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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Denver Nuggets

June 19th, 2024 at 8:22pm CST by Luke Adams

After winning the first championship in franchise history a year ago, the Nuggets kept their starting five intact but lost a pair of reserves who played key roles during that title run. While Bruce Brown and Jeff Green were the first two players off the bench for Denver in last year’s postseason, the Nuggets weren’t in position to compete with Indiana’s offer for Brown – which included a $22MM starting salary – or the Rockets’ bid for Green (an $8MM starting salary, plus incentives).

The Nuggets’ plan to address those holes in their rotation centered on youth. In addition to drafting three experienced prospects who had a combined 13 college seasons under their belts (Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett, and Hunter Tyson), Denver figured second-year players Christian Braun and Peyton Watson would be ready to take on larger roles, as would fourth-year big man Zeke Nnaji.

The Nuggets’ plan wasn’t entirely misguided — Braun, in particular, had a strong sophomore season, earning head coach Michael Malone‘s trust and a spot in Denver’s playoff rotation. But Watson was up and down, Nnaji’s playing time dropped to just 9.9 minutes per game, and the three rookies weren’t as NBA-ready as the front office had hoped.

By the time the Nuggets were eliminated from the playoffs, there were only really six players (the starters, plus Braun) that Malone felt like he could count on, with even veteran reserves like Justin Holiday and Reggie Jackson seeing very limited minutes in the postseason.

The Nuggets don’t need to overhaul their roster. The starting five of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter, Aaron Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope remained extremely effective in 2023/24, registering the second-best net rating of any lineup that played at least 250 minutes together (+13.6). But Malone simply had to rely on that five-man group too heavily — it logged 958 total minutes together across 48 games, while the league’s second most-used lineup (the Thunder’s starters) played 799 minutes in 63 outings.

The challenge for Denver’s front office this offseason is twofold. First, can the Nuggets keep that starting five intact for another year? Caldwell-Pope holds a $15.4MM player option that he’s expected to decline, and there will certainly be rival suitors looking to steal the three-and-D stalwart away from the 2023 champions.

Second, whether Caldwell-Pope re-signs or whether Denver has to elevate Braun to its starting five, can the Nuggets do a better job of constructing a reliable second unit? The salary cap situation won’t make it easy — with Caldwell-Pope back, team salary could rise above the restrictive second tax apron, and even without him on the books, the club projects to be a taxpayer.

General manager Calvin Booth earned kudos a year ago for the moves he made to help turn the Nuggets into a championship team, but most of the core was built when Tim Connelly was running the front office. This offseason will represent Booth’s biggest challenge yet, as he looks to put together a roster capable of returning to the NBA Finals.

The Nuggets’ Offseason Plan

The Nuggets hold Caldwell-Pope’s full Bird rights, so assuming he turns down his ’24/25 player option, as expected, there’s nothing stopping them from offering as much as it takes to re-sign him. It simply comes down to what sort of commitment management and ownership are comfortable with.

Caldwell-Pope isn’t a particularly dynamic offensive player, but he has made 41.5% of his three-point attempts since arriving in Denver and is one of the keys to the defense — he and Gordon take on the most challenging assignments on that end of the floor. That makes him an extremely valuable role player, and at age 31, a team can feel relatively confident about investing in him for the next three or four seasons and not having his performance fall off significantly in the later years of that contract.

An annual salary of $20MM+ certainly seems within reach for Caldwell-Pope, so unless he’s willing to accept any sort of discount to remain in Denver, the team may have to offer something in the neighborhood of Gordon’s current deal ($87MM over four years) to retain him. That would likely mean operating over the second apron unless the Nuggets can shed salary elsewhere on the roster.

If Denver does look to cut costs, Nnaji would be an obvious candidate to be moved. He’s entering the first season of a front-loaded four-year, $32MM contract that he signed last fall. At the time, it seemed like a reasonable investment, with Nnaji seemingly poised to take on a larger role in Green’s absence, perhaps even serving as Jokic’s primary backup at center. But 2023/24 was the 23-year-old’s worst NBA season, as he averaged just 3.2 PPG and 2.2 RPG on .463/.261/.677 shooting. Needless to say, if he were eligible for restricted free agency this summer, a four-year, $32MM deal would be a long shot.

Nnaji’s salary isn’t massive, and he’s still young enough to be a bounce-back candidate, but his value has slipped so precipitously in the last year that it would take draft assets to move off his four-year contract. The Nuggets may prefer to preserve those assets for a move that actually upgrades the roster instead of just saving some money.

If we assume Caldwell-Pope re-signs and Nnaji returns, the Nuggets’ roster-building options aren’t extensive. Jokic, Murray, and Gordon aren’t going anywhere, and the team’s top decision-makers signaled at the end of the season that Porter wouldn’t be moved either. No one else is earning more than $5.25MM – or $3.1MM, if Jackson declines his $5.25MM player option – and if Denver is operating over the second apron, the team won’t be able to aggregate salaries in a trade.

A lack of trade activity would leave two paths for filling out the bench: hoping for improvement from young players and scouring the free agent market for minimum-salary bargains. As we discussed above, that was the strategy that didn’t work particularly well last year, though there’s reason to hope it could be more successful this time around. Players often make major strides between their first and second or second and third seasons, so guys like Watson, Strawther, and Pickett could follow Braun’s path and become more consistent performers in 2024/25.

It’d be risky to count on that though, so the Nuggets ought to be a little more aggressive seeking out a rotation player or two who would be willing to sign for the minimum. Denver can offer a good situation for veterans looking to contend for a championship and potentially play regular minutes. Torrey Craig, Kyle Lowry, Lonnie Walker, Delon Wright, Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Mason Plumlee, and Daniel Theis are some potential low-cost targets I like.

The Nuggets will also have to make a decision on Vlatko Cancar, who missed the entire 2023/24 season due to an ACL tear and has a $2.35MM team option for ’24/25. Cancar steadily took on a larger role over his first four years in Denver (2019-23) and his injury was a factor in why the team’s bench didn’t live up to expectations last season. Having Cancar available wouldn’t have entirely turned things around, but he showed some real promise in the championship season, averaging 5.0 PPG and 2.1 RPG with a 37.4% three-point percentage in 60 games (14.8 MPG). If the club feels good about where his health is at following his ACL recovery, he should be back.

Finally, Denver holds the 28th and 56th overall picks in this year’s draft. The front office is unlikely to find an immediate contributor at No. 56, but the other selection could prove useful. There have been rumblings that the Nuggets have made Dayton’s DaRon Holmes II a draft promise — if he’s the target and the team believes he’ll be available early in the second round, exploring a trade back would make sense, since the luxury tax impact of an early second-rounder could be quite a bit less than that of a late first-rounder.

Of the Nuggets’ extension candidates, Murray and Gordon are the ones worth keeping the closest eye on, as both players could become free agents in 2025. Murray has just one year left on his current contract, while Gordon has a player option for 2025/26.

Murray could make himself eligible for a super-max contract (starting at up to 35% of the 2025/26 cap instead of 30%) if he makes an All-NBA team next season. That idea may be tempting, given that Booth suggested last October the Nuggets would open to offering Murray a super-max deal. But it’s a risky move for a player who has battled injuries in recent years, including an ACL tear that cost him the entire 2021/22 season. Murray could still sign for up to $208MM over four years on a standard maximum-salary deal this summer, which would be a pretty nice payday if Denver is willing to offer it.

As for Gordon, he’ll become eligible in September for an extension that could be worth up to about $143MM over four years. That’d be a huge commitment for a player who is a fourth option on offense, but the former lottery pick has been such a perfect fit alongside Jokic in Denver on both sides of the ball that he might be worth it, especially with the salary cap expected to rise by 10% annually over the life of the deal.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Nuggets, Gillespie’s qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,093,637). It would include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

  • No. 28 overall pick ($2,538,240 cap hold)
  • No. 56 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $2,538,240

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Nuggets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Nuggets project to operate over the cap and over the first apron. If they move above the second apron, they would lose access to the taxpayer mid-level exception.

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,183,000
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Orlando Magic

June 17th, 2024 at 2:56pm CST by Luke Adams

After spending a full decade alternately mired in mediocrity (in the good years) or dwelling in the NBA’s cellar (in the bad), the Magic had a breakthrough in 2023/24.

Orlando’s 47-35 record was the team’s best mark since Dwight Howard was on the roster (2010/11), and while the club didn’t win a playoff series, its three first-round wins vs. Cleveland topped its combined postseason win total (two) across the previous 11 years. It was the second straight year in which the Magic made major strides — after winning just 22 games in 2021/22, they boosted that total to 34 in ’22/23 and 47 this past season.

The good news for the Magic is that their young core is largely responsible for that surge up the standings. Orlando’s top three scorers in 2023/24 were Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs, all of whom will still be on their team-friendly rookie scale contracts in ’24/25. The franchise is in position to keep those players under team control for years to come.

The bad news? Well, “bad” may be an overstatement, but Wagner and Suggs are due for rookie scale extensions this offseason, with Banchero becoming eligible for a rookie scale extension of his own in 2025. That means the young core will be getting a lot more expensive over the next couple years, and the front office still needs more talent to become a legitimate contender in the Eastern Conference.

The Magic have managed their books well – no one made more than $17.4MM last season and there’s no guaranteed money on the cap beyond 2026 – so they’re in position to comfortably extend those cornerstone players. But the rising cost of the roster going forward means the 2024 offseason will be a critical opportunity for the Magic to continue making meaningful upgrades while they still have cap room available to do so.

The Magic’s Offseason Plan

Let’s start with the Magic’s cap outlook. They only have about $66MM on their books for the seven players on guaranteed contracts for 2024/25, but we can probably add Jonathan Isaac‘s $17.4MM non-guaranteed salary to that total.

Although Isaac – who appeared in just 11 games across the three previous seasons for health reasons – didn’t play big minutes in 2023/24, he suited up for 58 games and provided a reminder in his limited role (15.8 MPG) of why he was considered a future Defensive Player of the Year contender early in his NBA career. I can’t see him being waived, given the impact he’s capable of making on defense even as a part-timer.

Adding Isaac’s salary and a $3.6MM cap hold for Orlando’s first-round pick (No. 18) brings us to just over $87MM. Throw in three minimum-salary cap holds to get to 12 roster spots and the Magic end up with about $50MM in potential cap room.

Now, it’s important to clarify that Orlando would have to make certain sacrifices to fully take advantage of that $50MM. Joe Ingles ($11MM) and Moritz Wagner ($8MM) have team options; Caleb Houstan has a non-guaranteed salary ($2MM); and the Magic may want to try to re-sign free agents like Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris, and Goga Bitadze, all of whom would have cap holds to account for (ranging from $25.5MM for Fultz to just $2.1MM for Bitadze).

While turning down those options and renouncing all those free agents would get the Magic to $50MM in room, I’m skeptical they’ll go that route, given how inclined they’ve been in recent years to retain their own players.

But let’s say the team guarantees Houston’s salary, brings back one (not both) of Fultz or Harris for a deal in the range of the full mid-level ($12-13MM), declines the Ingles and Wagner options in the hopes of bringing them back for the veteran’s minimum and $8MM, respectively, and reaches a new agreement with Bitadze. That could still leave Orlando with upwards of $36-37MM in cap room to use, since Houston’s salary and Bitadze’s cap hold are so modest and Wagner and Ingles could be re-signed after the room is used up.

This is a roundabout way of saying that even if the Magic opt for continuity, they should still be in position to open up enough cap room to splurge on at least one starter-caliber player, and perhaps multiple rotation pieces.

Orlando has been mentioned as a possible Paul George landing spot, but that feels like a long shot. I expect George’s decision to ultimately come down to the Clippers and Sixers. The Magic have also been linked to Klay Thompson, Malik Monk, and D’Angelo Russell, all of whom look to me like much more plausible targets.

As talented offensively as both Banchero and Wagner are, neither of them has been a consistent threat from beyond the three-point line (Wagner was solid in his first two seasons but plummeted to 28.1% in ’23/24), which means the Magic would ideally surround them with two or three shooters. Suggs (39.7%) and Wendell Carter (37.4%) set new career highs in three-point percentage this past season, but Orlando’s roster isn’t exactly loaded with marksmen. Adding shooting will be the top priority this summer for a team that ranked dead last among 30 NBA teams in three-pointers made per game (11.0) in 2023/24.

Thompson, Monk, and Russell aren’t perfect players. Thompson has lost a step since his prime years due to his age (34) and a pair of major leg injuries; Monk’s three-point percentage has dropped over the past couple seasons and was all the way down to 35.0% in 2023/24; and Russell is a subpar defender whose weaknesses have been exposed in the last two postseasons.

Still, there are reasons to like all three fits. Thompson is one of the best shooters in NBA history and would bring championship experience to a relatively young team. Monk would add a new level of play-making to the Magic’s backcourt and would make them less reliant on Banchero and Wagner offensively. Russell is a talented scorer, a solid distributor, and – most importantly – an elite shooter (.415 3PT% on 7.2 attempts per game in ’23/24). Any of those three players would provide some offensive punch for an unbalanced Magic team that ranked third in defensive rating and 22nd in offensive rating.

Of the three, Thompson looks to me like the most intriguing fit, assuming he’s truly willing to leave Golden State. The Magic could potentially offer him an extremely lucrative short-term deal using their cap room, overpaying him for the next two seasons and then having his contract come off the books when he’s 36 and when Banchero’s next contract is about to take effect.

If Orlando strikes out on guys like Thompson and Monk, a few other free agents I view as possible fits include Tobias Harris, Gary Trent, and Buddy Hield. Again, given how good their defense already is, the Magic don’t necessarily need to be targeting two-way impact players like OG Anunoby or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. They can afford to add a below-average defender if the trade-off on offense is strong enough.

If free agency doesn’t yield the type of upgrade the Magic are looking for, turning to the trade market would be a viable option. Orlando controls all of its future first-round picks, as well as the Nuggets’ 2025 first-rounder (top-five protected), so the club could put together a strong offer that includes multiple valuable draft assets without mortgaging its future at all.

While determining how the Magic will use their cap room is a more fun subject for speculation, it’s worth stressing that trying to workout extensions for Wagner and Suggs will also be a crucial part of the team’s offseason. Those negotiations could be tricky — both Wagner and Suggs are valuable assets, but neither is the sort of player who is a slam dunk for a maximum-salary offer, so they won’t necessarily get done early in July like Tyrese Haliburton, Anthony Edwards, and LaMelo Ball did a year ago.

Of the two players, Wagner is closer to max-worthy, and it wouldn’t shock me if Orlando ultimately puts that offer on the table for him. Something that comes in a little below the max (say, $175MM over five years) isn’t out of the realm of possibility either. Suggs likely won’t be in line for that sort of payday, but he substantially improved his value by making an All-Defensive team and raising his shooting percentages in year three. I could see the former No. 4 overall pick getting into the nine figures (ie. $100MM+) on a long-term extension.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jonathan Isaac ($17,400,000)
  • Caleb Houstan ($2,019,699)
    • Houstan’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 30.
  • Total: $19,419,699

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Restricted Free Agents

  • Chuma Okeke ($7,399,732 qualifying offer / $15,800,139 cap hold): Bird rights
  • Total (cap holds): $15,800,139

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Magic, Harris’ qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,093,637). Schofield is no longer eligible to sign a two-way contract and would also have a qualifying offer worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,244,249). Those offers would each include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

  • No. 18 overall pick ($3,639,120 cap hold)
  • No. 47 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $3,639,120

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Wendell Carter (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of October 1.
  • Markelle Fultz (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.
  • Gary Harris (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible on June 30 (one day only).
  • Caleb Houstan (veteran)
  • Jonathan Isaac (veteran)
  • Jalen Suggs (rookie scale)
  • Franz Wagner (rookie scale)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Magic’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Magic project to operate under the cap.

  • Room exception: $8,006,000
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Los Angeles Clippers

June 15th, 2024 at 2:56pm CST by Luke Adams

It has now been five years since word broke in the middle of an early-July night that Kawhi Leonard, fresh off a championship run in Toronto, would be signing with the Clippers and would be joined by Paul George, who was being traded from Oklahoma City to Los Angeles.

The Clippers’ results across those five years have been solid relative to the team’s dismal overall track record — three of the top six winning percentages in the franchise’s 54-year history have come in the past five seasons. But it has been a disappointing stretch on the whole, given the championship aspirations the club has had since the two L.A. natives returned home in 2019.

The Clippers have won just three playoff series with Leonard and George on the roster, making it beyond the first round only once, in 2021. Of course, making deep postseason runs is a challenge when one or both of your stars aren’t available. Leonard and George appeared in all 13 Clippers playoff games in 2020, but since then, at least one of them has missed some or all of every postseason.

Leonard tore his ACL during the 2021 playoffs, which cost him the entire following season and the 2022 postseason too. A knee sprain sidelined George for the 2023 playoffs, while Leonard was able to suit up for just two of five first-round games. This past spring, George was healthy, but Leonard was available for just two of six first-round contests vs. Dallas, and was hampered by a knee issue when he did play.

Leonard’s and George’s injury problems, which have affected their availability during the regular season as well, have put a cap on what the Clippers are able to accomplish. But even if both players – and former MVPs James Harden and Russell Westbrook – were fully healthy during this year’s postseason, it’s unclear whether this roster had legitimate championship upside.

As good as those four guys (especially Leonard and George) still are when they’re performing at the peak of their powers, they’re not at the same level they were in their respective primes. The youngest player of the quartet, Leonard, will be 33 later this month. Kawhi is also the only one under contract for next season, with George and Westbrook holding player options for 2024/25 while Harden is headed for unrestricted free agency.

As they prepare to step out from the shadow of their more accomplished Crypto.com Arena co-tenants and move into their extravagant new Inglewood arena, the Clippers will want to do all they can to keep their championship window cracked open. Simply running it back with a roster that hasn’t won a playoff series since 2021 doesn’t feel satisfactory, but upgrading this group won’t be easy, given the limited resources the front office will have at its disposal.

The Clippers’ Offseason Plan

After extending Leonard in January and head coach Tyronn Lue, the Clippers will be focused in the coming weeks on new deals for George, Harden, and Westbrook.

Since Leonard agreed to a three-year, $152MM deal that was below his maximum in terms of both years and dollars (he could’ve gotten four years and $221MM), there has been a belief that the Clippers wanted to reach a similar agreement with George, who has had made the exact same salary as Kawhi in each of the past three seasons. But if George were willing to sign for the same amount as Leonard, that deal would likely already be done, which suggests he’s either pushing for a maximum salary (approximately $160MM over three years) or a fourth year — or both.

If they’re determined to keep him, the Clippers probably can’t afford to get too coy with the George negotiations, since the Sixers are believed to have made the star forward their No. 1 target and have more than enough cap room to offer him up to approximately $212MM over four years.

Will the Clippers tack on that fourth year? If so, they could top Philadelphia’s offer by about $9MM in total (they can’t offer a fifth year due to the Over-38 rule), but maybe the idea of playing with two younger stars (Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey) in a less competitive Eastern Conference appeals to George. While Embiid’s injury history has been viewed as a possible red flag for premier free agents who are considering the Sixers, it doesn’t look all that bad when stacked up next to Leonard’s.

Los Angeles’ ability to retain George could have an impact on what the team is willing to offer Harden, since bringing back both players would almost certainly push the Clippers’ team salary above the second tax apron, whereas just retaining one likely wouldn’t.

When Harden accepted a two-year, $68.6MM deal from the Sixers in 2022, it was viewed as a “hometown” discount, since he turned down a $47MM+ player option to sign that contract. But if Harden is expecting to make up the money he feels he gave up two years ago, he may be in for a rude awakening. Unlike George, Harden doesn’t seem to have another suitor looming as a threat to push his price tag higher (he didn’t last summer either, which is one reason why he accepted his second-year player option with Philadelphia instead of testing free agency).

The Clippers would likely be more aggressive with their offer for Harden if George walks, but if PG13 is in the fold, how high will L.A. go? Maybe $60MM over two years? $75MM over three? Harden is still a dynamic scorer and play-maker, but he’s entering his age-35 season and isn’t the same player he was in his prime, so the club will have to be careful about the later seasons of any multiyear deal. At the same time, we saw how quickly things turned sour in Philadelphia when Harden believed he wasn’t being properly valued, so the Clips won’t want to low-ball him.

Westbrook’s case isn’t any simpler. The 35-year-old is coming off a $3.8MM salary and will presumably decline his $4MM player option now that the Clippers hold his Early Bird rights and can offer him the sort of raise they couldn’t a year ago. But Westbrook was somewhat redundant on this roster following the acquisition of Harden, so assuming Harden returns, how enthusiastic will the Clippers be about giving Westbrook that raise? There are probably better fits for that roster spot, and from Westbrook’s perspective, there may be better fits around the NBA for his skill set.

Having taken a look at these three players’ situations, I should circle back and clarify one point — Clippers owner Steve Ballmer is the richest team owner in North American professional sports. If Lawrence Frank and the front office convince him that bringing back George, Harden, and Westbrook at any cost is the right move from the franchise, I can’t imagine Ballmer would hesitate to sign the necessary checks.

But giving those three players lucrative new contracts may not be in the Clippers’ best interests from a roster-building perspective, both because it would limit their options to address the rest of the roster and because the Harden/Westbrook fit was far from seamless. They’ll have to be wary about being dragged into a bidding war for any of those three FAs.

Evaluating the Clippers’ options to fill out the rest of the roster hinges in large part on what happens with their stars, since having George on the books for $49MM+ or having him leave for nothing would put the club in two very different positions from both a talent and financial perspective. Ditto for Harden.

If we assume George and Harden return, the Clippers would only be able to offer minimum-salary contracts to free agent targets and wouldn’t be able to aggregate salaries or take back more salary than they send out in a trade. They also wouldn’t be able to trade cash, and most of their future first-round picks are tied up due to previous deals. They could move their 2030 first-rounder and a 2031 swap, as well as their 2030 and 2031 second-rounders.

Norman Powell is one of the NBA’s most underrated shooters, having made 42.3% of 4.9 attempts per game since joining the Clippers. The floor spacing he provides is important, so I expect he’ll return. Ivica Zubac and Terance Mann are valuable role players at their current price point (around $11MM) and should remain in L.A. too.

On the other hand, P.J. Tucker, who will pick up a player option that’s also in the neighborhood of $11MM, is no longer a valuable asset at age 39. The Clippers will presumably explore moving him, but even attaching a first-round pick to his expiring deal might not bring back a high-level rotation player, since trade partners will be seeking draft compensation simply to take on Tucker’s unwanted contract.

Bones Hyland wasn’t a regular part of the Clippers’ rotation during his first full season with the club, but could take on a larger role if Westbrook departs. If Westbrook remains in L.A., Hyland could become a trade candidate.

Backup centers Mason Plumlee and Daniel Theis will be free agents and the Clippers probably don’t need to re-sign both guys — only one was in the rotation at the time for most of 2023/24. Since Los Angeles holds Plumlee’s Bird rights, he could be brought back at a higher salary, which could end up being useful for trade purposes. But if the Clippers aren’t in position to aggregate salaries anytime soon, it might make more sense to save some money and re-sign whichever big man is willing to return for the veteran’s minimum.

From there, the Clippers could head out onto the free agent market and see which other players might be willing to accept minimum deals to play for a potential contender in Los Angeles.

If George doesn’t return, the Clippers would be in position to potentially operate below the first tax apron, which would create new transaction opportunities for the front office — the mid-level ($12.9MM) and bi-annual ($4.7MM) exceptions would be available, and the team would have far more flexibility in trades, including the ability to aggregate salaries and take back more salary than is sent out.

Of course, with no cap room available and only one tradable future first-round pick on hand, none of those options would be nearly enough to acquire a player capable of replacing George on his own.

Is there a scenario in which a roster built around Leonard and Harden – with a complementary supporting cast and some newfound financial flexibility – can have more playoff success than what the Clippers have accomplished in recent years? Maybe, but it would take some luck (and would require Kawhi actually being available in the playoffs). I don’t think that’s the direction the organization wants to go.

While the consensus among NBA fans is that the Clippers have missed their chance to capitalize on the Leonard/George years, management can take some solace in the fact that the team was very good this season when Leonard, George, and Harden all played together (44-24, per ESPN) and lost in the playoffs to a Dallas team that eventually won the West. Who knows what might’ve happened if Kawhi was operating at full strength.

During his end-of-season remarks to reporters, Frank addressed the team’s inability to stay healthy in the postseason by stating, “Just because it’s happened [four straight seasons] doesn’t mean it’s always going to happen next year.” While that may come off as naively positive spin, it’s easy to see – after running through the Clippers’ offseason options, or lack thereof – why attempting to stave off the injury bug may be the team’s best hope for short-term success.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • Kai Jones ($2,196,970): Non-Bird rights
    • Note: Jones salary would remain non-guaranteed if his option is exercised.
  • Total: $2,196,970

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because they have finished each of the past two seasons on two-way contracts with the Clippers, the qualifying offers for Diabate and Moon would be worth their minimum salaries (projected to be $2,093,637 for Diabate and $2,168,944 for Moon). Those offers would each include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

  • No. 46 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Brandon Boston (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.
  • Amir Coffey (veteran)
  • Paul George (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if his player option is exercised).
  • Bones Hyland (rookie scale)
  • Terance Mann (veteran)
  • Norman Powell (veteran)
  • P.J. Tucker (veteran)
    • Player option must be exercised.
  • Ivica Zubac (veteran)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

  • Rodney Hood ($2,093,637 cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $2,093,637

Note: The cap hold for Hood is on the Clippers’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Clippers project to operate over the cap and over the second tax apron. That means they won’t have access to the mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception, or their trade exception worth $559,782. If they move below the second apron, they would gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000). If they operate below both aprons, they could access the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12,859,000), the bi-annual exception ($4,681,0001), and their trade exception.

  • None
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Los Angeles Lakers

June 14th, 2024 at 2:51pm CST by Rory Maher

In 2022/23, the Lakers started the season 2-10. Just before the February trade deadline, they were 25-31. After making a few trades, they went 18-8 to close the regular season. A play-in victory over Minnesota secured the West’s No. 7 seed.

After defeating the shorthanded Grizzlies in the first round in six games, the Lakers took out the Warriors — the defending champions at that point — in the second round in another six-game series. However, they were swept in the conference finals by the Nuggets, who went on to win their first title in 2023.

Head of basketball Rob Pelinka talked up continuity last offseason, ultimately re-signing Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, D’Angelo Russell and extending Jarred Vanderbilt.

One significant roster change was letting Dennis Schröder walk in free agency, essentially replacing him by signing Gabe Vincent. Due to a knee injury, Vincent was limited to just 11 games and largely struggled in the time he was on the court.

L.A. gave out three minimum-salary one-plus-one (one-year with a player option for year two) deals to Christian Wood, Jaxson Hayes and Cam Reddish. The results were underwhelming. To this point, only Wood has made a determination on his player option for ’24/25, opting in and securing $3MM.

Last summer, the Lakers used their bi-annual exception to sign Taurean Prince, who shot 39.6% from three-point range in his 78 regular season appearances, including 49 starts (27.0 minutes per contest). Prince’s outsized role was a source of external consternation from fans and was reportedly an issue internally as well, perhaps playing a factor in Darvin Ham getting fired as head coach.

Prince is one of only two unrestricted free agents for L.A. in 2024, along with Spencer Dinwiddie, a late-season buyout addition. For what it’s worth, both Prince and Dinwiddie have expressed a desire to return — it remains to be seen if that feeling is mutual.

In ’23/24, Anthony Davis played a career-high 76 games and LeBron James played 71, his most in six years. While they were successful in the minutes their two stars played, the Lakers did not play well at all when James and Davis were off the court. Their overall net rating of +0.6 ranked 19th in the league, and they were 15th in offense and 17th in defense — the definition of mediocre.

At the end of January, the Lakers were just 24-25. Another late-season surge saw them finish 23-10 for an overall mark of 47-35. Once again, the L.A. won its first play-in game — this time over New Orleans — to claim the West’s No. 7 seed.

Despite leading for the majority of the minutes in the series, the Lakers were vanquished again by the Nuggets, losing their first-round series in five games.

As previously noted, Ham was let go last month, so the Lakers have been searching for a new head coach. UConn’s Dan Hurley, winner of back-to-back NCAA titles, emerged as a surprising frontrunner last week, but ultimately stayed in college with the Huskies. J.J. Redick, the presumed favorite for the job before Hurley, will formally interview for the position this weekend, per ESPN.

The ongoing search is drawing all the headlines right now. It’s a huge market, it’s the Lakers, and they have the league’s most famous and accomplished current player. It’s only natural. But what Pelinka will be able to do with the roster is the bigger and more pressing concern. The Western Conference is only going to get more competitive next season, with teams like Memphis, Houston and possibly San Antonio looking to move up the standings and leapfrog the Lakers.

The Lakers’ Offseason Plan

The Lakers enter the offseason in a difficult position. James and Davis remain as potent as any duo in the league, but James turns 40 years old in December and is expected to play only a couple more years.

The team will look to be aggressive in the offseason with its three tradable first-round picks — No. 17 overall in the upcoming draft, and future first-rounders in 2029 and 2031.

If a star player requests a trade, the best package the Lakers can put together simply would not be competitive with teams stacked with draft assets and young players. That doesn’t mean L.A. won’t continue to be linked to star players, but the ones who could be realistically attainable have red flags.

Take Trae Young, for instance, a very talented but ball-dominant point guard. Going all-in for Young would likely cause more problems than solutions due to his maximum-salary contract and defensive limitations.

Zach LaVine‘s value is at an all-time low after season-ending foot surgery limited him to 25 games. His max deal will pay him $89MM over the next two seasons, with a $49MM player option for ’26/27. The Lakers probably wouldn’t have to give up very much to acquire the two-time All-Star, but would he help or hinder the club going forward?

Finding players who can contribute both in the short and long term while maintaining some semblance of future flexibility is an extremely difficult needle to thread. Especially when other teams know you want to get better but don’t have a clear path to doing so.

L.A. had a recipe for success around James and Davis four years ago when the team won the championship — a top-tier defense with role players who knew how to move the ball and could make enough shots to keep defenses honest. But 3-and-D players aren’t easy to acquire, as just about every team in the league wants more of them.

Alex Caruso, who won a ring with that title team before the Lakers let him walk in free agency a few years ago, would be a great on-court fit. However, he’s entering the final year of his contract, and the Bulls have reportedly placed a high asking price for defensive stalwart in the past couple transaction windows.

Dorian Finney-Smith is another player who has been linked to L.A. He’s a good player on a fairly reasonable contract. He also isn’t a player who is going to move the needle on his own, and I don’t think he’s worth any first-round picks.

James has a $51.4MM player option for ’24/25 and is widely expected to return in some fashion, whether it comes via an extension or opting out and re-signing. In addition to Hayes and Reddish, Russell also holds a player option valued at $18.7MM.

If James opts out and re-signs, he would be eligible for a full no-trade clause. That could appeal to him as he enters his age-40 season, although it’s very difficult to envision any scenario in which the Lakers would consider trading him anyway.

Let’s say all four players simply pick up their options. That leaves the Lakers with $178.75MM committed to 12 players. They also have a $3.83MM cap hold for the No. 17 overall pick and a potential $2.29MM qualifying offer — which is also the cap hold — to make second-year wing Max Christie a restricted free agent. That’s a total of about $184.9MM for 14 players.

The first luxury tax apron is projected to be $178.7MM. The second apron would be just shy of $189.5MM.

I don’t have a great feel for Christie’s market value because he hasn’t been a regular part of the team’s rotation in his first two seasons. He’s only 21 and has shown glimpses of being a valuable role player, but it’s hard to say how that will translate to his next contract. I do think the Lakers will re-sign him though, assuming it makes sense financially.

The problem with the above scenario is the Lakers weren’t a contender in ’23/24 and running things back isn’t a solution. Handing out all those player options in 2023 free agency may have secured additional commitments, but it made navigating the team’s books a more difficult proposition this summer.

Russell’s situation is interesting because if he signs with a rival team in free agency, the Lakers wouldn’t have to worry about the restrictions of the aprons at all — they might not even be a taxpayer ($171.3MM). But they’d also lose their starting point guard and a potential mid-sized contract to use for salary-matching in trades.

You could make an argument that ’23/24 was Russell’s best regular season as a pro, averaging 18.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG and 6.3 APG while turning it over at a career-low rate (2.1 per game). He scored efficiently (.588 TS%), including a career-high 41.5% from three-point range, and appeared in 76 games, his highest mark in five years.

However, he was abysmal in the playoffs again, averaging more field goal attempts (14.6) than points (14.2) per game. He was also targeted by Denver defensively for the second straight year. If it were his first rodeo, maybe it wouldn’t be particularly noteworthy, but the 28-year-old has consistently struggled under the bright lights of the postseason, with a career TS% of .484 in 32 games (just over 1,000 minutes).

Russell has always been a streaky scorer who has never been known for his defense. But if he struggles to score at the time of the season you need him most, how valuable do his regular season contributions actually end up being?

There is no easy answer to that question, which is why his market value is particularly tricky to gauge. He provides a certain baseline of skills that appeals to teams, despite being streaky. But I also don’t think there’s a team out there that views Russell as any type of long-term solution at point. He’s entering his 10th season, so an improvement over last season would likely be marginal.

Russell exercising his option would probably be a best-case scenario for the Lakers because he would remain trade-eligible and under contract. He might be flawed, but they also don’t have a straightforward way to replace what he brings to the table.

That’s the biggest problem with the Lakers right now. Their most appealing player asset — aside from James and Davis, of course — is Reaves, a good player on a great contract. Beyond that, the outlook is pretty bleak.

Hachimura had a solid regular season before struggling in the playoffs. He’s owed $35.3MM over the next two seasons — not an onerous deal by any means, but also not particularly team-friendly. He might appeal to certain teams, but not enough on his own to return anything of significant value.

Vanderbilt defends, hustles and rebounds, but he’s not a great offensive player, and he only played 29 games last season due to a nagging heel injury. He’s 25 and will make a little under the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which certain teams can now use as a trade exception — an acquiring team potentially wouldn’t have to take salary back to acquire him.

Vincent is still owed $22.5MM over the next two years. It’s hard to view that contract as anything but a negative right now.

Guard Jalen Hood-Schifino, whom the team selected 17th overall in 2023, only played a total of 109 NBA minutes as a rookie last season. Injuries certainly were a factor, but he was also buried deep on the depth chart. This is not a slight at Hood-Schifino because he’s still very young and some things were out of his control. But after one year, the pick doesn’t look great for the front office — the three players selected immediately after Hood-Schifino were Jaime Jaquez, Brandin Podziemski and Cam Whitmore — two All-Rookie First Team members and an explosive athlete and scorer.

2023 second-rounder Maxwell Lewis played 103 minutes across 34 games as a rookie, averaging just 3.0 per contest. He’ll earn guaranteed salaries the next two seasons, with a $2.4MM team option for ’26/27.

If Russell declines his option and signs elsewhere, the Lakers would have access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception. Free agents like De’Anthony Melton, Gary Trent Jr., Derrick Jones, Caleb Martin, Haywood Highsmith and Naji Marshall could make some sense as targets, though they might not all be available.

One thing that’s certain is the Lakers will still trying to be competitive in ’24/25, as New Orleans controls their 2025 first-round pick, which is unprotected. That is the final piece of the Davis trade from five years ago.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because they are no longer eligible to sign two-way contracts, the qualifying offers for Giles and Mays would be worth their minimum salary (projected to be $2,432,511 for Giles and $2,244,249 for Mays). Those offers would each include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

  • No. 17 overall pick ($3,830,280 cap hold)
  • No. 55 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $3,830,280

Extension-Eligible Players

  • LeBron James (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of August 18; player option must be exercised.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Lakers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Lakers project to operate over the cap and over the first tax apron. If they’re below the first apron, they would gain access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12,859,000). If they’re above the second apron, they would lose access to the taxpayer mid-level exception.

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,183,000

Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Milwaukee Bucks

June 13th, 2024 at 11:54am CST by Luke Adams

Several of the core contributors who played key roles during the Bucks‘ championship run in 2021 – including Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, and Pat Connaughton – have remained on the roster since then, but the team has struggled to replicate the success of that season.

After being bounced in the second round of the 2022 playoffs, the top-seeded Bucks were upset by the No. 8 Heat in the first round in 2023. Determined not to get complacent following that disappointing outcome, Milwaukee made two major changes last offseason, firing head coach Mike Budenholzer and replacing him with first-time head coach Adrian Griffin in the spring, then packaging Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, a future first-round pick, and a pair of first-round swaps for seven-time All-Star Damian Lillard just before training camp got underway.

To say the results were mixed would be generous. Griffin opened the season with a strong 30-13 (.698) record, but Milwaukee never seemed to be firing on all cylinders during that stretch, and the Bucks’ veteran players were reportedly questioning the new coach’s schemes, especially on defense. Griffin was replaced just halfway through his first season by Doc Rivers, with Bucks general manager Jon Horst citing Rivers’ championship experience and leadership as a better fit for the veteran roster.

Lillard, meanwhile, earned his eighth All-Star nod and led the Bucks with 7.0 assists per game, but his scoring average (24.3), field goal percentage (42.4%), and three-point percentage (35.4%) were all below his career rates and he didn’t mesh with Antetokounmpo quite as seamlessly as the club had hoped.

The addition of a gifted scorer and play-maker like Lillard to the roster helped Milwaukee improve its offensive rating from 15th in 2022/23 to sixth in ’23/24, but the loss of talented defenders like Holiday and Allen hurt. The Bucks’ defensive rating plummeted from fourth to 19th, bumping the club’s overall net rating from fifth down to 11th.

For a second straight year, the Bucks lost in the first round of the playoffs as the higher seed while Antetokounmpo dealt with an injury. After missing two-and-a-half games in the 2023 series vs. the Heat, Giannis was unavailable for the entire Eastern Conference quarterfinal vs. Indiana this spring. Without the two-time MVP – plus Lillard, who missed Games 4 and 5 – Milwaukee couldn’t keep up with the Pacers.

While there’s optimism that a full offseason with Rivers and Lillard will create more cohesion heading into the 2024/25 season, it’s hard to feel all that bullish about the Bucks’ championship potential with the current roster, based on how the last two years have played out. But barring cost-cutting moves, the club once again projects to operate over the second tax apron, limiting the front office’s options for pursuing upgrades, so better chemistry and better health luck may be Milwaukee’s best hopes for another deep playoff run.

The Bucks’ Offseason Plan

With a roster this expensive, it’s logical to wonder if any of the Bucks’ four highest-paid players could be on the move this summer. However, it seems safe to assume the team won’t be looking to move Antetokounmpo or Lillard.

Middleton, meanwhile, has been affected by injuries over the past two years, but he looked like his old self in the playoffs this spring, averaging 24.7 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game on .482/.355/.900 shooting vs. the Pacers despite receiving more defensive attention with Giannis out. If the Bucks are relatively confident they’ll get that version of Middleton going forward, as he enters his age-33 season, it doesn’t make sense to trade him.

That leaves Lopez, who will earn $23MM in his age-36 season. Those two numbers look a little scary alongside one another, but Lopez is only a year removed from finishing second in Defensive Player of the Year voting and remains the kind of center every team is seeking — one who can space the floor on offense (he has a .369 3PT% over the past three seasons) and protect the rim on defense (2.3 BPG during that same three-year stretch). He’d certainly have positive trade value on his expiring contract, but it’s hard to see how moving him would make Milwaukee better.

The average age of the four-man core is somewhat concerning (only Antetokounmpo will be younger than 33 next season), but I’d be surprised if the Bucks don’t roll with that group for at least one more season. A year from now, with Lopez’s contract expired and Middleton facing a player option decision for 2025/26, the team will be in a better position to reassess its options.

Portis is one of the league’s best sixth men and is a relative bargain at $12.6MM, so he’ll almost certainly stay put too, leaving the Bucks to fill out the rest of the roster with players who can complement that strong top five.

That collection of complementary players could start with Connaughton, though his production has taken a hit since he enjoyed a career year in 2021/22 — he has averaged just 6.5 points per game on .411/.341/.717 shooting over the past two seasons. I expect the Bucks to explore the trade market to see if there’s a way to turn his $9.4MM contract into one or two more reliable role players (or one lesser-paid player and cap/tax relief), but they don’t have many draft assets left to attach to him to sweeten their offers.

Every single one of Milwaukee’s draft picks from 2025-30 has either been traded or is tied up in a swap. The team’s 2031 picks can be traded beginning in July, so either the first- or second-rounder (or both) could be packaged with Connaughton in an effort to find an upgrade. Under normal circumstances, I’d suggest the Bucks may prefer to preserve the 2031 first-rounder for a more significant move, but they’re so all-in on this team in the short term that they probably shouldn’t hang onto that pick too tightly if there’s a deal out there that clearly makes them better.

In order to fill out the rest of the rotation beyond their top six or seven players, there are only two real paths available to the Bucks: Signing veteran free agents and continuing to add and develop young talent. Let’s start with free agency.

Assuming they’re not able to shed salary, the Bucks will generally be limited to minimum-salary signings as a second-apron team (they’ll be able to offer most of their own free agents 20% above the minimum). Players unable to do better than that on the open market will certainly have interest in Milwaukee, since the team is a potential contender and will likely have rotation spots available.

Still, the minimum-salary pool is a limited one. Malik Beasley was a nice addition for the minimum last summer and I’m sure the Bucks would love to have him back, but he may draw interest at a higher price point than what Milwaukee can offer. The rest of the club’s free agents are probably once again in line for minimum deals, at best, so they’re candidates to be brought back, though there are red flags in each case.

Patrick Beverley‘s year came to an ugly end due to an incident with Indiana fans that resulted in a four-game suspension to open the 2024/25 season; Jae Crowder and Danilo Gallinari are in their mid-30s and aren’t the players they once were; Thanasis Antetokounmpo has a torn Achilles that will likely cost him most – if not all – of ’24/25. Of those four, Beverley would be the most useful on-court fit, if the Bucks are willing to give him another chance following his end-of-season meltdown.

As the Bucks explore the market for outside free agents, they could use another point guard, wing, and center. Jordan McLaughlin and Aaron Holiday are potential under-the-radar targets at the point; Justin Holiday and Cedi Osman would be intriguing options on the wing if they’re available for the minimum; Daniel Theis and Xavier Tillman are a couple options I like at center.

Milwaukee also has a handful of young players on team-friendly contracts and will have to determine whether they remain committed to MarJon Beauchamp, A.J. Green, Andre Jackson, and Chris Livingston. None of those four players logged more than 614 minutes last season, but they showed some promise, with Beauchamp, Green, and Jackson all shooting the ball well. Rivers isn’t exactly known as a player-development specialist, but if those youngsters continue to make strides, there should be room in the rotation for at least one or two of them.

If the Bucks are concerned about their luxury tax bill and their proximity to the aprons, Beauchamp would be the most logical trade candidate of that quartet, since his fully guaranteed salary of $2.73MM is the only one above the minimum — the team could save some money by swapping him out for a minimum-salary replacement.

The Bucks will also enter this year’s draft armed with the 23rd and 33rd overall picks, putting them in a good position to nab at least one player who could contribute immediately. This draft class isn’t top-heavy, but it has no shortage of seasoned college players who spent three, four, or five seasons at school and who should be able to transition to the NBA more smoothly than the average one-and-done prospect. That could work just fine for Milwaukee.

It wouldn’t shock me if the Bucks look to move down from No. 23 unless there’s a specific player they love at that spot. Trading that pick for a 2024 second-rounder and maybe a couple future second-rounders would help them begin to restock a bare cupboard of future draft assets and would be financially advantageous — a second-round pick would likely only count toward the cap and tax for approximately $1.16MM, whereas the 23rd pick would have a starting salary of about $2.95MM.

Marquette’s Tyler Kolek, Creighton’s Baylor Scheierman, Dayton’s DaRon Holmes II, Cal’s Jaylon Tyson, and Kansas’ Kevin McCullar are a few of the prospects who spent at least three years at college and who should be available late in the first round or early in the second for the Bucks.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • A.J. Green ($2,120,693)
    • Green’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 8.
  • Andre Jackson ($945,928)
    • Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above.
  • Jaylin Galloway (two-way)
  • Ryan Rollins (two-way)
  • Total: $3,066,621

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he’s a former first-round pick who had his third- and/or fourth-year option declined, Washington will be an unrestricted free agent.

Draft Picks

  • No. 23 overall pick ($2,951,760 cap hold)
  • No. 33 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $2,951,760

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Pat Connaughton (veteran)
  • Bobby Portis (veteran)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Bucks’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Bucks project to operate over the cap and over the second tax apron. That means they won’t have access to the mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception, or either of their two existing trade exceptions. If they dip below the second apron, they would gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000).

  • None
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: New Orleans Pelicans

June 12th, 2024 at 2:28pm CST by Luke Adams

After acquiring CJ McCollum at the 2022 trade deadline, the Pelicans had long hoped for an extended period to evaluate what their roster looked like when fully healthy. They didn’t get it during the 2021/22 season, with Zion Williamson unavailable all year, including for the team’s first-round playoff loss to Phoenix. And they didn’t get it in ’22/23, when injuries limited Williamson to 29 games and Brandon Ingram to 45.

The Pelicans didn’t entirely avoid health issues in ’23/24, but they came about as close as they could realistically expect, with Williamson, Ingram, and McCollum each playing between 64 and 70 regular season games. A late-season knee injury limited Ingram’s effectiveness in the playoffs, and Williamson hurt his hamstring in the play-in tournament, sidelining him for the first-round series vs. the Thunder, but by that point, the Pelicans had gotten the extended evaluation period they’d hoped for, giving them a better idea of what they had.

So what was the verdict? Here’s what head of basketball operations David Griffin had to say in April at the end of New Orleans’ season:

“In the past, we’ve always erred on the side of continuity, and our takeaway has always been, ‘Let’s see this group healthy.’ I think we’ve seen it enough. I think we had a really, really good opportunity to see Zion play a career high in games. I think we saw it for segments of time well enough to understand that we’ve got a lot of work to do. Because it is a historically good Western Conference, there are teams that didn’t make the playoffs that are going to get radically better this offseason. We need to do the same. I think you’ll see a real sense of urgency from all of us to do that.

“… I want to be really, really clear. This is not going to be a summer of complacency. It’s time to get better.”

It’s an encouraging stance from Griffin, who could’ve lauded the Pelicans for their 49-33 regular season record, which was a seven-game improvement over the prior season and tied for the second-best record in franchise history. He could’ve used Ingram’s and Williamson’s late-season injuries as excuses for the lack of playoff success. But he (rightly) recognized that the current roster isn’t good enough to beat the very best teams in the West and that some changes are needed.

Fortunately for the Pelicans, they’re in a pretty good position to make those changes. The roster is chock full of tradable contracts and the club has an excess of future first-round draft picks — in addition to holding all their own future first-rounders, the Pels control the Lakers’ unprotected pick in 2025 and Milwaukee’s unprotected pick in 2027, as well as the right to swap first-rounders with the Bucks in 2026.

That’s not to say that the right moves are obvious or that upgrades will be easy, but the Pelicans are better positioned than some of their conference rivals to further bolster an already-strong roster this summer.

The Pelicans’ Offseason Plan

The Pelicans don’t necessarily have to make a move involving one of their three highest-paid players this summer, but there’s reason to believe they’ll seriously consider it. Williamson isn’t going anywhere and McCollum is probably more valuable to New Orleans than he would be on the trade market, but Ingram’s future with the franchise is far from certain.

The 2024/25 season will be the last of Ingram’s five-year, maximum-salary contract with the Pelicans, and reports have indicated the front office isn’t comfortable with the idea of offering the star forward a max extension that would start at 30% of the cap (rather than 25%, like his previous deal).

Ingram has had five good seasons in New Orleans, but his game has plateaued to some extent since he made the All-Star team and earned Most Improved Player honors in 2020, and his three-point shooting has taken a step back. After making 38.6% of 6.2 three-pointers per game in his first two seasons with the Pelicans, the 26-year-old has knocked down just 35.4% of 3.9 tries per night in the past three seasons.

Those numbers are important, because with multiple non-shooters on the floor – Williamson and a center such as Jonas Valanciunas or Larry Nance – the team needs its other players to regularly take and make those outside shots to properly space the floor. If Ingram can’t reliably do that, the Pelicans will be hesitant to make another huge financial commitment to him, so he could find himself on the trade block in the coming weeks.

While there are a number of teams around the NBA who could benefit from Ingram’s skill set, it’s hard to envision a more ideal trade partner than Griffin’s former club, the Cavaliers, who will have to consider this offseason whether to move forward with overlapping pieces in both their backcourt (Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland) and frontcourt (Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley). Conveniently, Cleveland could use a big scoring wing, while two of the Pelicans’ biggest needs are a true point guard and a rim-protecting center.

The Pelicans have long had interest in Allen, having been linked to him during multiple previous transaction windows, and I think Garland would be a pretty good fit in New Orleans too. McCollum has been the team’s de facto point guard in recent years, but he’s not a natural distributor — both Williamson and Ingram averaged more assists per game than he did last season.

It remains to be seen just how open the Cavaliers will be to negotiating a deal with New Orleans. While the two teams look like an obvious match to me, Cleveland’s head of basketball operations Koby Altman has resisted the idea that a shake-up is necessary, telling reporters last month that he doesn’t anticipate “sweeping changes” to his roster this summer. We’ll see if he sticks to that stance.

As logical as a trade centered around Ingram and Allen would be from the Pelicans’ perspective, they’ll need to consider alternatives at the five if the Cavs aren’t open to a deal. Center is a greater priority than a point guard, where Williamson and McCollum can share ball-handling duties if need be. Williamson is an effective small-ball center in certain lineups, as is Nance, but rim protection isn’t either player’s specialty and New Orleans needs a bigger body to match up with the top centers in the Western Conference.

Valanciunas, who is headed to free agency, has his strengths – he’s an excellent interior scorer and rebounder – but those strengths don’t necessarily match up with the Pelicans’ needs, which means it’s very possible he won’t be back in New Orleans next season. Still, it will be tricky for the club to land a capable replacement, given its lack of cap room and a relative dearth of quality of big men on the free agent market.

Nic Claxton or Isaiah Hartenstein would be great, but the Pelicans have no feasible path to acquiring either of them. Goga Bitadze, Andre Drummond, and Mason Plumlee are among the other possible free agent fits, but they don’t inspire a whole lot of excitement. The club may have to rely on the trade market to acquire a starting-caliber five. While Allen will once again be at the top of New Orleans’ wish list, the club figures to kick the tires on several other veteran centers who might be available, including perhaps Clint Capela, Mitchell Robinson, Wendell Carter, and Robert Williams.

Ingram wouldn’t be the most logical centerpiece in a deal for some of those non-Allen centers, so the Pelicans will likely have to consider sending out Nance in certain scenarios. He’s a solid contributor, but he’ll be on an expiring $11.2MM contract and will be the only Pelican besides Williamson, Ingram, McCollumn, and Herbert Jones ($13MM) making more than about $6MM next season.

Jones – who made the All-Defensive First Team, improved his three-point percentage to 41.8%, and is under contract for three more seasons – is a long-term keeper, leaving Nance as the most logical salary-matching piece in a mid-sized deal that doesn’t involve Ingram.

Whether or not Ingram is traded, the Pelicans will want to find a way to get young sharpshooters Trey Murphy and Jordan Hawkins more playing time. Murphy, who averaged a career-high 14.8 points per game and is a career 39.2% three-point shooter, appears on the verge of a true breakout and is an ideal complement to Williamson, given his ability to space the floor. Moving Ingram could clear a path for the fourth-year sharpshooter to move into the starting lineup on a permanent basis (he started 23 of 57 games last season) while also creating the cap flexibility to comfortably lock him up long-term.

Murphy will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason and I expect the Pelicans will be motivated to work out a deal sooner rather than later, since his value will likely only to continue to rise as he takes on a greater role. I wouldn’t necessarily expect Murphy to match or exceed the five-year, $135MM extension Devin Vassell signed last fall, but a payday in the range of $20-25MM per year is realistic. A new deal for Murphy would begin in 2025/26, just as Ingram’s current contract expires.

As for Hawkins, last year’s 14th overall pick didn’t have a significant role as a rookie but acquitted himself reasonably well when he played, converting 36.6% of his three-pointers. He’ll need to become more of a threat inside the arc and work on his defense, but Hawkins looks like a rotation piece going forward and will be on a team-friendly contract for three more seasons.

Naji Marshall is an underrated three-and-D wing who has been a bargain on a minimum-salary contract for the Pelicans since the 2020/21 season and offered a reminder of his value this spring when he averaged more minutes per game in the play-win over Sacramento and the first-round series vs. Oklahoma City than he did during the regular season. He’s due for a raise as an unrestricted free agent though, and with New Orleans starting to face a cap crunch and looking to find more minutes for Murphy and Hawkins, Marshall could be the odd man out. The Pels would certainly welcome him back if the price is right, but I expect the 26-year-old to draw mid-level interest in free agency.

Jose Alvarado‘s contract situation will also be worth keeping an eye on this summer. The Pelicans hold an affordable $2MM team option on Alvarado for next season, but picking it up isn’t a no-brainer, since doing so would put the guard on track for unrestricted free agency in 2025. Turning down the option would allow New Orleans to control Alvarado’s restricted free agency, ensuring that he doesn’t go anywhere, even if it would mean paying him more in 2024/25.

This decision could go either way, but my guess is that the team will simply exercise Alvarado’s option, locking in his $2MM salary. That will put the Pelicans in better position to navigate the cap in ’24/25, and they could still negotiate a possible extension with Alvarado during the season. While it would increase the risk of him getting away a year from now, he’s not such a crucial part of the long-term plans that New Orleans can’t take that risk, especially if former lottery pick Dyson Daniels continues to develop into a more consistent two-way threat in the backcourt.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Pelicans, Seabron’s qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,093,637). That offer would include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

  • No. 21 overall pick ($3,202,560 cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $3,202,560

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Jose Alvarado (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if his team option is exercised).
  • Brandon Ingram (veteran)
  • Naji Marshall (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.
  • CJ McCollum (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of September 26.
  • Trey Murphy (rookie scale)
  • Larry Nance Jr. (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of October 1.
  • Jonas Valanciunas (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Pelicans’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Pelicans project to operate over the cap and under the first tax apron.

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
  • Trade exception: $5,722,116

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, trade exceptions don’t expire before the regular season begins.

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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Miami Heat

June 11th, 2024 at 10:32am CST by Luke Adams

Entering opening night last fall, the Heat were coming off one of the most unusual seasons in recent memory. They barely finished above .500 during the 2022/23 regular season, posting a negative net rating (-0.5) across 82 games, then narrowly survived the play-in tournament to earn the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. From there, they knocked off the Bucks, Knicks, and Celtics in their first three postseason series, coming within three wins of a championship before ultimately falling to Denver.

During the subsequent 2023/24 season, Erik Spoelstra repeatedly insisted that his team wasn’t counting on a repeat of the year before and was taking the regular season seriously rather than waiting to turn it on in the postseason. But injuries and inconsistency resulted in a pretty similar outcome. Miami won 46 games instead of 44 and outscored its opponents, but once again finished in the bottom half of the league in net rating and needed a win in its second play-in game to grab the No. 8 playoff seed.

This time around, there was no postseason magic for the Heat, who were missing star Jimmy Butler due to a knee injury and managed just a single win over the top-seeded Celtics before their season came to an unceremonious end.

On one hand, the Heat are just one year removed from winning the East and perhaps could have made a deeper run this spring with a healthy Butler and a more favorable first-round matchup. But that’s a rosy view of their situation. The regular season results show that this team has been a relatively middle-of-the-pack squad over the past two seasons and, with Butler entering his age-35 season, probably can’t consider itself a legitimate title contender without some tweaks to the roster.

Based on what’s transpired since their season ended (more on that below), I wouldn’t rule out major offseason changes for the Heat, but it’s not in their DNA to fully rebuild (they haven’t won fewer than 37 games since 2007/08). So even if next season’s roster looks quite a bit different than the ’23/24 group, the goal will be to get further in the 2025 playoffs than they did this year.

The Heat’s Offseason Plan

The most pressing question facing the Heat this summer is whether or not Butler will still be on the roster on opening night. A breakup would be a bit of a surprise, given that the past five years have seemed like a near-perfect marriage between one of the NBA’s most competitive stars and a franchise that prides itself on its hard-working culture.

But shortly after the Heat’s season ended, word broke that Butler would be seeking another maximum-salary extension this summer, looking to replace his 2025/26 player option with a new two-year deal worth approximately $113MM. Asked at his end-of-season press conference about that possibility, longtime team president Pat Riley didn’t explicitly say whether or not the Heat would be willing to put that offer on the table, but suggested they wouldn’t exactly be eager to do so.

“It’s a big decision on our part to commit those kinds of resources, unless you have someone who is going to be available every night,” Riley said, referring to an injury history that has forced Butler to miss at least 15 games in every season since he arrived in Miami in 2019.

Riley also didn’t approve of a viral video that showed Butler claiming the Heat would’ve been able to beat Boston and New York if he’d been available to play in the postseason. The Heat president told reporters, “If you’re not on the court playing against Boston or on the court playing against the New York Knicks, you should keep your mouth shut on the criticism of those teams.”

A thinner-skinned player might respond to those comments by submitting a trade request, but the ability to be frank and honest with one another is an important reason why the relationship between Butler and the Heat has worked. I wouldn’t expect him to seek a change of scenery this offseason due to hurt feelings. But if Miami is unwilling to put an appealing extension offer on the table this summer, he might become more inclined to weigh all his options as he enters the final stage of his career.

While the Heat would be under no obligation to move Butler if he asked to be traded, he showed earlier in his career in Minnesota that he can make life difficult for his current team if his demands aren’t met. Still, I’m not necessarily counting on the situation coming to a head this offseason. Miami would have a hard time turning Butler into a player – or multiple players – who could increase the club’s ceiling in 2024/25, and the 34-year-old has been in the league long enough to know that the grass isn’t always greener in a new environment.

Three-time All-Star center Bam Adebayo will also be extension-eligible this summer and looks like a better bet than Butler to get a maximum-salary offer from the Heat, given his edge in age (27 in July) and availability (he has missed more than 11 games just once in the past five seasons). A max deal for Adebayo would be worth approximately $165MM over three years. He could potentially become eligible for more years and more money with an All-NBA berth or a Defensive Player of the Year trophy next summer, but I could see the big man opting to lock in that long-term guaranteed money now.

If building around Butler and Adebayo remains the plan going forward, I’d expect some combination of Tyler Herro ($29MM), Terry Rozier ($24.9MM), and Duncan Robinson ($19.4MM) – and perhaps all three – to be mentioned in trade rumors this summer. As long as they’re able to operate below the second tax apron, the Heat would be permitted to aggregate those salaries in a trade for another star, and the franchise has made a habit of going star-hunting over the years, including in the 2023 offseason when its bid for Damian Lillard came up short.

Cleveland (Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland) and Atlanta (Trae Young, Dejounte Murray) are among the situations the Heat figure to keep an eye on this offseason, with Mitchell in particular having long been considered a prime target.

If Mitchell or another well-fitting impact player hits the trade market, it’s possible a rival suitor would outbid Miami, like the Bucks did last year with Lillard. But the team has some strong trade assets, including All-Rookie first-teamer Jaime Jaquez, 21-year-old forward Nikola Jovic, this year’s No. 15 overall pick, and at least one future first-rounder — the Heat have traded away their 2025 and 2027 first-rounders, but protections could push those picks back to 2026 and 2028, so only the ’30 pick can be traded unconditionally, though the club could offer a handful of first-round swaps.

The more prudent approach to the offseason might be to keep those youngsters, who are on team-friendly contracts for multiple years, trust the scouting department to find another potential gem at No. 15, and perhaps attempt to make a less significant move involving one of Herro, Rozier, or Robinson. There’s a good deal of overlap in that trio — both Herro and Robinson provide most of their value with floor-spacing and outside shooting, while both Herro and Rozier are score-first guards – so if the Heat could find a way to turn one of them into more of a two-way wing or a traditional point guard, it would help balance the roster.

The Heat will have a sizable hole to fill on the wing if they’re unable to re-sign Caleb Martin, who is expected to turn down a $7.1MM player option, and Haywood Highsmith, who is headed for unrestricted free agency. Both players are due for raises and could be targeted by teams who have the full mid-level exception available.

The situation with those two players feels awfully reminiscent of the one the club faced with Max Strus and Gabe Vincent a year ago, when luxury tax concerns limited what Miami was able to offer that free agent duo. Strus ultimately agreed to join the Cavaliers, while Vincent signed with the Lakers.

The Heat already have over $163MM in guaranteed money on their books for seven players in 2024/25, and that figure would rise by another $14MM+ if Kevin Love, Josh Richardson, and Thomas Bryant exercise their player options and the team hangs onto its first-round pick. That would push team salary above $177MM, essentially assuring the Heat will operate over the first tax apron ($178.7MM) even without new deals for Martin or Highsmith.

Retaining either player would likely increase team salary beyond the $189.5MM second apron, so Miami will have a decision to make. It can resign itself to losing two solid role players for a second straight summer, try to shed salary elsewhere to create room under the second apron to bring back Martin and/or Highsmith, or simply re-sign both players and commit to being a second-apron team, accepting the roster-building restrictions that come with that.

None of those options are ideal, and the third one seems especially unlikely, given that the Heat will want to maintain the flexibility to aggregate salaries if a star becomes available. I expect the club to explore the second path in an effort to retain at least one of those two free agents, but if that’s not possible, Heat fans can at least take solace in the fact that the front office has done a good job over the years finding low-cost replacements to fill out the rotation when certain role players get too expensive.

The Heat will also benefit from the fact that there’s never a shortage of veterans who want to play in Miami due to a combination of the weather, the culture, and the organization’s distaste for rebuilding. Richardson missed half the season due to an injury and Bryant wasn’t quite as good a fit as the front office had hoped, but those are high-quality players for the minimum-salary tier, as is Love. Whether or not those guys opt in to return for another season, the Heat will likely head back to the free agent market in search of more minimum-salary bargains to fill out the back end of their roster.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Orlando Robinson ($2,120,693)
    • Robinson’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 15.
  • Total: $2,120,693

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Heat, Cain’s qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,093,637). That offer would include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

  • No. 15 overall pick ($4,244,160 cap hold)
  • No. 43 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $4,244,160

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Bam Adebayo (veteran)
  • Jimmy Butler (veteran)
  • Haywood Highsmith (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.
  • Caleb Martin (veteran)
    • Player option must be exercised.
  • Duncan Robinson (veteran)
  • Terry Rozier (veteran)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Heat’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Heat project to operate over the cap and over the first tax apron. If they move below the first apron, they would gain access to the bi-annual exception ($4,681,000) and the full mid-level exception ($12,859,000) instead of the taxpayer mid-level exception and would regain access to their three trade exceptions (the largest of which is worth $9,450,000 and expires on July 8). If they surpass the second tax apron, they would lose access to the taxpayer MLE.

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,183,000
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Phoenix Suns

June 10th, 2024 at 2:15pm CST by Luke Adams

Mat Ishbia made it clear in February 2023 when he took over majority control of the Suns from Robert Sarver that he was prepared to spend aggressively (both in terms of money and trade assets) in a way the team’s previous owner never did. One of his very first moves was to approve a massive deal for star forward Kevin Durant at the 2023 deadline. He doubled down on that all-in strategy by signing off on a blockbuster trade for Bradley Beal last offseason.

The moves left Phoenix with a top-heavy roster headed by three players who will earn a combined $150MM+ in 2024/25 when Devin Booker‘s new super-max extension begins. That trio will surpass the projected $141MM cap on its own, and once the Suns account for salaries for Jusuf Nurkic ($18.1MM), Grayson Allen ($15.6MM), and Nassir Little ($6.8MM), their team salary will exceed $191MM, putting them over the projected second tax apron of $189.5MM with just six players. Even filling out the rest of the roster with minimum-salary players will push team salary well past the $200MM mark.

Operating over the second apron means two things: Phoenix will be on the hook for a huge luxury tax bill and will also face major restrictions when it comes to making roster moves. Ishbia clearly doesn’t mind writing a big check for luxury tax penalties, so the money shouldn’t be an issue, but those roster-building restrictions are concerning. This team was hardly dominant in its first year together. The Suns clinched a playoff spot on the final day of the season, then were swept out of the first round. The front office can’t simply run it back with the same roster.

Changes are needed, and those changes will be difficult to enact as a second-apron team. The Suns won’t have the mid-level or bi-annual exception at their disposal to sign free agents. They can’t acquire a player via sign-and-trade or use previously generated trade exceptions. They can make trades, but they won’t be able to take back more salary than they send out. They also can’t aggregate player contracts (e.g. trading Nurkic and Little for a $25MM player) and they’re prohibited from offering cash to sweeten an offer.

President of basketball operations James Jones has had a nice run of success in Phoenix since being named the permanent general manager in 2019, serving as the architect of a team that snapped a 10-year playoff drought, made an NBA Finals, and has averaged roughly 50 wins per season over the last four years. But figuring out how to meaningfully upgrade the current version of the roster might be his most challenging assignment yet.

The Suns’ Offseason Plan

When Phoenix’s season came to an end in April, league observers and pundits were quick to suggest that the team’s big three of Durant, Booker, and Beal should be broken up. There’s a logical case to be made for that path. The three stars are all pretty ball-dominant and their fit together is just OK, not great. Trading one of them for two or three lesser-paid players could help balance the roster both on the cap sheet and on the court.

It’s a strategy that sounds better in theory than in practice though. Of the three, Beal is probably the one you’d want to move, but he has a no-trade clause that essentially allows him to control the process, and his value has declined since he last made an All-Star team in 2021. He’s still a talented scorer (his .513/.430/.813 shooting line last season was especially impressive) and is a solid play-maker, but he’s not a plus defender and he’s owed $161MM over the next three seasons. The Suns didn’t have to give up a huge package to acquire him and can’t expect one back if they try to send him elsewhere.

The Suns could command a more substantial haul if they were willing to trade Durant or Booker, but those guys are top-20 players in the NBA, so it’s hard to envision a deal in which one of them is traded and Phoenix is able to increase its championship odds for 2025. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that a May report indicated that the Suns plan to hang onto their big three, which Jones confirmed in a radio appearance later in the month.

If Durant, Booker, and Beal aren’t going anywhere, that leaves Nurkic, Allen, and Little as the likeliest trade chips, though we can probably rule out Allen, who won’t be trade-eligible until October after signing an extension in April and whose three-and-D skill set makes him a valuable role player for the Suns. Little’s usefulness as a trade chip, meanwhile, is limited, since his $6.75MM salary can’t be aggregated, meaning he could only bring back a player earning less than that amount. The same is true of Nurkic, though his larger cap hit ($18.125MM) means the pool of players he could be traded for is much larger.

Unfortunately for the Suns, neither Nurkic nor Little has a ton of trade value on his own. I think Nurkic might be slightly underrated in some ways (he’s a very good rebounder and passer) but he’s obviously not the sort of versatile center who will help you space the floor on offense or guard out to the perimeter on defense, so he’s not a bargain at $18MM+ per year. Little showed some promise in Portland but wasn’t good in his first season in Phoenix, averaging a career-low 3.4 points per game as his three-point percentage dipped to just 30.0%.

The Suns would have to attach a sweetener to either player to realistically land an upgrade. Cash is off limits and Phoenix has traded away most of its future draft assets. However, the club could technically still offer this year’s No. 22 pick (the trade would have to be finalized after a selection is made), as well as its 2031 first-rounder (beginning in July). Would one of those picks along with Nurkic be enough for a meaningful addition?

Gerald Bourguet of PHNX Sports explored this topic recently, suggesting 20 hypothetical trades involving Nurkic and a first-round pick, but most of them either look like long shots or don’t necessarily do a whole lot for the Suns. Of Bourguet’s ideas, the one I find most compelling for both sides might be a deal with Charlotte for a less expensive center (Nick Richards), plus another role player or two. A package of Richards, Cody Martin, and Tre Mann, for instance, would (barely) fit within Nurkic’s outgoing salary — all three players could have roles in Phoenix, but it’s not such a talented trio that the retooling Hornets should realistically expect a better return than what the Suns could offer.

Attaching both movable first-rounders to Nurkic might net a stronger return than that Hornets example, but there’s certainly a ceiling on what the Suns can expect to do on the trade market. That’s why it’s so crucial that they re-sign free agent forward Royce O’Neale. While Phoenix can’t sign an outside free agent for more than the minimum, the team will have O’Neale’s Bird rights, allowing the front office to offer him any salary up to the max.

Of course, O’Neale won’t get nearly that much, but he’ll have some leverage to get a player-friendly deal out of the Suns, who would have no means to replace him with a comparable player if he leaves. A recent report suggested Phoenix might have to offer a three- or four-year deal to ensure O’Neale doesn’t sign with a rival suitor willing to offer him a comparable (or higher) starting salary on a shorter-term contract.

Eric Gordon, Josh Okogie, Drew Eubanks, and Damion Lee will have decisions to make on minimum-salary player options, which will help determine how many back-end roster spots the Suns have to fill. Some of those players (ie. Lee) seem likelier to opt in than others (ie. Gordon), but even if all of them return, the Suns won’t have a full roster and will likely need to make multiple minimum-salary signings.

I’d expect the team to take the same approach in free agency that it did a year ago, offering second-year player options to many of its top FA targets, essentially guaranteeing them up to $5-6MM rather than just offering a single-year minimum salary. Jones and his basketball operations department will look to improve upon last year’s hit rate on minimum-salary players, as signings like Keita Bates-Diop, Yuta Watanabe, and Chimezie Metu didn’t really work out.

While the Suns have few tools to make significant changes to their roster without taking a step backward, no Collective Bargaining Agreement language prevented them from making a major move on the sidelines, where Frank Vogel was fired just one season into a five-year contract worth a reported $31MM.

Phoenix didn’t conduct a lengthy search for Vogel’s replacement, zeroing in quickly on Mike Budenholzer and awarding him a five-year, $50MM deal. The hope will be that even if the 2024/25 roster ends up looking pretty similar to last year’s, Budenholzer will be able to get more out of it than Vogel did.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he’s no longer eligible to sign a two-way contract, Lee’s qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,244,249). It would include a small partial guarantee. Because he’s a former first-round pick who had his third- and/or fourth-year option declined, Azubuike will be an unrestricted free agent.

Draft Picks

  • No. 22 overall pick ($3,074,640 cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $3,074,640

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Kevin Durant (veteran)
  • Royce O’Neale (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.
  • Jusuf Nurkic (veteran)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Suns’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Suns project to operate over the cap and over the second tax apron. That means they won’t have access to the mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception, or any of their three existing trade exceptions.

  • None
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Philadelphia 76ers

June 8th, 2024 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

For the second time in three years, the Sixers opened their season with a major trade request hanging over the team. Unlike in 2021/22, when the acrimonious Ben Simmons saga dragged out all the way to the February trade deadline, Daryl Morey was able to resolve James Harden‘s trade demand early in the fall, reaching an agreement during the second week of the regular season to send the former MVP to the Clippers in exchange for a package of role players and draft picks.

It’s highly unlikely that any of those future draft picks will ever turn into a player of Harden’s caliber, and none of the four veterans sent to Philadelphia in the swap figure to be long-term keepers. But with a disgruntled player on a pricey expiring deal, the 76ers didn’t have much leverage in trade talks and did well to acquire players who fit the roster in the short term and assets that could be flipped in future moves — one of the players Philadelphia received from L.A., Marcus Morris, was sent out at the trade deadline in a deal for Buddy Hield, for instance.

Perhaps even more important than the assets the Sixers got for Harden was the opportunity his exit created for fourth-year guard Tyrese Maxey. With Harden no longer in the picture, Maxey saw his usage rate increase to a career-high 28.0% and responded by posting new career bests in points (25.9), assists (6.2), and rebounds (3.7) per game, among other categories. His scoring efficiency took a hit, but his .450/.373/.868 shooting line was still just fine, and the 23-year-old was named the NBA’s Most Improved Player for his star turn.

Maxey already looked like a future building block in Philadelphia, but his 2023/24 performance proved he’s capable of being a legitimate No. 2 to former MVP Joel Embiid. The Sixers had a 29-7 record in the games those two played together and outscored opponents by +12.4 points per 100 possessions when they shared the court.

Unfortunately, Embiid’s injury issues flared up again, with a meniscus tear limiting him to 39 regular season games and reducing his mobility and effectiveness in the postseason. For the first time since 2020, the 76ers didn’t win a playoff series this spring, but that early postseason exit wasn’t cause for panic, since the front office had already anticipated making major roster changes during the offseason.

Having dumped P.J. Tucker‘s contract in the Harden trade, the Sixers will head into this summer with only one guaranteed contract (Embiid) on their cap for 2024/25 and Maxey poised to re-sign as a restricted free agent. Besides those two players, no one else who finished the season with Philadelphia is a lock to be back in the fall.

That’s a lot of uncertainty entering an offseason, which is a little scary, but the duo of Embiid and Maxey is a great place to start. So even if the Sixers miss out on their top target(s) and have to turn to Plan B or C, they’re well-positioned to take a step forward following a 47-35 season in ’23/24.

The Sixers’ Offseason Plan

Taking into account Embiid’s salary, Maxey’s cap hold, the cap hold for the No. 16 overall pick, and rookie-minimum cap holds for nine empty roster spots, the Sixers could generate up to about $62MM in cap room. That figure, which would rely on renouncing all the team’s current free agents and waiving players on non-guaranteed salaries (including Paul Reed), could rise to nearly $65MM if Philadelphia also trades away its draft pick. The club will be able to go over the cap to re-sign Maxey to a maximum-salary contract after it uses up its room.

$65MM is a ton of cap space, but it would disappear quickly with a major move or two. The Sixers’ top target is reportedly Paul George, who can become an unrestricted free agent this summer if he doesn’t reach an extension agreement with the Clippers and turns down his 2024/25 player option. It’s unclear how viable a move to Philadelphia is for George – he may just be using the 76ers for leverage purposes to get the deal he wants in Los Angeles – but if they hope to lure him away from his hometown, the Sixers would have to offer the star forward a maximum-salary contract that would start at a projected $49.35MM.

Jimmy Butler has also frequently been cited as a prime target for Morey, though the former Sixer would need to be acquired via trade, which wouldn’t be easy — the Heat aren’t looking to rebuild, so if the 76ers offered a package heavy on draft assets and cap relief, Miami would have to be confident they could turn those assets into another impact player. If Philadelphia could find a way to pry Butler away from the Heat, it would mean accommodating his $48.8MM salary.

Landing a star like George or Butler would be a home run for the Sixers, since either player would be an ideal fit on the wing alongside Embiid and Maxey. But it would reduce Philadelphia’s remaining cap room to approximately $13-17MM, putting the team in position to realistically make just two or three more signings above the minimum — one or two using that remaining cap room, and another one using the $8MM room exception.

The result would be an awfully top-heavy roster, similar to the one the Suns had this past season. You could certainly make the case that Maxey, George (or Butler), and Embiid would fit together better than Phoenix’s three stars do. However, there would be a lot of pressure on Philadelphia’s stars to stay healthy, which Embiid hasn’t been able to do in the past — neither George nor Butler has the best track record on that front either.

If the Sixers don’t land a star using their cap room – Brandon Ingram and OG Anunoby have been mentioned as other possible targets who wouldn’t be quite as highly paid in 2024/25 as George or Butler – the expectation is that they’ll focus on signing useful role players to lucrative short-term contracts, similar to the one Bruce Brown got from Indiana last summer.

With several teams chasing Brown using the full mid-level exception (starting at $12.4MM), the Pacers took advantage of their cap room to give him a two-year deal that started at $22MM and included a second-year team option worth $23MM. It made Brown an ideal trade chip when the club needed a salary-matching piece for Pascal Siakam a few months later. And if that trade opportunity hadn’t arisen, Indiana would have had the option of clearing Brown’s salary off the books after just one year, regaining cap flexibility.

If Philadelphia takes a similar route, free agents like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Klay Thompson, and Malik Monk look like a few of the most logical targets. The Nuggets and Warriors would have luxury-tax and apron concerns if they have to match a big starting salary for Caldwell-Pope or Thompson, respectively, while the Kings are limited to offering Monk a starting salary in the $17.4MM range since they only hold his Early Bird rights.

A tier or two below those guys, Caleb Martin, Kyle Anderson, Monte Morris, Reggie Jackson, Precious Achiuwa, and Malik Beasley are among the other free agents whose current teams may face financial restrictions due to their proximity to the tax (or, in Beasley’s case, a lack of Bird rights). If he hadn’t already had a brief stint in Philadelphia, I’d view center Andre Drummond as another ideal target for the Sixers, since he could back up Embiid and slide into the starting five if and when the star center is unavailable. I still think he makes a lot of sense.

While going this direction could be a more prudent path than spending nearly $50MM on a single player entering his mid-30s, it might cost upwards of $50MM in 2024/25 to land a pair of those top-tier Plan B targets (KCP, Thompson, and Monk), so the Sixers’ cap room could disappear almost as quickly.

No matter what direction Philadelphia goes with its cap space, it will be crucial for the team to nail its minimum-salary signings once its room dries up. That was one of the Suns’ issues this past season — they signed eight players to minimum-salary contracts last summer, but fewer than half of them earned regular minutes. The Sixers will aim to do better with the back half of their roster.

Of the players who finished this past season in Philadelphia, Kyle Lowry, Kelly Oubre, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, and Cameron Payne are among the useful role players who might be willing to return for the veteran’s minimum (though I think some of them could do better than that on the open market). There will be other options around the league as well, especially if the Sixers can offer them a shot at regular minutes and a chance to contend.

Tobias Harris, Hield, and De’Anthony Melton aren’t minimum-salary players, so if the Sixers want to bring any of them back, it would cut into their cap room. Harris and Hield seem unlikely to return though, meaning Melton is the only one Philadelphia might have to account for.

The versatile defensive-minded guard made $8MM last season and would be a great re-addition at that price again using the room exception. If he’d finished the season healthy, Melton would definitely have stronger offers than that, but given the back issues that limited him to six games after January 12, that’s no longer a sure thing, which could work in Philadelphia’s favor.

I don’t mind the idea of the 76ers keeping the No. 16 overall pick, since it would give them an opportunity to get a team-friendly four-year contract on their books, but there are scenarios in which I think a trade makes more sense. One of my favorite concepts is a potential deal with the Wizards – who are said to be seeking another first-round pick – for Corey Kispert, a sharpshooter who was drafted by the previous front office in Washington and is in line for a rookie scale extension this offseason.

To be clear, I have no insider information suggesting the Sixers and Wizards are exploring such a trade, and it’s possible Philadelphia would have to sweeten the pot beyond offering a mid-first-rounder in a weak draft. But a trade target like Kispert would make perfect sense, since he’d take up only a small fraction of the team’s cap room this summer (he’s owed $5.7MM in 2024/25, not much more than the $4MM cap hold for the No. 16 pick) and then would get a raise in a year, when the 76ers would be in position to pay him.

With so many options available to them this offseason, it’s impossible to predict exactly how the Sixers’ offseason will play out. But that unpredictability is what will make them one of the most fun clubs to follow in the next month or two, with the pressure on Morey to get Embiid (who turned 30 in March) the supporting cast he needs to vie for his first championship.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • Jeff Dowtin ($2,196,970): Non-Bird rights
    • Dowtin’s salary would remain non-guaranteed if his option is exercised.
  • Total: $2,196,970

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 16 overall pick ($4,032,240 cap hold)
  • No. 41 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $4,032,240

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Sixers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Sixers project to operate under the cap. They would have to renounce six trade exceptions (the largest of which is worth $6,831,413) in order to use cap room.

  • Room exception: $8,006,000
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Sacramento Kings

June 7th, 2024 at 9:24pm CST by Luke Adams

The Kings were one of the NBA’s feel-good stories of the 2022/23 season. First-year head coach Mike Brown led Sacramento to its best record (48-34) since 2005 and its first playoff berth since 2006, with no team scoring more points per 100 possessions (118.6) than the Kings.

In many ways, the sequel in 2023/24 was a worthy follow-up — despite dealing with injuries to a couple key role players down the stretch, the Kings won 46 games, registering consecutive seasons above .500 for the first time in nearly two decades.

But the vibes weren’t quite as good in Sacramento for a few reasons. For one, while Brown surely appreciated the improvements on defense (the Kings went from 24th in ’22/23 to 14th this past season), the No. 1 offense took a major step back (to 13th) and wasn’t the crowd-pleasing, well-oiled machine it was a year earlier.

More importantly, with the postseason drought over, the expectations were higher in Sacramento, where the goal was to take another step forward and perhaps win a playoff series. Instead, the Kings found themselves fighting for their postseason life in a more competitive Western Conference.

A year after their 48 wins comfortably earned them the No. 3 seed, the Kings claimed the No. 9 spot in the West despite winning only two fewer regular season games. They got some level of revenge against the Warriors – who eliminated them in the first round in 2023 – in the 9 vs. 10 play-in game, but fell to the Pelicans in the play-in game to determine the conference’s No. 8 seed, bringing their season to an end before the playoffs tipped off in earnest.

A team’s improvement isn’t always linear, so the slight downturn this season doesn’t mean this version of the Kings can’t continue to get better in 2024/25. With no dominant franchises far ahead of the pack in the West, the front office may not have to make major changes to the roster to become a legitimate contender. Still, Monte McNair and his basketball operations team figure to do all they can this summer to figure out how to upgrade the current group with somewhat limited resources.

The Kings’ Offseason Plan

The Kings took care of one of the most important items on their offseason to-do list a week ago, reaching an agreement on a multiyear extension for Brown. The veteran coach signed a four-year contract with the franchise when he was hired in 2022, but the final year was a mutual option, so he would’ve essentially been on an expiring deal in 2024/25 if negotiations between the two sides had reached an impasse, which briefly looked like it might happen last month.

Brown’s has yet to win a championship as a head coach, but his playoff résumé is still relatively strong, which bodes well for Sacramento going forward — he has a winning overall record (50-40) in the postseason and advanced beyond the first round for six straight seasons with the Cavaliers and Lakers. He’s also respected throughout the league, is one year removed from earning Coach of the Year honors, and is the best coach the Kings have had in quite some time.

Given the rising cost of coaching salaries around the NBA, Sacramento did well to secure Brown to a three-year deal with a base value of $8.5MM per year (it can be worth up to $10MM annually with incentives). If things go south in the next year or two, the Kings aren’t on the hook for Brown long-term, and if things go well, they can be more confident about offering him an eight-figure salary commensurate with what some of his more accomplished colleagues around the NBA have received in the last year or two.

With Brown locked up, the focus in the coming weeks will be on the roster, where the biggest question is what will happen with free agent wing Malik Monk. The Sixth Man of the Year runner-up in 2024, Monk has been one of the Kings’ most important rotation players in the past couple years, evolving into more than just a shooter. His 3.9 assists per game in 2022/23 were a career high, which he promptly eclipsed by bumping that number to 5.1 APG in ’23/24.

The challenge when it comes to re-signing Monk is twofold. For one, Sacramento only holds the 26-year-old’s Early Bird rights, which means the team can offer up to a 75% raise on his previous $9.95MM salary (with 8% annual raises in subsequent years). That works out to about $17.4MM in year one and just shy of $78MM in total over four years. That would be a strong offer, but it’s possible a team with cap room and a need for shooting (Detroit? Orlando?) would top it.

In comments to reporters after the season, Monk suggested he wouldn’t necessarily just accept the biggest offer he gets, but if another suitor gives him more money than the Kings can put on the table and offers him a starting role, it could be hard to turn it down.

Even if we assume the Kings are able to re-sign Monk with an Early Bird offer, giving him a sizable salary bump would put the club in danger of surpassing the luxury tax line. Taking into account Keon Ellis‘ non-guaranteed salary and the cap hold for the No. 13 pick, Sacramento has about $155MM on the books for 12 players. Adding a $17.4MM salary for Monk would push that total above the projected luxury tax line ($171.3MM) with at least one more roster spot to be filled.

Letting the veteran shooting guard walk – or losing him to a higher bidder – would create enough breathing room below the tax line for Sacramento use its entire non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12.9MM) on a replacement, but it would be unrealistic to expect the MLE to yield a player whose impact would match or exceed Monk’s. I expect the Kings to push to re-sign him and then address the tax issue later if necessary — it probably wouldn’t be too challenging to shed a contract or two to duck the tax if that’s what team ownership wants.

Of course, if Monk returns, the Kings’ roster in 2024/25 could look quite similar to the one we saw this past season. The team wouldn’t be able to do much in free agency after re-signing Monk and could end up just adding a new prospect with the No. 13 pick, salary-dumping a modest contract (maybe Sasha Vezenkov and his $6.66MM cap hit), and perhaps swapping out a couple back-of-the-roster minimum-salary players.

While that wouldn’t inspire a ton of excitement heading into the fall, it wouldn’t be a total disaster. Sacramento has high hopes for 2022’s No. 4 overall pick Keegan Murray, a big 23-year-old wing who increased his scoring average to 15.2 PPG in 2023/24 and has made 38.4% of his three-pointers since entering the league two years ago. Murray made improvements on the defensive end in his sophomore season and is the sort of breakout candidate who could legitimately raise the Kings’ ceiling if he continues to develop into a two-way star.

Turning to the trade market would be another option for the Kings, who probably wouldn’t mind upgrading their other forward spot, currently manned primarily by Harrison Barnes and Trey Lyles. Sacramento was viewed as a possible Pascal Siakam suitor before he was traded to the Pacers, but putting together a package for that caliber of player without including Murray isn’t simple.

The Kings’ other recent lottery pick, Davion Mitchell (No. 9 in 2021), is a solid defender, but he fell below a two-way player (Ellis) on the backcourt depth chart at times and doesn’t have nearly the trade value that Murray would. A trade package built around Mitchell and either Barnes or Kevin Huerter and future first-round picks would have some appeal, but could probably be outbid by other would-be contenders seeking a star.

It’s also worth noting that, after finishing in the lottery this year, the Kings still owe a 2025 first-round pick to Atlanta, meaning the earliest first-rounder they can trade (outside of this year’s No. 13 pick) would be in 2027 — and it could be pushed back by a year if Sacramento’s 2025 first-round selection lands in the top 12 and is protected again.

Rather than taking a huge swing on the trade market, perhaps the Kings will gauge the value of a package headlined by Huerter and a future first-rounder (or this year’s No. 13). Huerter is a talented outside shooter, but he’s coming off shoulder surgery and his limitations on defense prompted Brown to experiment with starting Chris Duarte in his place in January.

Barnes’ underrated two-way contributions have arguably been more meaningful than Huerter’s, so the veteran forward should only end up on the trade block if a clear upgrade at his position is available. Huerter looks to me like the more expendable salary-matching piece, especially since the Kings have a good deal of shooting elsewhere on the roster. Sacramento could also potentially add another outside threat with the No. 13 pick in the draft, though the club could go in any number of directions with that lottery selection and should probably just be targeting the best player available if the pick isn’t traded.

We’ve made it this far without mentioning the Kings’ two stars – Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox – but their contract situations are relatively stable and they won’t be going anywhere anytime soon. That’s especially true of Sabonis, who signed a new deal last summer and will be under team control for four more seasons.

Fox has two years left on his current pact and will be extension-eligible this offseason. The star guard may want to see if he can gain super-max eligibility by making an All-NBA team next spring, lining himself up for a maximum salary worth up to 35% of the cap instead of 30%. So if he and the Kings pass on an extension this offseason, there will be no reason for concern — if they still can’t come to terms in 2025, that could spell trouble, but there’s no indication at this point that we’re headed down that path.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 13 overall pick ($4,702,800 cap hold)
  • No. 45 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $4,702,800

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Chris Duarte (rookie scale)
  • De’Aaron Fox (veteran)
  • Kevin Huerter (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of October 1.
  • Davion Mitchell (rookie scale)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Kings project to operate over the cap and under the first tax apron.

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
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