The most anticipated playoff series of the 2025/26 NBA season is set to get underway on Monday, as the defending champion Thunder take on the fast-rising Spurs to determine who will represent the Western Conference in this year’s NBA Finals.
The Thunder will enter the series as the favorites for obvious reasons. Their 64-18 record during the regular season was the best mark in the NBA, and they’re the only team not to lose a playoff game so far, having sped through the first two rounds with four-game sweeps over the Suns and Lakers.
Oklahoma City comfortably held the NBA’s top defensive rating (106.5) and net rating (+11.1) during the regular season, and they also had the league’s seventh-best offensive rating (117.6), with newly crowned back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way.
Although Gilgeous-Alexander is the head of the snake, the Thunder have one of the NBA’s deepest rosters. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams have each earned an All-Star nod in the past two seasons; Ajay Mitchell has enjoyed a breakout postseason, averaging 18.8 points per game to emerge as a go-to secondary scorer alongside SGA; guards Jared McCain and Isaiah Joe have provided additional firepower off the bench; and Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort, and Jaylin Williams have all made an impact on both ends of the court in regular rotation roles.
The Thunder were a little better than the 62-win Spurs in the regular season and have looked more dominant the playoffs so far. They also hold the experience edge over San Antonio, whose young stars are experiencing their first postseason. Still, it was hard to be any hotter than the Spurs were in the second half of the season, when they won 30 of their last 34 games. And while they’ve dropped three games in the playoffs, two of those losses came in games Victor Wembanyama left early, due either to an injury or an ejection.
Wembanyama, who finished third in MVP voting and was named Defensive Player of the Year, is the biggest reason to believe in the Spurs. He’s the NBA’s most impactful defender and rim protector by a significant margin, and San Antonio has looked unstoppable anytime he’s on the floor — the team had a +17.0 net rating during his 1,866 minutes in the regular season and has bumped that number to +21.9 in the playoffs.
But as is the case with Gilgeous-Alexander in Oklahoma City, this isn’t a one-man show. Stephon Castle has averaged 19.9 points and 6.1 assists per game during the postseason, with a .490/.440/.797 shooting line. De’Aaron Fox (18.8 PPG, 5.8 APG), Dylan Harper (13.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG), Devin Vassell (12.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG), and Julian Champagnie (10.9 PPG, .452 3PT%) have also played key roles in the first two rounds. And while Keldon Johnson has been up and down in the playoffs, he’s the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year and came up big with the Minnesota series tied at two games apiece, scoring 21 points in a Game 5 victory.
Perhaps most importantly, no team played the Thunder tougher during the regular season than the Spurs did. Because they met in the NBA Cup, the two clubs ended up facing one another five times, and San Antonio won four of those matchups, including three by double digits. Oklahoma City didn’t have a losing record against any other team this season.
Ahead of Game 1, we want to know what you think. Will the Thunder hold off the Spurs and get a chance to win a second consecutive NBA Finals, or will San Antonio knock off the defending champs and make it back to the Finals for the first time since 2014?
Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your predictions.
I had OKC repeating start of the season and not going to change it up. Spurs are a really good team. Getting JDub back is huge for them. Chet needs to play like a 2nd overall pick in order for them to advance.
OKC in 7.
FWIW: Espn had a great article today saying this is the first time since 1998 NBA Finals where two 62+ win teams during the regular season matched up against each other. Pretty historic stuff we’re about to witness in this round.