Jalen Duren

After talking to agents and executives around the league, Jake Fischer of The Stein Line states in his latest Substack column (subscription required) that there will likely be few, if any, rookie scale extensions reached before Monday’s deadline that carry an average annual value larger than $25MM. Fischer adds that teams have become more cautious about handing out large deals because of the restrictions that accompany the first and second aprons.

He points to Hawks guard Dyson Daniels as someone who should be in good position to match the five-year, $150MM extensions that teammate Jalen Johnson and Orlando guard Jalen Suggs both received last offseason. However, sources tell Fischer that Atlanta’s front office is willing to let Daniels test restricted free agency next year if he won’t sign on the team’s terms.

Fischer notes that Daniels’ agent, Daniel Moldovan, also represents Josh Giddey, who just went through a months-long standoff with the Bulls in restricted free agency. Fischer adds that Daniels would likely be entering a more robust market for restricted free agents than the one that Giddey faced.

Fischer offers more information on players eligible for rookie scale extensions:

• Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren haven’t made much progress in their extension talks with the Pistons, sources tell Fischer. He suggests that management might be extra cautious with Ivey following arthroscopic surgery on his right knee this week. Ivey’s camp expects an active market if he does hit free agency, even though he’s also coming off a fractured left tibia that cost him most of last season. Sources describe negotiations with Duren as “tepid” so far, per Fischer, who adds that his representatives are asking for a new deal worth much more than $30MM in AAV and are also optimistic about his prospects on the open market.
• The Rockets are hoping to sign Tari Eason to an extension that’s “significantly lower” than the five-year, $122MM deal that Jabari Smith Jr. accepted this summer, according to Fischer. The outcome of the Eason negotiations will affect what Houston is willing to give Kevin Durant in his extension talks, Fischer adds. With Amen Thompson expected to receive a max extension next offseason, Houston is being careful about not overloading its salary commitments. Fischer talked to capologists who said they would recommend limiting any Durant offers to $80MM over two years. As Fischer notes, it’s not certain that Durant would remain with the Rockets at that number.
• It seems unlikely that Christian Braun will reach an extension agreement with the Nuggets, Fischer states. Sources tell him that Denver is already sending signals that it doesn’t want to become a taxpaying team next season, while Braun and his camp are hoping for a deal at $25MM in average annual value. The Nuggets are also holding extension talks with Peyton Watson, but Fischer suggests a new deal with him may not happen unless they can’t agree to terms with Braun.
• Fischer views Trail Blazers guard Shaedon Sharpe as the most likely remaining candidate to hammer out an extension before the deadline. Rival teams that Fischer contacted expect Portland to give Sharpe something in the neighborhood of $100MM over four years.
• Suns center Mark Williams, Jazz center Walker Kessler and Pacers wing Bennedict Mathurin all appear headed for restricted free agency, Fischer states. Of the three, Fischer points to Mathurin as the most likely to change teams because of Indiana’s reluctance to add more long-term salary.