Assessing Stocks: Denver Nuggets
Portfolio Review: Where you value the Denver Nuggets assets and roster depends on how much value you place in superstars. On paper, the Nuggets are stocked two deep at every position and feature almost every desirable skill set a coach could want to plug into any given situation.
In Ty Lawson and Nene Hilario, the Nuggets have two offensive threats to occupy multiple defenders and a number of other players on the wings who can create off of their primary action. They have solid defenders and energetic athleticism. And yet, head coach George Karl is faced with the lingering question, “can you win without superstars?”
“There are only two or three superstars in the league anyways,” Karl said early in the season.
There is some truth to that. On any given night the Nuggets have everything Karl needs at his disposal to compete with the best teams in the NBA. The depth and versatility of the roster can in fact replicate most of the value of an elite player.
The issue is consistency and health. Over the course of a season there will be injuries (like the one Danilo Gallinari suffered) and inconsistent play, and the value of an elite player like LeBron James or Dwight Howard, is they have the ability to patch holes for stretches of time. Those players bring the same level of play every night and are able to take on more without losing efficiency.
Prime Assets: The Nuggets are in an interesting position. Because each player is above average to good, virtually everyone on the team is in play for the right price. And because their depth, the Nuggets have the luxury of upgrading talent at any position by combining multiple players without a drastic drop in quality.
Even in the era of point guards, possessing two starting quality point guards would seem superfluous. Andre Miller on his own would probably fetch a rotation player, but the Nuggets already have their fair share of those. Intrigue picks up, however, if the Nuggets were able to combine Miller with another starting quality player, a young prospect, and draft pick.
Worthless Stock: Ty Lawson. But only because the return on him would likely never exceed the value of his contract or the value of the player. So perhaps the word here shouldn’t be worthless, but priceless.
The Rest: The rest of the roster is simply intriguing filler to place a bigger trade. The Nuggets do not need to build around the fringes. Improvement will either come from within, or converting multiple assets into a blockbuster deal.
Stein On Kaman, Andersen, Jennings, Smith
In this week's installment of his Weekend Dime, ESPN.com's Marc Stein names his picks for the NBA's first-half awards. LeBron James and Chris Paul highlight the list as the East and West MVPs, respectively, while Jeremy Lin makes an appearance as the league's Most Improved Player.
After making his choices for the pre-All-Star awards, Stein also shares a few notes on the trade market, so let's round up the highlights:
- Chris Kaman is a "near lock" to be dealt by March 15th. This isn't good news for the Heat, who were hoping to pursue Kaman if the Hornets bought out his contract after the trade deadline, but it's not a surprise — Kaman has some value and it sounds like there are teams with interest.
- Chris Andersen has received increased minutes lately with Nene Hilario and Timofey Mozgov out of action, but the Nuggets are open to dealing the Birdman. Any potential trade partner would have to take on the two years and $9MM+ that will still remain on Andersen's contract after this season.
- Brandon Jennings' comments last week about eventually exploring his free agent options haven't altered the Bucks' perception of him as a franchise cornerstone. According to Stein, Jennings' comments "struck many observers as an ill-conceived frustration rant" after the Bucks guard wasn't named to the Eastern All-Stars.
- While J.R. Smith will receive the full amount the Knicks have left on their mini mid-level exception (approximately $2.38MM), his 2011/12 NBA earnings will only work out to about $1.92MM due to the lockout pro-ration.
Odds & Ends: Nuggets, Suns, Jazz, Bulls
While we wait for official word on the Knicks' pending roster moves, let's round up a few odds and ends from around the NBA:
- Christopher Dempsey of the Denver Post looks ahead to Wilson Chandler's expected return to the Nuggets, which could happen sooner than expected.
- Free agent Al Thornton will work out for the Suns today, tweets Alex Kennedy of HoopsWorld. Michael Finley and Jermaine Taylor worked out for Phoenix yesterday, and Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic adds Elijah Millsap to the workout list as well (Twitter link).
- After Seattle officially unveiled its arena proposal yesterday, Sacramento mayor Kevin Johnson tells the Sacramento Bee he doesn't blame Seattle for pursuing an NBA franchise (potentially the Kings): "If we were without a team, I would be doing the same thing. But we have laser focus, we control our own destiny and we're closer than we've ever been."
- The Jazz should listen to trade proposals over the next few weeks, but refrain from acting on anything unless they're blown away, opines Patrick Kinahan of 1320 KFAN at NBA.com.
- Sam Smith answered a number of Bulls-related trade and roster questions in his latest mailbag at Bulls.com. Smith says the delay on a Joel Przybilla signing may stem from whether or not the big man wants to continue his NBA career.
Wilson Chandler To Return Early From China
Wilson Chandler recently helped his CBA team, the Zhejiang Lions, clinch a playoff spot, but it doesn't appear he'll be around for the team's postseason run. According to ESPN.com's Marc Stein, Chandler is scheduled to return to America as early as next week, even though the CBA playoffs don't get underway until Wednesday.
Chandler, like other players who signed in China during the lockout, was expected to honor his contract and play until his CBA team finished its season. However, Stein hears that the DePaul product may have essentially been granted permission to miss the playoffs if he helped the Lions get there.
Even if Chandler returns next week, he'll still need to be granted a FIBA letter of clearance before he can officially sign with an NBA team. It's unclear whether the CBA would be willing to grant Chandler clearance before the Lions' season ends, though sources tell Stein the league may be more inclined to do so if the 24-year-old plays in the CBA's All-Star Game this weekend.
Chandler, who will be a restricted free agent upon returning, is reportedly weighing whether to sign with the Nuggets long-term or sign for the rest of the season and become an unrestricted free agent this summer. While we've heard before of Chandler's intentions to re-sign with the Nuggets one way or the other, that decision could become more complicated if he's cleared to return to the NBA by the end of the month. Since teams aren't permitted to sign restricted free agents to offer sheets after March 1st, it appeared Denver would be Chandler's only option, but returning early could open up a few more opportunities for him.
Trade Exceptions Due To Expire Next Week
In certain NBA trade scenarios, a team can acquire a traded player exception, which is worth a specific amount of money and can be used at any time over the next year. These trade exceptions allow teams to acquire one or more players without sending any salary back. However, if a team has obtained multiple trade exceptions, it can't combine them to acquire a more expensive player.
For more details on how trade exceptions can be obtained, check out our glossary of salary cap exceptions and Larry Coon's CBA FAQ, but here's a practical example:
When the Mavericks worked out a sign-and-trade deal to send Tyson Chandler to the Knicks prior to the season, the Mavs acquired a traded player exception worth about $13.11MM — Chandler's 2011/12 cap figure. The Mavs used most of that exception to absorb Lamar Odom's salary in a trade with the Lakers, who in turn received a trade exception worth Odom's $8.9MM cap figure. Now, the Mavs have about $4.21MM of their exception remaining, while the Lakers have yet to use their $8.9MM exception.
A number of trade exceptions were obtained leading up to last season's February 24th trade deadline, and are set to expire within the next ten days. Teams aren't obligated to use their exceptions — the amounts of some exceptions aren't substantial enough to be useful, and most will simply expire quietly. But they're worth keeping an eye on over the next week and a half.
Here's the complete list of trade exceptions due to expire by next Friday:
Feb. 22nd
- Nuggets: $4,640,536 (Carmelo Anthony), $1,675,000 (Renaldo Balkman), $854,389 (Shelden Williams)
Feb. 23rd
- Hawks: $1,042,320 (Jordan Crawford)
- Hornets: $762,195 (Marcus Thornton)
- Jazz: $1,815,873 (Deron Williams)
Feb. 24th
- Bobcats: $1,486,330 (Gerald Wallace)
- Celtics: $473,604 (Semih Erden), $473,604 (Luke Harangody)
Storytellers Contracts was used in the creation of this list.
Northwest Notes: Afflalo, Blazers, Timberwolves
The Nuggets re-signed Arron Afflalo to a five-year, $43MM deal six days before the season began, and have since watched him lose a point off his scoring average (11.6 PPG this year) and turn the ball over a career-high 1.3 times a night. He's had a pair of his best performances of the season the last two times he stepped on the floor, lending credence to the idea that his unsettled contract situation and resulting lack of preparation time led to his poor early-season play, says Aaron J. Lopez of NBA.com.
Here's more from the Northwest Division:
- After hinting that lineup changes could be coming, Blazers coach Nate McMillan said he's sticking with his current starting five, reports Joe Freeman of The Oregonian. Fellow Oregonian writer John Canzano suggests that, in the wake of Jeremy Lin's surprising play, McMillan should find more minutes for young, unproven talent like Nolan Smith and Elliot Williams.
- The Timberwolves, who have been starting Luke Ridnour, a point guard, at the two, are likely to acquire a true shooting guard via trade, tweets Steve Kyler of HoopsWorld.
Odds & Ends: Nowitzki, 76ers, Hornets, Nuggets
With three of the top five trending New York Times stories involving Knicks guard Jeremy Lin (via tweet from NYT reporter Michael Luo), let's take a look around the rest of the league to see what else is happening.
- Kevin Sherrington of the Dallas Morning News says Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki has responded to Charles Barkley's proclamation that the 11-time All-Star is in decline with a strong showing of vintage Dirk in recent play. Sherrington contends the 14-year veteran still has enough talent and drive left to challenge Jerry West's record of 14 consecutive All-Star nomations. Simply put, Nowitzki's slow start should be attributed to a long offseason rather than diminished skills.
- The 76ers need to make a trade if they want to compete for a championship this season, writes Mike Missanelli of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Missanelli points to the erratic nature of the 2011/2012 season as a reason why the road to the NBA championship remains wide open just two weeks before the start of the 2012 All-Star Game. Paul Pierce and Monta Ellis are mentioned as two possible pieces that could take a young, balanced 76ers roster to the next level without having to sacrifice the future.
- The departure of All-Star point guard Chris Paul via trade has led to a difficult path for Hornets head coach Monty Williams, says John Reid of The Times-Picayune. After losing Eric Gordon, the centerpiece of the Paul trade, to injury in early January, the Hornets have spiralled to the worst record (4-23) in the Western Conference. As such, Williams has turned to his peers around the NBA for wisdom including Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich.
- Christopher Dempsey of The Denver Post examines how the Nuggets can get by without having a true closer to win games for the team like the Lakers closer Kobe Bryant. Barring a trade, the Nuggets will have to continue to rely on Al Harrington toward the end of the game. Harrington is shooting 56% when there are less than five minutes to play in games separated by five points or less.
Odds & Ends: Jennings, Deng, Spurs
On this date last year, Jerry Sloan stepped down after 23 seasons as coach of the Jazz. Earlier today we passed along the news that at least six teams are trying to convince Sloan to come back to the bench. Here are some more tidbits from around the league today:
- Bucks GM John Hammond told Charles F. Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel he was caught off guard by what Brandon Jennings said about possibly leaving the team for a larger market. While Jennings is under team control until the summer of 2014, Ersan Ilyasova will be an unrestricted free-agent at the end of this season. There's a strong possibility Ilyasova, from Turkey, may favor a return to Europe, as HoopsWorld's Stephen Brotherston examines.
- Luol Deng's selection as an All-Star reserve vindicates the Bulls for hanging on to him amidst many trade rumors over the years, writes Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer.
- Manu Ginobili's return, set for Saturday against the Nets, creates a rotation puzzle for Spurs coach Gregg Popovich to figure out, writes Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News.
- When Tyson Chandler went to the Knicks, the Mavs championship defense supposedly went with him, writes Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News. But, Gosselin opines that the team's ability to play defense even without last year's shot-blocking center will help them defend their title. (Subscription link)
- DeMarre Carroll, who was picked up Wednesday by the Jazz, was close to signing with Utah before the season started, Salt Lake Tribune writer Brian T. Smith tweets. Carroll signed instead with the Nuggets, who waived him Feb. 4.
- Chicago, the hometown of Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade, has also produced Anthony Davis, who is projected as the top overall pick this June, and Jabari Parker, the consensus No. 1 high school player. That makes the Windy City the center of the hoops universe, opines ESPN's Scoop Jackson.
- Dirk Nowitzki, who watched Ricky Rubio in Europe, didn't think the Wolves rookie sensation would have quite the impact he's having in the NBA, notes Dwain Price of the Fort Worth Star Telegram.
Chandler Plans To Re-Sign With Nuggets
10:18pm: Despite a wave of interest coming from several teams throughout the league, Wilson Chandler plans to rejoin the Nuggets upon returning to the NBA. In a tweet, Marc Spears of Yahoo! reports that Chandler will either sign on for the rest of this season, or to a long-term deal.
5:10pm: As we discussed earlier today, Wilson Chandler's status as a restricted free agent when he returns from China could limit his NBA options. Chandler is preparing for such a scenario and hopes to sign a long-term contract with the Nuggets, according to Alex Kennedy of HoopsWorld.
Chandler's Zhejiang Lions currently rank eighth in the CBA, which would just barely qualify them for the postseason. If they fall out of the playoffs over the next week, Chandler could return to America this month and be eligible to receive offer sheets from any NBA team. However, if the Lions play past March 1st, NBA clubs wouldn't be permitted to sign Chandler to an offer sheet when his contract in China ends, meaning he could only play in Denver this season.
According to Kennedy, Chandler is prepared to sit out the rest of the NBA season if he returns after March 1st and he and the Nuggets can't work out a long-term deal. In that case, the 24-year-old would again be a restricted free agent this summer, with the restrictions on offer sheets lifted.
Restricted Free Agency May Limit Chandler, Brooks
Fans of the Knicks, Clippers, and a handful of other teams are anxiously awaiting J.R. Smith's return to the NBA, but Smith isn't the only intriguing free-agent-to-be still under contract in China. Wilson Chandler and Aaron Brooks are also expected to head back to America when their Chinese teams finish their respective seasons.
Rumors and speculation have followed Smith more than the others in part because he'll be an unrestricted free agent when his Chinese contract expires, meaning he'll be free to sign with any NBA team. Chandler and Brooks, on the other hand, are restricted free agents under the control of the Nuggets and Suns, respectively. As such, their NBA options may be limited.
As Larry Coon writes at HoopsWorld today, players aren't allowed to sign offer sheets after March 1st of any season, including this one. While the Chinese regular season ends on February 15th, Chandler's and Brooks' clubs both appear ticketed for the postseason, meaning they could be playing in China well into March. If Chandler and Brooks return to America in March, they could only play for the Nuggets and Suns, since sign-and-trade agreements aren't allowed during the season.
If a restricted free agent like Chandler and Brooks hopes to field offers from other teams this season, one of three things must happen, as Coon outlines:
- His Chinese club must finish its season in February, giving him a chance to sign offer sheets with teams before March 1st.
- His Chinese club must release him before March 1st, and FIBA must grant him a letter of clearance. This was how Kenyon Martin was able to return early to the NBA, though Martin was an unrestricted free agent upon his return.
- His NBA club must renounce his rights, making him an unrestricted free agent. It seems unlikely that the Nuggets or Suns would give up their rights to Chandler and Brooks for nothing, but it's a possibility.
The idea of an influx of quality free agents making their way back from China in the next month is exciting, but a number of obstacles must be cleared for that idea to become a reality. At least one thing is certain: We'll be paying extra-close attention to the CBA postseason this year.