2025/26 NBA Over/Unders: Central Division
With the 2025/26 NBA regular season tipping off later this month, we’re getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and continuing an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.
With the help of the lines from a series of sports betting sites – including BetMGM and BetOnline – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.
In 2024/25, our voters went 13-17 on their over/under picks. Can we top that in ’25/26?
We’ll continue our series today with the Central Division…
Cleveland Cavaliers
- 2024/25 record: 64-18
- Over/under for 2025/26: 56.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Lonzo Ball, Larry Nance Jr., Tyrese Proctor, Thomas Bryant
- Lost: Ty Jerome, Isaac Okoro, Javonte Green, Chuma Okeke, Tristan Thompson
Detroit Pistons
- 2024/25 record: 44-38
- Over/under for 2025/26: 46.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
Milwaukee Bucks
- 2024/25 record: 48-34
- Over/under for 2025/26: 42.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
Indiana Pacers
- 2024/25 record: 50-32
- Over/under for 2025/26: 37.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Jay Huff, James Wiseman, Kam Jones
- Lost: Myles Turner, Thomas Bryant, James Johnson
- Note: Tyrese Haliburton has been ruled out for the season due to a torn Achilles.
Chicago Bulls
- 2024/25 record: 39-43
- Over/under for 2025/26: 32.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Isaac Okoro, Noa Essengue
- Lost: Lonzo Ball, Talen Horton-Tucker
Previous voting results:
- New York Knicks (53.5 wins): Over (63.2%)
- Boston Celtics (42.5 wins): Over (52.7%)
- Philadelphia 76ers (42.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
- Toronto Raptors (37.5 wins): Over (50.2%)
- Brooklyn Nets (20.5 wins): Over (54.4%)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (62.5 wins): Over (62.9%)
- Denver Nuggets (53.5 wins): Over (72.1%)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (49.5 wins): Over (58.7%)
- Portland Trail Blazers (34.5 wins): Over (57.1%)
- Utah Jazz (18.5 wins): Over (55.3%).
Pacers Notes: Wright, Walker, Guy, G League Trade
Although point guard Delon Wright isn’t guaranteed a regular season roster spot with the Pacers, he has a couple factors working in his favor, writes Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star.
For one, while the Pacers are already carrying 15 players on standard contracts, one of those 15 is journeyman center Tony Bradley, whose salary for 2025/26 is non-guaranteed. As Dopirak observes, Bradley would be Indiana’s fourth center and may not be a necessary piece on this roster unless the team has concerns about one or both of Isaiah Jackson and James Wiseman, who are returning from Achilles tears.
Wright has also played for Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle before — Carlisle was the head coach in Dallas when the veteran guard played a regular role off the bench for the Mavericks in 2019/20.
“Delon’s a good NBA player,” Carlisle said earlier this week. “He played for us in Dallas. He’s had good stints in a lot of places. … There’s an opportunity there for him. He seems to be in a good place physically and mentally. I think our style suits his abilities quite well.”
Competing for a roster spot in training camp is a new experience for Wright, who has appeared in 548 regular season games and another 47 playoff contests since entering the NBA as the 20th overall pick in the 2015 draft.
“I’ve never actually been in this situation,” Wright said. “I’ve been around the league 11 years now. They know what I do. They brought me here for a reason. If I am on the team, good. If not, I know I’ll give it my all. A lot of it is out of my control.”
Here’s more on the Pacers:
- Jarace Walker came off the board eighth overall in the 2023 draft, but has played a relatively limited role at the NBA level thus far, averaging 14.1 minutes per night in 108 total appearances. Walker, who says he has learned a lot from Pascal Siakam, is extra motivated to make an impact after not getting to play in the NBA Finals due to a sprained ankle. The third-year forward has earned praise from Carlisle for his “tremendous” conditioning and hard work in camp. “It’s difficult being a top-10 pick,” Carlisle said, according to Dopirak (subscription required). “You feel like you’re supposed to go in there and be an impact guy. In our situation, his position was pretty crowded, so it took time. But he’s learned and he’s worked extremely hard and he’s positioned himself to be a major factor on this team.”
- Given that he was supposed to work as an assistant coach at the University of Nevada this season, Kyle Guy is an unlikely addition to the Pacers’ preseason roster. However, he tells Dopirak (subscription required) that he jumped at the opportunity when he got an Exhibit 10 offer from Indiana and is looking forward to playing for the team’s G League affiliate, the Noblesville Boom, while holding out hope that he can turn the audition into something more. “The goal is to make the (Pacers’) roster,” Guy said. “I’m not an idiot. I don’t know if that’s in the cards right now, but I think after I get my feet under me and play for the Boom and help establish a winning culture and a fun atmosphere there that I could make those things happen down the road.”
- Speaking of the Boom, Indiana’s NBAGL affiliate made a trade on Thursday, acquiring forward Ray Spalding‘s returning rights from the Rio Grande Valley Vipers (the Rockets‘ affiliate) in exchange for a 2026 first-round pick, tweets Scott Agness of Fieldhouse Files. That could point to Spalding signing an Exhibit 10 deal with the Pacers later in camp to ensure he gets a bonus for playing for Noblesville this season.
Wolves Notes: Conley, Randle, DiVincenzo, Reid
After dealing with multiple health issues – including a wrist injury – last fall, Timberwolves point guard Mike Conley feels much better entering the 2025/26 season, having been able to do his normal work during the offseason, as Chris Hine of The Star Tribune writes.
“Completely different summer,” Conley said. “More what I’m used to, being able to work every day. As soon as we got out of the playoffs, I was back just being able to get into my routines and scheduled everything out like I normally do. I feel right on schedule for training camp and in shape ready to go. So it was a breath of fresh air to be able to work again and shoot basketballs and do all that, that I wasn’t able to do the summer before.”
Conley, who will turn 38 next Saturday, set career lows in several statistical categories in 2024/25, including points (8.2) and minutes (24.7) per game, as well as usage rate (14.4%). However, he has been more assertive in training camp, according to Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic, who notes that Conley believes he can bounce back and be more effective than he was last season if he gets a few more opportunities to initiate the offense.
“To be the best version (of myself), it’s having the ball, I think,” Conley told reporters on media day. “That doesn’t mean I need to shoot it. I don’t need to shoot, but as a point guard, I’ve grown up playing the position in the way I play it. You have a better feel for the game when you are initiating, when you’re controlling a little bit more, dictating how the game is flowing. You get kind of stagnant when you sit in certain areas, maybe sit in the corner for too long, or don’t touch the ball for a couple possessions, or four or five minutes.”
Of course, Conley often shares the floor with a pair of high-level scorers in Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, who both need the ball in their hands to be effective as well. But the veteran point guard made it clear he doesn’t want to take scoring opportunities away from either of those players, suggesting he can help get them easy points in fast-break situations.
“We talk about it all the time, and it’s something that I tell them every time,” Conley said, per Krawczynski. “If I get the ball, I promise y’all, I’m not trying to go shoot this thing. I promise you, if you run, I’m gonna throw it up to you. I want to play quarterback, all-time quarterback. That’s what I want to do.”
We have more on the Wolves:
- A year after being unexpectedly traded from New York to Minnesota as training camp was about to begin, Randle has a new three-year contract in hand and feels at home as a Timberwolf, according to Krawczynski. “Now it just feels very settled,” Randle said ahead of his second season in Minnesota. “I would say even this summer and leading up to the season is probably the happiest I’ve been in a really long time as far as just career, family, everything. … My work-life balance, or just my ability to separate the two, have been a lot better since I’ve been here.”
- Timberwolves wing Donte DiVincenzo didn’t play for Italy at this year’s EuroBasket tournament due to the turf toe issue that affected him last season and required him to play with a plate in his shoe. However, he told reporters this week that he feels “110 percent” ready for the coming season, per Hine. “I had the option to get surgery. I elected not to,” DiVincenzo said. “Surgery would have put me out, I think, five, six months, and we put a plate in the shoe to restrict that mobility of my toe. … Because now the season ended, I pulled the plate out of my shoe. I want to get back to being my normal self, and so it’s all precautionary. There’s nothing to worry about to start the season.”
- An offseason that should have been a rewarding one for Naz Reid, who signed the most lucrative contract of any 2025 free agent ($125MM over five years), took a tragic turn last month when his sister was shot and killed in New Jersey. The Wolves big man, a fan favorite in Minnesota, entered training camp this week with a heavy heart, as Krawczynski writes for The Athletic. “I’ve been (getting) better, been on the up and up,” Reid said. “A lot of people around me are supporting. Things don’t really go as planned in life, but you know, there’s a lot of situations where … like I said before, I’ve got a lot of support and it helps a lot.”
Bulls Exercise Matas Buzelis’ 2026/27 Option
The Bulls have exercised their third-year rookie scale team option on forward Matas Buzelis, tweets Keith Smith of Spotrac.
The move guarantees Buzelis’ salary for the 2026/27 season. Last year’s 11th overall pick will earn $5.46MM in his second NBA season in ’25/26 and is now locked into a $5.72MM salary for ’26/27. Chicago will have until November 2, 2026 to decide whether or not to pick up his fourth-year option for ’27/28, worth $7.58MM.
Buzelis, who will turn 21 later this month, got off to a slow start as a rookie, scoring double-digit points just four times in his first 45 games and averaging 5.0 points and 2.7 rebounds per game with a 38.6% field goal percentage during that stretch.
However, he had a strong finish to the year, putting up 13.3 PPG and 4.5 RPG with a .494/.373/.817 shooting line over the course of his final 35 games. That second-half production propelled Buzelis to a spot on the All-Rookie second team.
Buzelis projects to be a significant part of the Bulls’ future, so this decision comes as no surprise, and it seems pretty safe to assume his fourth-year option will be exercised a year from now too. In that scenario, the 6’10” forward would become eligible for a rookie scale extension during the 2027 offseason and would reach restricted free agency in 2028 if he doesn’t sign a new contract before then.
Teams have until October 31 to make their decisions on rookie scale team options for the 2026/27 season. Buzelis is the fourth player to have his option picked up.
Western Notes: Kuminga, Kleber, Coward, Blazers, Grant
After Jonathan Kuminga took part in his first Warriors practice of training camp on Thursday – he participated in about half the team’s scrimmages, per head coach Steve Kerr (Twitter video link) – the 22-year-old forward publicly discussed his contract situation for the first time since finalizing a two-year, $46.8MM deal that includes a second-year team option.
Negotiations on that contract dragged on for the entire offseason in part because Kuminga reportedly didn’t want to simply become a trade chip after re-signing. So, now that he’s back under contract on a very tradable deal, does he feel as if the Warriors want to keep him for the long term?
“I would say so,” Kuminga said, per ESPN’s Anthony Slater. “Based on me being back here. At the end of the day, let’s see where this takes us. But my focus is this year pushing and actually helping us win. You never know what’s going to happen, but I’m happy, glad to be back.”
As for whether he wants to remain in Golden State for the long term? “I’m here now,” Kuminga said. “That’s everybody’s goal, to be somewhere for longer. You never know your future. So far that’s my goal. That’s what I want to accomplish. Being here for longer.”
Kuminga’s role has been inconsistent during his first four years in the NBA, including last spring, when he was a DNP-CD in a handful of games at the end of the season and in the postseason. He said on Thursday that he’s determined to find ways to “help us win” on both ends of the court in 2025/26 and that he intends to silence critics who believe he’s an offense-only player.
“If it’s on defense, if it’s an assignment, just go guard the best player,” Kuminga said. “Today we need you to score. Today we need you to guard certain people. That’s what I’m looking forward to and I’m open-minded to it.”
Here’s more from around the Western Conference:
- Lakers big man Maxi Kleber is dealing with a quad injury, but it’s considered minor, according to head coach JJ Redick, who said on Thursday the team is being cautious with Kleber and he’ll miss a few days (Twitter link via Jovan Buha). Kleber, acquired from Dallas in February’s Luka Doncic blockbuster, broke his foot in January and didn’t make his Lakers debut until Game 5 of their first-round series vs. Minnesota, the team’s last game of the season.
- Cedric Coward, the No. 11 pick in June’s draft, is earning praise from coaches and teammates alike at the Grizzlies‘ training camp at Belmont University this week, writes Damichael Cole of The Memphis Commercial Appeal. “I think he’s kind of exceeded my expectations,” point guard Scotty Pippen Jr. said. “I never really saw any of his (college) highlights, but I’ve played and I’ve been around top picks. I feel like he’s been one of the better ones I’ve ever seen.” Memphis gave up a future first-round pick and two second-rounders in order to move up five spots from No. 16 to draft Coward.
- After declaring at a July 22 press conference that it’s “winning time now” for the Trail Blazers, general manager Joe Cronin walked back that comment a little this week when he discussed the team’s expectations for the coming season, notes Sean Highkin of Rose Garden Report (Substack link). “Do we want to make the play-in? Yes,” Cronin said. “Do we want to make the playoffs? Yes. Do we want to win 16 playoff games? Yes. But I don’t have expectations and I won’t be disappointed if those things don’t happen as long as we’re continually growing. We’re still thinking big-picture with this roster.”
- On media day on Monday, Trail Blazers forward Jerami Grant answered a question about the possibility of him coming off the bench by replying, “I don’t really expect that.” On Thursday, Grant sought to clarify that he wouldn’t become disgruntled if he doesn’t end up starting. “I’m fine, man,” he said, per Highkin (Twitter link).
Cap Observations: Kuminga, Grimes, DPEs, Westbrook
Now that October 1, the deadline for a restricted free agent to sign his qualifying offer, has come and gone, the RFA standoffs that dominated headlines for most of the second half of the NBA offseason have all been resolved.
Josh Giddey and Jonathan Kuminga agreed to multiyear deals with the Bulls and Warriors, respectively, while Nets guard Cam Thomas and Sixers guard Quentin Grimes chose to accept their qualifying offers and hang onto their no-trade clauses for the 2025/26 season.
Today, with training camps in full swing around the NBA, we're taking a closer look at Kuminga's deal, Grimes' decision, and a few other cap- and roster-related topics from across the league.
Let's dive in...
Suns Notes: Green, Williams, Maluach, Hayes-Davis
New Suns guard Jalen Green is dealing with a “low grade” hamstring strain and won’t be available on Friday when Phoenix’s preseason schedule tips off, head coach Jordan Ott said on Thursday (Twitter link via Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic).
After facing the Lakers in Palm Springs on Friday, the Suns will travel to Macao, where they’ll face Brooklyn in a pair of preseason contests on October 10 and 12. According to Ott, Green will make that trip with the team, but isn’t necessarily a lock to play in either of those games against the Nets.
“He’ll be with us in China,” Ott said. “He’ll do what he can to see where we’re at in preseason, but we know the goal is that (Oct. 22 season opener).”
We have more on the Suns:
- Another newcomer, center Mark Williams, will also sit out Friday’s preseason opener, Rankin writes for The Arizona Republic. The big man has done everything in training camp except take part in live 5-on-5 action, and the Suns’ plan has always been to bring him along slowly after he was limited to 106 total outings across three seasons in Charlotte due to various health issues. “We’re trying to assess exactly where he is,” Ott said when asked if Williams would play in any of the team’s four preseason games. “The goal is there at the end of camp get him as ready as he can. He’s on a good path. Like I said, every drill work you’ve seen him in. Just not the live 5-on-5.”
- Rookie center Khaman Maluach was listed at 250 pounds during his lone season at Duke and at 253 ahead of Summer League. The 19-year-old confirmed this week that he has made an effort to bulk up in recent months as he prepares to do battle with NBA centers, per Rankin. “I added a little bit of weight, I’m like 263 now, 262,” Maluach said. “… It hasn’t really been (lifting) weights, weights. It’s just like developing and getting strong from like the base. Just working on my weak spots, whether it’s my hips, my knees, my quads and my upper body.”
- Veteran forward Nigel Hayes-Davis, who will be playing in the NBA this season for the first time since 2018, is confident that his game will translate from the EuroLeague to the NBA after he spent the better part of the past decade playing in Turkey, Spain, and Lithuania. “There was a lot of talk that it’s a different game between EuroLeague and the NBA,” Hayes-Davis said (Twitter video link). “Of course it is. But for me, I just need to play basketball and do what I do. I think the way I play basketball on both sides of the ball works in either league, on any continent.”
Bucks Notes: Rollins, Giannis, Anthony, Green, Turner
Bucks guard Ryan Rollins told reporters after Thursday’s practice that he played through a left shoulder injury last season and underwent surgery to address the issue about a week after the team was eliminated from the playoffs, per Eric Nehm of The Athletic (Twitter link). Although he admitted that his shoulder feels “a little different…range-wise,” Rollins clarified that it feels good and he has “no hesitation” in the shoulder.
“It was a four-month recovery,” he said. “I started back playing maybe the end of July, actually doing stuff on the court. And I would say my first live segment was not this week, but last week. So I’m just getting back into playing condition and all that, but I feel stronger. I feel good. I feel confident.”
Asked on Wednesday about what Rollins’ role would look like this season with Kevin Porter Jr. and Cole Anthony also in the point guard mix, head coach Doc Rivers made it clear that he’s not pigeonholing those players into a specific position and wouldn’t have any qualms about playing two of them at a time.
“I don’t look at them as point guards,” Rivers said (Twitter link via Nehm). “I think they all can play all the positions. I mean, we played Ryan and Cole together today. So, it doesn’t matter, they’re guards. Our offense is…not a point guard orientated offense.”
Rivers mentioned earlier in the week that he anticipates Porter will be a starter this fall.
Here’s more on the Bucks:
- Star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, who remained in Greece this week dealing with a case of COVID-19, is set to join the Bucks as their training camp shifts from Milwaukee to Miami, writes Ben Steele of The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “He’ll be flying in either tonight or in the morning,” Rivers said on Thursday ahead of the team’s flight to Florida. The Bucks’ preseason schedule will tip off on Monday with a matchup vs. the Heat in Miami, so the club will be in town for a few days before that game.
- Anthony was held out of the contact portion of Thursday’s practice as a precautionary measure due to an unspecified health issue, tweets Nehm. Rivers didn’t provide any details on what was wrong with the veteran guard.
- One of just a handful of Bucks players who didn’t sign a new contract this offseason, A.J. Green is unfazed by not having a contract extension in place yet, as Jim Owczarski of The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relays. “It’s gonna happen exactly how it should,” said Green, who is on an expiring deal. “If I worry about it, what’s that gonna do for me? I’m not in control of it. I can only do what I can now. So, I just gotta trust that whatever is gonna happen is gonna happen regardless. It’s out of my hands.”
- After saying on media day that he’s happy to be “in a city now that wants to celebrate me,” new Bucks center Myles Turner sought to clarify that the remark wasn’t intended as a shot at Indianapolis or Pacers fans. “This quote has NOTHING to do with Indy fans and EVERYTHING to do with my free agency experience,” Turner tweeted.
Wizards Sign Leaky Black, Waive Jonathan Pierre
The Wizards have made a minor change to their training camp roster, announcing today (via Twitter) that they’ve signed free agent forward Leaky Black to an Exhibit 10 contract and waived camp invitee Jonathan Pierre.
Black, who went undrafted out of North Carolina in 2023, spent his rookie season on a two-way contract with the Hornets, then played last season for the Capital City Go-Go, Washington’s G League affiliate. He made 26 NBA appearances for Charlotte in 2023/24, averaging 2.7 points and 1.8 rebounds in 10.9 minutes per game.
In 44 games last season for the Go-Go, Black averaged 7.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.2 steals in 26.7 minutes per contest. Known more for his play on the other end of the court, the 6’6″ forward made the ACC’s All-Defensive team twice as a Tar Heel, in both 2022 and 2023.
In all likelihood, Black will be waived at some point before opening night and will end up rejoining the Go-Go as a returning-rights player. His Exhibit 10 deal will make him eligible for a bonus worth up to $85,300 on top of his G League salary if he spends at least 60 days with the Wizards’ affiliate.
Pierre, who will qualify as an affiliate player, will also likely land with Capital City this fall in order to earn his own $85,300 Exhibit 10 bonus.
Washington still has a full 21-man preseason roster.
Pistons Notes: Ivey, Cunningham, Thompson, LeVert, Roster
Pistons guard Jaden Ivey is fully healthy after being limited to 30 games last season due to a fractured left fibula, according to Omari Sankofa II of The Detroit Free Press (subscriber link). Ivey described his rehab as an arduous process.
“The journey has been definitely a grind to get back, to get healed, to get stronger,” Ivey said. “It’s definitely been a grind. I’m definitely thankful to be in this position right now, be able to be back healthy and to do what I’ve been working for my whole life, to be able to play this game. I’m healed now and looking forward to this next season.”
Head of basketball operations Trajan Langdon says the team is glad to have Ivey back, though he acknowledged there might be some rough periods as the former Purdue star gets accustomed to playing again. Ivey will be eligible for a rookie scale extension through October 20.
“There’s no restrictions on him,” Langdon said. “He’s looking really good, obviously. It will take him some time, he hasn’t played five-on-five NBA basketball in 10 months. By the time he gets going with that I think there’s going to be a rhythm component and even a game conditioning component that he’ll have to get up to speed. We look forward to having him back and he’s going to be a huge part of this team.”
Here’s more on the Pistons:
- All-Star guard Cade Cunningham has high expectations for the Pistons after they made the playoffs last season, per Hunter Patterson of The Athletic. “We all want a championship out of this, you know? (Last season) was a great stepping stone for that,” Cunningham said. “We have no chance of going to get a championship without a year like last year. But there are more steps to be taken after that. I think our minds are just onto the next step, honestly. We’re not into celebrating last year anymore.”
- Several players mentioned Ausar Thompson as a player who made noteworthy strides this offseason, Patterson adds. Thompson, who missed the start of last season with a blood clot issue, was fully healthy over the summer appears to have bulked up. “Being healthy for him was huge,” head coach J.B. Bickerstaff said. “Being able to work on his skill set, work on his craft, play more basketball over the summer, more one-on-one and those types of things were huge for him. … Coming into camp in just better shape will allow him to let his talents run. Conditioning is the ultimate cheat code. If you can play at your highest level longer than your opponent can, it’s going to give you an advantage. If Ausar can play at his highest level with his freak-of-nature abilities that come along with him, just imagine what he will be capable of.”
- Bickerstaff was happy to reunite with veteran wing Caris LeVert, Sankofa writes in another subscriber-only story. Bickerstaff coached LeVert, who signed a two-year deal with Detroit in free agency, while the two were members of the Cavaliers. “His versatility is going to be key,” Bickerstaff said. “There’s so many different things you can do with him. … He can initiate offense and he’s really good as a second-side attacker. We’re going to use his versatility, but he can do so many different things and not just for himself. Having spent so much time with him, he’s a really good play-maker and passer. So he can help his teammates, also.”
- As Keith Langlois of Pistons.com writes, Detroit lost some volume three-point shooters from last season’s roster, which ranked just 22nd in the league in three-point attempts. Bickerstaff is fine with shooting fewer threes if it means the team is benefiting in other areas. He also praised the group’s positional versatility. “We don’t need to have guys that are just one position,” Bickerstaff said. “We feel we have a bunch of guys that can play position-less basketball and it helps their skill set out. So what we’ll do is we’ll put the combinations that we see that work best for us. We’re not worried about having a backup one or a backup two. We’re trying to get talent on the floor.”