The Pistons have held the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference since early November and have maintained a firm grip on that spot. At 42-14, Detroit has a 4.5-game lead on its next-closest competitor in the conference and has a 10-2 record against the other Eastern teams currently in playoff (ie. top-six) position.
However, there are still questions about the Pistons’ ability to win three consecutive playoff series and represent the Eastern Conference in the 2026 NBA Finals. A relative lack of postseason experience is one potential concern. Detroit’s first-round exit last spring represented the team’s first playoff appearance since 2019 and the only taste of the postseason that young stars like Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren have gotten so far.
A lack of offensive firepower is another possible red flag for the Pistons. The team leans heavily on Cunningham for scoring and shot creation and lacks reliable play-makers and knock-down shooters alongside him. Detroit ranks 28th in the NBA in three-point makes per game (11.1).
Monday’s loss to San Antonio exposed those flaws and cast a spotlight on Trajan Langdon‘s decision not to be more aggressive at this month’s trade deadline, notes Omari Sankofa II of The Detroit Free Press (subscription required). The Pistons’ only real pre-deadline acquisition was wing Kevin Huerter, who has struggled with his outside shot this season and fallen out of the team’s rotation in the past three games.
If not the Pistons, who else could come out of the East this spring? Well, the Celtics hold the No. 2 seed despite being without Jayson Tatum all season as the All-NBA forward recovers from an Achilles tear. With Jaylen Brown taking on the primary role, Boston has built the best offense in the conference without its usual leading scorer, writes Esfandiar Baraheni of The Athletic, posting a 120.0 offensive rating that exceeds the team’s mark from 2024/25.
Still, there’s no guarantee Tatum will be able to return to action before the end of this season, and the Celtics would miss him more in big postseason moments than they do in a typical regular season game. And even if Tatum does make it back in the coming weeks, is it realistic to expect him to be back to his old self in time for the playoffs after such a lengthy layoff and challenging rehab process?
The Knicks, who have the NBA’s third-best offensive rating, hold the No. 3 spot in the East at 37-22 and are coming off a conference finals appearance in 2025. New York is a good team, but under new head coach Mike Brown, the club has also looked “like a world beater one quarter and a bottom-feeder the next,” according to James L. Edwards III of The Athletic, who suggests we may not know for sure until the playoffs how good the Knicks really are.
Interestingly, none of those three teams are currently the betting favorites to win the East, according to most sportsbooks. That honor belongs to the Cavaliers, who have looked resurgent in recent weeks after a shaky start to the season and have pulled into a tie with the Knicks at 37-22. The Cavs, winners of 13 of their past 15 games, have “renewed confidence” following the deadline acquisition of James Harden, head coach Kenny Atkinson said following his team’s victory over New York on Tuesday (story via Jamal Collier of ESPN).
“We understand we’re a better team,” Atkinson said. “That spirit, that confidence for some strange reason, it makes you play harder, compete harder, compete harder defensively. I felt like we were kind of missing that edge, that belief. I feel like we’re regaining that. A lot of it has to do with who we added in the trade.”
The Cavaliers were widely viewed as a favorite to win the East in the fall after winning 64 regular season games in 2024/25 and being derailed by injuries in the playoffs. Enthusiasm about their ceiling waned as they hovered around .500 through Christmas, but it has been building again as of late. For what it’s worth, the Cavs are also the only one of the East’s projected playoff teams that doesn’t have a losing record against the Pistons so far in ’25/26 — the teams have split their two matchups.
The Raptors, Sixers, Magic, Heat, Hawks, and Hornets are all lurking in the Eastern Conference playoff picture as potential threats.
A Philadelphia team that has Joel Embiid and Paul George wouldn’t be an easy out. The same is true of a fully healthy Orlando squad, though we haven’t seen that very often in the past year or two. Charlotte still has a ways to go to even make the playoffs and would be an underdog in a first-round series, but few teams have been hotter in recent weeks — since January 22, only the Cavs (12-2) and Spurs (11-2) have a better record than the Hornets (12-3).
We want to know what you think. Which team do you expect to represent the East in the NBA Finals this season? Is Tatum’s potential return the wild card that could swing your decision or are there other factors you think will ultimately determine how the postseason plays out in the Eastern Conference?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!
A James Harden team is the betting favorite come playoff time?
I don’t gamble, but maybe I should.
First learn a little about statistical probability. Harden is fantastic, and enough of a no-show in playoffs that his bad rep precedes him. It is as likely that Harden will regress toward the mean, not further cement a bad reputation.
Understanding the “why” of Harden being ineffective in the playoffs is important context here.
He plays an Isolation style that is effective against regular season slop, and is less effective against higher quality opponents.
When the off-dribble shots he creates are falling there’s little a team or defense can do. The catch is it’s high variance and isn’t sustainable. The definition of Feast or Famine, or All or Nothing. He is not known for regressing to the mean.
Harden’s 2023 series vs Boston is his playoff performance in a nutshell.
Three Wins: 37-61 FG, 14-25 3PT (61 FG%, 56 3PT%)
Four Losses: 12-55 FG, 3-24 3PT (22 FG%, 13 3PT%)
We had similar patterns in 2024, and 2025, though not as extreme as that.
Had Cade winning MVP before the season. Detroit is a great team, but I feel like they long grueling schedule will burn them out this year. Cavs, I don’t trust Harden to do anything in April/May. C’s are overachieving and Brown has been a top 5 player this year, but don’t believe they have enough without Tatum. Knicks are the Knicks, that should tell you everything. Raptors are a nice story. 76ers haven’t sniffed anything since 2001 and I don’t plan they’ll start in 2026. I think it’ll be all about matchups at the end of the day. Pistons and Celtics in the East Finals. Cavs need Mobley not Harden to advance in June. He’s the key factor on that team.
Celtics “overachieving” is because of their system though. Much like OKC they just beat other teams regardless of who suits up. Baylor Scheierman? Hugo Gonzalez? Jordan Walsh? It doesn’t matter. They’re all maximized and everyone knows their role.
Detroit will end up wishing they had someone like Derrick White or Payton Pritchard next to Cade when they realize they can’t play Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland in a high-level playoff series.
How you feel or believe about a basket of matters is not data rich information, it’s chatter. Comments like “The Knicks are the Knicks and that should tell you everything” are wannbe pundit bs. That is, if you turn out to be right it would be luck, not wisdom. “At the end of the day” is cliche’. You SOUND smooth & confident, so what?
If Tatum comes back, it’ll be the Celtics pretty easily. If not, it’ll be the Pistons and Knicks dueling it out in the ECF, and the series can go either way.
100%.
Knicks are not winning bro. Seen too much. They will expose Bronson and Kat on defense. Detroit or Boston ( Tatum comes back) if not Cleveland will destroy the Knicks. Knicks will not be able to guard Mitchell and harden in the pick and roll. Mobley will shut kat down. A shrouder kills the kicks every time
Tatum is not going to be 100% when he returns. He tore his Achilles in May. There would be nothing “easy” about it.
Tatum isn’t going to be throwing himself around with reckless abandon or playing 30 MPG. It’s equivalent to Quentin Grimes joining the Celtics. Sure he’d be a nice addition but they hardly become locks.
He would not need to be 100%. Just his presence on the court, the attention he would command, and the numbers he could drop in 15-20 mins on the court. The C’s are 38-20, 2nd in the East, and look competitive without their best player. They’re clearly favorites if they get Tatum back. What does Grimes have to do with anything? That was a weird shout lol
Grimes is the “numbers” and production the Celtics could realistically expect from Tatum 10 months after a Torn Achilles.
A 3 & D wing (but not a sharpshooter) who can occasionally flash some creation in a sixth man level of role. That’s what you’re getting in a perfect world, if he embraces a smaller role.
If Tatum comes back playing like Sixers Paul George, the Celtics aren’t the favorites lol.
How exactly are you coming to the conclusion that he will be specifically Quentin Grimes level production? It’s all speculation. Tatum could come back and be Tatum. Then the Celtics are favorites, like I said. If he comes back as a 6th man, he will be the focal point of a bench offense that isn’t ranked in the top half of the teams in the NBA right now, instantly making the team deeper and better. The chemistry he already has with most of the team is valuable, compared to just throwing a random players name out there as well.
“Tatum could come back and be Tatum”
Kevin Durant said he didn’t feel like himself coming off his Torn Achilles until month 18.
You’re asking a player to come back in HALF that time, TWO MONTHS EARLY from a devastating injury and anticipating no drop off in his level of play. The world isn’t gumdrops and rainbows. This isn’t a children’s fairy tale.
Not only would he be dealing with the physical challenges & limitations of returning early, he would also be learning a new role on the fly, in an extremely high pressure environment (playoff games).
You can live in fantasy land if you want. I would prefer to keep my expectations realistic.
“Tatum will put up Quentin Grimes numbers upon return”.
Tatum could come back and be Tatum”.
All speculation. That’s my point.
The pairing of Kat and Brunson is bad. They have zero effective plays drawn between them. No pick and roll, no pick and pop, and no flare screens. Two ball dominant chubby cakes. At least Brunson tries hard on defense though. Knicks peaked at the cup.
Celtics aren’t going to beat the pistons with or without a healthy Tatum, because Cade Cunningham is a far better two way player than Jaylen Brown, and both teams will lean on them heavily. Cade just has a far better ball handle, decision making, and pick and roll options.
Celtics will be hard to beat though with Derrick white and Pritchard playing out of their minds, but I think the ball will stick in browns hands too much and for too long.
I like both guys and I agree that I’d take Cunningham over JB. Obviously Detroit’s bigs are better, but the C’s shooting is much better. I think that would be the most interesting matchup stylistically since it would be near polar opposites. Coaching and experience does matter though although that can be overcome. I like what the Pistons are doing. Cavs are looking good, but I don’t trust them, but I trust them more than the Knicks and think they just have a better vibe right now. Celtics without Tatum are still dangerous, with Tatum could take them up a notch, but Detroit, Celtics is the series I want to see. I don’t think an East team wins it all unless there’s a shocking winner out of the West. Spurs are young, but I like their versatility. thunder are the Thunder. Nuggets have the best player and you’d think they’d be healthy if they make it that far. I really only think three teams can truly make it from both conferences, but injuries happen unfortunately. I’m rooting for the Sixers bc Idk why I like Embiid, I guess I just feel bad for his failing health and I like their young guys. I hate injuries even to players I loathe minus maybe when Tom Brady was out that one year haha.
Celtics as long Tatum don’t come back
I get it, but Joe Mazzula is like a new guy this season, more focused, more technical, more detailed, more disciplinarian. It should be doable for him to control Tatum’s bad habits and pull him if he is hurting the team. It’s a useful test of both the coach & Tatum.
I pick the Cavs to win the East
Why?
Tyson and Merrill are the best 3-point combo shooters in the nba
I don’t have a lot of confidence in a Donovan Mitchell lead playoff team. Too many 5-17 postseason performances and hero ball. Add James Harden to the mix and they are second round exit guaranteed.
@Gary- If they match up with Detroit in the 2nd round, it would be really interesting to see if their regular season success against them translates to the postseason. I still have my doubts about the Pistons’ depth and team 3PT shooting.
Totally agree!
Love Mitchell, but playoff Mitchell is a hot mess of won’t pass (fwiw – the same trend is true of his 4th quarters when playing against good teams on TV – numbers don’t lie!)
I think this Cavs team will be terrors the rest of the season and be a shock 1st or 2nd round out in a short series that makes everyone think they need to blow up the team (and they wouldn’t be wrong!)
fwiw – Mitchell’s +/- in the playoffs with Cle has been better than it was in Utah, but still…
Last year, went 3/11 in the 2nd to last game against IND for a -35 and then in the final game of that series, which they also lost, it was 8/25 and a -3.
GRAND Total of 1 assist over those 2 games while shooting 11/36.
Just a mess of not trying to find team mates as he did it on his own (and I get it he has the talent to do that – at times…)
…and – lifetime Playoff stats are a +/- of minus 9 on splits of 440/355/825
Part of the problem last year in the playoffs seemed to be that the Cavs had one starting caliber guard. I do think a healthy Harden will be able to take some pressure off of Mitchell and is better equipped to unlock the Cavs’ bigs than Garland ever would have been. So we’ll see. The Cavs have the best record in the NBA since January 1 (18-6).
I said watch out for Cavs. They are deeper and better. Harden is having a year. His playmaking and scoring adds a lot to Cavs. Makes other players better. Pistons have proven they are for real. Cavs and Knicks are more playoff proven. Celtics and Pistons are tough. In a 7 gm series i’ll take Knicks or Cavs.
To me biggest issue with Knicks is coach Brown. He hasn’t helped the players he was brought here to help. And relies too much on Jalen to bail his aaa out. Knicks better get their act together. Or they won’t make East Finals ….
I didn’t like the move to go to Brown as coach. I mean, he’s fine, but I don’t think it’s a dramatic ceiling changer from Thibs. It was more of a do something different to do something different thing. I don’t trust Harden come playoffs. He definitely makes his teammates better, but he does dumb sh@t in the playoffs and tries to take over when he shouldn’t. Maybe it’s different, but he has to prove me wrong.
I see Harden as more serious now. He’s at the end. He has a good opportunity here. He’s a good mix and fit on Cavs. Can’t take him for granted
Knicks over Detroit barley in a 7 game. Although if new York gives one game away they lose. Cleveland would beat new York right now
Cavs are hottest team right now. I rather see Cavs in Finals lol.
Celtics. Especially if Tatum is back. Not confident they can beat OKC but
I’d love to see Detroit, but they have to get to the eastern conference finals first. Maybe next season but they sure look good and are ahead of their timeline already.
Exactly, they’re ahead of their timeline …….. imagine, them adding a veteran/specialist, kinda like a Derrick White, Harrison Barnes, Jrue Holiday, etc ……. just to shore up that bench, give an edge during the playoffs.
I keep using rites of passage, as all teams (OKC the past few years before winning it all) go through it ……. PISTONS are on the cusp of ECF, they need a bit more talent, more trials for their young core.
But who knows, Cade might have that one more leap this season. That would be a wonder and an MVP trophy.
I think it’s the Knicks turn to grind one out. Pulling for Mike Brown to come out of the east.
I’d want youth to be served, but these PISTONS have to go through the rites of passage …. Cade, JD, etc have yet to play in bigtime playoff games, besides the need for more shooting (Red Velvet just not enough).
KNICKS, CAVS in the ECF …. slight nod to the KNICKS winning it, just because Harden is a known non-commodity in the playoffs.
I’ve been really high on the Pistons this year, but they needed to go out and get some shooting & scoring at the deadline and instead they got Kevin Huerter.
Pistons should be able to do this, I can see them beating Cavs in 6..
The other day when they played the Spurs it was like watching a future NBA finals matchup. If not this year then next year.
Duren is really impressive and Cade does what Cade does, they are coached so well.
In saying that, would not be surprised to see Cavs come out of the east. Sooner or later, Mitchell and Harden will perform in playoffs right,? Surely
NYK have the same problem they’ve had all year, no identity. Teams that win it all generally have one. No team can really win 16 games with varying styles in a single playoff season.
The shame of it is that the NYK were all about their identity for 4 years under Thibs. It’s faded under Brown, and is now close to lost. Unfortunately, it’s not the kind of thing that comes back. It’s not necessarily Brown’s fault. The FO and team leaders have to accept some blame too. Brown is more a symptom of the problem. He’s more a babysitter than a real HC. Sorry, but players only meetings don’t happen under a real HC. But he’s precisely the type of HC the FO wanted. Teams sometimes win under babysitters, but any real success a team has under one generally comes in the first year. I expect the NYK to turn it on for the playoffs, or try to. Even have some success.