As a result of the Rockets’ win over the Warriors on Friday night, we have two Game 7 matchups on tap for this weekend. Golden State will head to Houston as the Western Conference’s No. 2 and No. 7 seeds battle it out on Sunday for the right to face the Timberwolves in conference semifinals.
But before we get that last showdown between the Rockets and Warriors, we’ll get another Western Conference Game 7, with the Nuggets hosting the Clippers on Saturday for the right to face the Thunder in round two.
The first-round series between the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds in the West has been a back-and-forth affair. After narrowly squeaking past the Clippers in overtime in Game 1, the Nuggets dropped two games in a row, losing Game 3 by 34 points in Los Angeles. The Clippers looked like the heavy favorites at that point, but Denver bounced back with two consecutive wins to reclaim a 3-2 lead before L.A. evened things up with a 111-105 home win on Thursday.
Nikola Jokic has been his usual dominant self for the Nuggets, averaging a triple-double through the team’s first six playoff games and making 50.9% of his shots, including 44.8% of his three-pointers. Jamal Murray has been reliable too, contributing 24.0 points and 6.5 assists with a .482/.432/.938 shooting line.
But Denver lacks depth and its supporting cast has been hit and miss. Starting forward Michael Porter Jr. has been held to seven points or fewer in three separate games, while Christian Braun – a Most Improved Player candidate who averaged 15.4 PPG with a .397 3PT% during the regular season – has seen his postseason marks drop to 11.2 PPG with a .250 3PT%.
While Russell Westbrook has given the Nuggets some good minutes off the bench, they haven’t gotten much from their other reserves — in Denver’s three losses, the non-Westbrook bench players scored a total of 15 points in 95 combined minutes.
The Clippers, meanwhile, have gotten a big boost from a healthy Kawhi Leonard, who has frequently showed the form that helped him earn Finals MVP awards earlier in his career with the Spurs and Raptors. Leonard has averaged 25.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game on .545/.394/.741 shooting.
Los Angeles’ other star, James Harden, has been less consistent. After a 32-point outing in Game 1, he averaged 16.0 points per game on 41.2% shooting through the next four contests before bouncing back with a 28-point showing in Game 6.
The Clippers have gotten what they’ve needed from center Ivica Zubac and swingman Norman Powell, but have had to experiment to find other effective combinations and lineups to complement their top four players. As we detailed earlier on Friday, head coach Tyronn Lue played starting guard Kris Dunn for just 10 minutes and gave Ben Simmons his first DNP-CD of the series in Game 6 in order to improving the club’s offensive spacing.
The change was an effective one — veteran forward Nicolas Batum played a series-high 34 minutes and the Clippers were a +11 when he was on the court. Veteran wings Derrick Jones and Bogdan Bogdanovic also give the team good minutes off the bench.
The oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag currently list the Nuggets as 1.5-point favorites for Saturday’s deciding game, but that’s likely more about the home-court factor than a belief that Denver is the legitimately better team. The Nuggets have a strong track record in the mile-high elevation at Ball Arena, while the Clippers had a 20-21 regular season road record and have lost two of three games in Denver this series.
We want to know what you think. Are you picking the Nuggets or the Clippers to win on Saturday and advance to round two? Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your predictions and thoughts!
Nice write up. So many first round heavyweight matchups. Means round two will be even better!
I have been wrong about the Clippers all year. Have never liked Harden another OneWay player. I’ll admit he’s had a good year. No way they are winning in Denver. I hope Jokic goes for 50 with a triple double.
Harden has an exaggerated reputation for choking but Leonard is clutch. This is also Jokìc’s first playoff series as a head coach so Lue should have the advantage there. Who knows though? Denver has home court and Jokìc is always two steps ahead, maybe he’ll see adjustments that other coaches wouldn’t.
Like the Warriors-Rockets series, this will likely come down to officiating.
If the Nuggets only get 9 free throws like in game 6, the Clippers will move on. If it’s relatively balanced like in games 4 and 5, Nuggets win.
The fewer-turnovers team has apparently won each of the first 6 between Rockets-Dubs.
Depends on how much help Jokic gets. The less he scores, the better they are.
Porter Jr. is due for a big game.
Every day that LAC is healthy is truly a miracle. However, as long as they are healthy, they are the best team in the West. So my money is on the Clippers.
Nuggets just don’t have enough help around Murray and Jokic