Trade Retrospective: Vince Carter To Nets

In the wake of the blockbuster deal that sent Kevin Love to the Cavaliers this summer, I’ve been taking a look back at some of the bigger trades that have occurred in the NBA over the last decade. It’s always a risk to trade away a star player, and getting equal value is a near impossibility in most cases.

It’s fascinating to see the league-wide ripples that big trades can cause, and sometimes the full effects and ramifications aren’t fully felt until years later when the draft picks are used, players either reach their potential or fall short, the won-loss records are final, and title banners have been hung, or franchises end up in the draft lottery.

So far I’ve looked back at Carmelo Anthony being dealt to the Knicks; Kevin Garnett to the Celtics; Dwight Howard to the Lakers; Stephon Marbury to the Knicks; Shaquille O’Neal to the Heat; Chris Paul to the Clippers; Deron Williams to the Nets; LaMarcus Aldridge to the Blazers; and James Harden to the Rockets. Next up is a response to one of our reader’s requests, the December 18th, 2004 trade that saw the Raptors send Vince Carter to the Nets.

Let’s begin with a breakdown of the pieces involved:

The Nets were desperately looking for some athleticism to replace Kenyon Martin who had been traded to Denver prior to the season. The franchise was beginning to decline, despite being only one season removed from their second consecutive trip to the NBA Finals. The team’s biggest star, Jason Kidd, was growing frustrated and all indications were that he was going to push for a trade, and management hoped that this deal would not only vault the franchise back into contender status, but also placate Kidd.

Here are the Nets records prior to trade:

  1. 2000/01: 26-56
  2. 2001/02: 52-30 (Lost in the NBA Finals to the Lakers)
  3. 2002/03: 49-33 (Lost in the NBA Finals to the Spurs)
  4. 2003/04: 47-35 (Lost in second round to the Pistons)

Carter was the biggest star in Raptors history. He was an electric player whose high-flying dunks and scoring prowess made him one of the top attractions in the game. But he was beginning to be criticized by the media and fans for becoming a “soft” player, which didn’t sit well with him. The point of contention was his increased reliance on jump shots, and his seeming reluctance to drive the lane and take the inevitable contact that results from such forays.

At the time of the trade Carter was in the midst of his worst season as a professional, averaging a career low 15.9 PPG while shooting 41.1% from the field. Believing a change of scenery would energize his career, Carter requested a trade from the Raptors and Brooklyn (then New Jersey) was all too happy to pair him with Kidd and Richard Jefferson to form one of the more exciting and athletic teams in the league.

Carter instantly responded to the change of address, increasing his scoring to 27.5 PPG the rest of the 2004/05 season. He also returned to form during his years in New Jersey, though the move never resulted in the Nets returning to the Finals, much less winning them.

Here’s what Carter’s production was during his time with the Nets:

  1. 2004/05: 27.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.7 APG, and 1.5 SPG. His slash line was .462/.425/.817.
  2. 2005/06: 24.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.3 APG, and 1.2 APG. His slash line was .430/.341/.799.
  3. 2006/07: 25.2 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.8 APG, and 1.0 SPG. His slash line was .454/.357/.802.
  4. 2007/08: 21.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 5.1 APG, and 1.2 SPG. His slash line was .456/.359/.816.
  5. 2008/09: 20.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 4.7 APG, and 1.0 SPG. His slash line was .437/.385/.817.

As you can see, his production was All-Star caliber though he began his decline phase during his last two seasons in New Jersey. But his numbers were also just window dressing since the Nets were merely an average team during his tenure. Here is what the Nets did with Carter on the roster:

  1. 2004/05: 42-40 (Lost in first round to the Heat)
  2. 2005/06: 49-33 (Lost in second round to the Heat)
  3. 2006/07: 41-41 (Lost in second round to the Cavs)
  4. 2007/08: 34-48
  5. 2008/09: 34-48

Carter’s time in New Jersey came to an end on June 25th, 2009, the day of the NBA Draft. He was dealt to the Magic along with Ryan Anderson for Rafer Alston, Tony Battie and Courtney Lee. The Nets immediately felt his absence, going 12-70 the next season, while Orlando went 59-23 and lost in the Conference Finals to the Celtics.

Considering the Nets didn’t end up giving away all that much to acquire Carter, it’s difficult to label the trade a failure from a purely statistical standpoint. But seeing how Carter’s presence didn’t result in a deep playoff run or a 50+ win season at any point, the franchise may have been better served in the long run if they had skipped this trade, blown up the roster, and spent a few seasons in the draft lottery as a result.

This trade from the Raptors’ point-of-view was an attempt to jump start their rebuilding process and to assuage Carter, who had made it clear to team management that he wanted out of Toronto. He was in the midst of his worst season as a pro, and to be fair, he was nursing a number of nagging injuries at the time, but the change of scenery certainly seemed to energize Carter and boost his stats.

Toronto wasn’t close to contending with its roster at the time, as evidenced by its records in the seasons prior to the deal happening:

  1. 2000/01: 47-35 (lost in second round to the Sixers)
  2. 2001/02: 42-40 (lost in first round to the Pistons)
  3. 2002/03: 24-58
  4. 2003/04: 33-49

When looking back at the pieces the Raptors netted, the first impression is that they received “pennies on the dollar” for Carter. They got very little out of the players they acquired, and the draft picks also ended up being misses, which makes the trade look even worse for Toronto.

With the 2005 first-rounder they received, the Raptors selected Joey Graham with the 16th overall pick. His numbers in Toronto left quite a bit to be desired for a mid first-rounder, as shown below:

  1. 2005/06: 6.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG, and 0.8 APG. His slash line was .478/.333/.812.
  2. 2006/07: 6.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG, and 0.6 APG. His slash line was .495/.290/.840.
  3. 2007/08: 3.6 PPG, 1.8 RPG, and 0.4 APG. His slash line was .434/.667/.844.
  4. 2008/09: 7.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, and 0.6 APG. His slash line was .481/.188/.825.

When making big-name player trades, draft picks are some of the best currency a franchise can acquire to help them jump start the rebuilding process. But the key is that teams need to cash in and select the right player–something that is far from an exact science. Toronto essentially wasted the pick on Graham, judging by his lack of production. This selection looks even worse when you consider that Danny Granger, Monta Ellis, Marcin Gortat, David Lee, and Gerald Green were still on the board when Graham’s name was called by the commissioner.

Graham’s tenure north of the border came to an end when he became a free agent in 2009 and inked a one-year, non-guaranteed deal with the Nuggets. He was only in the league for two more seasons, averaging 4.2 PPG and 5.2 PPG respectively during those years.

The other first-rounder was also wasted by Toronto. They packaged it along with Jalen Rose in the trade with the Knicks that brought Antonio Davis to the Raptors. For Toronto, this was a move to create cap space for the summer when the team was hoping to re-sign Mike James, who ended up opting out of his contract and signing with the Timberwolves anyway.

Davis did little-to-nothing for the Raptors, suffering a serious back injury after just eight games with the team. This injury resulted in the team releasing Davis, with then GM Bryan Colangelo saying, “After receiving a second opinion on Antonio’s lingering back problems, it is very unlikely that he would return to competitive action this season with the Raptors. After lengthy discussions with Antonio regarding his physical condition and his general sense of disappointment over his personally difficult year, we have concluded that it’s in the best interest of both the organization and Antonio Davis to simply release him at this late point of the season.” Davis never played another minute in the league again.

So instead of having another young player to try and build around, the Raptors traded the pick to the Knicks, who also botched their selection by taking Renaldo Balkman with the No. 20 overall pick. Balkman’s career numbers were 4.0 PPG and 3.5 RPG. That’s hardly impressive, and made all the worse by the players who were available when that selection rolled around, like Rajon Rondo, Kyle Lowry, and Paul Millsap.

This deal could have been a win for the Raptors if they had held onto the picks and used them wisely. If we were looking back on this trade and the Raptors had Rondo and Granger, or Ellis and Millsap, then it would be cast in a much different light for the organization and its fans.

So instead of tearing down their roster and starting fresh, the Raptors ended up with a number of aging and injured players in return for their superstar. Here’s what Toronto’s records looked like after the deal:

  1. 2004/05: 33-49
  2. 2005/06: 27-55
  3. 2006/07: 47-35 (lost in first round to the Nets)
  4. 2007/08: 41-41 (lost in first round to the Magic)
  5. 2008/09: 33-49

As for the rest of the players the Raptors received, Alonzo Mourning was the biggest name, but he was nowhere near the player that he was during his time in Charlotte or during his first stint with the Heat thanks to his kidney condition. Mourning never reported to Toronto, and instead he had his contract bought out by the team, which enabled him to sign with Miami, where he spent the remaining three seasons of his career.

Eric Williams lasted a season and a half in Toronto before being traded on June 21, 2006 to the Spurs along with Matt Bonner and a 2009 second-rounder (Jack McClinton) for Rasho Nesterovic and cash. Williams’ numbers with the Raptors were less than inspiring as evidenced below:

  1. 2004/05: 4.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG, and 1.5 APG. His slash line was .379/.333/.717.
  2. 2005/06: 3.3 PPG, 1.8 RPG, and 0.5 APG. His slash line was .387/.278/.737.

The final player involved was Aaron Williams, who also didn’t provide much in the way of production. Here’s what he offered the Raptors during his tenure:

  1. 2004/05: 1.6 PPG, 1.3 RPG, and 0.1 APG. His slash line was .417/.000/.857.
  2. 2005/06: 1.8 PPG, 1.1 RPG, and 0.1 APG. His slash line was .526/.000/.833.

Williams’ time with the franchise came to an end when he was traded in January of 2006 to the Pelicans for a 2006 second-rounder (Edin Bavcic) and a 2009 second-rounder, which was subsequently included in the previously mentioned Nesterovic trade.

Trading Carter was something that the Raptors couldn’t avoid. Having a star player unhappy to be in the city and with the franchise is never a good situation, and it’s even worse when he is having a career-worst season at the time. As is often the case, there was no way that Toronto was going to obtain equal value out of the gate for dealing away a player of Carter’s talents. But if they had used the first-rounders they acquired much more wisely, including not dealing one of them away for eight games of Antonio Davis, this is a deal that could have turned out quite differently.

So all the GMs out there hoping to stockpile picks when they gut their rosters should know that sometimes the players they have are much more beneficial to the team. The NBA Draft is such an inexact science when it comes to projecting which players will have the best professional careers. If these picks are spot on, the executives making these deals are hailed as geniuses, but far more often they don’t work out quite as planned.

This deal should have been a win for the Raptors considering who they could have had with the picks they obtained, but theoretical victories don’t placate fans, nor do they guarantee job security for those calling the shots. As for the Nets, they could have benefited more from holding onto the picks and using them wisely, especially since the acquisition of Carter didn’t net them a return to the NBA Finals, much less a championship banner. In the end I give the edge to Brooklyn, but it’s by default, and it’s not a victory they’ll hang from the rafters of the Barclays Center anytime soon.

Eastern Notes: Heat, Thornton, Plumlee

Despite the loss of LeBron James and the failure to bring in a superstar to replace him, the Heat did extremely well in free agency, Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel writes. Winderman believes that the signing of Luol Deng was the best possible consolation prize, and the veteran small forward will be especially motivated to perform this season after the Danny Ferry controversy in Atlanta.

Here’s more from the east:

  • With the Celtics in rebuilding mode and the franchise focusing on developing their younger backcourt players including first round pick Marcus Smart, some have called for Boston to trade the recently acquired Marcus Thornton. But despite the presence of Smart, Avery Bradley, and Evan Turner, after his deal is finalized, Kevin O’Connor of SB Nation thinks the team should consider holding onto the 27 year-old, and provides five reasons why.
  • Mason Plumlee is poised for a breakout season according to SB Nation, who believe the departure of Andray Blatche and the advancing age of Kevin Garnett will open the door for the second year player to shine this season for the Nets.
  • Former Bucks second-rounder Darington Hobson has signed with Brasilia of the Brazilian League, David Pick of Eurobasket reports (Twitter link). The contract includes outs for both the NBA and the Euroleague, according to Pick. Hobson played one season for Milwaukee, appearing in five games and averaging 0.8 PPG.

Andray Blatche Signs With Chinese Team

7:00pm: Pick has informed Hoops Rumors that the $2MM figure first reported for Blatche’s deal is correct.

12:25pm: Andy Miller, Blatche’s agent, has confirmed the signing, Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv tweets.

12:08pm: The deal is for approximately $2.5MM, Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports notes (Twitter link).

11:55am: According to his sources, David Pick of Eurobasket (Twitter link) reports that Blatche has signed the deal, and it is for one-year, $2MM.

9:52am: Free agent big man Andray Blatche is close to signing a deal to play in the Chinese Basketball Association, Sohu.com reports (translation by Enea Trapani of Sportando). The interested team is the Xinjiang Flying Tigers, who have already inked Jordan Crawford, and were in negotiations with Lester Hudson, before things fell apart.

There were rumors that the Flying Tigers were interested in signing Aron Baynes, who has also been linked to Yao Ming’s Shanghai Sharks. According to Hupu.com, Xinjiang’s management confirmed the addition of a big man who participated in the FIBA World Cup, but officials denied the deal was with Baynes, so it looks like Blatche is their target.

Blatche is an unrestricted free agent after averaging 11.2 PPG and 5.3 RPG in 22.2 minutes per contest with an 18.8 PER for the Nets last season. The Heat, Raptors, and Clippers had all been rumored to be interested in the 6’11”, 27 year-old. If Blatche does indeed sign with the CBA, he would still have an opportunity to sign with an NBA team late in the season, since the Chinese League ends play in February, with the playoffs generally concluding in mid-to-late March. For more on Blatche, check out Chuck Myron’s Free Agent Stock Watch profile on the player.

Atlantic Notes: Celtics, Rondo, Nets, Ndiaye

Rebuilding isn’t fun, but Celtics forward Jeff Green is staying upbeat about it, writes Chris Forsberg of ESPNBoston.com.  “You can’t really put a timetable on the rebuilding process,” said Green. “As long as you continue to get better each day — going to practice and just get better — that’s what it’s going to take for us to get better as a team and to increase wins. I think we ended the season well and this whole summer each guy took it upon themselves to get better, which is going to make our team better.”  More from the Atlantic Division..

  • A. Sherrod Blakely of CSNNE.com (on Twitter) believes a Rajon Rondo trade is possible for the Celtics, but he doesn’t see it happening before training camp.
  • The Nets voided Hamady Ndiaye‘s deal after discovering an elbow injury that needs 2-4 weeks of rest, a source tells Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter). The former Rutgers center played well through the injury for his native country of Senegal in the World Cup, but he would’ve needed to miss camp (link).  The Nets, meanwhile, wanted to use that time to look at him for their third center spot.
  • Ndiaye will most likely sign in China once his injury recovers, with several CBA teams in mix, a source tells Shams Charania of RealGM (on Twitter).

Nets Void Hamady Ndiaye’s Deal

FRIDAY, 9:40am: The Nets announced that they have voiced Ndiaye’s deal.  The Nets’ roster now stands at 16 players.

As we learned yesterday, the Rutgers product’s deal was non-guaranteed until October 25th, so the Nets aren’t on the hook for anything.  Had Ndiaye remained with the club at that point, his contract would have been guaranteed for $25K.

WEDNESDAY, 10:31am: The deal is official, the team announced via press release.

9:44am: The Nets and center Hamady Ndiaye have agreed to a deal for training camp, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports (Twitter link). It’ll have to be a minimum-salary contract for the 7’0″ 27-year-old, since that’s all the Nets can give, though it’s unclear whether he’s receiving any guaranteed money.

Ndiaye spent part of three seasons with the Wizards and Kings, having made Sacramento’s opening night roster as a non-guaranteed training camp invitee last season. The Kings waived him in January just before his contract would have become guaranteed for the entire season. The Pinnacle Management Corp. client reportedly worked out for the Sixers shortly thereafter, but he wound up joining Philadelphia’s D-League team instead. He spent the last couple of weeks competing for his native Senegal in the FIBA World Cup, averaging 5.7 points and 4.0 rebounds in nearly 17 minutes a game.

The Nets have been carrying only 13 fully guaranteed deals, but they have a partially guaranteed arrangement with 60th overall pick Cory Jefferson, and Jorge Gutierrez‘s deal becomes partially guaranteed if he sticks with the club past September 26th. Ndiaye would probably have to outplay Jefferson, another big man, to earn a spot for the regular season.

Eastern Notes: Hawks, Ndiaye, Magic, Raptors

The Hawks enter the upcoming campaign with the gloom of a racism scandal hanging over the franchise. In his season preview Adi Joseph of USA Today predicts Atlanta’s record will improve slightly, and the team will snag the No. 7 seed in the east despite the outside distractions that GM Danny Ferry‘s and majority owner Bruce Levenson’s comments have brought.

Here’s more from the Eastern Conference:

  • Hamady Ndiaye‘s contract with the Nets is non-guaranteed until October 25th, but if he remains on the roster past that date a $25K guarantee kicks in, Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders tweets.
  • The Raptors have one of the younger teams in the league and every significant player from last season is returning, and Basketball Insiders season preview predicts another Atlantic Division crown is on the way to Toronto.
  • While the Magic didn’t add any superstar players in free agency this offseason they still have been quite busy tweaking their roster. Ken Hornack of Fox Sports Florida runs down Orlando’s additions and what each brings to the franchise.

Atlantic Notes: Dolan, Knicks, Raptors, Garnett

Knicks owner James Dolan has been taking the credit for bringing Phil Jackson to New York on his latest PR tour without crediting powerful entertainment manager Irving Azoff for his role in the recruitment, writes Frank Isola of the New York Daily News.  Dolan is enjoying his preseason victory lap but Isola writes that he’s much harder to pin down when things aren’t working out at MSG.  Here’s more on the Knicks and the rest of the Atlantic Division..

  • Center Jason Smith is positively giddy about joining the Knicks this year, writes Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPNNewYork.com.  “Good energy level, smart, savvy player,” Smith said. “Pick-and-pop jumper, 15-17 foot midrange jumper, really going out there and giving it my all, selfless player, will do anything to help the team win.” Smith averaged 9.7 points and 5.8 rebounds in 26.8 minutes last season but played in only 31 games thanks to knee troubles.  If he can stay healthy, Smith could wind up being a significant contributor for the Knicks.
  • The staff at Basketball Insiders previewed the season ahead for the Raptors and Yannis Koutroupis selected rookie forward Bruno Caboclo as their best new addition.  General Manager Masai Ujiri was mocked for his shocking first-round pick but after watching Cabocio in summer league, it’s evident that the Brazilian is much more NBA-ready than anyone had predicted.
  • Now that we know Kevin Garnett will return to the Nets for the upcoming season, new coach Lionel Hollins sounds committed to giving him a bigger role than last season, writes Robert Windrem of Nets Daily.
  • Julian Edlow of WEEI.com looks at what we can expect from Celtics coach Brad Stevens as the club works its way through the rebuilding process.

And-Ones: McGuire, Heat, Garnett

Here is what’s going on around the league on Tuesday night:

Eddie Scarito contributed to this post.

Contract Details: Barbosa, Turkoglu, Roberts Jr.

Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders is always diligent in keeping us informed of the nitty gritty details for all of the contracts around the league, and after his latest round of updates, he figures there are 493 contracts in place, 400 of which are guaranteed, and at least 43 of which will have to be cut before the regular season begins (Twitter links). We’ll link to his team salary sheets, noting specific player revelations where they apply:

  • Leandro Barbosa‘s one-year pact for the minimum with the Warriors is partially guaranteed at $150K.
  • Hedo Turkoglu‘s one-year minimum deal with the Clippers is fully guaranteed.
  • Ronald Roberts Jr.‘s deal with the Sixers is for four years at the minimum salary, including a team option for the final year. This season is partially guaranteed at $35K.
  • Chris Crawford‘s two-year contract with the Cavs is indeed for the minimum, with a partial guarantee of $20K this year, and a fully non-guaranteed 2015/16.
  • Jerome Jordan‘s camp deal with the Nets is for the minimum, as expected. The one-year agreement will become partially guaranteed at $150K if he remains with Brooklyn through October 25.
  • Dionte Christmas, Vernon Macklin, and Kevin Jones have identical one-year deals with the Pelicans, each of which are non-guaranteed.

Eastern Rumors: James, Chalmers, Nets, Bosh

The Wizards struck a deal with one wing player for training camp, as Xavier Silas has agreed to spend the preseason with Washington for the second year in a row, and the team is nearing a deal with Damion James, another wingman, as Jorge Castillo of The Washington Post confirms, echoing the report we passed along earlier today from J. Michael of CSNWashington.com. Here’s more from the East:

  • Heat GM Andy Elisburg called Mario Chalmers before he re-signed with the team this summer to assure him that he was still in their plans and that they just needed to see what LeBron James would decide before circling back to them, as Bleacher Report’s Ethan Skolnick writes. Before that, Chalmers had been full of doubt about his free agency, as he tells Skolnick. “I didn’t think I’d be back,” Chalmers said. “I didn’t think that at all. I didn’t even think the Heat would want me back, to be honest. That’s how I felt like my playoff performance was, that they didn’t want me back, they wanted to go another direction. So that was in my mind, too, but I was, like, if it happens, it happens.”
  • Deron Williams told reporters including Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News that he hasn’t spoken with Jason Kidd since the former Nets coach left Brooklyn for Milwaukee. “I think it surprised everybody,” Williams said. “I don’t think anybody saw that coming. It was out of nowhere. I don’t even know enough about the situation. I’ve heard a lot of things, as you guys probably have, so I don’t know exactly what happened, but we’re excited about Lionel Hollins being our next coach and we wish J-Kidd the best of luck in Milwaukee, but we’re excited about Lionel.”
  • Hollins told reporters including Tim Bontemps of the New York Post that Kevin Garnett will be the Nets‘ starting power forward this season (Twitter link). All indications have been that the veteran big will play this season, and this should put to bed rumblings of an early retirement for good. The coach said that retirement hasn’t even been a point of discussion with Garnett, tweets Bondy.
  • In a mailbag answer, Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel suggests that the Heat will have overpaid for Chris Bosh if he doesn’t return to the player he was in Toronto. Miami inked Bosh to the second-biggest contract of the summer once LeBron decided to head back to Cleveland.

Chuck Myron contributed to this post.

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