Hollinger On Gay, Prince, Speights, Analytics
Prior to the seventh annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston, John Schumann of NBA.com exchanged a few emails with Grizzlies vice president of basketball operations John Hollinger. The former ESPN scribe touched on a number of topics concerning the club and his new gig. Here are some of the highlights..
How does your approach to analytics as a team executive differ from your approach as a writer?
The biggest change is that I’m looking at everything through this more narrow lens of “how does this impact the Memphis Grizzlies?” That means I’m probably looking at certain players much more closely and all but ignoring some national stories that I’d be discussing nearly every day in my former gig (like one that rhymes with “Spakers,” for instance), and it means I’m paying a lot more attention to non-NBA stuff (college, Europe, etc.) because that’s the pipeline for incoming players. As a writer I had the luxury of waiting until those guys got to the league if I so chose.
How has your team changed with the trades you made?
Rudy [Gay] was a very good player but Tayshaun [Prince]’s ability to pass and hit catch-and-shoot jumpers hopefully replaces some of the athleticism and shot-creating ability we gave up in this deal. Defensively we probably get even better, because we still have that 6-9 small forward who can guard, but now we also have an athletic big who plays above the rim in Ed, which is something we really didn’t have before. And finally, we’re pretty deep in the front line now, because we also have bigs like Jon Leuer and Dexter Pittman waiting in the wings from our other deals.
Can you explain the reasoning behind the Marreese Speights trade?
One thing I think a lot of people don’t understand is that we still were facing a potential luxury tax hit even with the [Gay trade], because of certain incentive deals in our player contracts. So even though all those little charts on the Web had us $4MM and change into the tax, in reality our potential liability was about $6MM. Because of that, it was inevitable that another deal also had to be made in addition to a Rudy deal.
Also, there was a fairly important chess element to this — we were able to improve our leverage in the second deal by being under the tax, because beforehand people were demanding a premium for all the money they’d be saving us. The basketball offers for Rudy got better once we’d done this. As for the particular deal we chose, it was clear given the frontcourt depth we had that moving off that Speights deal for both this year and next was the way to achieve the greatest savings at the least basketball cost…Obviously this isn’t the kind of move you’d prefer to make, but we came into a situation where our hands were really tied financially, and now we have options again.
While I have the floor, I’ll also point out two other things: First, that the Speights trade exception was parlayed into an even larger exception in the Rudy deal, because we took Austin Daye into it, so we now have a $7.5MM chip that could prove valuable in the offseason. And second, that our breathing room allowed us to take in Dexter Pittman and a second-round pick at the trade deadline.
Wolves May Retain David Kahn
Despite mounting criticism surrounding his tenure as GM, Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor says that David Kahn could "absolutely" return in 2013/14, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN. Taylor will evaluate Kahn's performance and decide his future after the season.
Recently, Sid Hartman of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune wrote that there indications that former coach Flip Saunders could be in line for the job. Taylor confirmed that two did in fact meet, but said that Saunders was representing a group interested in buying the team (Twitter link). There are now a couple of new parties interested in purchasing the T'Wolves, but Taylor says that there's "no timetable" for a sale, Wolfson tweets.
Brooks Clears Waivers, Wants To Join Rockets
Former Kings guard Aaron Brooks has cleared waivers and sources tell Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter) that he will work to finalize a deal with the Rockets. The Kings bought the veteran out of his contract on March 1st.
Because he was bought out of his contract prior to Friday night's deadline, Brooks will be eligible to play in the postseason for whichever team he signs with. The Rockets are currently sitting in the eighth spot at 33-28 with the Lakers 2.5 games behind them.
The Rockets drafted Brooks 26th overall in 2007 and traded him to the Suns in 2011 for Goran Dragic and a first-round pick. The guard had his best NBA season with Houston in 2009/10, averaging 19.6 PPG and 5.3 RPG while shooting 39.8% from the outside.
Nuggets Expected To Target Korver In Offseason
The Nuggets stood pat at this year's trade deadline, electing to move forward with their current roster. However, the team figures to try to add a shooter this summer, and Kyle Korver is expected to be one of Denver's top targets, according to Christopher Dempsey of the Denver Post.
Dempsey compares the Nuggets' interest in Korver to the club's interest in Andre Iguodala a year ago. Although Denver was interested in Iguodala at last season's trade deadline, it wasn't until August that the Nuggets eventually worked out a deal to acquire the veteran forward.
In Korver's case, a trade won't be required, since the sharpshooter is in the final year of his contract with the Hawks. It's not clear what sort of salary the 31-year-old will command, but he's earning mid-level money ($5MM) this season, in what has been one of the best years of his career. Korver is hitting a career-high 2.8 three-pointers per game at a league-leading 46.2% rate, and has posted a career-high 14.6 PER.
Although it's too early to predict where Korver will land this summer, he indicated last week that he'd be open to signing with the Jazz, so it sounds as if he'll consider smaller-market teams as well as big-market contenders.
Warriors Not Using Open Roster Spots For Now
Since February's trade deadline, we've seen teams like the Knicks, Heat, and Celtics move to add players on 10-day contracts or multiyear deals, filling their open roster spots. After trading Jeremy Tyler and Charles Jenkins on deadline day, the Warriors are another team with a pair of open roster spots, but according to Marcus Thompson of the Bay Area News Group, the Warriors are in no rush to add any more bodies.
Thompson reports that Friday's buyout deadline didn't yield the sort of players the Warriors had been anticipating. Had players like DeJuan Blair or Timofey Mozgov been bought out, Golden State would have been interested, but none of the current free agents or players on waivers strongly appeal to the team.
According to Thompson, if the Warriors were to add another player to the roster this season, the move would require the approval of coach Mark Jackson. Since Jackson is big on chemistry and doesn't necessarily want to take away minutes from his current players, it may not make sense for the club to bring in a player simply to have him sit on the bench.
As I detailed last week, the Warriors are also one of a handful of teams sitting just below the tax line. Based on reported salaries, Golden State would still probably have room to bring in a pair of players on pro-rated minimum contracts, but there may be players on the roster with incentives we don't know about, inching the Warriors close to the tax line. In that case, it wouldn't make sense for the club to add more salary and risk going into the tax.
D-League Moves: Jones, Lamb, Liggins, Acy
Here are today's D-League assignments and recalls, with any additional transactions added to the top of the page throughout the day:
- Perry Jones, Jeremy Lamb, and DeAndre Liggins have been recalled from the Tulsa 66ers by the Thunder, the team announced today in a press release. The OKC trio was assigned to the D-League last Thursday, and helped lead the 66ers to a pair of wins during the brief assignment.
- The Raptors have re-assigned Quincy Acy to the D-League, the team announced today in a press release. Acy, a second-round pick in 2012, had a brief stint with the Bakersfield Jam back in December, during which he averaged 12.7 PPG and 4.7 RPG. The energetic forward has seen limited playing time in 20 games with the Raptors this season.
Max Contract Scenarios For 2013 Free Agents
Two players in this summer's free agent class, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard, are considered locks to earn maximum-salary contracts. Two other free-agents-to-be, Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings, aren't necessarily viewed as maximum-caliber players, but still may receive max offers from a desperate team. Meanwhile, Andrew Bynum is no longer a certainty for a max deal due to health concerns, though it's not out of the question that a club rolls the dice on him.
While these five players will all be in the "max-contract" discussion this summer, CBA rules dictate that if all five guys were to receive maximum offers, none of them would be earning the same amount. A specific player's maximum salary is determined by a number of factors, including service time, previous salary, and the league's basketball related income.
In determining exactly what maximum-salary offers for these five players would look like, let's first consider service time. The NBA's maximum salary is divided into three groups when it comes to service time — players with 1-6 years of experience are eligible for a smaller max than players with 7-9 years of experience, who in turn are eligible for less than veterans that have played 10 years or more. Of our five marquee free-agents-to-be, only Jennings has fewer than seven years' experience. Howard, Paul, Bynum, and Smith were all members of either the 2004 or 2005 draft class, meaning they each fall into that 7-9 range.
As I outlined last July, the maximum salary for players with 7-9 years of experience in 2012/13 was $16,402,500. However, Howard, Paul, and Bynum all earned salaries higher than that amount this season. How? Well, long-term contracts allow players to exceed the maximum in future seasons as long as the first year of the contract adheres to the max. Howard, Paul, and Bynum are all in the final year of long-term deals, so they're all earning well above the max by now.
Because those three players are already earning more than the max, CBA rules ensure that they won't have to take a pay cut next season — their respective maximum salaries will be worth 105% of this season's salary. For instance, Howard is earning $19,536,360 this season. 105% of that amount is $20,513,178, which will be the maximum salary he can earn for 2013/14.
Because they kept Howard through the trade deadline, the Lakers retain D12's Bird Rights, meaning they're allowed to offer him up to five years, with 7.5% raises. The same goes for the Clippers and Paul, as well as the Sixers and Bynum. As such, here's what maximum offers for these three guys would look like:
Rival teams with the necessary cap space or the ability to sign-and-trade would be able to offer Howard, Paul, and Bynum contracts for up to four years, with only 4.5% raises. Here's what those offers would look like:
As the charts show, the drop-off in guaranteed money from a max five-year deal is signficant. I'm skeptical Bynum will receive a max offer this summer, but let's consider Howard's and Paul's scenarios. Signing with a team besides the Lakers or Clippers, respectively, would take $30MM+ in guaranteed money off the table for Howard, and $27MM+ for Paul. If Howard and Paul are still performing at an elite level in 2017, they'll make up a good chunk of that salary in the 2017/18 year of their next contracts. Still, it's hard to guarantee elite production and good health that far in advance, so there'd certainly be an element of risk if either player decides to change teams.
Now, let's circle back to Smith. Unlike the three players we've already covered, Smith, at $13.2MM, wasn't earning more than the max this season. That means the max salary for a player with 7-9 years of experience will apply to him next season. Calculating Smith's contract scenarios isn't as easy as starting with this year's $16,402,500 maximum though, since that figure will increase next season, based on the NBA's projected BRI. We won't know exactly what the new max will be until July, but for argument's sake, let's assume it increases by the same rate as it did last July — about 5.77%. That would put Smith's maximum first-year salary for 2013/14 at $17,350,125. Here's what a max offer from the Hawks and from another team would look like for Smith:
Finally, we arrive at Jennings, whose earning potential is significantly less than our other four marquee free agents, simply based on his service time. The Bucks guard will be finishing up his fourth season this year, meaning he's only eligible for what would have been a $13,668,750 salary in 2012/13 — that's the amount that players like Eric Gordon and Roy Hibbert are earning in the first year of the max contracts they signed last offseason. For Jennings, that maximum figures to increase a little for '13/14. As we did with Smith's 7-9 year max, let's assume that the 1-6 year max will increase at the same rate it did last summer, about 5.77%. That would mean Jennings' first-year max for '13/14 would be $14,458,437. Here's what his max scenarios would look like:
Jennings certainly won't receive that five-year maximum offer from the Bucks — James Harden and Blake Griffin were the only players prior to this season that received that true max. Griffin will actually earn even more than my estimated $83MM, since starting two All-Star games during his rookie contract made him eligible for a higher max, but Harden's deal with the Rockets will be in the ballpark of that $83MM figure. For Jennings, his best chances of landing a maximum offer involve signing an offer sheet with a rival team, forcing the Bucks to decide whether or not to match. In that case, he could sign for up to four years, with 4.5% raises, as detailed above in the right-hand column.
I don't expect all five of these marquee free agents to sign maximum-salary contracts this summer, but it only takes one team willing to go all-in to quickly change the free agent landscape. Given how many clubs are expected to have significant cap space in July, it certainly wouldn't be a shock if three or four of these players received max offers. Still, not all max contracts are created equal, so be sure to consider these figures as free agent chatter heats up in the coming months.
Aldridge’s Latest: Kings Sale, NBPA, Bynum, Bell
David Aldridge's latest Morning Tip column at NBA.com is packed full with updates on a few notable stories from around the league. Here's Aldridge's latest on the Kings' sale, the NBPA, Andrew Bynum, and more:
- Owners don't like telling other owners to whom they should sell their teams, so the final decision on the Kings sale still may come down to the Maloofs, rather than the league's finance or relocation committees, a source tells Aldridge.
- A source involved in the process tells Aldridge that for the Maloofs to consider moving away from the Seattle group in favor of the Sacramento group, there'd have to be an extremely good (and extremely well-articulated) reason.
- Aldridge believes that David Stern genuinely wants to give Sacramento a legitimate shot to make its case at April's Board of Governors meetings, so no decision will be made before then.
- Sacramento's bid for the Kings was deliberately arranged so that Mark Mastrov would be the one officially buying the team, with Ron Burkle heading the charge for the new arena, given the Maloofs' history of antipathy toward Burkle.
- Star players like LeBron James have pledged to take a more active role in staying apprised of union affairs and issues, according to Aldridge. The NBPA executive committee, which includes Andre Iguodala, also includes a few more big names this time around. "In the past, team reps have always been 10th, 11th guys going to the meetings," Iguodala said. "Eighth, ninth. 10th, 11th guys were going to the meetings, and we weren't as involved as we should have been. But I think we're stepping it up."
- The Sixers remain "intoxicated" by Bynum's potential, a source tells Aldridge, suggesting that the team is still contemplating re-signing him. When we asked yesterday whether Philadelphia ought to re-sign Bynum, nearly 70% of you said no.
- Mike D'Antoni tried to talk the Lakers into pursuing buyout candidate Raja Bell before last Friday's deadline, but the front office didn't feel like Bell was worth adding to the team's salary and tax bill.
International Notes: Kapono, Cook, Mensah-Bonsu
While it's been a fairly quiet day in the NBA so far, a few familiar names are making headlines internationally. Here are the latest notes from around the globe:
- Jason Kapono is not expected to finish the season with Greek team Panathinaikos, according to a report from Lefteris Moutis of EuroHoops.net. Kapono joined the club in December, but has been disappointed by his lack of playing time and will likely ask to be let go, according to Moutis.
- Brian Cook has reached an agreement to sign with Piratas de Quebradillas of Puerto Rico, agent Greg Nunn tells Jorge Sierra of HoopsHype. Cook, who played for the Clippers and Wizards a year ago, will have an NBA out, giving him the option of returning stateside before season's end if an opportunity arises.
- Cajasol Sevilla has signed former NBA veteran Pops Mensah-Bonsu, the Spanish club announced today on its website (English link via Sportando). The 29-year-old played with five NBA teams in parts of four seasons, last appearing in seven games for the Hornets in 2010/11.
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