Bennett Stirtz

BYU’s NCAA tournament run ended early, with the West’s No. 6 seed knocked off by No. 11 Texas on Thursday. However, forward AJ Dybantsa did little to hurt his draft stock in the process, putting up 35 of his team’s 71 points in the losing effort.

According to Jake Fischer of The Stein Line (Substack link), Dybantsa may have entered this week as the frontrunner to be the No. 1 overall pick in June due to some concerns related to Kansas guard Darryn Peterson‘s health over the course of his freshman year with the Jayhawks and skepticism about whether Cameron Boozer‘s “athletic profile” will limit his ceiling at the NBA level.

Fischer clarifies that no one expects any sort of draft-night fall for Peterson or Boozer, who have widely been considered top-three prospects alongside Dybantsa for months. In fact, he says some rival teams believe Boozer would be the Pacers‘ top choice if they got the No. 1 pick due to his potential fit with their current personnel.

However, Fischer also suggests that there’s been momentum toward UNC’s Caleb Wilson joining that top tier of prospects, despite the fact that hand and thumb injuries prematurely ended the forward’s season. Wilson has drawn comparisons to players like Chris Bosh and Evan Mobley, and there’s no sense that his thumb surgery will impact his standing as a top-five lock, Fischer adds.

“I don’t think anyone is taking Wilson No. 1 overall,” one NBA general manager said. “But I think every team is going to have him above one of those other three guys.”

Here’s more from Fischer on the 2026 NBA draft:

• One Eastern Conference scout recently predicted that there might be “an entire lottery of freshmen” this June, according to Fischer, who adds that the draft class is considered especially heavy on backcourt talent. Some scouts view it as the strongest group of guards since 2018, when Luka Doncic, Trae Young, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander entered the league, while one executive compared it to a 2008 class that was headlined by Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook, Fischer writes.
• Illustrating the depth of the 2026 draft, Fischer notes that one veteran scout suggested that whichever team lands the No. 1 overall pick should seriously consider the idea of trading down to maximize the value of that selection. “There’s just too much opportunity to still get an All-Star caliber player and another future asset,” the scout said. According to Fischer, multiple executives have also expressed that there could be lottery-caliber prospects available in the 20s and a number of NBA-ready players available in the second round. “This might be a draft where more guys are getting guaranteed (NBA contracts) in the second round,” a Western Conference scout speculated.
• While the lottery will consist mostly of college freshmen, there are several “plug-and-play” upperclassmen who will appeal to teams later in the first round. Fischer identifies Iowa State forward Joshua Jefferson, Florida forward Thomas Haugh, Michigan center Aday Mara, Iowa guard Bennett Stirtz, and Texas wing Dailyn Swain as juniors and seniors frequently mentioned as intriguing targets in that range.
• Fischer also singles out Vanderbilt guard Tyler Tanner, Purdue guard Braden Smith, and Santa Clara forward Allen Graves as players who are “generating intrigue” among NBA evaluators, observing that Tanner and Graves in particular are analytics darlings.