As we explained on Monday following the conclusion of the NBA’s 2025/26 regular season, the results of the play-in tournament helped move the lottery standings and the 2026 draft order one step closer to being officially set.
Here’s what we know now…
Lottery teams
The lower seeds won three of this week’s six play-in games, but in the end, the teams that finished seventh and eighth in the East and West during the regular season are the ones advancing to the playoffs, with the ninth and 10th seeds having been bounced.
The only deviation from the regular season standings was the Suns and Trail Blazers flipping spots in the Western Conference as a result of Portland’s upset victory on Tuesday.
As a result, the tentative lottery standings are the same as the ones we laid out on Monday. Here’s what they look like, per Tankathon:
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| IND* | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| BKN | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| UTA | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11 | 7.5 | 27.1 | 17.9 | 2.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SAC | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11 | 2 | 18.2 | 25.5 | 8.5 | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | – |
| MEM | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.7 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
| NOP* | 6.8 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.9 | – | – | 19.8 | 35.6 | 13.8 | 1.4 | >0 | – | – | – |
| DAL | 6.7 | 7 | 7.4 | 7.8 | – | – | – | 32.9 | 31.1 | 6.6 | 0.4 | >0 | – | – |
| CHI | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | – | – | – | – | 50.8 | 25.9 | 3 | 0.1 | >0 | – |
| MIL* | 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 65.9 | 19 | 1.2 | >0 | >0 |
| GSW | 2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 77.6 | 12.6 | 0.4 | >0 |
| LAC* | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 86.1 | 6.7 | 0.1 |
| MIA | 1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 92.9 | 2.3 |
| CHA | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 97.6 |
(* Asterisks denote traded picks)
- The Pacers‘ pick will be sent to the Clippers if it’s outside the top four.
- The Jazz‘s pick will be sent to the Thunder if it’s outside the top eight.
- The most favorable of the Pelicans‘ and Bucks‘ picks will be sent to the Hawks, with Milwaukee receiving the least favorable of the two.
- The Clippers‘ pick will be sent to the Thunder.
Multiple tiebreakers will still be required before the pre-lottery draft order is locked in, since two pairs of lottery teams finished the regular season with identical records. The teams listed above in italics were tied, so the following spots in the chart could still be flipped, pending the results of random tiebreakers:
- Utah Jazz / Sacramento Kings (22-60)
- New Orleans Pelicans / Dallas Mavericks (26-56)
The Jazz and Kings will share identical odds at a top-four pick, while the winner of the Pelicans/Mavericks tiebreaker will get one extra ping pong ball in the draft lottery, giving that team the slightest possible edge at a top-four selection. The most meaningful aspect of the tiebreaker results is the fact that they set the floor for how fall a team’s pick can fall.
For instance, if Utah wins its tiebreaker with Sacramento, the most likely landing spot for the Jazz’s pick would be No. 6 overall and it would be guaranteed to land in the top eight, meaning it won’t be conveyed to the Thunder. On the other hand, if the Kings win that tiebreaker, the most likely slot for the Jazz’s pick is No. 7, and there would be a slight chance (0.6%) it could drop all the way to No. 9, in which case it would be sent to Oklahoma City.
Traded first-round picks
The play-in results also provided some clarity on certain first-round picks that were traded with protections.
Most notably, the Trail Blazers‘ playoff berth ensured that Chicago will receive Portland’s 2026 first-round pick, which featured top-14 protection. Since the Blazers had the worst regular season record of any playoff team, it’s a best-case scenario for the Bulls, who will get the 15th overall selection from Portland.
The Thunder are also now assured of receiving the Sixers‘ pick as a result of Philadelphia’s playoff berth. That pick included top-four protection, so if the 76ers had been eliminated in the play-in tournament, there would’ve been an outside shot of it moving up on lottery night and remaining in Philadelphia. Instead, it’ll convey to Oklahoma City and will be in the 16-18 range, pending a tiebreaker.
While the Thunder would’ve received the Clippers‘ first-round pick whether or not L.A. made the playoffs, it’s worth noting that the Clippers’ loss to Golden State on Wednesday means it will be a lottery selection. There’s a 7.2% chance that Oklahoma City will move into the top four with that Clippers pick, which would be a nightmare scenario for the rest of the NBA.
Playoff teams
Based on the play-in results, the draft order outside of the lottery will be as follows, pending tiebreakers:
- Chicago Bulls (from Trail Blazers)
- Memphis Grizzlies (from Magic) *
Charlotte Hornets (from Suns) *
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Sixers) * - San Antonio Spurs (from Hawks) *
Toronto Raptors * - Detroit Pistons (from Timberwolves)
- Atlanta Hawks (from Cavaliers) *
Philadelphia 76ers (from Rockets) * - Los Angeles Lakers *
New York Knicks * - Denver Nuggets
- Boston Celtics
- Minnesota Timberwolves (from Pistons)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (from Spurs)
- Dallas Mavericks (from Thunder)
It remains possible that the Grizzlies could end up with the Suns’ pick instead of the Magic’s selection, with the Hornets getting Orlando’s first-rounder in that scenario. Memphis has the right to the most favorable of the two picks, which will be determined by a tiebreaker. Each selection could land anywhere from No. 16 to No. 18.
The random tiebreakers for draft positioning are expected to be conducted on Monday. Once those tiebreakers are completed, we’ll publish a full pre-lottery order for both rounds of the 2026 draft.
Should the probability of the Bucks picking 1st be zero and thus the probability of them picking 2nd,3rd, or 4th be higher, since they can’t get the top pick due to swap rights?
Those odds are reflective of where that specific pick could land, not where the Bucks themselves will pick. There’s a scenario where that pick is first overall — it would just be the Hawks getting it rather than the Bucks (I tried to show this with the color coding, but it’s tricky to do for the Pelicans/Bucks picks since there are so many possibilities).
Thanks – I get the math could be more difficult than it is worth figuring out.
It’s certainly worthwhile for someone to figure out, but it’s beyond my math skills, that’s for sure, haha.
Shouldn’t Utah and Sacramento have the same odds for now, until the coin flip?
I see what you mean, but the “before the coin flip” odds won’t ever apply in the actual lottery, so I find it simpler to assume an outcome here.
The chart above reflects what would happen if the Jazz and Pelicans win the tiebreakers. If they Kings win, it’s easy enough to swap them in the chart with Utah. Same with Dallas and New Orleans.
I am guessing you took these odds from Tankathon? Did they mess up their chart, or is there somethiong weird going on that I don’t understand?
The odds of picks 1-4 are blended. For instance, the odds of the team that wins the 4/5 coin flip to get the first pick will be 12.5%, and the loser will be 10.5%. So you/they are showing the mid-point there of 11.5% for both. But after the top four, you and Tankathon are showing odds that are close (but don’t match exactly) to the actual odds for the eventual #4 and #5 spots.
Here is the Tankathon link: link to tankathon.com
The first four spots look like you blended them though. Is there something weird going on that I don’t understand? Your #1 pick odds for Utah and Sacramento are showing at 11.5%, but the team winnning the 4/5 coin flip will get 12.5% odds and the loser will get 10.5% (per NBA.com).
Ah, I see the confusion. No, when teams finished with tied records, they get identical top-four odds — or as close to identical as possible. Instead of No. 4 getting 125 lottery combinations and No. 5 getting 105, they’ll both get 115 (in cases where the midpoint isn’t an even number, the tiebreaker winner gets the one extra combination).
The main advantage of the tiebreaker for lottery teams is that the winner has the higher floor — the No. 4 team can’t fall further than No. 8, while No. 5 can technically fall to No. 9.
Got it now, thanks!
Hard to overstate how much I’m looking forward to lottery night on May 10. If my Hawks get anywhere in the top 8 we’re gonna get a great young player (on a great long term contract). But there’s a pretty good chance that we get a top4 pick as well & in that case I would absolutely LOVE for us to get Caleb Wilson. We had fairly good chances to land hometown heroes Dwight Howard & Anthony Edwards when they were top prospects in their class. Caleb rivals those guys as far as HOF potential in my opinion & I’d love to see him as a Hawk… link to youtube.com
Bulls with 2 first round picks and AK fired
Am I dreaminG??? (Should we dump a 1st rounder to Get Patrick Williams off the team?)
That would be the ultimate perfect trifecta, wouldn’t it? Fingers crossed it happens for you.
Well, trading Williams would mean that the new management is using their cap space and picks to upgrade their roster.
There is a competing view in which Bulls should use their space to take on bad salaries and get more picks, in which case they already have a head start with Williams.
We’ll need to see which way the new guys decide to go.