Offseason Outlook: Chicago Bulls
Guaranteed Contracts
- Derrick Rose ($17,632,688)
- Carlos Boozer ($15,300,000)
- Luol Deng ($14,215,000)
- Joakim Noah ($11,100,000)
- Taj Gibson ($7,550,000)
- Kirk Hinrich ($4,059,000)
- Jimmy Butler ($1,112,880)
- Marquis Teague ($1,074,720)
Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Contracts
- Richard Hamilton ($5,000,000; guaranteed for $1,000,000)1
- Malcolm Thomas ($884,293)2
Free Agents / Cap Holds
- Marco Belinelli ($2,348,400)
- No. 20 pick ($1,174,200)
- (Nikola Mirotic - $1,038,900)3
- Daequan Cook ($884,293)
- Nazr Mohammed ($884,293)
- Vladimir Radmanovic ($884,293)
- Nate Robinson ($884,293)
- (Brian Scalabrine – $884,293)4
Draft Picks
- 1st Round (20th overall)
- 2nd Round (49th overall)
Cap Outlook
- Guaranteed Salary: $73,044,288
- Options: $0
- Non-Guaranteed Salary: $4,884,293
- Cap Holds: $8,982,965
- Total: $86,911,546
Considering Derrick Rose never played a single game, the season went about as well as could be expected for the Bulls. Even if Rose had made it back from his injury, Chicago may not have done better than winning a playoff series and putting a scare in the Heat, considering the turnover they suffered on the bench coming into 2012/13. Coach Tom Thibodeau deserves credit for developing an overachieving supporting cast, many of whom wound up starting and playing prominent roles in the playoffs while Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich joined Rose on the bench with injuries.
Presumably, Rose will return healthy for the start of next season, and the central question for John Paxson, the team's executive VP of basketball operations, and GM Gar Forman is whether that's enough to give Chicago a shot at the championship. The Bulls entered the playoffs as the top seed the last two seasons in which Rose played, but they've won a total of just two playoff series with Rose in uniform. Part of the reason that's the case is the team's inability to get past the Heat, and that obstacle could be gone after next season, when LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh can all opt out of their contracts. They could also all choose to stay with the Heat, or one or more of them could go elsewhere and form another superteam that erects another barrier for the Bulls.
LeBron and company passed on Chicago in the summer of 2010, and there's no pressing reason to suspect they wouldn't do so again, making the specter of a superteam in Chicago far-fetched. In 2010, the Bulls instead went with Carlos Boozer, who has drawn criticism ever since. Boozer has never been the most consistent of producers, and some of his numbers suggest this season was another dip on his personal rollercoaster. He recorded career lows in shooting percentage (.477) and PER (17.1), even as his scoring and rebounding went up from last year. His numbers held steady in the playoffs, unlike his first two postseason runs with the Bulls, and that may be enough to spare him from becoming an amnesty victim.
The Bulls owe him $32.1MM over the next two seasons, making him the highest paid player on their roster aside from Rose. His presence as a playoff force will be critical to the team's ability to get past Miami or other elite teams, and if Paxson, Forman and company feel they can't get that sort of performance from him, there's little reason to keep him around. His amnesty represents the easiest way for the Bulls to avoid paying the tax next season after having done so for the first time in franchise history this year.
Still, if the Bulls are confident Boozer can produce in the postseason, they're probably better off keeping him, since amnestying him wouldn't create enough cap room to replace him with a player who's likely to do any better. The Bulls reportedly reached out to the Raptors and others about trading Boozer before the deadline this past season, but found no takers. A trade could be the most viable option the team has of either upgrading its roster, avoiding the tax, or both.
Writers have batted around a trade idea that would send Kevin Love to the Bulls in exchange for Boozer, Jimmy Butler, former first-round pick Nikola Mirotic and a future first-round pick that the Bobcats owe Chicago. That one seems a non-starter now that new Wolves exec Flip Saunders has worked to strengthen the team's relationship with Love, and it doesn't sound like a proposal the teams ever considered anyway.
The Bulls played well in the postseason without Deng, leading to speculation that he could be the centerpiece of a deal this summer. The Cavaliers and Pistons have apparently expressed interest in Deng already, but it's unclear what it would take to get a deal done. The Bulls would probably want to reduce their payroll, and both Cleveland and Detroit will have the cap room to facilitate an uneven exchange of salaries. I'd be surprised if Chicago gave up Butler, who emerged as a force on the perimeter this season and has two more years left on his rookie deal. Mirotic is another young, cheap asset, even if it's unclear when he'll make the move to the NBA.
Butler's emergence helps make parting ways with Richard Hamilton an easy choice. The Bulls are expected to waive the 35-year-old former All-Star by July 10th, allowing them to save $4MM on his cap hit for next season. Injuries held Hamilton back from becoming the reliable starting two-guard the team signed him to be, but even when he was healthy and the Bulls were in need of help in the postseason, Thibodeau rarely called on him.
With Rose and Hamilton out of the picture and Butler pressed into duty at small forward in place of Deng, the Bulls rode with Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli as their starting backcourt in the playoffs. Both exceeded expectations, particularly Robinson, who was a minimum-salary signee. The Bulls have Non-Bird rights on both, allowing them to go no more than 120% over their salaries from this past season to re-sign them, unless Chicago dips into its mid-level exception. As a team in line to pay the tax, the Bulls will only have the $3.183 taxpayer's mid-level, which might be enough for one of them, but not both. Chicago has Non-Bird rights on backup center Nazr Mohammed, too, but he's unlikely to return unless he agrees to another minimum-salary deal.
The Bulls would have to make a drastic move to significantly improve their roster this summer. Forman identified a return to health as the team's primary offseason goal, and the return of Rose should vault the Bulls into some level of title contention. If they keep the core of the team together, they won't enter next season as favorites, but they'll probably have a chance. Unless they get a trade offer they can't bear to turn down, the Bulls seem like they'll give this group one more try and gauge a changing NBA landscape next summer.
Cap footnotes
- Hamilton's contract becomes fully guaranteed if he's not waived on or before July 10th.
- Thomas' contract becomes guaranteed for $250,000 if he's not waived on or before July 24th, and for $500,000 if he's not waived on or before December 9th.
- The cap hold for Mirotic, the 23rd pick in the 2011 draft, is equal to 100% of the rookie scale amount for the 23rd pick in this year's draft.
- No, Scalabrine isn't on the Bulls' payroll, and he wasn't last season, either. He's still listed as a cap hold because Chicago has yet to renounce his rights after he played on a minimum-salary deal in 2011/12. The Bulls were over the cap last summer, and it's likely they'll remain so this offseason. Unless they intend to dip below the cap line and use their space, there will be no reason to renounce their rights to Scalabrine, or any of their free agents who go unsigned this summer.
Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.
Atlantic Rumors: Amare, Williams, Celtics, Raptors
Amare Stoudemire will be working with Hakeem Olajuwon for a second consecutive summer, and despite his lack of contribution this past season, the Knicks still have high regard for their most lavishly paid player, as Jared Zwerling of ESPNNewYork.com passes along. GM Glen Grunwald called Stoudemire "a heck of a player."
"We hope he'll be able to play significant minutes for us next year," Grunwald said. "How much that will be, we don't know at this time. But when he came and played for us … he was, as (coach Mike Woodson) said, a big factor in those games."
While we wait to see how Stoudemire bounces back next year, here's the latest from around the Atlantic Division:
- Terrence Williams, whose contract for next season is non-guaranteed, addressed reporters today after working out at the Celtics facility. He said that, in spite of his recent legal troubles, Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers still view him as part of the team's future, as Chris Forsberg of ESPNBoston.com notes.
- The Celtics have worked out a dozen players in the past two days, as A. Sherrod Blakely of CSNNE.com and Gary Washburn of the Boston Globe round up (Twitter links). On Friday the team saw Colton Iverson, Erick Green, Jeff Withey, Peyton Siva, Vander Blue and Ricky Ledo, and today the C's looked at Pierre Jackson, Gregory Echenique, Myck Kabongo, Shane Larkin, Phil Pressey and Steven Adams.
- Masai Ujiri appears destined to become the next GM of the Raptors, and Ryan Wolstat of the Toronto Sun hears Ujiri and Phil Jackson are the only two candidates the team has aggressively pursued so far (All Twitter links). The Raptors have been linked to Kevin Pritchard and Troy Weaver as well, but they seem to have a strong preference for Ujiri.
- Ben Goldberg-Morse of the Philadelphia Inquirer lays out how new Sixers GM Sam Hinkie's emphasis on analytics could improve the production of Jrue Holiday, who received a long-term extension last summer, and Evan Turner, who's up for one this offseason.
Heat Notes: LeBron, Howard, Wade, Bosh
Earlier today, we rounded up the latest links out of Indiana and in the interest of equal time we'll do the same for Miami..
- Paul George and the up-and-coming Pacers have earned the respect of LeBron James, writes Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports.
- Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel wonders if the Cavs winning the 2013 lottery helps to improve the club's chances of landing James in the summer of 2014. While Cleveland figures to be a serious threat if James exercises his ETO, Winderman notes that the Heat will have one less competitor if Dwight Howard leaves the Lakers this summer. Without Howard, James likely wouldn't consider L.A. next year.
- Sam Amico of FOX Sports (via Twitter) agrees with David Stern's assessment of Miami as a middle market since no one viewed them as a big market until the formation of the big three. Meanwhile, Amico argues that market size is largely irrelevant in today's world given the nature of television and social media (link).
- In today's mailbag, Winderman writes that LeBron is being forced to put too much on his shoulders offensively with Dwyane Wade injured and Chris Bosh struggling.
Pacers Notes: Vogel, Bird, Hill, George
If you were out and about last night and nowhere near a TV, then you missed out on one heck of a game in Miami as the Pacers topped the Heat, 97-93. Roy Hibbert, who was noticeably absent from the final play of Game 1, had one of the best games of his career with 29 points and ten rebounds. George Hill had 18 points, including four clutch free throws down the stretch. Paul George, meanwhile, gave the Pacers 22 points and, perhaps more importantly, great defense on LeBron James. With a balanced effort, Indiana managed to knot things up at 1-1 and grab the attention of the basketball world. "Take nothing away from their Big Three, what they have going," George told reporters, including Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com. "But we'll take a big five any day. That's what we have." Here's more on the Pacers..
- As George did, head coach Frank Vogel credited the club's depth and team effort for their Game 2 victory. "That's how Larry Bird put this team together. As a true team…It's balanced, and it's difficult to guard," the coach told reporters (courtesy of Scott Agness of Pacers.com, via Twitter).
- Last night's road win is proof that the Pacers are way ahead of schedule, writes HoopsWorld's Joel Brigham. Indiana has shown that they’re every bit as good and every bit as confident as Miami, which nobody saw coming in 2013.
- Marc Berman of the New York Post (on Twitter) jokes that David Stern deserves his last Finals to be Pacers vs. Grizzlies after the way he championed small market teams in the last CBA.
Pacific Notes: Warriors, Howard, Malone, Kings
Let's take a trip out to the West Coast for the latest out of the Pacific Division..
- The Warriors have a dilemma on their hands when it comes to whether they should pursue Dwight Howard this summer, writes Marcus Thompson II of the Los Angeles Daily News. While Howard reportedly likes Golden State, they'd have to move mountains to make that acquisition happen. For starters, the Warriors don't have the cap room to sign DH and would have to drastically weaken their supporting cast in a sign-and-trade. Because Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak would be holding the cards, he would demand either David Lee or Andrew Bogut from Golden State.
- Vivek Ranadive, former Warriors minority owner and the next owner of the Kings, has put Golden State assistant Mike Malone on his list head coaching candidates, a source told Ric Bucher of 95.7 The Game (via Sulia).
- Clippers guard Chris Paul had a good experience with his coaching staff in New Orleans, where Malone was the lead assistant, writes Ramona Shelburne of ESPNLosAngeles.com. Hornets head coach Monty Williams is happy to see his former assistant talked about as a top candidate for multiple teams and says it's about time. "You don't know what it takes to get a job. It's not just about basketball all the time. But I just hope, I hope that he gets a job soon," Williams said. "I know he really wants to do it, and I know he'll be a really good head coach. The tough part is knowing I gotta coach against him because I know he really knows his stuff."
Odds & Ends: Magic, Warriors, Dwight, Clippers
In the NFL, teams are frequently better off drafting for positional need rather than going for the best player, writes Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel, who argues that the opposite is true in the NBA. Thus, he implores the Magic to ignore fans who have football on the mind and draft the most talented player available with the No. 2 pick. He also notes that the Orlando summer league will add a title game this year, similar to the Las Vegas summer league, and sees Kevin Love's frequent chats with Flip Saunders as encouraging news for the Timberwolves. Here's more from around the Association as a long weekend commences:
- Dwight Howard's camp has "never given the slightest indication" that he wants to join the Warriors, tweets Tim Kawakami of the Bay Area News Group (Twitter link), echoing an earlier report from Ric Bucher of 95.7 The Game. Kawakami thinks the W's shouldn't pursue Howard as a result.
- Grantland's Bill Simmons points to evidence that suggests Howard is in decline, leading him to advise the Lakers to pass on him. Simmons encourages Howard to sign with the Rockets instead.
- DeAndre Jordan was surprised to see the Clippers and Vinny Del Negro part ways, as the center tells Mark Berman of Fox 26 Houston (Twitter link).
- As for Del Negro's replacement, HoopsWorld's Bill Ingram makes the case that Nate McMillan and Brian Shaw should top the list of coaching candidates for the Clippers.
- Point guard Pierre Jackson will work out on June 17th for the Trail Blazers, Chris Haynes of CSNNW.com reports, adding that strong workouts in New Jersey this past week have turned the Baylor senior into a potential first-round pick.
- Jerry Zgoda of the Star Tribune thinks the Wolves will shy away from guards with the No. 9 pick, as long as they don't trade the selection (Twitter link).
Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Hawks
Guaranteed Contracts
- Al Horford ($12,000,000)
- Lou Williams ($5,225,000)
- John Jenkins ($1,258,800)
- (Jeremy Tyler – $100,000)1
Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Contracts
- DeShawn Stevenson ($2,240,450)
- Mike Scott ($788,872)2
- Shelvin Mack ($884,293)
Free Agents / Cap Holds
- Josh Smith ($16,402,500)
- Devin Harris ($12,750,000)
- Kyle Korver ($9,500,000)
- Zaza Pachulia ($7,873,125)
- Johan Petro ($6,665,000)
- Jeff Teague ($6,082,692)3
- Dahntay Jones ($5,510,000)
- No. 17 pick ($1,348,200)
- No. 18 pick ($1,280,800)
- Ivan Johnson ($1,250,854)4
- Anthony Tolliver ($884,293)
- (Hilton Armstrong - $884,293)
- (Erick Dampier - $884,293)
- (Randolph Morris - $884,293)
- (Etan Thomas - $884,293)
Draft Picks
- 1st Round (17th overall)
- 1st Round (18th overall)
- 2nd Round (47th overall)
- 2nd Round (50th overall)
Cap Outlook
- Guaranteed Salary: $18,583,800
- Options: $0
- Non-Guaranteed Salary: $3,913,615
- Cap Holds: $73,084,636
- Total: $95,582,051
If there are any questions about Danny Ferry's abilities as a general manager, what he does this summer will probably answer them. The Hawks enter the offseason with as much of a clean slate as any team can have, with the exception of an expansion franchise. Twelve players on the team's 15-man roster are free agents, and even coach Larry Drew's contract is up. The Hawks have left the door open for Drew to return, but it looks like both sides have moved on, meaning Ferry will likely have to pick a new coach to lead a team that promises to look much different when the 2013/14 season tips off.
Atlanta will have enough room for a pair of max-contract free agents, even if they're Dwight Howard and Chris Paul, whose maximum salaries are the largest of any free agents on the market this summer. Not surprisingly, it appears Ferry's first order of business, after resolving the coaching situation, will be to see if both D12 and CP3 are interested in forming a super-team with the Hawks.
It would make the summer relatively easy for Ferry if he could land the two most sought-after free agents, but Paul, in particular, is a long shot. The Hawks will have plenty of competition for Howard even if the big man is interested in returning to his hometown, so it seems there's a strong chance that neither will wind up in Atlanta. That puts the onus on Ferry's abilities as a talent evaluator. Nobody else on the market is indisputably deserving of a max deal, and that includes Atlanta's in-house candidate, Josh Smith.
The 6'9" forward believes he's deserving of the max, and while Ferry and company like him enough to have offered him an extension prior to the season, it doesn't seem like they share Smith's view of his abilities. Other unrestricted free agent options include Andrew Bynum, Al Jefferson, David West and Paul Millsap. Andre Iguodala and Monta Ellis could be in play if they decline their options. Top restricted talent includes Brandon Jennings, Tyreke Evans, Nikola Pekovic, Tiago Splitter and the Hawks' own Jeff Teague.
It sounds like the Hawks are high on Teague, and, along with Smith, he'll be relatively easy to evaluate since he's been around the team for so long. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hawks sign Teague as soon as they have a definitive answer from Paul. After CP3 and Jennings, Teague is probably the best point guard on the market. He's probably not a maximum-salary player, so unless another team decides to overpay, Atlanta shouldn't have much trouble bringing him back into the fold.
The most talented player available, other than Howard and Paul, is probably Bynum. Of course, he comes with a significant caveat surrounding the health of his knees. If Ferry and the team's medical staff are confident that Bynum can regain and maintain full health, they might offer him the max, but that's a big "if." Really, unless one of the other free agents wows the Hawks, the team is likely better off pursuing smaller deals. That way, Ferry could fill out more of his empty roster space with players who command more than the minimum salary. Depending on how cheaply Ferry finds his talent, he may decide to leave enough cap space open for a run at a superstar from the better-stocked 2014 free agent class. Ferry could also decide to go with a bunch of one-year deals, a la the Mavericks this past season.
Whatever Ferry does, he'll be doing it with Al Horford in mind. Horford is owed $36MM through 2016. The contract is reasonable, if not a bargain, so Ferry could probably find a taker if he wants to trade Horford, but there's no indication he'll go that route. The former No. 3 overall pick is no superstar, but he is the building block around which this team will be constructed. His skills present Ferry with an intriguing choice — Horford can play power forward in a traditional lineup that bucks the small-ball trend, or center if Ferry wants to embrace the philosophy of an increasing number of teams. To a lesser extent, Lou Williams will factor into Ferry's thinking as well, since he's under contract through 2015.
John Jenkins, the 23rd overall pick from 2012, is set to return as well after spending the better part of his rookie season in the rotation. The Hawks have four draft picks this year, but I wouldn't expect Atlanta to keep all of them and bring four rookies aboard, unless Ferry decides to roll the team's cap space over to 2014.
The summer ahead is a defining one for the franchise, but it may only be the first step. Unless Howard or Paul arrives in Atlanta, there's no one who automatically propels the Hawks into the title picture for next season. After years as a mediocre playoff team that never got past the second round, the Hawks probably won't be content to pin their hopes on a long-term plan that doesn't include a superstar. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hawks enter next summer with plenty of cap space as well.
Cap footnotes
- When the Hawks waived Tyler in March, his contract included a $100K guarantee for 2013/14.
- Scott's contract becomes guaranteed for $100K next season if he's not waived on or before August 15th.
- The qualifying offer for Teague, the 19th pick in the 2009 draft, is $3,469,568, which is less than 250% of his salary in 2012/13. The cap hold for a former first-rounder who made less than the league average salary in the fourth season of his rookie-scale contract is always the greater of those two amounts in the summer after his rookie deal expires.
- The qualifying offer for Johnson, originally signed as an undrafted free agent, is $1,202,744, which is less than 130% of his salary in 2012/13. The cap hold for any Early Bird free agent who's not coming off a rookie-scale contract — deals that are reserved only for first-round draft picks — is always the greater of those two amounts.
Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.
Eastern Rumors: Prigioni, Mirotic, Nets, Sixers
The Eastern Conference Finals resume tonight after a stirring overtime contest in Game One. The Pacers will have to find a way to come up with a win in Miami after squandering a chance in the opener. If they don't, it will soon be open season for teams going after Indiana GM Kevin Pritchard and assistant coach Brian Shaw. While we wait to see how the postseason turns out, here's the latest on what will happen for a few Eastern teams and players in the future:
- In an interview with Jared Zwerling of ESPNNewYork.com, Pablo Prigioni expounds on his desire to return to the Knicks while acknowledging that there could be other options for him this summer. The point guard hints that his wife's desire to return to Europe wasn't as much of a factor in his decision as had been reported. "The most important things for me to decide where I want to play is I feel that I can play and help the team, to feel that the team really wants me," Prigioni said. "On this professional level, the place where you go is always nice, and the people always take care of you and your family."
- Nick Friedell of ESPNChicago.com looks to the summer ahead for the Bulls, as well as what could be a key negotiation in 2014 with former first-round pick Nikola Mirotic. The power forward from Montenegro appears to have the most leverage, Friedell writes, making it uncertain whether the Bulls will be able to sign him anytime soon.
- While the Nets appear to have interest in Grizzlies coach Lionel Hollins, they have yet to ask Memphis for permission to speak with him, USA Today's Sam Amick reports via Twitter.
- Tyler Tynes of the Philadelphia Inquirer tries his hand at a mock draft, predicting that the Sixers will come away with Cody Zeller at No. 11. Tynes adds that he wouldn't be surprised to see the team trade down instead.
Doc Rivers’ Return To Celtics Remains Uncertain
There's a 90% chance Doc Rivers will be coaching the Celtics again next season, but Rivers has yet to make his final decision, according to Steve Bulpett of the Boston Herald. If Rivers walks away from the final three years of his contract, it won't be with the intention of coaching another team. Even if he wanted to coach another team during the years remaining on his deal, the Celtics don't intend to let him, Bulpett hears.
The uncertainty began the night the Celtics were eliminated from the playoffs, when Rivers told reporters he'd have to think about it before deciding whether to come back next season. The coach tried to soften those remarks later the same evening, but has yet to make any definitive statement. Danny Ainge, the team's president of basketball operations, tried to do as much when he declared that Rivers would be back, but speculation remains.
Bulpett encourages Rivers to make his intentions known one way or the other, and said the team's pursuit of free agents will be hindered if he doesn't do it soon. I'd be surprised if this saga drags on into July, when free agents can sign with teams, though knowing who their coach will be would probably help the C's as they explore the possibility of trades leading up to the draft.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Jarrett Jack
It's not often that a player who makes the fewest starts since his rookie season and sees his scoring average decline nearly three points from the year before emerges as a hot commodity. Yet that's the spot Jarrett Jack finds himself in as he hits free agency. Jack was a superb sixth man this season for a Warriors team that won a playoff series, giving the eight-year veteran his first glimpse of the postseason beyond the opening round. He was frequently the No. 1 option on offense down the stretch, while the "greatest shooting backcourt in the history of the game," as Mark Jackson proclaimed Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, deferred to Jack's ability to create off the dribble.
Jack's scored 12.9 points per game this year, off from his career high of 15.6 in 2011/12 with New Orleans. Perhaps picking up some tips from the shooters around him, or benefitting from the same conditions that allowed them to thrive, Jack displayed some of his best touch from beyond the three-point arc, knocking in 40.4% of his attempts. He exceled as a distributor as well, averaging 5.6 assists against 2.0 turnovers per game. The Warriors gave up slightly more points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor, according to NBA.com, but his net effect was positive. The Warriors outscored opponents by 1.7 points per 100 possessions as a whole this season, and by 2.2 points with Jack in the game.
The 22nd overall pick in the 2005 draft, Jack made $5.4MM this season, the last of a four-year, $20MM contract. He reportedly had a chance to extend that deal with the W's this season, but shut down talks with the team in the middle of the season. With the exception of players on rookie-scale contracts, an extension usually isn't in a player's best interest. Jack would have been limited to a 7.5% raise on his salary from this season and three additional years. That would have been a total package worth $18.63MM, a sum of guaranteed money that most bench players don't see. It's not clear whether the Warriors were prepared to go that high in the extension. If they did so, Jack's $5.805MM salary for next season would likely put them in danger of going over the tax apron.
Without Jack, and assuming Carl Landry opts out of his deal while Andris Biedrins, Richard Jefferson and Brandon Rush all opt into theirs, the Warriors would be committed to $69,020,402 for 10 players next season. It's not certain exactly where the tax threshold, at $70.307MM this year, will be set for 2013/14, but in any case, the Warriors seem destined become a taxpayer unless they make a major move. Crossing the tax apron, which will be $4MM above wherever the tax line is set, would limit the team's flexbility, chopping about $2MM from its mid-level exception and placing a restriction on Golden State's ability to acquire players via sign-and-trade.
That likely makes Jack and Landry an either-or proposition for Golden State, as Tim Kawakami of the Bay Area News Group wrote last week. Kawakami figures the Warriors will choose Jack, and while that seems logical, I'm not sure they'll be able to afford him unless they either dump other salaries or are prepared to cross the tax apron. Even if he re-signed for his $5.4MM salary from last season, Jack would be tough to squeeze back onto the payroll. The 29-year-old was adamant last month that he'll prioritize a return to the Warriors next season, even if it means giving up the opportunity to start elsewhere.
Jack had an expanded role in the playoffs, becoming his team's second leading scorer, at 17.2 points per game, and drawing four starts in place of an injured David Lee. Even if he doesn't sign with a team that wants to make him a starter, he should at least be in line for a slight bump up in pay. He was one of the top sixth men in the league this year, and teams with cap space probably wouldn't hesitate to pay him $6MM a year. That may be too much for Jack to pass up, as much as he enjoyed his year as a Warrior.