Mobile Menu
HEADLINES

Offseason Preview

2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Milwaukee Bucks

May 27th, 2023 at 3:58pm CST by Rory Maher

There is already proof of concept that Milwaukee’s core roster is a championship-caliber group, given that the team won the title two years ago. However, the past two seasons have ended in disappointment, with exits in the second and first round of the playoffs, respectively.

The Bucks were considered the favorites to win the championship again in ’22/23 after posting a league-high 58 wins and entering the Eastern Conference playoffs as the top overall seed. Instead, they lost a five-game first-round series against No. 8 Miami in embarrassing fashion, blowing double-digit fourth-quarter leads in Games 4 and 5 after Giannis Antetokounmpo returned from a back injury.

Obviously, the two-time MVP missing two games — and most of a third — had an impact on the series. Antetokounmpo looked less than 100 percent once he did return. Still, the Heat were clearly the better, more composed team when it mattered most.

An injury to a key player was a major factor in Milwaukee’s 2022 playoff ouster too, as three-time All-Star Khris Middleton missed last spring’s entire seven-game series against Boston. But health luck always plays an important role in the championship race, and the Bucks had the third-most expensive roster in the NBA in ’22/23, with a projected tax payment of nearly $84MM, per Eric Pincus. Championships and pricey payrolls lead to high expectations, which is why head coach Mike Budenholzer was fired after five seasons at the helm.

While Antetokounmpo is only 28 years old and has shown no signs of slowing down from a production standpoint, his very physical playing style has contributed to him appearing in between 61 and 67 regular seasons games over the past four years. Figuring out the best way to optimize his prime with a newly restrictive Collective Bargaining Agreement about to kick in is the biggest challenge the Bucks face going forward.

The Bucks’ Offseason Plan

The first order of business for Milwaukee this offseason has reportedly already been decided — Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin will be the new head coach after the Bucks interviewed a lengthy list of candidates. Antetokounmpo was said to be “intrigued” by Griffin and endorsed the former NBA wing, who doesn’t have head coaching experience but had an impressive interview.

Now that the coaching search is complete, the two most immediate concerns for the Bucks are figuring out what Middleton is going to do with his $40.4MM player option and working out a new contract with center Brook Lopez, who is an unrestricted free agent. The priority will likely be bringing back both players, since they don’t have a reasonable way to replace two of the top potential free agents on the market.

Let’s say Middleton picks up the option and the Bucks either extend or re-sign Lopez to a new deal with a starting value of $15MM in 2023/24. That would put Milwaukee’s payroll at $172.8MM with only eight players signed to standard contracts. The projected luxury tax line is $162MM.

In that scenario, even if the Bucks signed six players on minimum contracts to fill out the roster at an average of $2MM each (about the projection for a veteran with two years of experience), their payroll would be $184.8MM, which would be nearly $23MM over the tax line.

In the new CBA, which will kick in starting July 1, the NBA will implement a second tax apron that will be $17.5MM above the tax line. The second apron is essentially a pseudo-hard cap, because it is very punitive to the league’s biggest spenders.

Teams above the second apron will lose access to the taxpayer mid-level exception — the Bucks would have been ineligible to sign Joe Ingles with their taxpayer MLE last summer had the rule been in effect. There are several other prohibitive restrictions that will reportedly be phased in over the next two seasons — the full list can be found right here.

There are ways the Bucks could still avoid the apron. If Middleton is open to a new long-term contract with a lower starting value in ’23/24, that could help. Trading one of their mid-sized contracts (Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen) would be an option.

Allen, who has averaged 10.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG and 1.9 APG on .441/.401/.881 shooting over the past four seasons with the Grizzlies and Bucks, seems like the most likely to be on the move, considering he was involved in plenty of trade rumors in ’22/23 and his contract will be expiring.

While it is absolutely beneficial to avoid the second tax apron long term, there’s nothing preventing the Bucks from re-signing their own free agents this offseason if ownership is still willing to foot the bill.

In addition to Lopez and Middleton, who was limited to 33 regular season games but had a strong playoff showing, guard Jevon Carter could become a free agent if he declines his $2.2MM player option in search of a pay raise, and Ingles, Jae Crowder, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Goran Dragic, Meyers Leonard and Wesley Matthews are all unrestricted FAs. That’s nine possible free agents. Needless to say, there could be roster turnover, even if it’s at the back end.

Although it might seem counterintuitive based on how the luxury tax works (increasing penalties), if the Bucks do bring back some of their free agents, they would actually be better off signing a few of them to deals above the minimum — if given permission from ownership. That would create more mid-sized contracts that could possibly be used as salary ballast in future trades, since the Bucks are unlikely to move any of their expensive core (Giannis, Middleton, Jrue Holiday). That’s assuming, of course, Middleton returns, which I do think is very likely — he and Giannis are the longest-tenured members of the team and have been instrumental in building the Bucks’ winning culture.

The Bucks only control one draft pick in 2023 — No. 58 overall, the final pick of the second round — and only have one tradable first-rounder (2029) due to obligations from other deals. They’ve also traded away five of their next six second-rounders after this season. As such, their movable draft equity is very limited for the time being.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 58 overall (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Grayson Allen (veteran)
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (veteran)
  • Jae Crowder (veteran)
  • Brook Lopez (veteran)
  • Khris Middleton (veteran)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Crowder and Lopez are only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap hold for Teague remains on the Bucks’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000

Note: The Bucks would gain access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary remains below the tax apron. If their team salary exceeds the second tax apron, they would lose access to any form of the mid-level exception.

Retweet 2 Share 0 Send via email0

2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves

May 26th, 2023 at 3:16pm CST by Rory Maher

The Timberwolves have historically been one of the worst teams in the league, particularly before and after the Kevin Garnett era. But they were one of the best stories of 2021/22, doubling their win total by going 46-36 and making the playoffs as the No. 7 seed before losing their first-round series against Memphis in six games.

Minnesota was determined to avoid regression last offseason and made one of the most shocking trades in NBA history, dealing away three rotation players, five first-round picks and a pick swap for center Rudy Gobert. Unfortunately, his frontcourt partner Karl-Anthony Towns missed much of ’22/23 due to a major calf injury, so the Wolves still only have a small sample size to examine the fit between the two former All-NBA big men.

The Wolves hovered around .500 for much of the season, ultimately finishing 42-40 and avoiding the risk of draft-lottery disaster by making the playoffs as the No. 8 seed (Utah controls Minnesota’s first-round pick, No. 16 overall). Late-season injuries to Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels hurt their depth entering the postseason though, and the Wolves lost their first-round series to the Nuggets in five games.

While it’s a noteworthy accomplishment that the Wolves made the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2002-04, they have their sights set much higher going forward after trading away so many assets for Gobert.

The Timberwolves’ Offseason Plan

Minnesota is faced with a lot of difficult questions this offseason. The most prominent is whether or not the pairing of Gobert and Towns can ultimately lead to a championship when they’re taking up such a huge portion of the payroll, especially when it’s clear the future hinges on the evolution of Anthony Edwards (and, to a lesser extent, Jaden McDaniels).

I’m not going to go too deep into revisiting the Gobert trade, but needless to say it does not look good at all for the Wolves. Is there anyone right now that would even take Gobert in a one-for-one trade for Walker Kessler, the No. 22 overall pick last year who was sent to the Jazz as part of the deal?

Gobert makes $131.5MM over the next three seasons and will turn 31 years old next month. Kessler, who finished third in Rookie of the Year voting and nearly doubled Gobert’s block total (173 vs. 95) in far fewer minutes, will earn $10.7MM over the next three seasons and turns 22 in July. And the Wolves still owe the Jazz four additional first-rounders and a pick swap, not to mention the other players involved.

But I digress. Gobert is on the roster now, and the Wolves can only hope that he returns next season as the dominant paint protector he had been for the better part of the past decade. That version of Gobert was not present for much of ’22/23 — he didn’t receive a single vote for All-Defense or Defensive Player of the Year after making six consecutive All-Defensive First Teams and winning three Defensive Player of the Year awards from 2016-22. His trade value has bottomed out, because he has never been a great offensive player.

The Wolves will almost certainly offer Edwards a rookie scale max extension, and his fellow 2020 draft class member McDaniels is likely to get a very lucrative extension as well. It will be interesting to see exactly how much he receives with the addition of a possible fifth year for non-max rookie scale extensions.

Those extensions won’t take effect until ’24/25, which gives the Wolves a little bit of breathing room this offseason. But that’s also the main reason why I think they should explore the trade market for Towns this offseason in an effort to split his salary slot into smaller pieces. It doesn’t seem like they’ll actually do that, but that’s what I would do.

After signing a super-max extension last summer following an All-NBA appearance in ’21/22, Towns will earn an estimated $220MM+ from 2024-2028 (35% of the salary cap). Edwards will likely be making 25-30% of the cap as well, depending on whether he makes an All-NBA team next season. Gobert will be making nearly $44MM in 2024/25, which is close to the max. Even conservatively projecting McDaniels for a salary of $20MM, the Wolves would be faced with an enormous payroll two years from now. That isn’t sustainable.

Towns is an incredibly skilled and talented offensive player, but he doesn’t make great decisions and I doubt he’ll ever hold up well enough on defense to be worth that financial commitment. His brief playoff performances have been uneven at best.

The question is, what can they get for Towns? He’s only 27, so he’s theoretically in his prime. Minnesota wants to give itself the best chance to win the championship, so draft picks are unlikely to be of interest unless they can be rerouted as part of a three-way trade. Young players on rookie contracts would be appealing, but matching salaries wouldn’t be easy.

The Wolves are highly likely to guarantee the salaries of Mike Conley and Taurean Prince for ’23/24, as both were key rotation members last season. That would push their ’23/24 payroll up to $139.8MM — over the projected $134MM cap — with nine players under contract. Staying under the $162MM luxury tax while improving the roster will be tricky, especially when considering their own free agents, which include Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jaylen Nowell and Naz Reid.

I really like Alexander-Walker’s defense, but I’m not sure he’s a lock to receive the $7MM qualifying offer that would make him a restricted free agent. If the Wolves don’t issue the QO, the 24-year-old would be unrestricted and free to sign with any team. That doesn’t mean the Wolves couldn’t bring him back, but it would be a risk if they do want to retain him, since they’d lose control of the process.

The other young guard, Nowell, might have one foot out the door already, based on various reports throughout the season. He seems intent on testing his value on the open market. Interest seems likely to be tepid though after a down season that saw him shoot just 28.9% from deep.

Reid, on the other hand, should attract a lot of interest after a career year. The Wolves have said they want to retain him, and they have his Bird rights, but I wonder if he’ll look for an opportunity for more minutes elsewhere in his first foray into free agency. Losing him would be a big blow to the team’s frontcourt depth, but you could also argue it would be difficult to justify paying him with Gobert and Towns already under long-term contracts. I’m very curious to see what type of deal he’ll get. I would rather have Reid at around $12MM per year than pay Towns four or five times that much in the future.

Jordan McLaughlin, whose contract is non-guaranteed, had a disappointing and injury-riddled season as the backup point guard. His contract is affordable enough, but I think the Wolves will look to upgrade that position, whether it be in free agency or via trade. Conley showed he could still contribute at a quality level last season, but he’ll be 36 when next season starts and on an expiring contract. Point guard is a position to watch going forward in Minnesota.

How many of their own free agents the Wolves retain — and how much they pay them — will determine whether or not they’ll have access to the full mid-level exception to sign other free agents.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • Nathan Knight ($1,997,238): Early Bird rights
    • Note: Knight’s salary would be partially guaranteed ($380,718) if his option is exercised.
  • Total: $1,997,238

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Mike Conley ($10,040,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Conley’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 24.
  • Taurean Prince ($7,650,000)
    • Note: Prince’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 28.
  • Jordan McLaughlin ($2,320,000)
    • Note: McLaughlin’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Total: $20,010,000

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 53 overall (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Mike Conley (veteran)
  • Rudy Gobert (veteran)
  • Jordan McLaughlin (veteran)
  • Jaylen Nowell (veteran)
  • Naz Reid (veteran)
  • Anthony Edwards (rookie scale)
  • Jaden McDaniels (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Nowell and Reid are only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Turner, Brooks, and Monroe remain on the Timberwolves’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $4,374,000
    • Note: Expires on July 6.
  • Trade exception: $3,688,117

Note: The Timberwolves would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

Retweet 2 Share 0 Send via email0

2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

May 25th, 2023 at 12:23pm CST by Rory Maher

After LeBron James left for Los Angles in the summer of 2018, the Cavaliers were the NBA’s worst team over the following three seasons, going a combined 60-159 (.274 win percentage). In 2021/22, Cleveland got off to a great start, sitting at 35-21 — just one game back of the top seed in the East — on February 11.

Unfortunately, season-ending knee injuries to Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio had limited the Cavs’ backcourt depth, which was further tested when Darius Garland and Caris LeVert (whom the team acquired at last year’s trade deadline) battled their own health problems. Lauri Markkanen and Jarrett Allen missed significant time as well, and the Cavs went just 9-17 to close the season, ultimately losing both of their play-in games.

By all accounts, it was still a wildly successful season, but the way it ended understandably left a sour taste in the Cavs’ mouths. They likely would have made the playoffs had they been healthy, but injuries are part of the game.

Instead of returning the same group, the Cavs wanted to accelerate their timeline. It seemed like a foregone conclusion last summer that Donovan Mitchell would eventually end up with his native New York, but instead the Jazz shocked the NBA world by sending him to Cleveland in exchange for Markkanen, Sexton (via sign-and-trade), No. 14 overall pick Ochai Agbaji, the Cavaliers’ unprotected first-round picks in 2025, 2027 and 2029, and the right to swap first-round picks with the Cavaliers in both 2026 and 2028.

Mitchell had an excellent debut season with the Cavs, averaging a career-high 28.3 points per game while scoring more efficiently than ever before, ultimately finishing sixth in MVP voting and earning an All-NBA (Second Team) spot for the first time in his career. Behind the league’s top-ranked defense and an improved offense, the Cavs increased their win total by seven games, going 51-31 and entering the playoffs as the East’s No. 4 seed.

However, Cleveland was thoroughly outplayed in its first-round series against New York, losing in five games. The Cavs actually still hold the best postseason defensive rating out of 16 playoff teams despite the series being lopsided, but a playoff-worst offense and defensive rebounding were major issues.

The Cavaliers’ Offseason Plan

Cleveland doesn’t control its 2023 first-round pick (No. 26 overall), which will be sent to Indiana as part of the trade for LeVert. In fact, the Cavs don’t currently have any future tradable first-round picks due to the Mitchell deal, though they technically could give up swap rights in 2024.

As such, the players on the Cavs’ roster are the primary assets the team controls. The team’s four best players — Mitchell, Garland, Mobley and Allen — are unlikely to be on the move, as they were the core of the team’s first 50-win season without James since ’92/93.

It’s noteworthy that Allen and Mobley struggled in the postseason, getting outplayed by the Knicks’ frontcourt. It turned out to be a bad matchup for the Cavs.

As previously mentioned, one weakness the Cavs had throughout the season was defensive rebounding. They ranked 20th in the league with a 71.5% defensive rebounding percentage. That figure dropped to 60.6% in the playoffs — a figure 7.9% lower than Indiana’s bottom mark during the regular season. The Knicks, meanwhile, held a 31.8% offensive rebounding percentage in the regular season, the second-best rate in the NBA — that number rose to 34.8% in the playoffs, the top mark among the 16 postseason teams.

Of course, not all of that is on Allen and Mobley. Rebounding is a team effort, and wing Josh Hart was a wrecking ball on the offensive glass for New York. It did expose Cleveland’s lack of depth up front (and in general) as an issue though, with Allen and Mobley looking worn down from playing more minutes against a stronger, deeper and more physical Knicks frontline.

President of basketball operations Koby Altman said the Cavs have no intention of overreacting to the playoff loss by breaking up their frontcourt duo, which makes sense, as they were the anchors of the defense. But I do wonder about the long-term fit of Mobley and Allen on offense.

Neither Mobley nor Allen is a threat to shoot from behind the arc at this point, which hurts the team’s spacing. The lane being constantly congested was a major issue in the playoffs, as Mitchell Robinson could just patrol the paint, which is what he prefers to do and is very good at.

That said, the biggest question mark facing the Cavs entering the 2023 offseason is the same as it was entering the 2022/23 season: Finding the right fit at small forward. Caris LeVert filled in at multiple positions throughout the season, including small forward, and he is the team’s biggest free agent. But forward isn’t his natural position, and the Cavs need more depth at other spots as well.

My expectation is the Cavs will look to either extend or re-sign LeVert to a contract perhaps in the range of $45MM over three years. He has said he “absolutely” wants to return and Altman called retaining LeVert a priority.

I also think they’ll guarantee Cedi Osman‘s $6.7MM salary for ’23/24 and pick up their $1.9MM team option on Lamar Stevens. That would give the Cavs 10 players under standard contracts for a total of about $140MM (assuming a $15MM cap hit for LeVert), pushing them over the projected $134MM salary cap.

As long as LeVert’s first-year salary isn’t too expensive, the Cavs could renounce their other cap holds and have the ability to sign a free agent (or two) using their mid-level exception and fill out the roster with minimum contracts without going into the luxury tax, which is projected to be $162MM. They could possibly use their $4.5MM bi-annual exception as well, but it would be a tight squeeze.

If the Cavs can’t shore up their wing depth with the mid-level — there aren’t a ton of great options at that price — I wonder if they might pivot and look to improve their depth at guard or center. Dennis Schröder and Gabe Vincent are unrestricted free agent point guards, while Naz Reid could be an interesting addition at backup center. Reid would bring some floor spacing and a pump-and-drive element that Mobley and Allen don’t currently possess.

In addition to external help, the Cavs will look for internal development, including from wing Isaac Okoro, who will be eligible for a rookie scale extension. They’ll also be hoping for a bounce-back season and better health from forward Dean Wade, who never looked right after injuring his shoulder in December and was limited to 44 regular season games.

Veteran guard Rubio was another player who didn’t look like his old self in ’22/23 as he returned from a torn ACL. He’ll be several more months removed from that surgery by the time next season rolls around, so the Cavs will be hoping he’ll be able to find the form he displayed in his first year with the team in ’21/22.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • Lamar Stevens ($1,930,681): Bird rights
    • Note: Stevens’ salary would remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
  • Total: $1,930,681

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Cedi Osman ($6,718,842)
    • Note: Osman’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 29.
  • Sam Merrill ($1,997,238)
  • Total: $8,716,080

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 49 overall (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Caris LeVert (veteran)
  • Donovan Mitchell (veteran)
  • Cedi Osman (veteran)
  • Lamar Stevens (veteran)
  • Isaac Okoro (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. LeVert is only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Davis, Rondo, and Goodwin remain on the Cavaliers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $3,918,360
    • Note: Expires on September 4.

Note: The Cavaliers would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

Retweet 3 Share 0 Send via email0

2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Brooklyn Nets

May 24th, 2023 at 1:10pm CST by Luke Adams

When the Nets landed Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in free agency in 2019, it represented a major step in the club’s transition from plucky upstart to star-studded super-team, a transformation that was completed with the 2021 acquisition of James Harden.

Two years after landing Harden, Brooklyn is out of the super-team business, having traded away Harden in 2022 and Durant and Irving in 2023. The new-look Nets bear some resemblance to the pre-2019 squad — there are a lot of promising pieces on the roster, but little star power, so the upside is limited.

Among Brooklyn’s current players, there are two obvious ceiling raisers whose next steps could go a long way to determining the club’s trajectory. Mikal Bridges, acquired from Phoenix in February’s Durant blockbuster, averaged 26.1 points per game after joining the Nets and has an All-Defensive nod on his résumé. If anyone on the roster is going to be an All-Star next season, it will likely be Bridges.

Of course, the only player on the roster who has already been an All-Star – three times, in fact – is former No. 1 overall pick Ben Simmons, who had a forgettable first full season in Brooklyn. Physical and mental issues, along with an aversion to shooting, have hampered Simmons’ development, but he was one of the NBA’s best passers and defenders while earning three consecutive All-Star berths from 2019-21. The hope is that there’s still some bounce-back potential in 2023/24, when he’ll be another year removed from 2022 back surgery.

Even if Bridges continues to establish himself as a franchise cornerstone and Simmons looks more like his old self next season, the Nets won’t be a legitimate championship contender like they were when Durant, Irving, and Harden played for the team.

But there are solid building blocks in place here, and the vibes in Brooklyn this offseason should be a little more positive than they were a year ago, when Durant asked team ownership to either move him or fire GM Sean Marks and head coach Steve Nash, while Irving spent weeks flirting with the idea of leaving the Nets in free agency or via trade.

The Nets’ Offseason Plan:

Re-signing Cameron Johnson in restricted free agency will likely be the Nets’ top priority this offseason. Bridges was the centerpiece of the Durant trade, and some of the future unprotected first-round picks in that deal could become future gems, but Johnson shouldn’t be overlooked as a crucial part of Brooklyn’s return from the Suns. He’s already one of the NBA’s best outside shooters, making 41.6% of 6.0 three-pointers per game over the last two seasons, and he’s not a liability on the defensive end.

Johnson won’t come cheap, but the knee injury that cost him half the 2022/23 season may help keep his price in check, especially if none of the teams with cap room this summer make a serious push for him. Even though Johnson isn’t the two-way dynamo that Bridges is, the Nets should be happy if they can lock up Johnson to a contract identical to Bridges’ rookie scale extension (four years, $90MM). It should age well as the salary cap continues to grow in the coming years.

If the Nets commit to paying Johnson approximately $20MM in 2023/24 and guarantee the remainder of Royce O’Neale‘s $9.5MM salary (which is a lock), their team salary will exceed the projected luxury tax line.

Nets owner Joe Tsai has shown in recent years that he’s willing to spend big, but he’ll be less inclined to pay the tax for this roster than he was for the version headed by Durant, Irving, and Harden, especially with more punitive penalties for taxpaying teams coming in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Simmons, whose $37.9MM salary will be the largest on the payroll by a wide margin, is Brooklyn’s most obvious trade candidate, but moving him this offseason probably isn’t the right play. His value has cratered, so the Nets would be selling low and would almost certainly have to attach draft picks and/or a more valuable player to get anything useful in return for him. Hanging onto Simmons and hoping that he’s healthier and more productive next season is the more prudent path.

In all likelihood, at least one of Brooklyn’s veteran wings will be on the move. Joe Harris ($19.9MM), Dorian Finney-Smith ($13.9MM), and O’Neale ($9.5MM) are part of that group. Of those three, Harris is the most expensive and the weakest defender, so he’ll likely find himself on the trade block. But the Nets would get more in return for Finney-Smith or O’Neale, and losing Harris’ shooting and floor spacing could hurt, with Seth Curry headed for free agency.

In theory, the Nets would like to add more scoring and play-making, as well as more size and rebounding up front, but it’s unclear whether they’ll be able to address those needs directly in a trade involving one or more of their wings. The front office will likely explore many possibilities on the trade market, including three-way frameworks or scenarios in which they flip assets from one trade partner to another in separate deals.

A cost-cutting Brooklyn team with quality rotation players available would, for instance, be a logical trade partner for a Houston club that has cap space and is eager to be more competitive in 2023/24. Perhaps the Nets could dangle O’Neale in an effort to recoup one of the first-round picks they previously traded to the Rockets, then turn around and package a draft pick or two with another player (such as Harris, Spencer Dinwiddie, or Patty Mills) in an effort to better balance their roster.

While free agency is another path Brooklyn could look at as it seeks roster upgrades, the team will be well over the cap, and its ability to use its mid-level exception will be compromised as long as its salary remains above or near the tax line. I’d expect the Nets to push to re-sign Johnson and explore what it would take to bring back Curry (especially if Harris is traded), but I wouldn’t count on an impact signing of an outside free agent.

There may be some advocates for the Nets, having traded Durant and Irving earlier this year, to take another step toward a full rebuild by moving more veterans and perhaps securing a huge package of picks and prospects for Bridges. But Brooklyn doesn’t control its own first-round pick for any of the four years from 2024-27 — the Rockets will receive the Nets’ unprotected pick in 2024 and 2026 and have swap rights in ’25 and ’27. So there’s little incentive for the franchise to bottom out.

Instead, I’d expect general manager Sean Marks to focus on making a few tweaks to the roster this offseason, then to prepare for more significant changes in 2024 when several contracts (including Dinwiddie, Harris, O’Neale, and Mills) will come off the books.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Royce O’Neale ($7,000,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. O’Neale’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 10.
  • Edmond Sumner ($2,239,943)
    • Note: Sumner’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 6.
  • Total: $9,239,943

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 21 overall ($3,043,560)
  • No. 22 overall (2,922,000)
  • No. 51 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $5,965,560

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Seth Curry (veteran)
  • Spencer Dinwiddie (veteran)
  • Joe Harris (veteran)
  • Royce O’Neale (veteran)
  • Ben Simmons (veteran)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Curry is only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Aldridge, Chandler, and James remain on the Nets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $18,131,946
  • Trade exception: $4,494,702
  • Trade exception: $1,836,090
  • Trade exception: $1,836,090
  • Trade exception: $1,637,966

Note: The Nets would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

Retweet 3 Share 0 Send via email0

2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Atlanta Hawks

May 23rd, 2023 at 3:48pm CST by Rory Maher

A young team making an unexpected trip to the conference finals is never a bad thing, right? It generates money, which ownership loves. It gets fans excited for the future. The players gain valuable experience. All positive benefits.

Unfortunately, that same core group takes a step back the following season, barely sneaking into the playoffs via the play-in tournament and then losing in the first round in five games. That seems like a good time to make changes, because maybe the roster isn’t clicking in ways you’d hope.

So you make a major offseason trade to shake up the starting lineup. But the team sees its record in the following season drop to .500 and makes another quick first-round playoff exit, this time in six games.

That’s the position the Hawks find themselves in entering the 2023 offseason. The biggest change Atlanta made during the 2022/23 season was firing head coach Nate McMillan – who reportedly didn’t have a great relationship with Trae Young – and replacing him with Quin Snyder, the former Jazz coach. Snyder will have a voice in personnel decisions going forward, and it will be interesting to see what direction he wants to go with the roster.

Despite sliding down the standings and dealing away two unprotected picks (2025 and 2027) to the Spurs in the deal to acquire Dejounte Murray, the Hawks have plenty of players other teams want, so they aren’t lacking in assets. Improving the team’s defense — which ranked 22nd in the league this season — will be a priority going forward.

The Hawks’ Offseason Plan:

Atlanta has 10 players on guaranteed contracts entering 2023/24 for a grand total of $162.3MM. The projected luxury tax line is $162MM, and owner Tony Ressler has never paid the tax since he bought the team in 2015.

Last offseason, the Hawks traded Kevin Huerter to the Kings to avoid being a taxpayer. Could another cost-cutting move be in store this summer? It seems highly likely, given the mediocre on-court results in ’22/23.

John Collins is the most obvious trade candidate on the roster, and his name has consistently been in the rumor mill for years now. The problem is, he’s owed $78.5MM over the next three years, and is coming off a career-worst season statistically. As such, his contract will likely be viewed as a negative asset by rival front offices.

General manager Landry Fields has publicly maintained that the team likes Collins, and the Hawks aren’t interested in simply shedding his salary. That’s understandable — it’s typical for incumbent teams to value their own players and nothing can be gained by undercutting Collins’ value — but it won’t have any bearing on how rival teams view the veteran forward.

Minnesota was interested in Clint Capela before trading for Rudy Gobert last summer, and I view the Swiss center as another logical trade candidate. He’s under contract for the next two seasons (for about $43MM), but his backup, Onyeka Okongwu, is eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason, and it’s hard to envision both players being on the roster by the time ’24/25 rolls around.

The biggest offseason question the Hawks face is what to do with the backcourt pairing of Young and Murray. Despite lobbying for Murray to join Atlanta, Young didn’t show much interest in playing off the ball this year; it was mostly Murray who adjusted in that sense. That isn’t ideal, because Murray only shot 34.4% from three-point range, and teams don’t treat him as an outside threat.

Still, while it would be nice to see more synergy and off-ball movement between those two and there’s always room for improvement, offense is far from the main problem — the Hawks ranked seventh on that end in ’22/23 and have been in the top 10 in each of the past three seasons. The issue is, can two guards who ideally play the point hold up defensively? Young is one of the smallest players in the league and is always going to get targeted on that end, so it’s an uphill battle.

Of all the players under contract next season, I would be most surprised if Murray gets dealt simply because of what the team gave up to get him last year. He’s set to hit unrestricted free agency in 2024 and will likely be looking for a max contract, which puts Atlanta in a tough spot with Young already making the max and four other players making $17MM+ in ’24/25. That doesn’t even include possible rookie extensions for Okongwu and/or Saddiq Bey, whom the team acquired for five second-rounders at the trade deadline.

Very little feels settled on this roster. Almost everything should be on the table if it pushes the Hawks in the right direction. That said, despite some speculation, I don’t see Young going anywhere this summer. Perhaps if next season goes really poorly the Hawks will think about it, but it seems like it would be prudent to see how he does with a full season under Snyder first.

There is a good deal of individual talent in Atlanta, and nearly everyone under contract in ’23/24 has positive or neutral trade value. There is depth at every position, and young players complementing veterans. All things you want when building a team.

But not many of the players are well-rounded, and the payroll is about to get very expensive just as the new Collective Bargaining Agreement — which is much more punitive to the league’s taxpaying teams — is set to kick in. The Hawks will have to strike a delicate balance of acquiring the right pieces to fit the roster while watching their salary, because it’s clear more changes are needed.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Bruno Fernando ($2,581,522)
    • Note: Fernando’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 29.
  • Garrison Mathews ($2,000,000)
    • Note: Mathews’ salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 29.
  • Vit Krejci ($1,836,096)
  • Tyrese Martin ($1,719,864)
    • Note: Martin’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 21.
  • Total: $8,137,482

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 15 overall ($4,033,440)
  • No. 46 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $4,033,440

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Clint Capela (veteran)
  • Vit Krejci (veteran)
  • Dejounte Murray (veteran)
  • Saddiq Bey (rookie scale)
  • Onyeka Okongwu (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000
  • Trade exception: $6,292,440
  • Trade exception: $2,564,980
    • Note: Expires on September 27.
  • Trade exception: $692,429
    • Note: Expires on July 6.
  • Trade exception: $46,120
    • Note: Expires on July 6.

Note: The Hawks would gain access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary remains below the tax apron.

Retweet 2 Share 0 Send via email0

2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Dallas Mavericks

May 21st, 2023 at 8:53am CST by Rory Maher

After going 24-58 in 2017/18 and landing the No. 5 overall pick in the 2018 draft, the Mavericks traded up two slots to select Luka Doncic. The move paid immediate dividends, with the Slovenian winning Rookie of the Year in ’18/19 and Dallas increasing its win total by nine games (33-49).

That steady upward trajectory continued in Doncic’s second through fourth seasons, with the Mavs improving in each regular season from 2020-22. The same was true of the playoffs, with Dallas losing in the first round to the Clippers in six and then seven games, and then making it all the way to the Western Conference Finals a year ago, falling to the eventual champion Warriors.

Doncic’s offensive brilliance was on full display again in 2022/23, with the 24-year-old posting career highs in points per game (32.4), field goal percentage (49.6%) and true percentage (60.9%) while cutting down on turnovers (3.6 vs. 4.5 in ’21/22). He also averaged 8.6 rebounds, 8.0 assists and 1.4 steals in 66 games (36.2 minutes) en route to a fourth consecutive All-NBA First Team honor.

However, basketball is a team game, and Doncic played a role in the team’s significant defensive regression. While the Mavs improved on offense, going from 14th to sixth, they slid all the way down to 25th defensively after ranking seventh last season. After going 52-30 with a plus-3.5 net rating in ’21/22, the Mavs went 38-44 with a minus-0.2 net rating this season and missed the play-in tournament completely.

The Mavericks’ Offseason Plan:

Dallas was highly criticized throughout the season for opting against re-signing Jalen Brunson, who has publicly said he would have agreed to an extension ($55.6MM over four years) in ’21/22 had the Mavs offered it prior to or early in the season. Instead, he signed with the Knicks for $104MM over four years, and it’s looking like a terrific value deal considering his excellent play during the regular season and postseason with New York.

The only other significant roster tweak the Mavs made last summer was trading their first-round pick (26th overall) and four smallish expiring contracts for Christian Wood. The 27-year-old big man never seemed to ingratiate himself with the coaching staff though, likely due to his defensive struggles. Multiple reports have indicated (and GM Nico Harrison suggested) that the Mavs are unlikely re-sign the impending free agent.

Wood’s lack of defensive awareness is not a new problem, so I’m not sure why Dallas thought he’d suddenly get better there. Regardless, it certainly sounds like the talented scorer will be on a new team next season after averaging 16.6 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.1 blocks on .515/.376/.772 shooting in 67 games with the Mavs (17 starts, 25.6 minutes).

Dallas’ free agent role player group features Dwight Powell, Justin Holiday, Theo Pinson, Frank Ntilikina and Markieff Morris. Powell probably has the best chance to return as the longest-tenured member of the team, but only if he’s willing to accept a substantial pay cut after earning $11MM in 2022/23 — his play has declined in recent seasons.

The biggest offseason question surrounding the Mavs relates to their trade deadline acquisition of Kyrie Irving, who is also a free agent. The move was made to kick-start their season in an effort to make the playoffs, but that’s not how things turned out — Dallas was 30-26 and clinging to the No. 5 seed prior to Irving’s first game, and went 8-18 the rest of the way.

I’m certainly not blaming that on Irving. The Mavs were 8-12 when he played, which isn’t great, but they were much, much better when he was on the court (plus-5.8) than when he was off (minus-8.3). His individual numbers (27.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.3 steals on .510/.392/.947 shooting in 20 games) were stellar, and by all accounts he didn’t cause any disruptions in the locker room.

Still, the fact that Dallas was 5-11 with both Irving and Doncic in the lineup was problematic, and shows the difficulty of constructing a roster around two dominant offensive players who can be borderline liabilities at times on the other end. The fact that they traded away their best defensive player (Dorian Finney-Smith) to acquire Irving didn’t help matters.

Harrison, head coach Jason Kidd, and owner Mark Cuban have all publicly stated they want to re-sign Irving. They also said they wanted to bring back Brunson last year (Cuban talked about having his Bird rights and being able to offer more money than a rival team), so those comments offer no guarantees. Whether they should retain Irving is a different question.

True, they gave up a lot to get him, and they don’t have an easy way to replace his salary slot. Losing him for nothing isn’t an option they can seriously consider. But do they really want to give him a five-year max contract worth a projected $272MM? I’d be shocked if they actually offer that, and would consider it organizational malpractice.

Based purely on his on-court value, there’s no question that Irving is a max player…when he actually plays. The problem is, he has only appeared in 70-plus games in three of his 12 seasons, missing extended time due to injuries and various off-court issues. The unwanted attention he brings off the court can’t be overlooked, nor can his mercurial, unpredictable nature.

He reportedly requested a trade from the Nets in part because they refused to offer him a full max extension. So even if the Mavs offer a three- or four-year max deal (which would align with Doncic’s contract), would he accept it? Who knows.

Let’s say he does accept a slightly shorter-term max deal. That would start at a projected $46.9MM next season, and the Mavs already have $103.6MM committed to eight players — $108.6MM if they guarantee the rest of Reggie Bullock‘s salary, which seems likely if he isn’t traded. Even filling out the rest of the roster with minimum-salary contracts would push Dallas perilously close to the luxury tax apron in that scenario, and would remove the option of using the full mid-level and bi-annual exceptions.

The Mavs would have to make a pretty significant cost-cutting move just to regain full access to those exceptions. But doing that would mean parting with one or more of their assets, and that cupboard is already scarce after the Kristaps Porzingis and Irving trades. Further depleting that pool would lessen the odds of improving the roster, and they’re desperately trying to win as soon as possible.

They control their own 2023 lottery pick (No. 10 overall) after tanking the last few games of ’22/23, but the only other first-rounder they can unconditionally trade right now is ’27, because their other picks are encumbered (they still owe the Knicks a top-10 protected first). Rival teams would be interested in Josh Green (who’s eligible for a rookie scale extension) and Jaden Hardy, but they’re the most interesting young players on the roster outside of Doncic.

Tim Hardaway Jr. has long been rumored as a trade candidate, but his contract ($34MM through ’24/25) has neutral value at best. Dallas would definitely have to give up assets to move off the $33MM it owes Davis Bertans over the next two seasons. Ditto, to a lesser extent, for JaVale McGee ($11.7MM through ’24/25). Maxi Kleber ($11MM each of the next three seasons) probably has positive value, although he didn’t quite look right after returning from a torn hamstring, and he’s also arguably the best defender left on the roster.

The Mavs will certainly be aggressive in trying to improve their defense and rebounding, which ranked last in the league. Another losing campaign runs the risk of Doncic requesting a trade, because the disappointing season clearly did not sit well with the young star. But it won’t be easy to build a contender with their limited available assets and some of the bad contracts already on the books.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Reggie Bullock ($5,038,400)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Bullock’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 28.
  • Total: $5,038,400

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 10 overall ($5,212,800)
  • Total: $5,212,800

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Irving, Powell, and Wood are only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Melli and Wright remain on the Mavericks’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $958,529
    • Note: Expires on June 26.

Note: The Mavericks would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

Retweet 6 Share 0 Send via email0

2023 NBA Offseason Preview: New Orleans Pelicans

May 20th, 2023 at 10:42am CST by Luke Adams

After acquiring CJ McCollum at the 2022 trade deadline, the Pelicans went on an impressive late-season run, earning a playoff spot with a pair of play-in tournament victories and then giving the top-ranked Suns a scare in the first round by pushing the series to six games.

With former No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson healthy to begin the 2022/23 season, there was optimism that New Orleans could make the leap to top-six playoff team and legitimate title contender. And as long as Williamson was on the court, that belief looked entirely warranted. Through the end of December, the Pelicans were 23-13, putting them in a tie for the No. 2 seed in the West, and their +4.8 net rating was the best in the conference.

Unfortunately, the Pelicans’ first game of 2023 was the last one of the season for Williamson, who suffered a hamstring injury that ultimately sidelined him for the remainder of the winter and spring. New Orleans went into a tailspin later in January, ultimately finishing the season on a 19-27 run and then losing a play-in game at home to the 10th-seeded Thunder.

While the Pelicans’ early-season success was encouraging, their reversal of fortunes once Williamson went down was a reminder that they don’t have enough talent to consistently win without him and that they can’t rely on him to stay on the court — he has played more than 29 games just once in his first four NBA seasons.

The Pelicans aren’t trading or waiving Williamson, so all they can really do with Zion is hope for better injury luck. But they can at least take matters into their own hands with the rest of the roster, seeking out upgrades that will allow them to remain more competitive when the star forward isn’t available.

The Pelicans’ Offseason Plan:

With nearly $144MM in guaranteed money committed to eight players, the Pelicans won’t have cap room this offseason. However, once they lock in low-cost team options and non-guaranteed salaries for players like Herbert Jones, Jose Alvarado, and Naji Marshall, they should remain comfortably below the luxury tax line, giving them the flexibility to go shopping in free agency using most of their non-taxpayer mid-level exception.

New Orleans also has a bevy of trade chips available to seek out roster upgrades. Even if the Pelicans aren’t inclined to move any of their valuable young role players – Jones, Alvarado, Dyson Daniels, and Trey Murphy – they control all their own future first-round picks, including a 2023 lottery pick (No. 14). They also own the Lakers’ 2024 first-rounder (unprotected, with the option to defer it to 2025), the Bucks’ unprotected 2027 pick, and swap rights with Milwaukee in 2024 and 2026. In other words, they have the draft assets necessary to build a strong trade package around picks rather than players.

As they evaluate potential targets free agency or via trade, the Pelicans will have to consider what their plans are at center. Jonas Valanciunas, who started all but three games for New Orleans this past season, will earn $15.4MM in 2023/24 on an expiring contract.

As effective as Valanciunas is as a scorer and rebounder, he’s not a switchable defender, and head coach Willie Green often turned to Larry Nance Jr. at center in crunch-time minutes during the second half of the ’22/23 season. If Valanciunas isn’t in New Orleans’ long-term plans, his contract makes him an ideal salary-matching piece in any major trade, since McCollum ($35.8MM), Brandon Ingram ($33.8MM), and Williamson ($33.5MM) almost certainly aren’t going anywhere.

Valanciunas’ salary, for instance, would be a logical match for Raptors forward OG Anunoby ($18.6MM), who has been repeatedly linked to a New Orleans team that could use another two-way wing. Toronto won’t necessarily be eager to reunite with Valanciunas if Jakob Poeltl re-signs, and I’d expect the Raptors to push for players over picks in any major trade, since they don’t control their own 2024 first-round pick. Still, Anunoby is the sort of player the Pelicans figure to target on the trade market — and they have the pieces to get him if they’re willing to be aggressive.

If Valanciunas is moved for an upgrade at another position, it would leave the Pelicans without an obvious starting center on the roster. Former lottery pick Jaxson Hayes will be eligible for restricted free agency and hasn’t shown in his four NBA seasons that he’s ready to step into a starting role. Even if they plan to lean more on players like Nance, Williamson, and Jones as small-ball fives, the Pels would need to address the center position in some form if they were to trade Valanciunas and let Hayes walk. The mid-level exception could come in handy in that regard.

Of course, there’s no guarantee the Pelicans will do anything significant on the trade market this summer. Re-signing Josh Richardson would help fortify the team’s wing depth, and the hope is that youngsters like Murphy, Daniels, and Jones will continue to get better. Internal improvement and a healthy season from Williamson could make New Orleans a contender even without any real outside additions — and it would give the organization an opportunity to take a longer look at which pieces fit best around Zion.

Until they see Williamson play something close to a full season though, it’s hard for the Pelicans to count on that happening. The time might be right for David Griffin and the front office to work on a contingency plan that boosts the floor of this roster, with the hope that a healthy Zion will take its ceiling to new heights.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Garrett Temple ($5,401,000)
    • Note: Temple’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Jose Alvarado ($1,836,096)
  • Total: $7,237,096

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

  • None

Draft Picks

  • No. 14 overall ($4,246,200)
  • Total: $4,246,200

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Willy Hernangomez (veteran)
  • Brandon Ingram (veteran)
  • Herbert Jones (veteran)
  • Naji Marshall (veteran)
  • Garrett Temple (veteran)
  • Jonas Valanciunas (veteran)
  • Kira Lewis (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Hernangomez and Jones would only become eligible if their team options are exercised. Valanciunas will become eligible on October 20, which will be right around the start of the regular season.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players listed in italics remain on the Pelicans’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000

Note: The Pelicans would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

Retweet 4 Share 0 Send via email0

2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Chicago Bulls

May 19th, 2023 at 4:00pm CST by Rory Maher

After winning between 22 and 31 games for four straight seasons from 2018-21, the Bulls took a major step forward in the first half of 2021/22, going 27-13 with offseason additions DeMar DeRozan, Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball playing key roles in their success. They were the No. 1 seed in the East on January 14 of last year.

Unfortunately, Ball tore his meniscus that day against Golden State, and hasn’t played a game since, having undergone three different knee surgeries to address persistent pain. Caruso dealt with multiple injuries of his own, and the Bulls weren’t the same team the rest of the way, going 19-23 to close out the season and getting eliminated in the first round of the playoffs as the No. 6 seed.

Caruso was healthier in ’22/23, but Ball’s void was felt all season long, with Chicago going 40-42 and entering the play-in tournament as the No. 10 seed. The Bulls were able to sneak past Toronto thanks to late-game heroics by Zach LaVine (after the Raptors went 18-of-36 on free throws and blew a 19-point lead), but fell in a close game to the Heat, who advanced as the No. 8 seed.

Chicago is a hard team to pin down. You would expect a club led by three offense-first multi-time All-Stars to be highly effective on that end, but after ranking 13th last season, they were just 24th in offensive rating in ’22/23. Similarly, you would not expect them to be stout defensively, yet after ranking 23rd a year ago, they had the fifth-best defense in the league this season.

The Bulls’ Offseason Plan:

Chicago has a couple great players (LaVine and DeRozan), an All-Defensive First Team guard (Caruso), and some young talent. Still, it feels like the Bulls are stuck in no-man’s land.

A big part of that is due to Ball’s balky knee, and there’s still no timetable for his return – it’s possible his career could be over. It has been a brutal series of events, because Ball is a very good two-way player. The Bulls have gone just 59-65 since he was injured – a large sample size of blah play.

Having a $20.5MM cap hit on your books (and a $21.4MM player option for ‘24/25 that he Ball will certainly exercise) for a player who might not play at all for a second consecutive season really hurts your team’s flexibility. It’s no one’s fault either. Sure, Ball had injuries in the past, but nothing like this.

The Nikola Vucevic trade was an unmitigated disaster, but the Bulls don’t have a viable way to replace the impending free agent’s production, so it feels like they need to extend him, re-sign him, or at least explore sign-and-trade scenarios. They can’t just lose him for nothing. He played well in 2022/23 after a down year in ’21/22, but he’s limited defensively and will be 33 years old at the start of next season.

That deal is why the Bulls don’t have a lottery pick in June’s draft — it landed 11th overall and will be sent to Orlando to complete the trade (they also gave up Wendell Carter and their 2021 first-round pick, which turned into Franz Wagner – ouch). Chicago also doesn’t control its second-rounder (via Denver) due to free agency gun-jumping when the team completed its sign-and-trade for Ball.

With nearly $112MM committed to just six players, and a couple of $3.4MM player options (Andre Drummond and Derrick Jones Jr.), becoming a cap room team doesn’t make sense. Even if Drummond and Jones opt out, the Bulls would only be able to create about $16MM in space. They would be better off re-signing some of their own free agents and using their $12.2MM non-taxpayer mid-level exception, but they can’t just bring back the same core roster again and expect different results.

DeRozan turns 34 years old this summer, is entering the final year of his contract, and will be eligible for a veteran extension. That makes him a logical trade candidate, but his age, expiring deal, subpar defense and well-documented playoff struggles somewhat limit his market value.

Don’t get me wrong, I have a ton of respect for DeRozan. You can tell he puts a ton of work into his craft, and he has improved tremendously throughout his career. I’m just not sure how much the Bulls could realistically get for him if they made him available – maybe a late lottery pick, matching salaries and a decent young player? That’s nothing to sneeze at, but it could take a while to translate into wins.

LaVine would have far more trade value. He’s only 28 and is under contract for four more years (the last year is a player option). The Knicks are a logical suitor, and reportedly talked to the Bulls about him ahead of the February deadline.

Do the Bulls want to trade the player they tried to build around? Do the Knicks want to trade multiple first-round picks and young players for a star who is a legitimately great shooter and scorer (they do need both of those things), but isn’t a great defender or decision-maker?

I don’t know the answer to either of those questions, but I do know Chicago’s current roster isn’t good enough to contend for a title and isn’t bad enough to land a top draft pick. The Bulls have to pick a path.

There’s nothing preventing the Bulls from trading both of their stars and starting from scratch. They could always prioritize young players instead of draft capital if they want to retool instead of doing a full-fledged rebuild. Caruso is worth keeping an eye on as well – the defensive stalwart drew a lot of interest leading up to the trade deadline and is on a team-friendly contract through ‘24/25, so he’d have quite a bit of value.

Aside from the big-picture roster questions, forward Patrick Williams will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this summer. I’d be a little surprised if a deal gets done. While Williams has a lot of upside, he’s also been very inconsistent (which is normal for a young player). I suspect there might be a gap in what his agents are looking for and what the team wants to pay.

That said, I would not trade Williams if I were running the team. He could be special if he figures it out, and even if he doesn’t, he’d still be coveted due to his two-way skill set. I’d also re-sign Coby White, who’s a restricted free agent – I think he’ll get somewhere around the mid-level exception, and he’s improved from his first couple seasons.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Carlik Jones ($1,927,896)
    • Note: Jones would receive a partial guarantee ($250K) if he’s not waived on or before the first day of the 2023/24 regular season.
  • Marko Simonovic ($1,836,096)
    • Note: Simonovic’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 7.
  • Total: $3,763,992

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Lonzo Ball (veteran)
  • Alex Caruso (veteran)
  • DeMar DeRozan (veteran)
  • Marko Simonovic (veteran)
  • Patrick Williams (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000

Note: The Bulls would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

Retweet 5 Share 0 Send via email0

2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Orlando Magic

May 18th, 2023 at 2:08pm CST by Rory Maher

The Magic have been the worst team in the NBA over the past decade, recording a 289-512 record in the last 10 seasons. They won fewer than 30 games in six of those campaigns, only finishing above .500 once (42-40), when they lost in the first round of the playoffs in 2018/19.

However, there are plenty of reasons for optimism going forward. For starters, Orlando exceeded external expectations in 2022/23, increasing its year-end win total from 22 to 34.

With two lottery picks in 2023 (sixth and 11th), an extra first-round pick via Denver in 2025, all of their own future firsts, and several extra seconds, the Magic have a nice haul of draft assets. They also have an impressive young core headlined by Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero and standout sophomore Franz Wagner.

The Magic’s Offseason Plan:

If they really wanted to, the Magic could create nearly $60MM in cap room this summer if they choose not to guarantee any of their own salaries and renounce all of their free agents and cap holds (aside from the lottery picks). That’s highly unlikely though.

The far more realistic scenario is they’ll have somewhere in the range of $25-45MM in cap room, depending on what they do with Gary Harris and Jonathan Isaac. Harris’ $13MM contract for next season is fully non-guaranteed, while Isaac — who has played just 11 games over the past three seasons — has a $17.4MM cap hit, of which only $7.6MM is guaranteed.

Markelle Fultz should be a lock to have his full $17MM salary for ‘23/24 guaranteed – he’s only owed $2MM as of now. The former first overall pick played a major role in the Magic turning their season around. After Orlando started 5-16 without him, Fultz appeared in 60 of the team’s 61 remaining games — the Magic had a 29-31 record in those 60 games, losing the lone contest he sat in April.

The young guard has been plagued by injuries throughout his six NBA seasons, only appearing in 191 total games. But he was productive when healthy in ‘22/23, averaging career highs in points (14.0), assists (5.7), rebounds (3.9), steals (1.5), and minutes per game (29.6), as well as field goal percentage (51.4%).

Fultz still struggles from long distance, converting just 31% of his three-pointers on low volume (1.5 attempts per game). However, he’s an explosive and crafty finisher around the rim, is quite accurate on mid-range jumpers (45.8%, which ranked in the 70th percentile, per DunksAndThrees.com), and is a solid defensive player.

There are three reasons why I’m discussing Fultz so extensively. One, if the Magic guarantee his salary, he’ll be eligible for an extension. Two, his outside shooting woes affect the rest of the team, because it’s the biggest roster weakness. Three, it has been floated that Orlando might pursue a veteran point guard with its cap space, with Fred VanVleet being rumored as a target.

Is VanVleet a better player than Fultz right now? Yes. He’s a far more willing – and better – outside shooter than Fultz, even if he’s coming off a highly erratic campaign that saw him post a career-low 34.2% from beyond the arc. He’s also four years older and looked a half step slower on defense in ‘22/23.

VanVleet is rumored to be seeking a contract similar to what Jrue Holiday received a couple years ago, which was $135MM over four years (incentives increased the value a bit). I like VanVleet, and he has outplayed his current contract. But I don’t think he’s worth double Fultz’s salary, particularly with Cole Anthony eligible for a rookie scale extension and Jalen Suggs still having two years left on his rookie contract.

If I were running the Magic, I would rather let those young guards and the rest of the roster continue to develop, and look to add younger wing talent and shooting via the draft and less expensive free agent targets.

Some potential free agent names of interest: Austin Reaves (restricted), Cameron Johnson (restricted), Gary Trent Jr. (player option), Donte DiVincenzo (player option) and Max Strus (unrestricted). Johnson shares positional overlap at forward with Banchero and Wagner, but I don’t think that’s a big deal – he’s great at playing off the ball and is one of the best shooters on the market (the Magic have also shown a willingness to experiment with position-less lineups).

Orlando’s only real rotation player who’s a free agent is Moritz Wagner, who had a solid season as the backup center. The Magic have his Bird rights, so they won’t have to earmark cap room or an exception to re-sign him, assuming they want him back.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Markelle Fultz ($15,000,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Fultz’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Gary Harris ($13,000,000)
    • Note: Harris’ salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Jonathan Isaac ($9,800,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee.
  • Bol Bol ($2,200,000)
    • Note: Bol’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Total: $40,000,000

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

  • None

Draft Picks

  • No. 6 overall ($7,137,840)
  • No. 11 overall ($4,952,160)
  • No. 36 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $12,090,000

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Markelle Fultz (veteran)
  • Jonathan Isaac (veteran)
  • Cole Anthony (rookie scale)
  • Chuma Okeke (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players in italics remain on the Magic’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $7,609,000
Retweet 3 Share 0 Send via email0

2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Washington Wizards

May 16th, 2023 at 2:49pm CST by Rory Maher

The Wizards haven’t had a 50-win season since 1978/79, when they lost in the NBA Finals after winning the title the year before. In fact, they’ve only won more than 45 games twice over the lengthy period since then — both in the mid-2010s when John Wall-led teams made the Eastern Conference Semifinals a few times.

Things went about as expected in ’22/23. Washington’s over/under entering the season was 35.5 wins, and the team won exactly 35 for the second consecutive season.

There were some positive developments — Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis had career years, while Corey Kispert turned into a solid rotation player in year two — but they were mostly offset by disappointments in other areas. Bradley Beal was plagued by injuries for the second straight season and lottery pick Johnny Davis spent most of his rookie season in the G League, struggling when he did get NBA minutes.

The Wizards, who finished 22nd in the league in offense and 21st in defense, don’t really have an identity on either end of the court (they were 21st in offense and 25th in defense in ‘21/22).

Where the Wizards go from here is an open question. They don’t have the types of young players teams typically build around, nor the cache of future draft picks (they actually owe a protected first to the Knicks). Getting lucky in the draft lottery would be a good start – the Wizards have the eighth-best odds at landing the No. 1 overall pick and a 28.9% chance at a top-four selection.

The Wizards’ Offseason Plan:

What many league observers think the Wizards should do and what they actually do are often at odds. Maybe that will change when the team hires a new head of basketball operations after firing Tommy Sheppard.

Either way, it’s an important offseason for the Wizards. Kuzma has already said he plans to turn down his $13MM player option to secure a larger payday. Will Porzingis decline his $36MM option as well? Perhaps. There were reportedly “serious” talks regarding an extension a couple months ago, but that was before the front office change. It’s impossible to know how a new regime would feel about that.

Porzingis had an outstanding season, making a positive impact on both sides of the ball. He’s only 27 years old, so he’s theoretically in his prime. He has also missed extended time due to injuries throughout his career. Re-signing him is a risk, but Washington doesn’t have a ready-made replacement on its roster.

If both players decline their options and the Wizards renounce their other free agents and cap holds (except their first-round pick), they’d have about $30MM in cap room to work with. I don’t see which players they could target with that money that would be better than Kuzma and Porzingis. A sign-and-trade involving one (or both) theoretically could work if Washington wants reshuffle the deck.

Former first-round pick Deni Avdija will be eligible for a rookie scale extension as well. He has a good feel for the game and is a solid defender, but his jump shot is very erratic. Trading Rui Hachimura freed up playing time for Avdija, and he played well down the stretch. Still, it’s hard to envision any rush to extend him unless it’s a team-friendly rate.

Perhaps the biggest question facing the Wizards hasn’t changed: Is Beal a star worth building around? There are multiple seasons worth of evidence indicating the answer is no.

The issue is that he’s coming off two injury-riddled seasons and still has four years and more than $200MM left on his contract — his value is arguably at its lowest point in years. Washington would likely get pennies on the dollar in return for the veteran guard unless they find a team that thinks Beal would push it over the hump.

Would Philadelphia be interested in a Beal for Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris trade? Harris’ deal is expiring and Maxey is going to command a significant payday soon, as he’s about to enter the final season of his rookie deal. Is that enough of a return for Beal?

For some inexplicable reason, the Wizards gave Beal a full no-trade clause when he signed his contract last summer, a rarity in the NBA. So even if they find a suitable deal, he’d still have to approve it.

Locking in an expensive long-term core of Beal, Kuzma and Porzingis isn’t going to move the needle toward winning in any meaningful way. They’re all good players individually, but not good enough to be a top-three trio on a serious contender.

There are players with positive value on the roster, though they’re not going to return a haul of assets. Monte Morris and Delon Wright are quality backups that lots of teams would like to have, for example, and they’re entering the final years of their contracts.

There are no easy answers for this team. Owner Ted Leonsis hasn’t shown any appetite for a temporary tank despite the mediocre product of the past handful of years. The foundation is rickety, and the Wizards haven’t had success drafting in the 9-15 range over that span.

I don’t envy the person who takes over the front office of this franchise. Things can change quickly in the NBA, but it’s hard to see how the Wizards get significantly better without getting even worse than they have been lately.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jordan Goodwin ($1,627,896)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Goodwin’s partial guarantee increases to $963,948 if he isn’t waived on or before September 1.
  • Total: $1,627,896

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 8 overall ($5,969,400)
    • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
  • No. 42 overall (no cap hold)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 41 if the Thunder end up with a higher first-round pick than the Bulls via the lottery.
  • No. 57 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $5,969,400

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Kristaps Porzingis (veteran)
  • Kyle Kuzma (veteran)
  • Monte Morris (veteran)
  • Isaiah Todd (veteran)
  • Deni Avdija (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players in italics remain on the Wizards’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $6,263,188

Note: The Wizards would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron. If the Wizards go under the cap to use room, they’ll lose access to all of these exceptions and will gain access to the room exception.

Retweet 5 Share 0 Send via email0
Load More Posts