Offseason Outlook: Dallas Mavericks
Guaranteed Contracts
- Dirk Nowitzki ($22,721,381)
- Vince Carter ($3,180,000)
- Jared Cunningham ($1,208,400)
- Jae Crowder ($788,872)
Options
- Shawn Marion ($9,316,796, Player)
- O.J. Mayo ($4,200,900, Player)1
Non-Guaranteed Contracts
- Josh Akognon ($788,872)2
- Bernard James ($788,872)3
Free Agents / Cap Holds
- Chris Kaman ($9,600,000)
- Anthony Morrow ($7,600,000)
- Darren Collison ($5,798,360)4
- Rodrigue Beaubois ($5,568,333)5
- Elton Brand ($3,990,950)
- No. 13 pick ($1,655,300)
- Mike James ($884,293)
- Brandan Wright ($884,293)
- (Petteri Koponen – $880,600)
Draft Picks
- 1st Round (13th overall)
- 2nd Round (44th overall)
Cap Outlook
- Guaranteed Salary: $27,898,653
- Options: $13,517,696
- Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,577,744
- Cap Holds: $36,862,129
- Total: $79,856,222
Of all the teams whose offseasons we've previewed so far, few, if any, have had their summer plans discussed and critiqued as often as the Mavericks. As soon as the team missed out on Deron Williams a year ago and settled for a handful of players on one-year contracts, the focus in Dallas shifted to what the Mavs would do this summer. It's now been two seasons since team management broke up the core of the 2011 championship roster, and as Dirk Nowitzki inches closer to the end of his playing career, patience appears to be wearing thin among local fans and media.
The thinking, back in 2011, was that the new Collective Bargaining Agreement would make it too costly to re-sign Tyson Chandler and J.J Barea and keep together a team that surprised many by beating the Heat in the 2011 Finals. Not only that, but taking payroll into tax territory would limit the team's ability to be flexible and make creative roster moves down the road. Owner Mark Cuban suggested that for the team to be a long-term contender, maintaining that flexibility was necessary. After the Mavs finished 10th in the West in 2012/13, fans are still waiting for Cuban to deliver on that promise of contention.
I don't disagree with Cuban's logic, and I think re-signing Chandler and Barea to the sort of deals they received from other teams would have been ill-advised. But there are other factors in the league's new CBA that have made it difficult for the Mavs to bring in elite outside talent. For one, rival suitors for free agents can no longer offer the same amount of years that the free agent's own team can. When Dallas pursued D-Will last summer, the Mavs only had the flexibility to offer him a four-year, $73.35MM contract, while the Nets could (and did) offer five years and $98.77MM. Maybe it was actually a poorly-timed filming of Shark Tank that convinced Williams to remain with the Nets, but I imagine that extra $25MM+ was a factor as well.
The Mavs have an attractive leadership group in place – Cuban running the franchise, Rick Carlisle coaching the team, and Nowitzki still thriving on the court – and Texas' lack of state taxes will always attract the interest of free agents. But the Mavs' pitches to Chris Paul and Dwight Howard this summer will have to be awfully convincing for one of them to ultimately end up in Dallas. After all, the Mavs' competition will be able to try to lure Paul and/or Howard by pointing to a talented young core (Rockets), possible cap space to sign both players (Hawks), or that extra year and extra money (Clippers for CP3, Lakers for D12).
The Mavericks' pursuit of elite free agents is further complicated by the fact that the club won't even have the cap room necessary to make one maximum offer without making another move or two. The most logical solution, which the team is reportedly pursuing, would be to package Shawn Marion with their lottery pick (No. 13) in a trade for multiple second-round picks. Unlike that first-rounder, second-round picks don't come with guaranteed cap holds, so the Mavs would be able to clear significant money off the cap in that sort of deal. Eliminating Marion and the cap hold for the lottery pick would give Dallas the flexibility to sign Paul or Howard to a maximum-salary contract and still have room for a couple more mid-tier free agents.
However, that plan relies heavily on either Paul or Howard coming to Dallas. Otherwise, the team will be giving up a veteran contributor (Marion) and a lottery pick for a chance to make a run at a group of second-tier free agents that will likely include Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Josh Smith, Brandon Jennings, and others. There are some good players in that group, and if Dallas could land one of them, add a point guard (Jarrett Jack or Jose Calderon would be nice fits), and fill out the rest of the roster with solid contributors, the offseason wouldn't be a disaster. But those additions almost certainly wouldn't be enough to restore the club to contender status, and anything short of that will likely be viewed as a disappointment by a fanbase with high expectations.
It's a tricky spot that Cuban and the Mavs find themselves in this summer, without any real leverage when it comes to landing top free agents. Unlike other clubs with cap space, the Mavs don't even have a wealth of trade assets — a future first-round pick is ticketed for the Thunder, and Jared Cunningham and Jae Crowder currently represent the team's only young prospects. Free agency is the team's best bet at landing a difference-maker, but to have a real shot at those elite players, Cuban will have to assume a role opposite the one he plays on the aforementioned Shark Tank, selling free agents on the Mavs with a convincing pitch of his own.
I don't expect Mavs management to settle for an offseason like 2012's, in which the team ended up with a handful of short-term solutions on one-year deals, so I'm looking forward to seeing Cuban and GM Donnie Nelson swing for the fences this summer. Given how creative they've been in the past, I'm cautiously optimistic they'll end up making the big splash fans have been waiting for, but there's certainly no clear-cut path to such a move.
Additional notes:
- Another way for the Mavs to eliminate the cap hold for the No. 13 pick from their books is to draft an international player, with both sides agreeing that the player will spend another year overseas. Dario Saric might be open to such an arrangement, but there's no other obvious candidate unless the Mavs reach on a lesser prospect.
- Vince Carter would have some trade value, but the Mavs were reluctant to move him at the 2012 deadline, which makes me believe the team thinks he's too good a bargain to give up, at only about $3MM per year. I'd say he and Nowitzki are probably the only locks to be on the 2013/14 roster.
Cap footnotes:
- At least one report has already indicated Mayo will decline this player option, making him a free agent. When that decision becomes official, his cap hold will be $4,824,000.
- Akognon's contract is currently fully non-guaranteed. It becomes fully guaranteed if he's not waived on or before December 1st.
- James' contract is currently fully non-guaranteed. It becomes fully guaranteed if he's not waived on or before July 15th.
- Because he met the starter criteria, Collison will now be eligible for a qualifying offer of $4,531,459 rather than $3,342,175.
- Beaubois will be eligible for a qualifying offer of $3,271,952.
Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.
Odds & Ends: Union, Jerrett, Green, Dirk
The NBPA is looking for its next executive director and there's no leading candidate to fill the job just yet, Jerry Stackhouse told Liz Mullen of Sports Business Journal (via Twitter). “We haven’t got a search firm in place; how can there be a leading candidate?,” said the longtime NBA veteran, who says that the union is looking at two or three firms and may nail one down after the Finals (link). Meanwhile, the players' union is likely to have their annual meeting in Las Vegas in August (link) and it stands to reason that they'll have their next leader appointed by then. Here's more from around the Association..
- Arizona forward Grant Jerrett is rising on draft boards, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter). Jerrett is only 19 and has impressed in workouts with great range for a 6'10" player. DraftExpress currently has him at the back end of the second round on their latest mock.
- Spurs guard Danny Green has asserted himself in the NBA just a few seasons removed from questioning his basketball career in the D-League, writes Alex Kennedy of USA Today. Kennedy notes that if Green hooked on elsewhere, he might not have found individual success.
- Dirk Nowitzki's career is likely winding down and Mac Engel of the Star-Telegram writes that he'll be extremely missed when his career with the Mavericks is through. The big man would like to play for a title again before calling it quits and Dallas is working diligently this summer to make a free agent splash.
Cavs Rumors: McLemore, Bynum, Oden, Granger
Sam Amico of FOX Sports Ohio leads off his latest column by going into more detail on Friday's report, which suggested the Cavaliers were weighing the possibility of drafting Ben McLemore first overall. With Dion Waiters already on board, the fit wouldn't necessarily be ideal, so it remains just one of many options Cleveland is considering. Amico has plenty more notes on the Cavs, so let's check out the highlights from his piece….
- Due to concerns about Anderson Varejao's ability to stay healthy, the Cavs are expected to focus on adding frontcourt depth this summer.
- Amico hints that Al Horford and Nikola Pekovic could be among the Cavs' offseason targets as the club looks to add another big man, though the Timberwolves will have the ability to match an offer sheet for the restricted Pekovic, and I'd be surprised if the Hawks traded Horford.
- Andrew Bynum isn't on Cleveland's radar, but the team is still eyeing Greg Oden, in spite of some skepticism about the health of his knees.
- The Cavs also have reservations about Danny Granger's knee problems, but still have interest if the Pacers consider moving him, which it sounds like they will.
- The Mavericks continue to "intensely" shop the No. 13 overall pick, with one offer asking for the Cavs' 31st and 33rd overall picks, along with a 2014 selection, in exchange for the 13th pick and Shawn Marion. Cleveland turned down that proposal, but the club remains a willing trade partner, with only Kyrie Irving viewed as untouchable.
- Cleveland remains interested in Alex Len and Otto Porter, but would probably want to trade down a little to draft either player, rather than selecting one of them first overall. However, trading down a few spots "appears very unlikely," according to Amico.
Dirk On Next Contract, Free Agency, Draft
Almost two years removed from leading a title run in which the Mavericks won their first championship in franchise history, Dirk Nowitzki was on the Fitzsimmons and Durrett show on 103.3 FM today (hat tip to Jon Machota of SportsDayDFW), where he made it clear that significant progress needs to be made this summer:
“If we don’t get the two monsters (making reference to Dwight Howard and Chris Paul) then we got to find another way…through sign-and-trades or other free agents that are out there…It’s time to take a step forward and again be a threat in the playoffs.”
Following his radio appearance, Dirk spoke with ESPN Dallas and discussed the prospects of a pay cut on his next contract, his feelings on this year's free agency compared to last year, his role in the upcoming draft, along with the notion that breaking up the Mavs team that won it all in 2011 ended up being the right thing to do. You can read the transcript below (Bryan Gutierrez of ESPNDallas.com):
On whether or not he has an idea about how low he's willing to go in terms of a pay cut on his next contract:
“Not really. We’ll cross that bridge when we get there. It kind of depends on what team we can get, too. I’ve always said that (Mark) Cuban has taken care of me for a long, long time. Money isn’t something I play for. I want to compete. I want to win. We’ll play this year and hopefully have a great team and then I’ll come off the books. Then, we can all sit together again and see how many guys we can get and who is out there. Saying all of that, I think that’s something I haven’t really thought about yet in terms of an actual number. We’d love to be as competitive as we can be.”
Dirk plans to use the fact that he's willing to take a pay cut as a selling point to free agents:
"Yeah. Obviously, I’m not going to make $23 million again. I know that. I’m 36 next summer, so this is going to be my last year of making money like a franchise player. That gives us even more cap space next year. I’m sure it’s going to come up. We’ll see if that has an impact on anything or helps us bring anything. We’re obviously trying to sell the big picture and that’s one small part of it.”
How the feelings going into this summer compare to last summer with regard to gearing up for a run at free agents:
“I feel like we’re almost more all in, everybody is even more excited. Last year, (Deron Williams) would have been great, but he was kind of the only free agent that was out there that made sense for us. This year, I feel like there are a couple of more options. Cuban is so fired up not to go through another year like we just had. He’s all in to make something happen. If we don’t get a top free agent, whether it’s through other things like sign-and-trades and whatever, he’s committed to bringing this franchise back to where it belongs and that’s in the top four in the West and having home-court advantage. We’ve got some ways to go but as long as everyone is all in, it should be a fun summer.”
On just how much influence he'll have as he joins team brass in the war room on draft night:
"I think that’s up to Cuban and (Donnie Nelson). I’m not going to make that decision. That’s a business decision they obviously need to make. I don’t understand the cap room situation and stuff like that as good as they do, so they need to make that decision. If that’s the case, then that’s what we need to do. We can go even all in more with free agents if we do that.
If we don’t, we’ll see what’s available at 13. There are some interesting players in that spot. There’s some bigs and some guards. Honestly, if you look at our roster, we’ve got five guys. We need help from the top to the bottom. We can use big guys, we can use guards and we can use shooters and athletes. I’m sure we can find some help if we keep the pick.”
On changing his stance and conceding that breaking up the 2011 championship team was the right thing to do:
“Yeah, in the lockout year, we were hoping that we would have everybody back. Now, a year further along, I’m turning 35, (Jason Kidd) just retired and turned 40 and (Jason Terry) is going to turn 36. I’m not sure how far we could have ridden it. It would have been interesting to see and I would have loved to seen it. Like I mentioned in the interview, the lockout year was tough on the older guys and tough on their bodies. It was a lot of games heading into the playoffs. I’m not sure if we would have had a decent chance to repeat there. Business-wise, we had to make the decision. Looking back at it now, I think it was the right one.”
Dario Saric Considering Withdrawing From Draft
Projected first-round pick Dario Saric is leaning toward withdrawing his name from draft consideration, according to ESPN.com's Chad Ford. While Saric is receiving plenty of interest and could easily be a lottery pick, the Croatian forward feels as if he's not quite ready for the NBA and wants to spend at least one more year playing overseas, says Ford.
Although NCAA underclassmen were required to make a decision on their draft status back in April, the rules are different for international prospects declaring their intent early. As we outlined back in March, international players like Saric can withdraw from draft consideration at any point up until 4:00pm CST on June 17th.
Even if Saric isn't interested in playing in the NBA for the 2013/14 season, it could be in his best interests to remain in the draft anyway. Some teams, like the Mavericks at No. 13, may actually be more inclined to select Saric if it means they can stash him for a year, removing his cap hold from their books for this summer. Next year's draft class figures to be stronger as well, meaning Saric could be selected later in 2014 even if his stock doesn't decline.
According to Ford, the Pelicans (sixth overall pick), Trail Blazers (10th), Thunder (12th), and Mavs have all shown "significant interest" in Saric.
Kotoch On Bledsoe, Magic, Oladipo, Noel, Cavs
Joe Kotoch of SheridanHoops.com has Nerlens Noel atop the latest version of his mock draft, and he has news about the Cavaliers, Noel and other potential lottery storylines. We'll round up the highlights here:
- The Magic and Clippers have had conversations about Eric Bledsoe, according to Kotoch. Chad Ford of ESPN.com wrote a week ago that if Orlando took a shooting guard in the draft, the team would have interest in trading Arron Afflalo for Bledsoe and Caron Butler.
- Speaking of the Magic and shooting guards, Victor Oladipo has eclipsed Ben McLemore on Orlando's draft board.
- Noel's torn ACL won't allow him to work out, but he'll visit with the Cavs on June 20th.
- The Thunder are prioritizing centers at No. 12, unless C.J. McCollum falls to them.
- An established wing player is what the Timberwolves are seeking as they reportedly dangle Derrick Williams in an effort to move up from No. 9.
- The Trail Blazers are in search of a big man who can defend and rebound in exchange for the tenth pick.
- The Mavericks would also "love" to trade pick No. 13, Kotoch writes.
Pacific Notes: World Peace, Howard, Kings, Suns
Let's round up any and all links from the West's Pacific division in this post tonight:
- Confirming Jason Jones' report from earlier, the Kings announced the firings of assistant coaches Jim Eyen, Alex English, and Clifford Ray via press release. However, former assistant Bobby Jackson will be retained in some fashion, but will not serve as an assistant under Michael Malone.
Earlier updates:
- The Lakers have granted the Hawks and Bobcats permission to speak to Darvin Ham, currently an assistant in L.A., about joining their staffs, tweets Mark Medina of the L.A. Daily News.
- Metta World Peace will continue to defer to his agent, Marc Cornstein, on what he should do about his $7.7MM player option with the Lakers in 2013/14, writes Mark Medina of the L.A. Daily News, who exclusively spoke with the veteran forward. World Peace has until June 25 to make a decision. If he exercises his option, he will force the Lakers to make a decision on whether or not to use the amnesty provision on him.
- While the Lakers certainly have a built-in advantage when it comes to signing Dwight Howard, there are plenty of factors that make him obtainable for other teams, writes ESPN salary cap guru Larry Coon. In this Insider only piece, Coon breaks down what it will take for Howard to land with the Rockets or Mavericks, both of which are considered realistic destinations.
- It looks like new Kings head coach Michael Malone will not retain any assistant coaches from Keith Smart's staff from last season, tweets Jason Jones of the Sacramento Bee. According to the team's media guide, Smart's staff consisted of assistants Alex English, Jim Eyen, Bobby Jackson and Clifford Ray.
- Suns managing partner Robert Sarver understands that his team's rebuilding process could be long and painful, writes Paul Coro for USA Today. With the No. 5 pick in a draft that seems devoid of high-end talent, and not enough star power to lure one of the big-time free agents, franchises like Phoenix need this patient approach to avoid the pitfalls of trying to rebuild too quickly.
Draft Rumors: Thomas, Cavs, Porter, Wizards
There are three teams still alive in the NBA playoffs, but draft season is already upon us, with news of potential trades, players jockeying for the top pick, and fringe prospects simply hoping to hear their name called on June 27th. Here's the latest:
- Bob Finnan of The News-Herald hears the Kings have offered Isaiah Thomas to the Cavs in exchange for the No. 19 pick, though he hasn't confirmed that rumor. Thomas, a starter in Sacramento, would back up Kyrie Irving in Cleveland.
- Finnan unveils the latest version of his mock draft, writing that the Wizards hope the Cavs pass on Otto Porter.
- John Wall tells Eric Detweiler of the Washington Post that he thinks the team should use the No. 3 pick on "a four man that can pick and pop," leading Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com to point to Anthony Bennett as Wall's likely favorite (Twitter link).
- The Timberwolves will work out several big men later this month, including Steven Adams and Mike Muscala, according to Jerry Zgoda of the Star Tribune (Twitter link).
- The Wizards are giving second-round hopeful Travon Woodall his first pre-draft workout, reports Josh Newman of SNY.tv.
- Zeke Marshall, another second-round prospect, has worked out for the Mavs and will also do so for the Pistons, Rockets, Suns, Lakers, Bulls and Pacers, according to the Akron Beacon Journal. Agent Dino Pergola said other teams could be in the mix, too.
- Brandon Triche will work out with nine teams, including the Lakers, tweets Dave McMenamin of ESPNLosAngeles.com. Mike Waters of The Post-Standard identifies the Blazers, Kings and Knicks as three of those clubs.
- The Plain Dealer's Terry Pluto makes the case that the Cavs should take Ben McLemore first overall.
Odds & Ends: Celtics, Heat, Cuban
The Celtics are at a crossroads and the shrouded future of Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce are a large reason why. Pierce is only guaranteed $5MM next year if the Celtics waive him before June 30th. But he's owed $15.3MM next year if they decide to make another run with this group, or deal him for assets.
Sources revealed to Jackie MacMullan at ESPNBoston.com yesterday, that Garnett will play next year even if Pierce doesn't come back. But it's likely the aging star would retire if the Celtics blow it up entirely. Garnett still has 2 years and over $24MM left on the 3-year deal he signed last summer.
Then again, anything that's considered "likely" for the Celtics will be "laughed at" because nothing is certain at this point. Plus, trading Pierce and excavating the rest of the Celtics' aging roster will be hard to do with the money still owed Jason Terry, Brandon Bass and Courtney Lee.
Chris Forsberg at ESPNBoston.com attacked the Celtics' offseason plans with a four-pronged approach, and he finally finished with his fourth hypothetical: a complete teardown. Starting over for the C's involves general manager Danny Ainge unloading the rest of the nucleus that won the Celtics a title in 2008, and was just one fourth quarter collapse away from a second in 2010.
Here's what else is happening around the league as the Pacers beat the Heat 91-77 to force a game 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals on Monday night.
- Heat owner Micky Arison doesn't care about the summer of 2014 when LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade all have early termination options. Arison told the Sun-Sentinel's Ira Winderman he's only focused on winning a title this year.
- The Oklahoman continues their series of 2012/13 Thunder season reviews with beat reporter John Rohde looking at Nick Collison (also: Collison grades & roundtable with Rohde, Tramel and Mayberry).
- Rohde also spent most of the night on Twitter answering questions about the Thunder's offseason questions.
- Mavericks owner, Mark Cuban, spoke with Ben & Skin at KRLD-FM 105.3, and the Dallas Morning News has the highlights of their chat.
- Mike Malone will be formally introduced to the media as the Kings' new head coach on Monday.
- The Bulls head athletic trainer, Fred Tedeschi, was named the 2012/13 Joe O'Toole NBA Athletic Trainer of the Year.
Draft Links: Schroeder, Larkin, Cavs, Mavs
The Bucks, who pick 15th and 43rd later this month, are looking seriously at guards and small forwards, as Charles F. Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. The Bucks worked out six players, all of them guards, on Friday and with Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis' uncertain futures, they're looking closely at German import Dennis Schroeder and Shane Larkin from Miami.
Ellis has a player option for $11MM next season with the Bucks, but if he opts out before June 20th, he'll become an unrestricted free agent. Jennings is a restricted free agent looking for a max contract this offseason, but recent reports point towards the Bucks looking to re-sign Ellis instead of Jennings. Another point in Ellis' favor: the Bucks hired former Hawks coach, Larry Drew, when Jennings would have preferred Kelvin Sampson.
Regardless of the Bucks' attempts to bring back J.J. Redick, Ellis and/or Jennings, they're still looking to shore up their backcourt. Here are some more links as we're now inside of four weeks until the big night.
- The ostensible top pick on that big night, Nerlens Noel, is part of the pre-draft positional preview focusing on centers by Mary Schmitt Boyer of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. The Cavs, of course, own that first pick, and Boyer keys in on Noel's rehab in Birmingham from that torn knee ligament.
- The Mavericks continue to shop the 13th overall pick in an effort to clear cap space this offseason, and they're not asking for much, several executives tell Chris Mannix of SI.com (Twitter link).
- Mannix also got input from executives from around the league on this year's top foreign prospects, with Dario Saric and aforementioned Schroeder topping the list.
- Local product, Doug Anderson, highlighted a group of second-round prospects who worked out with the Pistons, observes Perry A. Farrell of the Free Press. Solomon Hill, Brandon Paul, D.J. Stephens, Will Clyburn, and Carrick Felix were the others in attendance.
- Kansas center Jeff Withey will work out for the Knicks and Nets before the June 27th draft, says his agent, Darren Matsubara, to ESPNNewYork.com's Jared Zwerling.
- The Timberwolves are looking to bring Lehigh senior C.J. McCollum in for a workout, but they still haven't scheduled a time yet, says ESPN1500's Darren Wolfson (Twitter link).
- HoopsHype.com just updated their list of players past workouts and future workouts by team.
Chuck Myron contributed to this post