, Luke Adams provided a rundown on how teams can claim players off waivers, so now let's take a look at how this season's waiver claims have worked out.
- The most prominent example is Jeremy Lin, who was twice claimed off waivers this season after originally being let go by the Warriors. The Rockets claimed him December 11th, waived him a couple weeks later, and the Knicks made their claim December 27th. Left knee surgery will likely keep him out for the rest of the season unless the Knicks make a deep playoff run, but he'll wind up averaging 14.6 PPG and 6.2 APG, not too shabby for a player twice on the NBA scrapheap.
- Knicks GM Glen Grunwald struck gold with yet another waiver claim in Steve Novak, whom they picked up December 21st. Novak’s rise coincided with Lin’s, as he broke loose for 19 points in Lin’s first start, and has kept up his consistent long-range bombing even without Lin on the floor. He led the league in three-point percentage at 47.2%, but his shooting has never been in question. The difference this year was that he did enough in other phases of the game to warrant significant playing time. A career 4.9 PPG scorer, he averaged 10.4 PPG in 21.7 MPG beginning with that 19-point game on February 6th. We can only imagine how much better the Spurs would have been had they not waived him December 19th.
- Waiver claims are so infrequent that teams will sometimes agree to terms with players before they clear waivers. That’s what appeared to happen in March, when J.J. Hickson was dressed in Warriors gear and ready for a shootaround with Golden State when word hit that the Blazers had claimed him. We’ll never know how it would have worked out for him with the Warriors, but Hickson has thrived since joining Portland on March 21st, more than tripling the scoring average he put up in the first half of the season with the Kings (15.1 PPG to 4.7 PPG). He averaged 17.6 PPG and 10.6 RPG as a starter over the final eight games, and will be a sought-after commodity this summer, particularly if the Blazers fail to extend a qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free agent.
- Chauncey Billups warned teams not to claim him when the Knicks amnestied him before the season, hoping he could sign with a contender as a free agent, but the Clippers claimed him anyway December 12th. It all worked out, as the Clippers became the sort of contending team Billups wanted to play for anyway when they traded for Chris Paul a few days later. Billups slid over to shooting guard and adjusted smoothly to his new position, averaging 15.0 PPG before going down with a season-ending Achilles’ tendon tear on February 6th.
- The Kings had much less success with claiming an amnestied player, saddling themselves on Dec. 17th with Travis Outlaw for $12MM over the remaining four years of his contract. He was even less of a factor in Sacramento than he was for the Nets before they waived him, averaging just 4.3 PPG in 12.8 MPG, his worst numbers since he was a rookie in 2003/04.
- The Warriors tried to replace Jeremy Lin when they claimed Ish Smith, another backup point guard, off waivers from the Grizzlies on December 16th. Smith was there for only six games and 63 total minutes before the Warriors put him back on waivers on January 14th. He went unclaimed this time, and was signed as a free agent February 2nd by the Magic, with whom he’s played the rest of the season.
- The Blazers quietly let go of backup big man Chris Johnson at the trade deadline, and amid rumors the Celtics were interested, the Hornets snapped him up off waivers March 19th. Depleted as the Hornets were along the front line this year, Johnson still only saw 82 total minutes over seven games before New Orleans put him back out on waivers April 18th. He remains unsigned since.
- Rod Higgins, the president of basketball operations for the Bobcats, gave son Cory Higgins quite a present on Christmas Day when the team claimed him off waivers from the Nuggets. The undrafted 22-year-old rookie from Colorado stayed on the Bobcats roster the entire season, averaging 3.9 PPG in 11.1 MPG.