Despite Critics, Lottery Reform Plan Seems Headed For Approval

The NBA’s Board of Governors appears to be headed toward approving the “3-2-1” lottery reform plan later this month, but Sam Amick and Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic found plenty of critics of the proposal in their conversations with executives at the draft combine.

Several of them believe the idea of scrapping the current lottery system and replacing it with something radically different is an “overreaction” to the circumstances caused by the high level of talent in this year’s draft. They note that once any incentive to tank is removed from all 30 teams, those who finish at the very bottom will truly be the worst in the league. However, they’ll be penalized by the new system, which includes a “relegation tier” that reduces their number of ping pong balls and gives them the same chance of landing the top pick as the ninth and 10th seeds in the play-in tournament.

Getting lucky in the lottery is viewed as the best way for bad teams to pick up high-level talent, and many executives believe the new system will doom those teams to a longer time at the bottom of the league.

“Teams that aren’t trying to tank will then get penalized,” one front office staffer said.

League sources told Amick and Vorkunov that one team raised that concern at a general managers’ meeting last Monday. However, their sources add that there has otherwise been “minimal pushback” on the proposal during a series of meetings held by the league. They also cite a “feeling of resignation” by executives who don’t like the new system but believe its approval is inevitable. At least 23 of the 30 governors must support the proposal for it to be approved, and it would take effect with next year’s draft.

“They’re hellbent on doing this,” an assistant general manager told the authors.

Some details on the proposal are still being finalized, but it would expand the lottery from 14 to 16 teams, with 37 balls being drawn to determine the top 16 picks. The teams with the three worst records would get two balls rather than three due to relegation, but they wouldn’t be able to slip lower than the 12th pick. League sources tell Amick and Vorkunov that the floor for those teams continues to be discussed, with some wanting to make it higher.

The next seven teams in the standings would get three balls apiece, while the teams that finish ninth and 10th in the play-in tournament would get two and the losers of the 7-8 game would each get one. The best odds of landing the No. 1 pick would be reduced to 8.1%, down from the current 14%.

Some executives cited “unintended consequences” if the new system is adopted, which include making picks throughout the top 16 more valuable because of the flatter lottery odds. There’s concern that it might make future draft picks more difficult to acquire in trades. Another assistant GM complained that it would give rebuilding teams less control over the moves that they’re able to make.

Amick and Vorkunov add that some executives are frustrated that the new system will be implemented so suddenly, causing it to affect the value of first-round picks that have already been acquired through trades. Others believe fines, like the ones handed out to the Jazz and Pacers in February, are enough to discourage tanking without major changes.

That aspect will be increased with the new system, as the authors report that general managers were told commissioner Adam Silver will be given “an added ability to reduce teams’ lottery odds and/or modify teams’ draft positions” if he deems there are obvious tanking infractions.

The expectation is that the new system will be in place when teams gather for next year’s lottery, according to Amick and Vorkunov. Sources also tell them that the actual drawing may be televised live, rather than just the unveiling of envelopes.