A number of league insiders who spoke to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst and Tim Bontemps about what will happen in the NBA in 2026 believe that this will be the year the Giannis Antetokounmpo saga in Milwaukee reaches an inflection point, according to Bontemps.
“The rubber is going to finally hit the road, one way or the other,” one Western Conference executive said.
However, several of those sources believe the situation will carry over into the offseason, with one Eastern Conference scout suggesting that the Bucks star would have “maximum leverage” if he waits until the summer to request a trade.
“They aren’t trading him in-season,” a Western scout predicted.
In fact, many of the executives surveyed by Bontemps are anticipating a relatively quiet trade deadline, with resolutions on players like Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Zach LaVine, and Trae Young potentially not coming until June or July (or later). One Eastern Conference exec suggested that a “crazy summer” could be on tap if February’s deadline ends up being somewhat uneventful.
“All these guys are going to be stuck where they are (at the trade deadline),” another Western Conference exec said. “I don’t think it will be as busy as people think, and I don’t think the available players will be that good.”
Here’s more from Windhorst and Bontemps:
- According to Windhorst, league executives believe there will be three paths available to LeBron James after this season: Re-sign with the Lakers at a reduced salary, join another team in free agency, or retire. In other words, they don’t expect Los Angeles to continue paying the four-time MVP maximum or near-max money. While James is no longer performing at his peak level, he would continue to be a coveted player if he decides not to retire, one head coach said: “LeBron is still averaging 20 points and shooting 50%. You just have to find the right situation.”
- The NBA is reportedly weighing rule changes to further disincentivize tanking, and ESPN’s sources expect the outcry for changes to grow as the season progresses, Windhorst writes. “This is only going to get louder,” an Eastern Conference executive said. “By the spring, I think one out of every three games we’re going to play is going to be against a team that’s tanking.”
- While commissioner Adam Silver has said the NBA will make a decision on expansion in 2026, stakeholders who have been working with the league on possible domestic expansion and a new European league are skeptical that the NBA would be able to move forward on both endeavors simultaneously, says Windhorst. The NBA reportedly hopes to launch its European league in the fall of 2027, so perhaps the NBA would aim to expand a year or two after that.
LBJ is like the wine, better with ageđˇBTW. age is so overrated until notâŚ
Serious commentary about how 1/3 of the league is tanking and then immediately talking about expansion is quite an interesting dichotomy of ideas for a singular association.
LeBron will take it as being unwanted to sign for less money so most likely he is gone. If he signs for less money its to the Cavs.
LeBron will sign with whichever team pays him the most money. He already made this clear when he saw how much soccer stars were getting paid by Persian Gilf league teams. He wants the biggest payday. My prediction, one of the teams with cap space this offseason will shock everyone by signing him to a max contract.
Yes, and most athletes sign with the team that offers them the least money.
No one will have that sort of cap space.
Never going to happen
Lebron should sign for the min in Cleveland, win a title and retire.
Don’t want tanking? Give the best odds to the best teams that just miss the playoffs. Teams will try to make the playoffs and if they don’t, then they get rewarded with the best odds. You may end up with a Dallas situation from a few years ago where they sat everyone the last couple of games so they could keep their pick, but you will have teams trying through 95% of the season, which is more than you have now.
Again, that goes against the general point of a reverse order draft, where you attempt to balance the talent by having the worst teams get the best young talent.
But otherwise, I agree with the principle of incentivizing teams to try to win.. my thought was to make certain cap concessions say for teams winning 30 or more games, or 30 to 40 wins.
The other no brainers are that you cannot get a top 5 pick in consecutive years.
And limit the draft lottery to the bottom 8 or 10. Thereâs no need for the 11-14 teams which are play-in teams to be in the draft lottery.
Hope the âNew Decisionâ will be to move on and start building around Luca asap!
NBA Europe will be an utter joke and close down within 5 years of existence. It would be like if someone started an NBA competitor here.
I agree the rubber has met the road but it will take till the summer for a G trade
Reasoning- He will have a short list and those teams don’t have the assets today to swing it
Conclusion – If Knicks don’t win it all he will be a Knick next year with KAT going to 3rd team. I like Phx currently to be that 3rd team
The Question remains~
Will Mil actually try to use up assets this year to persuade him to continue the marriage?
Like all good marriages communication should be a must. I don’t think Giannis is playing ball here currently trying to protect his own image.
But if they do use assets and G does bounce in the summer No Pr team will be able to cover up the rubble he left. I think the Mil fans deserve honesty here even if it comes behind doors to Mil front office and they never even get to hear about it. Thier future depends on it
I agree with all this. Particularly Giannis to the NYK, assuming his (reported) preference for the NYK is legitimate, and it holds until the summer. If the NYK don’t win it all, the NYK FO, deal junkies to start with, almost have to pursue Giannis hard, and since he’s going into his expiration year, his preferences will matter more than some past stars.
Yea its a no brainer for Knicks
If a Phx gets a tad spicy on Kat perhaps Mil nets 80% ~ 85% of Giannis true Value which all in all is about the ceiling of what they could get for him today neways
Its all played out pretty transparent
Giannis just needs to learn the No comment response here regarding his future. He could have adapted a vague vanilla one years ago and just copy pasted it and we would have all been fine. Maybe a lesson for the future stars
Really, “further disincentivize” tanking? LOL. The incentives, and thus the tanking, are at all time high levels, both in terms of the number of teams doing it, and the length to time they do it. Most of what they’re discussing will increase tanking (just like their prior “attempts”). Just like their prior attempts, these things will increase tanking. Despite what Yogi said, moving first base back a few feet won’t eliminate all those close plays. Of course, Yogi (or whoever said he said it) intended it as a joke. Silver just is a joke.
Saw an article on Yahoo Sports that suggested eliminating the draft and establishing rookie free agency. They suggest a small cap exception for the worst teams–supposedly too small to encourage tanking but enough to help with negotiations. Sounds crazy, but they offer one redeeming possibility: guys that want more playing time and believe they can be a leader might like a small market or struggling team.
Not sure that would work, but I like the out-of-the-box thinking.