Nuggets Rumors

2024/25 NBA Over/Unders: Northwest Division

With the 2024/25 NBA regular season set to tip off next month, we’re getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and continuing an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a series of sports betting sites – including Bovada and BetOnline – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2023/24, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’24/25?

We’ll continue our series today with the Northwest Division…


Oklahoma City Thunder

How many games will the Thunder win in 2024/25?
Over 56.5 68.11% (252 votes)
Under 56.5 31.89% (118 votes)
Total Votes: 370

Minnesota Timberwolves

How many games will the Timberwolves win in 2024/25?
Over 52.5 65.16% (230 votes)
Under 52.5 34.84% (123 votes)
Total Votes: 353

Denver Nuggets

How many games will the Nuggets win in 2024/25?
Over 51.5 54.28% (184 votes)
Under 51.5 45.72% (155 votes)
Total Votes: 339

Utah Jazz

How many games will the Jazz win in 2024/25?
Under 29.5 60.87% (196 votes)
Over 29.5 39.13% (126 votes)
Total Votes: 322

Portland Trail Blazers

How many games will the Trail Blazers win in 2024/25?
Under 22.5 54.71% (186 votes)
Over 22.5 45.29% (154 votes)
Total Votes: 340

Previous voting results:

Atlantic

  • Boston Celtics (58.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
  • New York Knicks (53.5 wins): Over (58.8%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (52.5 wins): Under (51.7%)
  • Toronto Raptors (30.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (19.5 wins): Over (54.3%)

Southwest

  • Dallas Mavericks (49.5 wins): Over (78.0%)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (47.5 wins): Under (65.6%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (46.5 wins): Under (60.6%)
  • Houston Rockets (43.5 wins): Under (51.4%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (36.5 wins): Under (52.9%)

Southeast

  • Orlando Magic (47.5 wins): Over (57.1%)
  • Miami Heat (44.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (35.5 wins): Under (66.4%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (29.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
  • Washington Wizards (20.5 wins): Under (56.6%)

And-Ones: Cousins, Murray, Draft Prospects, Hot Seats

Former NBA center DeMarcus Cousins won’t reach out to NBA teams to get another chance to play in the league, he said on the Club 520 podcast (hat tip to Hoops Hype).

“I’m not going to go out trying to convince these guys anymore,” he said. “You know what I bring to the floor. It’s been proven. If you really wanted to know who I am, you’d take the time to get to know me instead of listening to somebody else. I’m past trying to reach out. If an opportunity comes that makes sense, I’ll consider it, but I’m done with the convincing.”

Cousins recently joined Wuxi WenLv, a Chinese team on the FIBA 3×3 World Tour. Cousins, who has been out of the NBA since 2022, has played for professional teams in Puerto Rico, Taiwan, and the Philippines since that point.

We have more from around the basketball world:

  • Jamal Murray‘s contract extension agreement with the Nuggets is good news for Canada’s basketball program, Michael Grange of Sportsnet opines. Murray took a lot of criticism during the Paris Olympics for his subpar performances and there were long-term concerns about his health. The possibility that Murray’s performances for Canada would be used against him in contract negotiations was a scenario the program didn’t want or need. It could have been the kind of cautionary tale that could create obstacles regarding team-building in the future, according to Grange.
  • Several prospects in the NBA’s next two draft classes have boosted their stock this summer and Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report takes a look at some of those risers. That group includes Baylor freshman guard V.J. Edgecombe and Illinois swingman Kasparas Jakucionis, as well as Cameron Boozer (draft-eligible in 2026).
  • Bulls top executive Arturas Karnisovas and head coach Billy Donovan, Bucks GM Jon Horst and coach Doc Rivers, Grizzlies coach Taylor Jenkins, and Nuggets GM Calvin Booth are among the GMs, presidents and coaches who have the most to prove this NBA season, according to ESPN’s Insiders.

Southwest Notes: Barnes, Toney, Mavs TV Deal

Harrison Barnes knows his experience will be valuable to the Spurs’ young roster, according to Matt Guzman of Sports Illustrated.

“Obviously, coming in with (Chris Paul), we’re going to be two of the older guys in the locker room,” Barnes said. “Just getting a chance to talk with some of the guys here, there’s good energy, good excitement. I definitely look forward to putting my arm around guys and getting to work.”

Barnes will also provide perimeter shooting (38% on 3-point attempts in his career) and solid defense, Guzman adds. Barnes was acquired in the three-team deal involving Sacramento and Chicago.

“(I’m here) to do anything that’s asked of me,” he said. “The goal every season is to go out there, play 82 games and give it my best.”

We have more from the Southwest Division:

  • The Pelicans’ NBA G League team, the Birmingham Squadron, has acquired the rights to guard Au’Diese Toney from the Nuggets’ G League team, the Grand Rapids Gold, in exchange for Tevian Jones, according to the Gold (Twitter link). Toney, 24, played in 12 regular-season games with the Gold last season, averaging 12.4 points, 6.4 rebounds and 2.3 assists. He was undrafted out of Arkansas. Jones, who was undrafted out of Southern Utah, appeared in 34 games for the Gold.
  • The Mavericks have chosen to have their games broadcast over a local, free over-the-air channel, according to a team press release. The agreement covers all games that are not on national TV. The new multi-year broadcast rights agreement with TEGNA will allow Dallas-area residents to watch the games on KMPX Dallas-Ft. Worth. The Mavs ended their broadcast deal with financially troubled Bally Sports last month.
  • In case you missed it, the Mavericks are bringing back Markieff Morris. Get the details here.

And-Ones: Curry, Near Trades, Payton Sr., West Teams’ Weaknesses

Stephen Curry, who recently signed a $62.6MM extension for the 2026/27 season, has already made more money in the 2020s than any player in any decade in NBA history, HoopsHype tweets.

The Warriors superstar has already racked up $229MM in this decade through the 2023/24 season. LeBron James made $226.4MM in the 2010s, while Kevin Garnett earned $215.5MM in the 2000s.

We have more from the basketball world:

  • Remember in 2019 when Paul George and Russell Westbrook were dealt to the Raptors? Do you recall back in 2007 when Garnett was dealt to the Warriors? Or in 2011 when the Lakers added an in-his-prime Chris Paul? Of course, none of those trades actually came to fruition. Mark Deeks of HoopsHype looks back at some of the biggest near trades in NBA history.
  • ‘The Glove’ has found a head coaching job in the junior college ranks. Former NBA star Gary Payton Sr. is the new head coach at the College of Alameda, according to Marc Spears of ESPN (Twitter link). Payton, inherits a program that went 7-21 last season while playing in the Bay Valley Conference. Payton, 56, has also been coaching in the Big3 league since its inception in 2017.
  • The Nuggets need to add more 3-point shooting, Tim Bontemps of ESPN notes. They lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who shot over 40% from deep in two seasons with Denver, in free agency. In the subscriber-only story, Bontemps also looks at the biggest weaknesses on the Lakers, Timberwolves, Pelicans and Kings rosters.

Hornets’ Vasilije Micic Dismisses Trade Rumors

Serbian point guard Vasilije Micic confirmed that he will remain with the Hornets and dismissed offseason trade speculation, according to Johnny Askounis of Eurohoops. Speaking to the media after a mural dedication ceremony in Belgrade, Micic said he is looking forward to the start of training camp with the team.

“I am staying in Charlotte. That is official,” he said. “All these rumors out there, I did not want to comment until something concrete. Probably, there was some interest, but nothing enough for me to comment. I am happy they want me here and I think the next season will be more productive for me.”

The Hornets acquired Micic at the February trade deadline in the deal that sent Gordon Hayward to Oklahoma City. He appeared in 30 games after the trade, making 21 starts and averaging 10.8 points, 2.1 rebounds and 6.2 assists while shooting 43.7% from the field and just 29.4% from three-point range.

Micic will likely be moved to a reserve role this season as LaMelo Ball returns from ankle tendinopathy. Micic came off the bench in all 30 games he played for OKC.

Last year was the first NBA season for the 30-year-old, who was taken 52nd overall by Philadelphia as a draft and stash pick in 2014. He was a star in the EuroLeague for several years, mainly for Anadolu Efes in Turkey.

There have been rumors over the summer that the Nuggets may have interest in acquiring Micic to team him up with countryman Nikola Jokic. They have played together on the Serbian national team for several years and captured a bronze medal at the Paris Olympics.

“I would like to play with Jokic, but I do not know what will happen,” Micic said. “I think I need one more year to show what I can do in the United States. Whatever you do outside American soil, they still only trust players proven in the USA. So, I think that one season with a trade and two solid months is not enough for a team of such caliber to be sure to bring me in. But maybe next season. We will see.”

Micic will make $7.7MM this season, and the Hornets hold an $8.1MM option for 2025/26. He will become a free agent next summer if the team decides not to exercise that option.

Northwest Notes: Hartenstein, Edwards, Gobert, Nuggets

The debate over whether or not Isaiah Hartenstein should start for the Thunder remains a hot topic among fans in Oklahoma City as training camp nears, writes Joel Lorenzi of The Oklahoman.

Lorenzi expects Hartenstein to toggle back and forth between the starting five and the second unit depending on matchups, writing that whether or not he starts matters less than the lineups he’ll play with.

Lorenzi wouldn’t be surprised if the Thunder’s top free agent addition plays alongside Chet Holmgren frequently at the start of the season, as head coach Mark Daigneault gathers information on how the duo performs together, but Hartenstein will also be a crucial piece in non-Holmgren lineups, which badly needed a rim protector last season, Lorenzi notes.

Here’s more from around the Northwest:

  • The ongoing development of Anthony Edwards is the key to the Timberwolves continuing to raise their ceiling, according to John Schuhmann of NBA.com, who breaks down some numbers and film in considering how the All-NBA guard could keep getting better.
  • Referring to the four-time Defensive Player of the Year as the league’s “favorite pin cushion,” Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic defends Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert from some of the criticism he’s taking this offseason after being on the wrong end of a Luka Doncic highlight in the Western Conference Finals and playing limited minutes for France during their run to a silver medal at the Paris Olympics. Gobert was a huge part of Minnesota’s success last season and will be even more critical in 2024/25, Krawczynski contends.
  • In a subscriber-only mailbag for The Denver Post, Bennett Durando explores several Nuggets-related topics, including what Michael Porter Jr.‘s next contract might look like and where Zeke Nnaji stands as he enters a four-year, $32MM extension. General manager Calvin Booth has made it clear he still believes in Nnaji, Durando writes, but the big man’s deal “obviously looks terrible” after a poor 2023/24 showing.

Northwest Notes: Malone, Nuggets, Wiggins, Thunder

After a similar report surfaced in August from another outlet, Zach Lowe of ESPN said on his podcast this week (hat tip to RealGM) that there are “rumblings” that Michael Malone and the Nuggets front office aren’t seeing eye to eye “to a degree even unusual for the NBA.”

This offseason, the Nuggets lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to free agency one year after losing key role players in Jeff Green and Bruce Brown. General manager Calvin Booth has targeted young players to develop to try and offset the losses of these veterans, but they haven’t been one-to-one replacements.

As noted by RealGM, Booth’s contract expires after the 2024/25 season while Malone’s runs through ’26/27. It’s not exactly clear to what degree Malone and the front office aren’t clicking, but Denver took a step back after winning the title in 2023 and doesn’t have a clear replacement for what Caldwell-Pope brought to the table as one of the premier 3-and-D role-players in the league.

For what it’s worth, Booth didn’t exactly put any rumors to rest with his comments in May.

“We’ve talked about this a lot upstairs,” Booth said in May. “The general manager, front office job oftentimes is to make sure the long-term view is something that we’re satisfied with. And Coach Malone’s down there in the trenches trying to win every night. And a lot of times, those things are aligned, but sometimes they ebb and flow away from each other.”

We have more from the Northwest Division:

Just One Team Has Used Full Non-Taxpayer MLE So Far

As long as a team is operating below the second tax apron, it has access to at least some form of the mid-level exception, a tool designed to allow clubs to add talent without using cap room to do so. As we outline in more detail within our glossary, one of the following MLEs is available to a team below the second apron of $188,931,000:

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000): For teams operating between the first and second tax aprons.
  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12,822,000): For teams operating above the cap and below the first apron.
  • Room exception ($7,983,000): For teams who operate under the cap and use up all their room.

While four teams – the Celtics, Suns, Timberwolves, and Bucks – currently have salaries above the second tax apron, the other 26 clubs have access to one of these three mid-level exceptions. However, only a small handful of those clubs have actually taken advantage of the exception, as our tracker shows.

The Warriors are the lone team to use the full portion of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception so far in 2024/25, having signed free agent guard De’Anthony Melton a one-year contract worth $12,822,000.

Four other teams have used at least some portion of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, but still have a chunk left over for one or more signings later in the league year. That group includes the Bulls (approximately $4.25MM remaining), Mavericks ($4.25MM), Clippers ($3.3MM), and Wizards ($6.38MM). They used part of their MLEs to sign Jalen Smith, Naji Marshall, Derrick Jones, and Saddiq Bey, respectively.

The Nuggets used the entire $5.2MM taxpayer mid-level exception to add Dario Saric in free agency, while the Sixers re-signed Kelly Oubre using their full $8MM room exception.

The remaining 19 teams have yet to dip into their mid-level or room exceptions at all.

In some cases, it’s not practical to do so. For example, the Heat and Lakers technically have access to the taxpayer MLE, but are so close to the second apron that they can’t realistically use it without shedding some salary.

Other teams are close enough to the luxury tax line that it wouldn’t make sense for them to spend their mid-level exception and become a taxpayer. The Nets and Hawks, for instance, have yet to touch their MLEs, but they’re each less than $2MM away from the tax threshold, so it’s safe to assume neither team is on the verge of bringing in an MLE-level free agent.

Still, there are plenty of teams that have more than enough spending flexibility to use some or all of their exception. That group includes every club with access to the room exception, including potential contenders such as the Thunder and Magic.

The 2024/25 season represents the first league year in which teams are permitted to use the non-taxpayer mid-level exception or the room exception to acquire a player via trade rather than just to sign a player to a contract, so some clubs may be waiting until mid-season to see if a better opportunity arises on the trade market. Others may use some of their leftover exception money to pursue a free agent on the buyout market in February.

Teams Limited To Minimum Salary Contract Offers

There won’t be a ton of free agents who sign for more than the veteran’s minimum between now and the end of the NBA’s regular season. The majority of the players whose markets exceeded the minimum came off the board pretty quickly in July, and teams aren’t looking to spend big on the players who are still available.

Still, that certainly doesn’t mean every signing for the next seven months will be of the minimum-salary variety. In some cases – especially on the buyout market in February – being able to offer a couple million dollars more than the minimum could be the difference between a team landing a free agent and missing out on him.

With that in mind, it’s worth checking in on which teams don’t currently have the ability to offer more than the minimum. By our count, a third of the NBA is in this boat, though some of those clubs could generate some spending flexibility by making cost-cutting trades.

Here’s a breakdown of the teams currently limited to minimum-salary contract offers for free agents:

Teams above the second tax apron:

  • Boston Celtics
  • Milwaukee Bucks
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Phoenix Suns

Teams operating above the second tax apron, which comes in at $188,931,000 in 2024/25, face a series of roster-building restrictions, including being prohibited from using any form of the mid-level exception, as well as the bi-annual exception.

The Celtics, Bucks, Timberwolves, and Suns all fall into that group of teams above the second apron and therefore don’t have any cap exceptions available to use on free agents besides the minimum salary exception.

Teams very close to the second tax apron:

  • Los Angeles Lakers
  • Miami Heat

Because their team salaries are below the second apron, the Lakers and Heat each technically have the ability to use their taxpayer mid-level exception, which is worth $5,168,000 this season.

However, both clubs are operating so close to the second apron that using any portion of the taxpayer MLE would push team salary above that threshold, which isn’t permitted — a team that uses the taxpayer MLE can’t have a salary above the second apron upon the completion of the signing (or at any time after that).

Therefore, unless they make a move to shed salary, the Lakers and Heat will be limited to minimum-salary signings from here on out.

Over-the-cap teams that have used all their cap exceptions:

  • Denver Nuggets
  • Philadelphia 76ers

The Nuggets are currently operating between the first and second tax aprons and have already used their taxpayer mid-level exception to sign Dario Saric. Because the bi-annual exception isn’t available to teams above the first apron, Denver can no longer offer more than the veteran’s minimum.

The Sixers, meanwhile, used their entire room exception to re-sign Kelly Oubre after spending all their cap space. They’re now well over the cap and only have the minimum salary exception left to sign a free agent outright.

It’s worth noting that acquiring a player via sign-and-trade is technically a possibility prior to opening night for teams who have used up all their cap exceptions and want to add a free agent for more than the minimum. However, that’s not currently a practical option for either Denver or Philadelphia, who are both above the first tax apron.

Teams right up against their hard caps:

  • Dallas Mavericks
  • Golden State Warriors

The Mavericks have about $4.25MM of their mid-level exception still available after using a portion of it to sign Naji Marshall, and both Dallas and Golden State still have their full bi-annual exceptions on hand.

Based on the roster moves they’ve made so far this summer though, both the Mavs and Warriors are hard-capped at the first apron of $178,132,000 and are less than $1MM away from that hard cap. In other words, unless they shed salary by trading or waiving one or more of their current players, those two teams aren’t just prohibited from using their remaining exceptions — they’re also unable to add another minimum-salary player on a standard contract.

Dallas and Golden State are each carrying at least one player with a non-guaranteed salary, so it would technically be possible for, say, the Mavs to cut A.J. Lawson and then use a portion of their mid-level exception to sign a free agent. However, their breathing room below the hard cap is so limited that any signings above the minimum are unlikely, unless a cost-cutting trade generates more flexibility — the same goes for the Warriors.

Northwest Notes: Westbrook, Stojakovic, Jokic, Sexton

Nuggets president Josh Kroenke recently discussed the team’s decision to sign former league MVP Russell Westbrook to a two-year deal, Bennett Durando of The Denver Post relays.

As Durando notes, Westbrook is on track to play for his fifth team in six years. In a reduced role as a reserve for the Clippers last season, the 35-year-old averaged a career-low 11.1 points and 4.5 assists, along with 5.0 rebounds and 1.1 steals, across 22.5 minutes per game.

“I got a chance to meet him for the first time right after he signed, and as I said to him, I’m very grateful that he’s on this side,” Kroenke said. “Because I’ve watched him kind of tear our hearts out for so many years in Oklahoma City, among other places. So he’ll be a really good person for us to have, both on and off the court, with some of the young guys who we’re expecting to take bigger roles this year. Russ has seen it all, in and around the NBA, so he’s gonna be a big part of who we are both in the locker room and on the court.”

There’s more out of the Northwest Division:

  • Nuggets three-time MVP center Nikola Jokic remained underappreciated in his home country prior to this year’s Olympics, according to assistant coach Ognjen Stojakovic, who suggested that Serbia’s bronze medal helped boost Jokic’s stock even higher. “Generally, the first thing I notice is that our people weren’t aware of how great a basketball player Nikola is, how good he is,” Stojakovic said in an interview with Milun Nesovic of Meridian Sport (hat tip to Eurohoops.net for the translation). “Simply, if you don’t win something with the national team, you’re not valued as much as those who have, regardless of your success elsewhere. Nikola did win silver with Serbia in Rio, but he didn’t have as significant a role as he (did in Paris). My opinion—people are only now beginning to realize how great a player he is.”
  • Jazz point guard Collin Sexton recently asserted that he is a top-10 player at his position and is capable of breaking into the top five. “I put myself against anybody,” Sexton said on the “It Is What It Is” podcast with hosts Cam’ron, Ma$e and Treasure “Stat Baby” Wilson (YouTube video link). “At the end of the day, I don’t back down from nobody. I got a different type of chip on my shoulder. I got a different type of grind. When I step between those lines, it’s me against you.” Last season with the 31-51 Jazz, Sexton averaged 18.7 points per game on a .487/.394/.859 shooting line, chipping in 4.9 assists per contest.
  • In case you missed it, Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was voted the favorite to be named 2024/25 league MVP in a poll of NBA coaches and executives. Last year, the 6’6″ All-Star finished second in MVP voting to Jokic.