Author: Chuck Myron

Only about five weeks remain until the end of the regular season, and with the NCAA Tournament in full swing, NBA teams are beginning to look at draft prospects for next year. With that in mind, it's helpful to look back at previous drafts to see what we can learn. Three years after a draft offers a fairly relevant sample size to judge teams on their selections and players on their performances. It also offers a look ahead to next season, when some of the 2009 draftees will be extension candidates ahead of a chance at restricted free agency in the summer of 2013. Here are the top five overachieving picks from 2009, and the top five underachievers, with the team that drafted them, draft position, and relevant career stats in parentheses.

Overachievers

• Brandon Jennings (Bucks, 10th overall: 16.5 PPG, 5.4 APG, 15.9 PER) He's a lottery pick with a career 38.6 shooting percentage, but when he scored 55 points in his seventh NBA game, he showed why he's got more talent than the average 10th selection. He's improved his field-goal percentage and PPG in each of his three seasons, and the 22-year-old is the Bucks leading scorer this year.
• Marcus Thornton (Heat, 43rd overall: 14.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 17.1 PER) The Heat traded him on draft night to the Hornets, but it's been in Sacramento where Thornton has truly flourished, putting up 21.3 PPG after arriving last year and 18.6 this season. Credit former Kings coach Paul Westphal with putting him in the starting lineup and getting the best out of this former second-round pick. 
• Ty Lawson (Timberwolves, 18th overall: 11.3 PPG, 4.6 APG, 17.6 PER) Of all the point guards the Wolves drafted that year, he might be the best. Unfortunately for Minnesota fans, GM David Kahn traded Lawson to Denver on draft night. Lawson served as an understudy to Chauncey Billups his first year and a half, but was picked to start over Raymond Felton after the Carmelo Anthony trade last year and has held the job ever since. He's averaging a career-high 15.2 PPG and 6.8 APG this season.
• Taj Gibson (Bulls, 26th overall: 7.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 14.6 PER) He became a bench player after starting 70 games in his rookie season, but he often plays the crunch-time minutes of a starter. He's earned coach Tom Thibodeau's trust, which speaks to his defense, and he's tough to handle on boards, averaging 9.7 RPG per 36 minutes for his career.
• DeJuan Blair (Spurs, 37th overall: 8.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 17.3 PER) There aren't many second-rounders who start for contending teams in their third seasons, and fewer still who do it without ACLs in their knees. He plays less than half the game for the Spurs these days, even though he starts, but is efficient in his time, averaging 15.8 PPG and 9.7 RPG per 36 minutes this season.

Underachievers

• Hasheem Thabeet (Grizzlies, 2nd overall: 2.2 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 10.6 PER) It's not a positive sign for a No. 2 overall pick when he goes down to the D-League in each of his first two seasons, but that's exactly what happened here. Memphis GM Chris Wallace has avoided too much criticism for this one because the spectre of the Blazers' wasted pick of Greg Oden two years prior overshadows it, the Grizzlies have been winning, and the team was able to trade Thabeet in a package that netted Shane Battier, a key figure in their playoff run last year.
• Terrence Williams (Nets, 11th overall: 7.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 10.5 PER) After being waived by the Rockets last week, he's headed for his third NBA team, this time on a 10-day contract with the Kings. That's a long fall for a lottery pick.
• Jordan Hill (Knicks, 8th overall: 5.4 PPG, 4.2 PPG, 14.1 PER) He was traded to Houston midway through his rookie season, and now finds himself with the Lakers after another deadline deal this year. Still, since L.A. gave up trusty Derek Fisher to get him, the Lakers may see enough in Hill to think he can at least carve out a niche as a solid contributor.
• Jonny Flynn (Timberwolves, 6th overall: 9.7 PPG, 3.9 APG, 11.2 PER) David Kahn raised plenty of eyebrows when he followed up his pick of Ricky Rubio at No. 5 with another point guard. He was a reliable insurance policy in his first year as Rubio played overseas, starting 81 games and averaging 13.5 PPG and 4.4 APG. He's started only eight games since, but could see time with his new team in Portland, as the Blazers look at some of their younger players.
• Earl Clark (Suns, 14th overall: 3.0 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 8.7 PER) Buried on the bench with the Suns, Clark got a look as the backup to Dwight Howard after being traded to Orlando last year. His 4.1 PPG and 2.5 RPG in 11.9 MPG was underwhelming enough for the Magic to give his minutes to Glen Davis this year, and Clark is once more out of the rotation.

Buyouts, waived players and guys returning from China are keeping the NBA rumor mill interesting even after the trade deadline. Several teams have the chance to improve themselves by picking up a contributor for the final weeks and the playoffs. So, we ask which player with a new team after the trade deadline will have the greatest impact. This list includes a mix of guys who are already on their new teams and some who are still negotiating. We'll include Chris Kaman, as even though the Hornets seem to want to keep him, the notion that the No. 1 buyout candidate will hit the open market remains at least a slight possibility.

Another deadline looms over the NBA this week. Players must clear waivers by Friday to be eligible for the playoffs with a new team, and many of them are in the process of negotiating buyouts with their current teams to obtain the freedom to sign elsewhere. With a buyout, a player is essentially paying for his free agency by giving back a portion of his contract. Sometimes it's a relatively small fraction of the contract's worth, and other times, as with Mike Bibby last year, it's a sizable chunk of money. Teams may be motivated to do a buyout for cap relief, as the reduced value of the contract, and not its original value, is what counts on the ledger. For more on buyouts and their affect on the salary cap, check out Larry Coon's CBA FAQ.

As this year's crop of buyouts gets ready for harvest, let's take a look back at what happened to the players who agreed to buyouts last year: 

• Mike Bibby renounced $6,217,616 of his salary over two seasons when he reached a buyout agreement with the Wizards on February 28. Scheduled to make $5,764,767 in 2010/11 and $6,417,616 in 2011/12, he received $4,438,893 last year and gets $1,125,874 this year from the contract. (The contract also netted Bibby $400K in incentives). He signed with the Heat on March 2, earning $342,022 for the rest of the season. He started all but the final playoff game for Miami, averaging 3.7 points, 1.2 assists and 20.8 minutes in the postseason. He has played a limited role with the Knicks this season on a 1,352,181 minimum-salary deal. The $1.125MM he gets from his bought out contract still counts as a cap hit against the Wizards this year.
• Troy Murphy gave up $300K of the $11,968,253 remaining on his expiring contract when he and the Warriors reached a buyout agreement February 28. The Celtics picked him up March 2 for $310,929, so Murphy came out ahead by close to $11K. Though he averaged 10.5 MPG off the bench for the Celtics during the regular season, he played a total of just three minutes in the playoffs. He signed with the Lakers for the veteran’s minimum of $1,352,181, and as the first big man off the bench, he’s averaged 3.4 PPG and 3.5 RPG in 18 MPG.
• Al Thornton was making $2,814,196 in the final year of his rookie contract last year, and gave back $100K in a buyout with the Wizards on March 1. He latched on with the Warriors for $218,677 on March 3 and settled into the rotation, averaging 6.0 PPG, 2.6 RPG and 14.3 MPG. Nonetheless, the 14th pick in the 2007 draft has not played in the league this season, and signed with a Puerto Rican team last month.
• Corey Brewer’s was making $3,703,472 in the final year of his rookie contract with the Timberwolves when he was shipped to the Knicks in the three-team Carmelo Anthony deal. On March 1, he agreed to cut his salary to $3.2MM in a buyout. Two days later, the Mavs used their midlevel exception to sign him to a three-year, $7.452MM deal. He played in 13 regular season games for the Mavericks, performing well in just 11.4 MPG, compiling PER (17.6) and points per 36 minutes (16.8) numbers well above his career marks. He was an afterthought in the playoffs though, appearing for just 23 total minutes as the Mavs made their championship run. Seeking to shed salary, Dallas traded Brewer and Rudy Fernandez to the Nuggets for a second-round pick before this season. Seeing 21.8 MPG, Brewer is averaging 9.8 PPG, the best scoring output of his career save for 13.0 PPG in 2009/10.
• Jared Jeffries forfeited $1MM of his $6,883,800 salary on February 25 to get a buyout from the Rockets. He signed a $316,584 minimum-salary deal on March 1 with the Knicks, who had sent him to Houston in a 2010 trade. A favorite of coach Mike D’Antoni’s, he saw 19.3 MPG in the regular season but was largely ineffective en route to a career-worst 34.9% shooting percentage. He bounced back in the playoffs, averaging 6.3 PPG on 47.8% from the floor. The Knicks brought him back on another minimum deal for $1,229,255 this season, and while he’s averaged 4.8 PPG and 4.2 RPG in 20.5 MPG this year, his playing time has been cut back somewhat under new coach Mike Woodson.
• Eddy Curry’s six-year, $56,014,078 contract finally came off the Knicks books last year when they shipped him to the Timberwolves as part of the Carmelo Anthony trade. The Wolves absorbed a $504,459 trade kicker, but wasted little time divesting themselves of Curry. He agreed to give back $250K in a buyout March 1, yet still wound up pocketing more than $11.53MM from the final year of his massive deal. The buyout turned out to be a waste for Curry, who didn’t catch on with another team last year. The Heat signed him to a $1,352,181 minimum-salary deal before this season, but has used Curry for a total of just 46 minutes all year.

Storytellers Contracts was used in the creation of this post.