2014 Free Agent Power Rankings
There are no changes to the top 10 players on the Hoops Rumors 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings a month after the debut edition, but the order is shuffled. Gordon Hayward and Dwyane Wade jumped up two spaces apiece, while Lance Stephenson was the most significant tumbler, falling from seventh to 10th. The regular season is nearing an end, meaning there’s limited time for guys on non-playoff teams like Hayward and Greg Monroe to state their cases. Still, money is often earned and lost in the playoffs, so there will be much at stake in the weeks ahead for many on this list.
We’ll be ranking the best of the 2014 free agents on a regular basis from now until free agency begins in July. Here’s our latest look:
- LeBron James — The four-time MVP is running out of time to earn his fifth such award, after a March that perhaps met his lofty standards but certainly didn’t exceed them. Still, the Heat find themselves atop the Eastern Conference standings for the first time all season today, and if a three-peat is on the offing, it’d be especially hard to see James leaving Miami with the chance of four in a row looming.
- Carmelo Anthony — The Bulls and Rockets appear to be ‘Melo’s top alternatives to re-signing with the Knicks, though it appears New York’s decision to hire Phil Jackson as team president has given the star forward a boost of enthusiasm about sticking around.
- Chris Bosh — If Bosh’s one-word answer to a true-false question is to be believed, he and LeBron will be back in Miami next season. Most league insiders reportedly feel as though all three Heat stars will opt out and hit free agency, only to re-sign with Miami.
- Eric Bledsoe — The point guard returned to the lineup this month, and while his scoring and shooting percentage are down, his rebounds are up. Perhaps most importantly, the Suns are 8-3 since his return. The Suns plan to match any offer for their restricted free agent, but he seems in line for the maximum salary.
- Greg Monroe — So much depends on who’s making basketball decisions for the Pistons come July, as I wrote when I examined the 23-year-old’s free agent stock. Detroit has fallen out of playoff contention, but Monroe had his best month of the season in March, averaging 16.8 points and 10.4 rebounds per game.
- Gordon Hayward — Hayward likes Salt Lake City, which is a plus for him, since the Jazz have the power to match any offer. The swingman will stay clear of negotiations and leave them to the Jazz and agent Mark Bartelstein, who can point to Hayward’s improved shooting down the stretch if he keeps up his March performance in the season’s final two weeks.
- Dwyane Wade — He’ll likely do as the other Heat stars do, which indicates that he’ll remain with the Heat, the only NBA team he’s ever played for. Wade is still capable of dominance, as his 11 for 12 shooting night in his hometown of Chicago this month proved.
- Luol Deng — The small forward appears to be counting the days until he can leave Cleveland, though there’s still an outside chance the Cavs will make the playoffs and keep Deng in their uniform a little bit longer. Deng’s numbers still haven’t returned to their Chicago levels since the midseason trade that took him from the Bulls.
- Zach Randolph — Z-Bo’s best shooting month of the season coincided with a 12-5 record for the Grizzlies, who are making a late season push for the playoffs. Randolph has perhaps more to gain from a strong postseason than anyone. If he can prove he’s still a beast inside at age 32, he can opt out and sign another lucrative, long-term deal.
- Lance Stephenson — The fourth-year shooting guard’s penchant for sins of aggression, like the technical foul that prompted his ejection for the stretch run of a key game against the Heat in March, might be his most glaring flaw. His no-holds barred attitude is also one of his greatest strengths, and GMs will have to weigh the nebulous factors of psychology and intangibles when they consider Stephenson. March has been his worst month, just as its been for the entire Pacers team.
Dirk Nowitzki has a strong chance to sneak into the top 10 next time, especially if the Mavs make the playoffs and Stephenson and the Pacers can’t turn it around. Kyle Lowry‘s making a case for himself, too, although his assists were down and his turnovers were up in March.
Note: I’m not listing players under team control for 2014/15, like Tony Parker, who has a partially guaranteed contract.
Eastern Rumors: Jerebko, Hawks, Young
Jonas Jerebko has seen an uptick in minutes under Pistons interim coach John Loyer, notes Brendan Savage of MLive, who suggests that the identity of the team’s coach for 2014/15 will weigh heavily as Jerebko decides whether to opt in. He has a $4.5MM player option for next season, but I’d be surprised if he turned that money down regardless of who’s coaching. Here’s more from the Eastern Conference:
- The recent poor play of the Hawks has put their chances of a playoff berth in jeopardy, but injuries have had much to do with that. GM Danny Ferry praised his roster and likes the way the team is positioned for future seasons, as he tells USA Today’s Jeff Zillgitt.
- Thaddeus Young seemed to want out of Philadelphia at one point this season, but he sees the team’s decision to keep him and anoint him the leader of a young Sixers team as a sign of respect, observes Bob Cooney of the Philadelphia Daily News.
- Udonis Haslem, who has a player option for next season, has been caught off guard by his lack of minutes with the Heat this season, as he tells Shams Charania of RealGM.
Johnny O’Bryant III Declares For NBA Draft
LSU junior Johnny O’Bryant III declared his intent to enter the NBA draft in a press conference today, tweets Matthew Harris of The Advocate. Steve and Alyssa Schneider of WAFB-TV in Baton Rouge originally reported the news. O’Bryant is the 65th-best prospect in Jonathan Givony’s DraftExpress rankings but just No. 101 with Chad Ford of ESPN.com.
The 6’9″ 20-year-old appears to be primarily suited to play power forward as a pro, and he cut down on an occasional tendency to wander outside his range this season, attempting just a pair of three-point shots. The Mississippi native averaged 15.4 points and 7.7 rebounds. He suffered from bouts of inconsistency, scoring 25 points against Vanderbilt and just five against Georgia two nights later, though he saw 18 shots in the first game and just eight in the second.
LSU’s season ended with a loss to SMU in the second round of the NIT. O’Bryant has until April 15th to decide whether to return to the Tigers for his senior season.
Mavs Want To Re-Sign Vince Carter
Samuel Dalembert apparently isn’t the only member of the Mavs the team intends to bring back next season, as GM Donnie Nelson says the club is interested in re-signing Vince Carter, observes Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News. Carter, a free agent at season’s end, said last week that he hoped to return and that he felt he’s made his case to do so, and it seems the team agrees.
“The feeling is absolutely mutual,” Nelson said. “When you’ve got that kind of veteran leadership, we’re a better team. It’s better for the younger guys. Those are the kind of guys you want in that locker room carrying that baton and eventually passing it along.”
Just how anxious the Mavs are to retain the 37-year-old remains to be seen. Nelson says Carter has exceeded the value of the three-year, $9.27MM contract he signed with the team in 2011, pointing to the diversification of his game. Carter has taken 46.1% of his shots from behind the arc the past two seasons, more than ever before, and he’s nailed 40% of them.
The Mavs will have Carter’s Bird rights, so they have plenty of flexibility in how much they can dole out to him. Dallas has slightly more than $30MM in commitments for next season, a number that includes Dalembert’s full salary but not a new contract for Dirk Nowitzki. Carter could be an attractive option for taxpaying teams with a focus on winning now, as he remains a productive sixth man despite his advanced age and seems a fit for the taxpayer’s mid-level exception, which Dallas used to sign him three years ago.
Carter could make a starting salary of $3.278MM on that exception, which calls for deals of up to three years in length. That could net the Kurt Schoeppler client more than $10MM in total. I think most teams, including Dallas, would make a portion of that amount non-guaranteed, since he’d be 40 by the end of such a deal, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Mavs use some of their cap space to bring the salaries up a touch and give themselves a financial advantage.
Pacific Notes: Rivers, Warriors, D’Antoni
SB Nation’s Paul Flannery checks in with Doc Rivers one year into his shift from the hallowed Celtics to the traditionally woebegone Clippers, and while the coach has himself undergone a change in cultures, he’s busy trying to implement a new attitude in Clipperland.
“I took the gamble, that’s what I always tell people,” Rivers said. “It was me taking this gamble. It’s worth it. If we get it right, it will be worth it. If we get it wrong, it will be a great attempt. It gives me a lot of life and it’s a task. If you know, there’s a lot, not just the basketball part that we’re trying to change here. It’s more the mindset.”
Here’s more from the Pacific Division:
- Warriors ownership and management haven’t publicly dismissed rumors surrounding Mark Jackson because they believe his actions fomented the media storm, writes Sam Amick of USA Today. Amick seconds the frequent suggestion that the team’s postseason performance will determine the coach’s fate.
- Ric Bucher of Bleacher Report explains the personality conflict between Jackson and Brian Scalabrine, the former assistant coach whom the Warriors reassigned to a gig with their D-League affiliate at Jackson’s behest (video link).
- Mike D’Antoni has no shortage of affection for Marshall University, his alma mater, writes Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio, who wouldn’t be surprised if D’Antoni winds up coaching the school’s basketball team next year. D’Antoni and Marshall reportedly have mutual interest.
Mavs To Retain Samuel Dalembert
Samuel Dalembert‘s contract with the Mavs is only guaranteed for $1.8MM of its full value of nearly $3.9MM for next season, but Dallas doesn’t intend to waive him and pocket the savings, GM Donnie Nelson tells Tim McMahon of ESPNDallas.com. Dalembert will “absolutely” return for 2014/15, Nelson says, though the exec admits that the team signed him because there were few other palatable options after Dwight Howard and others went elsewhere.
“It was like the prom and we were the last two ones standing by the wall,” Nelson joked. “Well, you want to do this thing or not?”
There’s plenty of time for the Mavs to change their minds about Dalembert, whose contract won’t become fully guaranteed until January 7th, 2015. For the time being, it appears Dallas is content to enter the summer with the 6’11” center on their books at full price. The Mavs still have plenty of flexibility, as Dalembert’s entire salary would push their commitments only slightly above $30MM. Still, that figure doesn’t count a new contract for Dirk Nowitzki, whose deal is up at season’s end.
The Mavericks had reportedly discussed the notion of trading for Dalembert for years before signing him, believing he’d be an effective complement to Nowitzki, so Nelson’s suggestion that the team signed Dalembert merely as a last resort conflicts with that. The 32-year-old Dalembert has played just 20.3 minutes per game this season for the Mavs, but owner Mark Cuban recently called him the “steal” of last year’s free agent class.
Rudy Gay Rumors: Option, Kings, Grizzlies
Rudy Gay could become one of the most polarizing free agents of the 2014 class if he decides to turn down next season’s player option, worth more than $19.3MM, and hit the market this summer. The Grizzlies and Raptors reached new heights after unloading him, while the Kings have remained at the bottom of the Western Conference since acquiring the 6’8″ forward. Gay has nonetheless played much better in Sacramento, and his 48.4% shooting percentage in 50 games as a King would be a career high if extrapolated over a full season. Here’s the latest on the Octagon Sports client as a critical offseason looms:
- Gay tells Scott Howard-Cooper of NBA.com that he’s so uncertain about whether to exercise his player option that he can’t even identify what will factor into the decision. Still, Howard-Cooper gets the sense that Gay is leaning toward staying with the Kings, whether that means opting in or signing a new deal with the team. “I think I can have a future here for sure,” Gay said. “For sure. With the people we have in the front office, with the coaches, I definitely fit in here. It’s just when you get here, you’re set and you’re settled and everything’s blown over, when you have your contract and everything’s set, no matter where you are, it’s just where do we go from there? I’m looking forward to weighing my options.”
- The 27-year-old said to Howard-Cooper that he can envision himself continuing to play in a rebuilding situation, but he admits to Jonathan Santiago of Cowbell Kingdom that it’s not ideal. “At times it’s tough,” Gay said. “I’m not going to say it’s all peaches and cream because at times it’s tough. But you have to put yourself in a different mindset. Of course, if I was on a vet team, I’d probably be preparing for the playoffs. But since I’m here, I have to make these guys better.”
- His contract, not his inefficient play, is why the Grizzlies decided to trade Gay last year, as Lionel Hollins asserts to Kerry Eggers of the Portland Tribune.
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Reader Rodrigues_Islander joins Warriors players in coming to the defense of coach Mark Jackson, who’s been at the center of controversy of late, perhaps thanks in part to the team’s expectation that it should be contending for the Western Conference title.
- The Warriors have NOT underachieved this year. Of the teams that are ahead of them, with the possible exception of Portland, who are they better than? None. San Antonio, OKC, the Clippers, or the Rockets? Nope. It’s very likely the first-round opponent will be Houston or the Clippers: a probable first-round exit. Mark Jackson has done well. Why we’re in a hurry to dump him is beyond me.
We ask readers a nightly question on the Hoops Rumors Facebook page, and Zachary Padulsky offered his thoughts on the idea that Julius Randle has played himself into consideration to become one of the top two picks.
- No, however, I still see him as being more NBA-ready than a lot of the prospects. He does need to work on finishing with his right hand, but he is also still a physical beast. I’m a big fan of his game, and that has not wavered since the first night of the college season.
Chris Kaman once more vented his frustration with the Lakers, and Austin thinks the soon-to-be free agent center should look in the mirror.
- So … Kaman does not get a long with [Rick] Carlisle in Dallas … and does not get along with [Mike] D’Antoni in L.A … Ever think you might be the problem, Chris?
We appreciate everyone who adds to the dialogue at Hoops Rumors, and we look forward to seeing more responses like these from you!
Draft Rumors: Saric, Wiggins, Exum
The father of lottery prospect Dario Saric reiterated to Tomislav Gabelić of 24sata that he doesn’t feel his son is ready for the NBA, suggesting that Spanish team Real Madrid is in contention to sign the 6’10” forward, as David Pick of Eurobasket.com notes (Twitter links). That lends credence to the notion that his rumored deal with Efes Pilson of Turkey never came to fruition. Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress recently wrote that Dario Saric is almost certain to enter the draft, and while sources confirm to Pick that Saric is indeed draft-bound, they believe he’ll nonetheless sign with a European club, becoming a “draft-and-stash” player. There’s more on Saric amid the latest on the draft, as we detail:
- The stumbling block for many European teams that would pursue Saric is that only a few of them can afford his buyout from KK Cibona, the club for which he currently plays, tweets Sportando’s Emiliano Carchia. Saric’s father also confirms that agent Robert Jablan no longer represents his son, who is without an agent, Carchia notes via Twitter.
- An earlier report indicated that Andrew Wiggins was expected to sign with agent Rich Paul of Klutch Sports, but Chris Haynes of CSNNW.com hears that Paul never recruited Wiggins. Instead, Jay Z’s Roc Nation Sports and one other agency are contending for Wiggins, Haynes writes.
- Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports lists his top 10 international prospects, with Saric right behind Australian point guard Dante Exum, who occupies the No. 1 spot.
Pacific Rumors: Thomas, Jackson, Marshall
There will be something on the line for every team in the Pacific Division over the final two weeks or so remaining in the regular season. The Clippers have an outside chance at catching the Thunder for the second seed in the Western Conference, while the Warriors and Suns are fighting for one of the final playoff spots and the Kings and Lakers are jockeying for draft lottery position. Plenty of intrigue will carry over into the offseason, as we detail:
- Isaiah Thomas let his affection for the Lakers be known recently, but the soon-to-be restricted free agent tells Jason Jones of The Sacramento Bee that he’d prefer to remain with the Kings. The Kings would like to keep him, since they’ve concluded that Thomas, DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay can form the core of a quality team, Jones writes. “I definitely want to be around when it does turn around,” Thomas said. “I was drafted here. I’ve been welcomed with open arms by the Sacramento community. It just feels like a second home. I can’t control it, though. At the same time, I’m going to do whatever’s possible to be around. That’s all I can do.”
- Regardless of what happens between Mark Jackson and the Warriors, the former Knicks point guard won’t have the chance to return to New York, as Knicks team president Phil Jackson wouldn’t hire him, tweets Tim Kawakami of the Bay Area News Group. Warriors co-owner Joe Lacob will be the sole decision-maker regarding the coach’s future with Golden State, Kawakami adds (Twitter link).
- Kendall Marshall still holds a grudge against the Suns for trading him just one season after they took him 13th overall in 2012, observes Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic. The Lakers plan to retain Marshall on his non-guaranteed contract next season, as we noted earlier.