TIME Magazine’s newly minted “Athlete of the Century” and cover star LeBron James is headed for unrestricted free agency in a matter of weeks, and while it remains difficult to project his next move, there’s a widespread belief around the NBA that sticking with the Lakers would be his first choice, according to Jake Fischer and Marc Stein of The Stein Line (Substack link).

As Fischer and Stein lay out, James and his family have become “entrenched” in Los Angeles over the course of his last eight years as a Laker, and L.A. – which holds LeBron’s Bird rights – is in a better position than any other team to pay him a favorable salary, even if that number comes in below the $52.6MM he earned this past season.

Appearing on The Pat McAfee Show earlier this week (Twitter video link), ESPN’s Brian Windhorst agreed that re-signing with the Lakers appears to be the most likely outcome for James. However, both he and The Stein Line duo pointed to the Warriors as the primary threat to watch if things don’t work out in L.A.

Golden State remains “legitimately interested” in adding LeBron to its roster, according to Fischer and Stein, who suggest that the Warriors’ pitch to James may involve a plan for him to commute back and forth to some degree between Los Angeles and the Bay Area so he doesn’t have to move – or be away from – his family.

As Windhorst observes, James is close with Draymond Green and enjoyed collaborating with Stephen Curry and head coach Steve Kerr as part of Team USA at the 2024 Olympics. Still, barring a sign-and-trade agreement or a major roster overhaul, the Warriors would be limited to offering LeBron the mid-level exception, which is projected to start around $15MM.

While a reunion between James and the Cavaliers has been a popular subject of speculation, the geographical considerations of a cross-country move, along with Cleveland’s own financial limitations, make that idea look like a longer shot, per Fischer and Stein. Windhorst agrees with that assessment.

“I know that everybody loves the idea of LeBron in Cleveland, (but) Cleveland needs perimeter defense,” Windhorst said. “It would be a great story. He would definitely help them, (but) Cleveland needs interior toughness and perimeter defense. LeBron can do some of that, but I don’t know.

“Also, that would require LeBron to play for three million bucks. And I don’t want to spend his money — if he wants to play for three million, he can do it. But until I hear from (agent) Rich Paul that LeBron is ready to play for three million, I’m not going to believe it.”

Based on their current payroll situation, the Cavaliers would be limited to offering James a minimum-salary contract, which would technically be worth closer to $4MM, but that doesn’t materially change Windhorst’s point. Cleveland would have to significantly reshape its roster to be in position to make LeBron a competitive offer.

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