Extension Candidate: Brandon Jennings
Brandon Jennings seemed to throw his long-term future with the Bucks into question when he said in February he was "doing my homework on big-market teams." Jennings quickly backtracked a little, and more recently he's indicated a willingness to sign a long-term extension with Milwaukee. The 6'1" high-scoring point guard has never been an All-Star, and the Bucks have only made one playoff appearance in his three seasons with the team, but there are still compelling reasons for them to want to hang on to the player they took 10th overall in 2009.
Jennings made an early splash with a 55-point burst in just his seventh pro game, but averaged just 15.8 points per game for his first two seasons. He lifted that number significantly this past season, to 19.1, helped not only by 2.2 more shots per game, but by improved shooting as well. He's continually raised his field goal percentage, from 37.1% in his rookie year to 39.0% in 2010/11, and to 41.8% last season. His advanced metrics show similar upticks, as his true shooting percentage, PER and win shares per 48 minutes all show year-to-year improvement throughout Jennings' brief career.
The Bucks are looking forward to a full season of Jennings and Monta Ellis in the backcourt. While conventional wisdom might suggest Ellis would siphon some of Jennings' offense, that wasn't the case last year, as Jennings' scoring average and shooting percentage were both up after Ellis arrived in a trade with the Warriors. Ellis averaged more than four fewer points per game with the Bucks than with the Warriors last year, so it remains to be seen whether the pairing can work for both players. Unfortunately, the Bucks won't have the benefit of a sample size larger than last year's 21-game partial-season experiment if they want to sign Jennings to an extension, since the deadline to do so is October 31.
Milwaukee has never been a destination for top-flight free agent talent, so it makes sense for the franchise to do what it can to retain its own players, even if it has to overpay a little. Jennings turns 23 in September, and given his steady improvement, he could easily develop into an annual 20+ PPG scorer, a commodity at the point guard position. He's never been a high-assist player, topping out at 5.7 assists per game his rookie year, but his career assist-to-turnover rating of 5.4-to-2.3 suggests he can handle an offense with at least passable efficiency.
Based on Jennings' track record and potential, the Bucks can probably justify a four-year extension for the maximum. That would mean a first-year salary of 25% of whatever the salary cap is in 2013/14, when the extension would take effect, with 7.5% raises. That works out to about $14.5MM in the first year based on the current $58.044MM cap. In 2013/14, the Bucks will have $7.9MM committed to Ersan Ilyasova in the second year of his five-year deal, while Ellis has an early termination option worth $11MM for that season. Assuming Ellis stays with the Bucks and Jennings gets a max extension, that's $33.4MM for three players, which is not too expensive for the core of a team.
While Jennings, Ellis and Ilyasova are all under 30 and have room for improvement, no one's mistaking them for the cornerstones of a title winner. The Bucks have the flexibility to keep their team intact, but it's clear they'll need more. It's doubtful they can do much better than Jennings on the free agent market, but if they decide against extending him, or he decides to see what he can get from those big-market teams he talked about in February, he could be in for a tough go in restricted free agency.
Point guards Ty Lawson, Stephen Curry, Jrue Holiday and Jeff Teague could all become restricted free agents next summer, while Chris Paul, Jose Calderon, Mo Williams could be up for grabs as unrestricted free agents. Jennings could always sign his qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent in 2014, but that seems unlikely. A maximum extension appears to be mutually beneficial for both the Bucks and Jennings, and I expect agent Bill Duffy and GM John Hammond to come to an agreement soon.
Pacific Rumors: Suns, D’Antoni, Nash, Caracter
Four of the five teams in the Pacific Division stand at least a reasonable chance to improve in 2012/13. The Lakers, last year's first-place team, brought in Steve Nash and Antawn Jamison. The Clippers will have Jamal Crawford and a healthy Chauncey Billups. The Warriors will finally get to see Andrew Bogut on the floor, and the Kings added another high lottery pick with No. 5 overall selection Thomas Robinson. The only team that figures to take a step back is the Suns, and there are a couple items of interest from Phoenix this afternoon:
- Suns executives believe yesterday's three-team deal that sent Robin Lopez to the Hornets and brought back Wesley Johnson represents a key point in the team's rebuilding phase, Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic writes. The deal was helped along by draft picks and cash the Suns acquired when they sent Steve Nash to the Lakers, team officials said.
- Former Suns and Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni said if he were still coaching in New York, he would have "walked to Phoenix" to persuade Nash to sign with the Knicks, tweets Chris Mannix of SI.com. The Knicks were seen as frontrunners for the two-time MVP before he wound up with L.A.
- Former Lakers reserve Derrick Caracter didn't see much playing time in the summer league for the Hawks, but Steve Kyler of HoopsWorld expects the 6'9" free agent power forward to get a training camp invite (Twitter link).
Jon Diebler To Play In Turkey
Jon Diebler has signed to play for Pinar Karsiyaka in the Turkish league next season, agent Lance Young confirmed to Bob Baptist of The Columbus Dispatch. Diebler, whose NBA rights were traded to the Rockets last week in the Courtney Lee deal, played last season in Greece after the Blazers selected him 51st overall in 2011.
The 6'6" guard averaged 12.7 points per game and shot 50.2% from three-point range in the final season of a four-year career at Ohio State in 2010/11. A bruised thumb hampered his shooting in summer league play this month, and the Rockets encouraged him to spend another season overseas, Young said.
"(Rockets general manager) Daryl Morey told me they can see him on their roster in the future but this year is not the best time," the agent said.
Grizzlies Sign Hamed Haddadi
The Grizzlies have officially announced the re-signing of center Hamed Haddadi, tweets Chris Herrington of The Memphis Flyer (hat tip to Zach Lowe of SI.com). Terms are not known, but the deal is likely no greater than the one-year, $1.3MM contract Haddadi got from the team last year.
The 7'2" Haddadi, the NBA's first Iranian-born player, averaged 2.o points and 2.0 rebounds in 5.9 minutes of play, chipping in 0.7 blocks. Those figures closely mirror the four-year veteran's career numbers since Memphis signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2008.
Ronald Tillery of the Memphis Commercial Appeal reported Thursday that Haddadi and the team were expected to come to terms soon, predicting the deal would be for close to the veteran's minimum of $915,852 for a fifth-year player. The Grizzlies hold Haddadi's Bird rights, but the team is over the tax threshold, so it's unlikely the 27-year-old gets a signficant raise.
Odds & Ends: Cavs, Parker, Kirilenko, Fields
Every team in the NBA gets an equal number of home games and road games every year, but that doesn't guarantee equitability. Matt Moore of CBSSports.com goes in-depth on this year's slate, explaining how strength of schedule varies across the league. The Spurs, thanks to their annual rodeo road trip, have only two home games in February. The Clippers will go on an eight-game road trip while the Grammys occupy the Staples Center, but their rival Lakers only play seven road games during that time. The Magic will play the fewest sets of back-to-back games, with 13, while nine other teams have 22 back-to-backs. There's plenty more of note this evening from around the Association:
- Eric Pincus of HoopsWorld notes the Cavs still have the flexibility needed to acquire Andrew Bynum if three-team trade talks with the Lakers and Magic get going again (Sulia link).
- Tom Withers of the Associated Press catches up with Spurs point guard Tony Parker, who's taking a more cautious approach to life following the injury he sustained to his eye as a bystander to a nightclub brawl. Parker doesn't plan on letting the apprehensiveness carry over to his play, however.
- One NBA assistant coach tells Jerry Zgoda of the Star Tribune that Andrei Kirilenko is a better fit with Wolves coach Rick Adelman's offensive system than he was with former Jazz coach Jerry Sloan's (Twitter link).
- Stephen Brotherston of HoopsWorld talks to Landry Fields, now with the Raptors after the Knicks declined to match his backloaded offer sheet. Fields reflected on his time in New York and says his new team feels optimistic about making the playoffs this year.
- Nick Friedell of ESPNChicago.com echoes the comments of former NBA coach Jeff Van Gundy on ESPN 1000’s "Waddle & Silvy" show, calling for the Bulls to extend coach Tom Thibodeau's contract.
- Austin Rivers (right ankle) and Xavier Henry (right knee) have undergone surgeries, the Hornets announced on their website, but both will be ready in time for fall training camp.
Pacific Rumors: Bryant, Johnson, Kings, Clippers
Earlier this evening we asked which team is having the best offseason so far, and right now more readers believe it's the Lakers than any other team. That stands to reason, given their sign-and-trade for Steve Nash and re-signing of backup big man Jordan Hill, along with their ability to convince Antawn Jamison to sign a deal for the veteran's minimum, well below market value. Here's what we're hearing from the Lakers and their Pacific Division rivals:
- Kobe Bryant's influence in the Nash acquisition demonstrates Bryant's improved relationship with the Lakers front office, as Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Times writes. Last year, the Lakers hired coach Mike Brown without consulting their star, while Bryant criticized the team on its decision to trade Lamar Odom and for not being more up-front about Pau Gasol's future.
- Marcus R. Fuller of the St. Paul Pioneer Press looks at what's gone wrong the past two years for 2010 No. 4 pick Wesley Johnson, whom the Timberwolves traded to the Suns today as part of a three-team deal.
- The Kings must show maturity and learn to play with more cohesion for the team to improve, opines Jason Jones of the Sacramento Bee.
- The Clippers have hired Bob Ociepka as an assistant coach, according to the team's website. The longtime NBA assistant spent last year with the Blazers.
Pera Seeking Local Partners In Bid For Grizzlies
Prospective Grizzlies owner Robert Pera is looking for Memphis-area buyers to add as co-owners as he seeks approval to buy the team from a group headed by Michael Heisley, report Ronald Tillery and Kyle Veazey of the Memphis Commercial Appeal. Pera is seeking partners not out of financial need but because he senses area business leaders would prefer local ownership, Tillery and Veazey hear.
Pera wrote in his blog about a recent meeting with current minority owner J.R. "Pitt" Hyde, and has visited with others in the Memphis business community. In June, Pera agreed to buy the Grizzlies for $335MM, and while a report last month suggested a rapid decline in Pera's net worth put his bid for the team in danger, Heisley said soon afterward that he has no reason to believe Pera won't be able to meet his asking price.
The deal remains subject to league approval. Commissioner David Stern said last week the league's vetting process of Pera is proceeding on schedule and that he hopes the league will be able to make the sale official in the next couple of months.
Dwight Howard’s Agent Was Source Of Meeting Info
Dan Fegan, the agent for Dwight Howard, says he and other representatives for Howard were the sources who spoke to the media about Wednesday's meeting between Howard and the Magic, ESPN's Ric Bucher reports. Commissioner David Stern has said publicly that he believed Fegan leaked information from the meeting to the media. Fegan said he spoke to the media only after fielding calls from reporters who had learned the meeting was taking place from another source. The reporters were looking to confirm details they already had about the meeting, Fegan said.
"After receiving these media inquiries, I called Rob and left several messages expressing concern that what had occurred in the meeting was not going to be accurately reported — as had happened on previous occasions — and that we were going to respond to the media inquiries to make sure that reports were accurate," Fegan wrote in an email. "To a limited extent, that is what we did."
In the meeting, which included Magic GM Rob Hennigan and assistant GM Scott Perry, Howard reiterated his trade demands and said he'll leave as a free agent next summer if he's still on the Magic roster by then. Magic ownership, which opposed a Howard trade last season, would be on board with moving him this year, Bucher writes.
Poll: Which Team Has Had The Best Offseason?
There are still two months left until training camps open and three months until the regular season, but many of the offseason's highly anticipated moves have already happened. There's plenty, including a Dwight Howard trade, that can happen between now and the fall, but it seems like an appropriate time to take stock of what we've seen so far.
The five teams listed in the poll have been in the news a lot this past month. The Nets landed the top free agent target in Deron Williams and pulled off a trade for Joe Johnson. Their crosstown-rival Knicks loaded up on veterans, but let go of Jeremy Lin. The Heat snagged Ray Allen from the Celtics, pilfering from a key rival. The Lakers got a top-flight point guard in Steve Nash. The Timberwolves missed out on Nicolas Batum, but added Brandon Roy and Andrei Kirilenko.
Of course, you may think someone else is doing better, like the Hornets, who added a pair of top-10 picks, retained Eric Gordon, and today acquired Robin Lopez in a sign-and-trade. Others, like the Hawks and Mavs, deftly cleared cap space for next summer's free agents.
So, tell us which team you believe is having the best summer. For a cheat sheet, at least as far as free agents are concerned, consult our free agent tracker.
Which Team Has Had The Best Offseason?
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Lakers 36% (590)
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Nets 19% (311)
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None of the above 17% (279)
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Timberwolves 11% (182)
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Heat 9% (147)
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Knicks 7% (109)
Total votes: 1,618
The Effect Of Playing For Team USA
In 2011 there was a lot said about the effect playing for Team USA in the 2010 World Championships had on NBA stars who experienced breakout seasons the next year. In 2010/11, Derrick Rose won the MVP, Kevin Love grabbed the rebounding title, and Tyson Chandler became the defensive anchor of the title-winning Mavericks, among other Team USA alums who lifted their games. So, it might be reasonable to expect the same from members of the 2012 Olympic team, which begins its quest for the gold in London this weekend.
Yet there's evidence to suggest playing for Team USA is not always a catapult to success. We've broken down the year-to-year PER changes for each member of the last three Team USA squads, encompassing the tenure of Mike Krzyzewski as coach. Obviously, this is a limited data set, and doesn't take a broader look at players from other countries, but it at least establishes that a spot on the national team is not guarantee of success going forward.
While eight of the 12 players on the 2010 roster had a better PER in 2010/11 than 2009/10, only 13 of the 24 Team USA players from 2006 and 2008 improved their PER in the following season. The combined PER for the '06 and '08 squads was down slightly in the seasons immediately following the events, while the PER for the 2010 team jumped by 26.2 points in 2010/11.
The performance of players from this year's Team USA may go a long way toward determining whether top NBA stars will continue to play in the Olympics. Commissioner David Stern indicated he's in no rush to push for a decision on a proposed 23-and-under rule from FIBA, and if many of the 2012 Olympians carry over their success to the coming season the way their 2010 counterparts did, there might be little appetite for change. If the players show fatigue, sustain a high rate of injuries, or if there are just as many who play worse next season instead of better, the World Championships may become the only stage for the kind of star-studded Team USA that will play the next two weeks in London.
