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Poll: Who Will Win 2026 NBA Finals?

By | at June 2, 2026 11:00 am

The Spurs and Knicks will meet in the 2026 NBA Finals in a matchup that represents a rematch of the 1999 Finals — and of this season’s NBA Cup championship. While that NBA Cup game, which took place less than six months ago, can tell us more than the ’99 series about how the next four to seven games might play out, Knicks head coach Mike Brown isn’t sure how instructive his team’s win in that December showdown will be.

“We’re the same but different team, and same with them,” Brown said on Sunday, per Ben Dickson of Newsday. “We played different guys during that Cup run. They played different guys during that Cup run. You can tell that they’ve matured as a group. You can tell we’ve matured as a group.”

Victor Wembanyama, who had recently returned from a calf strain, came off the bench and played just 25 minutes in the NBA Cup final, whereas he averaged nearly 38 minutes per game in the Western Conference finals against the Thunder. The Spurs had a +14.8 net rating in those seven contests vs. Oklahoma City when Wembanyama was on the court, and he’ll be the biggest puzzle for the Knicks to solve in the Finals.

As one Western Conference executive who spoke to Tim Bontemps of ESPN points out, the Knicks may be a little better equipped than the Thunder to solve the Spurs’ defense, since they’re a stronger outside shooting team and rely less on driving to the basket. In particular, Karl-Anthony Towns‘ ability to hit three-pointers could be a key for a New York team looking to space the floor and move Wembanyama away from the rim.

“I think having (Towns) out there spacing will help,” a Western Conference scout told Bontemps. “He’s a good enough shooter to be respected.”

Still, the Knicks will have some matchup issues to figure out on the other end of the court, as Bontemps details. While there’s an expectation that OG Anunoby will get the primary defensive assignment on Wembanyama, with Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart available to help out, it’s unclear which players Towns and Jalen Brunson will defend.

The Spurs’ primary options alongside Wemby, including De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, and Devin Vassell, are capable ball-handlers and shooters, so hiding weaker defenders won’t be easy for the Knicks, who were able to put Brunson on Dean Wade during the Eastern Conference finals.

“How will they handle cross matches here? Brunson is great, but Castle and Harper are much bigger and stronger than him,” one Western Conference assistant coach said to Bontemps. “They’re not easy matchups for (Brunson) to contain.”

“I don’t know where you put Towns,” an Eastern Conference scout told ESPN. “Maybe on Castle? But he’s on a heater, and you can’t assume he’s going to miss at this point. And I really don’t know how they hide Jalen.”

As John Hollinger of The Athletic writes, the Knicks have been on a historic tear in the playoffs, setting a record for the biggest margin of victory over their past 11 games after falling behind 2-1 in the first round against Atlanta.

Still, it’s not as if the Spurs are scuffling entering the Finals. After finishing the regular season on a 30-4 run, they went 8-3 against Portland and Minnesota and then knocked off a Thunder team that was widely expected to repeat as champions. According to Hollinger, San Antonio has won 39 of its last 44 games in which Wembanyama has played at least 20 minutes.

Mitchell Robinson‘s finger injury will be an X-factor to watch over the course of the series. Reporting after he underwent surgery last week indicated that he planned to play in Game 1, but it remains to be seen whether or not that will be possible.

The Spurs are considered by oddmakers to be the solid favorites to win the series (their moneyline is generally in the range of -185 to -205), but Hollinger believes those odds are overstating the likelihood that San Antonio wins the series. While his pick is Spurs in seven, he says he wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Knicks pull it out.

We want to know what you think. Do you expect the Knicks to win their first NBA championship since 1973, or will Wembanyama and the young Spurs break through for a title in their first playoff appearance?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your predictions!

Who will win the 2026 NBA Finals?

  • San Antonio Spurs 61% (987)
  • New York Knicks 39% (623)

Total votes: 1,610

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