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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Dallas Mavericks

May 21st, 2023 at 8:53am CST by Rory Maher

After going 24-58 in 2017/18 and landing the No. 5 overall pick in the 2018 draft, the Mavericks traded up two slots to select Luka Doncic. The move paid immediate dividends, with the Slovenian winning Rookie of the Year in ’18/19 and Dallas increasing its win total by nine games (33-49).

That steady upward trajectory continued in Doncic’s second through fourth seasons, with the Mavs improving in each regular season from 2020-22. The same was true of the playoffs, with Dallas losing in the first round to the Clippers in six and then seven games, and then making it all the way to the Western Conference Finals a year ago, falling to the eventual champion Warriors.

Doncic’s offensive brilliance was on full display again in 2022/23, with the 24-year-old posting career highs in points per game (32.4), field goal percentage (49.6%) and true percentage (60.9%) while cutting down on turnovers (3.6 vs. 4.5 in ’21/22). He also averaged 8.6 rebounds, 8.0 assists and 1.4 steals in 66 games (36.2 minutes) en route to a fourth consecutive All-NBA First Team honor.

However, basketball is a team game, and Doncic played a role in the team’s significant defensive regression. While the Mavs improved on offense, going from 14th to sixth, they slid all the way down to 25th defensively after ranking seventh last season. After going 52-30 with a plus-3.5 net rating in ’21/22, the Mavs went 38-44 with a minus-0.2 net rating this season and missed the play-in tournament completely.

The Mavericks’ Offseason Plan:

Dallas was highly criticized throughout the season for opting against re-signing Jalen Brunson, who has publicly said he would have agreed to an extension ($55.6MM over four years) in ’21/22 had the Mavs offered it prior to or early in the season. Instead, he signed with the Knicks for $104MM over four years, and it’s looking like a terrific value deal considering his excellent play during the regular season and postseason with New York.

The only other significant roster tweak the Mavs made last summer was trading their first-round pick (26th overall) and four smallish expiring contracts for Christian Wood. The 27-year-old big man never seemed to ingratiate himself with the coaching staff though, likely due to his defensive struggles. Multiple reports have indicated (and GM Nico Harrison suggested) that the Mavs are unlikely re-sign the impending free agent.

Wood’s lack of defensive awareness is not a new problem, so I’m not sure why Dallas thought he’d suddenly get better there. Regardless, it certainly sounds like the talented scorer will be on a new team next season after averaging 16.6 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.1 blocks on .515/.376/.772 shooting in 67 games with the Mavs (17 starts, 25.6 minutes).

Dallas’ free agent role player group features Dwight Powell, Justin Holiday, Theo Pinson, Frank Ntilikina and Markieff Morris. Powell probably has the best chance to return as the longest-tenured member of the team, but only if he’s willing to accept a substantial pay cut after earning $11MM in 2022/23 — his play has declined in recent seasons.

The biggest offseason question surrounding the Mavs relates to their trade deadline acquisition of Kyrie Irving, who is also a free agent. The move was made to kick-start their season in an effort to make the playoffs, but that’s not how things turned out — Dallas was 30-26 and clinging to the No. 5 seed prior to Irving’s first game, and went 8-18 the rest of the way.

I’m certainly not blaming that on Irving. The Mavs were 8-12 when he played, which isn’t great, but they were much, much better when he was on the court (plus-5.8) than when he was off (minus-8.3). His individual numbers (27.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.3 steals on .510/.392/.947 shooting in 20 games) were stellar, and by all accounts he didn’t cause any disruptions in the locker room.

Still, the fact that Dallas was 5-11 with both Irving and Doncic in the lineup was problematic, and shows the difficulty of constructing a roster around two dominant offensive players who can be borderline liabilities at times on the other end. The fact that they traded away their best defensive player (Dorian Finney-Smith) to acquire Irving didn’t help matters.

Harrison, head coach Jason Kidd, and owner Mark Cuban have all publicly stated they want to re-sign Irving. They also said they wanted to bring back Brunson last year (Cuban talked about having his Bird rights and being able to offer more money than a rival team), so those comments offer no guarantees. Whether they should retain Irving is a different question.

True, they gave up a lot to get him, and they don’t have an easy way to replace his salary slot. Losing him for nothing isn’t an option they can seriously consider. But do they really want to give him a five-year max contract worth a projected $272MM? I’d be shocked if they actually offer that, and would consider it organizational malpractice.

Based purely on his on-court value, there’s no question that Irving is a max player…when he actually plays. The problem is, he has only appeared in 70-plus games in three of his 12 seasons, missing extended time due to injuries and various off-court issues. The unwanted attention he brings off the court can’t be overlooked, nor can his mercurial, unpredictable nature.

He reportedly requested a trade from the Nets in part because they refused to offer him a full max extension. So even if the Mavs offer a three- or four-year max deal (which would align with Doncic’s contract), would he accept it? Who knows.

Let’s say he does accept a slightly shorter-term max deal. That would start at a projected $46.9MM next season, and the Mavs already have $103.6MM committed to eight players — $108.6MM if they guarantee the rest of Reggie Bullock‘s salary, which seems likely if he isn’t traded. Even filling out the rest of the roster with minimum-salary contracts would push Dallas perilously close to the luxury tax apron in that scenario, and would remove the option of using the full mid-level and bi-annual exceptions.

The Mavs would have to make a pretty significant cost-cutting move just to regain full access to those exceptions. But doing that would mean parting with one or more of their assets, and that cupboard is already scarce after the Kristaps Porzingis and Irving trades. Further depleting that pool would lessen the odds of improving the roster, and they’re desperately trying to win as soon as possible.

They control their own 2023 lottery pick (No. 10 overall) after tanking the last few games of ’22/23, but the only other first-rounder they can unconditionally trade right now is ’27, because their other picks are encumbered (they still owe the Knicks a top-10 protected first). Rival teams would be interested in Josh Green (who’s eligible for a rookie scale extension) and Jaden Hardy, but they’re the most interesting young players on the roster outside of Doncic.

Tim Hardaway Jr. has long been rumored as a trade candidate, but his contract ($34MM through ’24/25) has neutral value at best. Dallas would definitely have to give up assets to move off the $33MM it owes Davis Bertans over the next two seasons. Ditto, to a lesser extent, for JaVale McGee ($11.7MM through ’24/25). Maxi Kleber ($11MM each of the next three seasons) probably has positive value, although he didn’t quite look right after returning from a torn hamstring, and he’s also arguably the best defender left on the roster.

The Mavs will certainly be aggressive in trying to improve their defense and rebounding, which ranked last in the league. Another losing campaign runs the risk of Doncic requesting a trade, because the disappointing season clearly did not sit well with the young star. But it won’t be easy to build a contender with their limited available assets and some of the bad contracts already on the books.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Reggie Bullock ($5,038,400)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Bullock’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 28.
  • Total: $5,038,400

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 10 overall ($5,212,800)
  • Total: $5,212,800

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Irving, Powell, and Wood are only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Melli and Wright remain on the Mavericks’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $958,529
    • Note: Expires on June 26.

Note: The Mavericks would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: New Orleans Pelicans

May 20th, 2023 at 10:42am CST by Luke Adams

After acquiring CJ McCollum at the 2022 trade deadline, the Pelicans went on an impressive late-season run, earning a playoff spot with a pair of play-in tournament victories and then giving the top-ranked Suns a scare in the first round by pushing the series to six games.

With former No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson healthy to begin the 2022/23 season, there was optimism that New Orleans could make the leap to top-six playoff team and legitimate title contender. And as long as Williamson was on the court, that belief looked entirely warranted. Through the end of December, the Pelicans were 23-13, putting them in a tie for the No. 2 seed in the West, and their +4.8 net rating was the best in the conference.

Unfortunately, the Pelicans’ first game of 2023 was the last one of the season for Williamson, who suffered a hamstring injury that ultimately sidelined him for the remainder of the winter and spring. New Orleans went into a tailspin later in January, ultimately finishing the season on a 19-27 run and then losing a play-in game at home to the 10th-seeded Thunder.

While the Pelicans’ early-season success was encouraging, their reversal of fortunes once Williamson went down was a reminder that they don’t have enough talent to consistently win without him and that they can’t rely on him to stay on the court — he has played more than 29 games just once in his first four NBA seasons.

The Pelicans aren’t trading or waiving Williamson, so all they can really do with Zion is hope for better injury luck. But they can at least take matters into their own hands with the rest of the roster, seeking out upgrades that will allow them to remain more competitive when the star forward isn’t available.

The Pelicans’ Offseason Plan:

With nearly $144MM in guaranteed money committed to eight players, the Pelicans won’t have cap room this offseason. However, once they lock in low-cost team options and non-guaranteed salaries for players like Herbert Jones, Jose Alvarado, and Naji Marshall, they should remain comfortably below the luxury tax line, giving them the flexibility to go shopping in free agency using most of their non-taxpayer mid-level exception.

New Orleans also has a bevy of trade chips available to seek out roster upgrades. Even if the Pelicans aren’t inclined to move any of their valuable young role players – Jones, Alvarado, Dyson Daniels, and Trey Murphy – they control all their own future first-round picks, including a 2023 lottery pick (No. 14). They also own the Lakers’ 2024 first-rounder (unprotected, with the option to defer it to 2025), the Bucks’ unprotected 2027 pick, and swap rights with Milwaukee in 2024 and 2026. In other words, they have the draft assets necessary to build a strong trade package around picks rather than players.

As they evaluate potential targets free agency or via trade, the Pelicans will have to consider what their plans are at center. Jonas Valanciunas, who started all but three games for New Orleans this past season, will earn $15.4MM in 2023/24 on an expiring contract.

As effective as Valanciunas is as a scorer and rebounder, he’s not a switchable defender, and head coach Willie Green often turned to Larry Nance Jr. at center in crunch-time minutes during the second half of the ’22/23 season. If Valanciunas isn’t in New Orleans’ long-term plans, his contract makes him an ideal salary-matching piece in any major trade, since McCollum ($35.8MM), Brandon Ingram ($33.8MM), and Williamson ($33.5MM) almost certainly aren’t going anywhere.

Valanciunas’ salary, for instance, would be a logical match for Raptors forward OG Anunoby ($18.6MM), who has been repeatedly linked to a New Orleans team that could use another two-way wing. Toronto won’t necessarily be eager to reunite with Valanciunas if Jakob Poeltl re-signs, and I’d expect the Raptors to push for players over picks in any major trade, since they don’t control their own 2024 first-round pick. Still, Anunoby is the sort of player the Pelicans figure to target on the trade market — and they have the pieces to get him if they’re willing to be aggressive.

If Valanciunas is moved for an upgrade at another position, it would leave the Pelicans without an obvious starting center on the roster. Former lottery pick Jaxson Hayes will be eligible for restricted free agency and hasn’t shown in his four NBA seasons that he’s ready to step into a starting role. Even if they plan to lean more on players like Nance, Williamson, and Jones as small-ball fives, the Pels would need to address the center position in some form if they were to trade Valanciunas and let Hayes walk. The mid-level exception could come in handy in that regard.

Of course, there’s no guarantee the Pelicans will do anything significant on the trade market this summer. Re-signing Josh Richardson would help fortify the team’s wing depth, and the hope is that youngsters like Murphy, Daniels, and Jones will continue to get better. Internal improvement and a healthy season from Williamson could make New Orleans a contender even without any real outside additions — and it would give the organization an opportunity to take a longer look at which pieces fit best around Zion.

Until they see Williamson play something close to a full season though, it’s hard for the Pelicans to count on that happening. The time might be right for David Griffin and the front office to work on a contingency plan that boosts the floor of this roster, with the hope that a healthy Zion will take its ceiling to new heights.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Garrett Temple ($5,401,000)
    • Note: Temple’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Jose Alvarado ($1,836,096)
  • Total: $7,237,096

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

  • None

Draft Picks

  • No. 14 overall ($4,246,200)
  • Total: $4,246,200

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Willy Hernangomez (veteran)
  • Brandon Ingram (veteran)
  • Herbert Jones (veteran)
  • Naji Marshall (veteran)
  • Garrett Temple (veteran)
  • Jonas Valanciunas (veteran)
  • Kira Lewis (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Hernangomez and Jones would only become eligible if their team options are exercised. Valanciunas will become eligible on October 20, which will be right around the start of the regular season.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players listed in italics remain on the Pelicans’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000

Note: The Pelicans would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Chicago Bulls

May 19th, 2023 at 4:00pm CST by Rory Maher

After winning between 22 and 31 games for four straight seasons from 2018-21, the Bulls took a major step forward in the first half of 2021/22, going 27-13 with offseason additions DeMar DeRozan, Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball playing key roles in their success. They were the No. 1 seed in the East on January 14 of last year.

Unfortunately, Ball tore his meniscus that day against Golden State, and hasn’t played a game since, having undergone three different knee surgeries to address persistent pain. Caruso dealt with multiple injuries of his own, and the Bulls weren’t the same team the rest of the way, going 19-23 to close out the season and getting eliminated in the first round of the playoffs as the No. 6 seed.

Caruso was healthier in ’22/23, but Ball’s void was felt all season long, with Chicago going 40-42 and entering the play-in tournament as the No. 10 seed. The Bulls were able to sneak past Toronto thanks to late-game heroics by Zach LaVine (after the Raptors went 18-of-36 on free throws and blew a 19-point lead), but fell in a close game to the Heat, who advanced as the No. 8 seed.

Chicago is a hard team to pin down. You would expect a club led by three offense-first multi-time All-Stars to be highly effective on that end, but after ranking 13th last season, they were just 24th in offensive rating in ’22/23. Similarly, you would not expect them to be stout defensively, yet after ranking 23rd a year ago, they had the fifth-best defense in the league this season.

The Bulls’ Offseason Plan:

Chicago has a couple great players (LaVine and DeRozan), an All-Defensive First Team guard (Caruso), and some young talent. Still, it feels like the Bulls are stuck in no-man’s land.

A big part of that is due to Ball’s balky knee, and there’s still no timetable for his return – it’s possible his career could be over. It has been a brutal series of events, because Ball is a very good two-way player. The Bulls have gone just 59-65 since he was injured – a large sample size of blah play.

Having a $20.5MM cap hit on your books (and a $21.4MM player option for ‘24/25 that he Ball will certainly exercise) for a player who might not play at all for a second consecutive season really hurts your team’s flexibility. It’s no one’s fault either. Sure, Ball had injuries in the past, but nothing like this.

The Nikola Vucevic trade was an unmitigated disaster, but the Bulls don’t have a viable way to replace the impending free agent’s production, so it feels like they need to extend him, re-sign him, or at least explore sign-and-trade scenarios. They can’t just lose him for nothing. He played well in 2022/23 after a down year in ’21/22, but he’s limited defensively and will be 33 years old at the start of next season.

That deal is why the Bulls don’t have a lottery pick in June’s draft — it landed 11th overall and will be sent to Orlando to complete the trade (they also gave up Wendell Carter and their 2021 first-round pick, which turned into Franz Wagner – ouch). Chicago also doesn’t control its second-rounder (via Denver) due to free agency gun-jumping when the team completed its sign-and-trade for Ball.

With nearly $112MM committed to just six players, and a couple of $3.4MM player options (Andre Drummond and Derrick Jones Jr.), becoming a cap room team doesn’t make sense. Even if Drummond and Jones opt out, the Bulls would only be able to create about $16MM in space. They would be better off re-signing some of their own free agents and using their $12.2MM non-taxpayer mid-level exception, but they can’t just bring back the same core roster again and expect different results.

DeRozan turns 34 years old this summer, is entering the final year of his contract, and will be eligible for a veteran extension. That makes him a logical trade candidate, but his age, expiring deal, subpar defense and well-documented playoff struggles somewhat limit his market value.

Don’t get me wrong, I have a ton of respect for DeRozan. You can tell he puts a ton of work into his craft, and he has improved tremendously throughout his career. I’m just not sure how much the Bulls could realistically get for him if they made him available – maybe a late lottery pick, matching salaries and a decent young player? That’s nothing to sneeze at, but it could take a while to translate into wins.

LaVine would have far more trade value. He’s only 28 and is under contract for four more years (the last year is a player option). The Knicks are a logical suitor, and reportedly talked to the Bulls about him ahead of the February deadline.

Do the Bulls want to trade the player they tried to build around? Do the Knicks want to trade multiple first-round picks and young players for a star who is a legitimately great shooter and scorer (they do need both of those things), but isn’t a great defender or decision-maker?

I don’t know the answer to either of those questions, but I do know Chicago’s current roster isn’t good enough to contend for a title and isn’t bad enough to land a top draft pick. The Bulls have to pick a path.

There’s nothing preventing the Bulls from trading both of their stars and starting from scratch. They could always prioritize young players instead of draft capital if they want to retool instead of doing a full-fledged rebuild. Caruso is worth keeping an eye on as well – the defensive stalwart drew a lot of interest leading up to the trade deadline and is on a team-friendly contract through ‘24/25, so he’d have quite a bit of value.

Aside from the big-picture roster questions, forward Patrick Williams will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this summer. I’d be a little surprised if a deal gets done. While Williams has a lot of upside, he’s also been very inconsistent (which is normal for a young player). I suspect there might be a gap in what his agents are looking for and what the team wants to pay.

That said, I would not trade Williams if I were running the team. He could be special if he figures it out, and even if he doesn’t, he’d still be coveted due to his two-way skill set. I’d also re-sign Coby White, who’s a restricted free agent – I think he’ll get somewhere around the mid-level exception, and he’s improved from his first couple seasons.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Carlik Jones ($1,927,896)
    • Note: Jones would receive a partial guarantee ($250K) if he’s not waived on or before the first day of the 2023/24 regular season.
  • Marko Simonovic ($1,836,096)
    • Note: Simonovic’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 7.
  • Total: $3,763,992

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Lonzo Ball (veteran)
  • Alex Caruso (veteran)
  • DeMar DeRozan (veteran)
  • Marko Simonovic (veteran)
  • Patrick Williams (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000

Note: The Bulls would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Orlando Magic

May 18th, 2023 at 2:08pm CST by Rory Maher

The Magic have been the worst team in the NBA over the past decade, recording a 289-512 record in the last 10 seasons. They won fewer than 30 games in six of those campaigns, only finishing above .500 once (42-40), when they lost in the first round of the playoffs in 2018/19.

However, there are plenty of reasons for optimism going forward. For starters, Orlando exceeded external expectations in 2022/23, increasing its year-end win total from 22 to 34.

With two lottery picks in 2023 (sixth and 11th), an extra first-round pick via Denver in 2025, all of their own future firsts, and several extra seconds, the Magic have a nice haul of draft assets. They also have an impressive young core headlined by Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero and standout sophomore Franz Wagner.

The Magic’s Offseason Plan:

If they really wanted to, the Magic could create nearly $60MM in cap room this summer if they choose not to guarantee any of their own salaries and renounce all of their free agents and cap holds (aside from the lottery picks). That’s highly unlikely though.

The far more realistic scenario is they’ll have somewhere in the range of $25-45MM in cap room, depending on what they do with Gary Harris and Jonathan Isaac. Harris’ $13MM contract for next season is fully non-guaranteed, while Isaac — who has played just 11 games over the past three seasons — has a $17.4MM cap hit, of which only $7.6MM is guaranteed.

Markelle Fultz should be a lock to have his full $17MM salary for ‘23/24 guaranteed – he’s only owed $2MM as of now. The former first overall pick played a major role in the Magic turning their season around. After Orlando started 5-16 without him, Fultz appeared in 60 of the team’s 61 remaining games — the Magic had a 29-31 record in those 60 games, losing the lone contest he sat in April.

The young guard has been plagued by injuries throughout his six NBA seasons, only appearing in 191 total games. But he was productive when healthy in ‘22/23, averaging career highs in points (14.0), assists (5.7), rebounds (3.9), steals (1.5), and minutes per game (29.6), as well as field goal percentage (51.4%).

Fultz still struggles from long distance, converting just 31% of his three-pointers on low volume (1.5 attempts per game). However, he’s an explosive and crafty finisher around the rim, is quite accurate on mid-range jumpers (45.8%, which ranked in the 70th percentile, per DunksAndThrees.com), and is a solid defensive player.

There are three reasons why I’m discussing Fultz so extensively. One, if the Magic guarantee his salary, he’ll be eligible for an extension. Two, his outside shooting woes affect the rest of the team, because it’s the biggest roster weakness. Three, it has been floated that Orlando might pursue a veteran point guard with its cap space, with Fred VanVleet being rumored as a target.

Is VanVleet a better player than Fultz right now? Yes. He’s a far more willing – and better – outside shooter than Fultz, even if he’s coming off a highly erratic campaign that saw him post a career-low 34.2% from beyond the arc. He’s also four years older and looked a half step slower on defense in ‘22/23.

VanVleet is rumored to be seeking a contract similar to what Jrue Holiday received a couple years ago, which was $135MM over four years (incentives increased the value a bit). I like VanVleet, and he has outplayed his current contract. But I don’t think he’s worth double Fultz’s salary, particularly with Cole Anthony eligible for a rookie scale extension and Jalen Suggs still having two years left on his rookie contract.

If I were running the Magic, I would rather let those young guards and the rest of the roster continue to develop, and look to add younger wing talent and shooting via the draft and less expensive free agent targets.

Some potential free agent names of interest: Austin Reaves (restricted), Cameron Johnson (restricted), Gary Trent Jr. (player option), Donte DiVincenzo (player option) and Max Strus (unrestricted). Johnson shares positional overlap at forward with Banchero and Wagner, but I don’t think that’s a big deal – he’s great at playing off the ball and is one of the best shooters on the market (the Magic have also shown a willingness to experiment with position-less lineups).

Orlando’s only real rotation player who’s a free agent is Moritz Wagner, who had a solid season as the backup center. The Magic have his Bird rights, so they won’t have to earmark cap room or an exception to re-sign him, assuming they want him back.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Markelle Fultz ($15,000,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Fultz’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Gary Harris ($13,000,000)
    • Note: Harris’ salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Jonathan Isaac ($9,800,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee.
  • Bol Bol ($2,200,000)
    • Note: Bol’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Total: $40,000,000

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

  • None

Draft Picks

  • No. 6 overall ($7,137,840)
  • No. 11 overall ($4,952,160)
  • No. 36 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $12,090,000

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Markelle Fultz (veteran)
  • Jonathan Isaac (veteran)
  • Cole Anthony (rookie scale)
  • Chuma Okeke (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players in italics remain on the Magic’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $7,609,000
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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Washington Wizards

May 16th, 2023 at 2:49pm CST by Rory Maher

The Wizards haven’t had a 50-win season since 1978/79, when they lost in the NBA Finals after winning the title the year before. In fact, they’ve only won more than 45 games twice over the lengthy period since then — both in the mid-2010s when John Wall-led teams made the Eastern Conference Semifinals a few times.

Things went about as expected in ’22/23. Washington’s over/under entering the season was 35.5 wins, and the team won exactly 35 for the second consecutive season.

There were some positive developments — Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis had career years, while Corey Kispert turned into a solid rotation player in year two — but they were mostly offset by disappointments in other areas. Bradley Beal was plagued by injuries for the second straight season and lottery pick Johnny Davis spent most of his rookie season in the G League, struggling when he did get NBA minutes.

The Wizards, who finished 22nd in the league in offense and 21st in defense, don’t really have an identity on either end of the court (they were 21st in offense and 25th in defense in ‘21/22).

Where the Wizards go from here is an open question. They don’t have the types of young players teams typically build around, nor the cache of future draft picks (they actually owe a protected first to the Knicks). Getting lucky in the draft lottery would be a good start – the Wizards have the eighth-best odds at landing the No. 1 overall pick and a 28.9% chance at a top-four selection.

The Wizards’ Offseason Plan:

What many league observers think the Wizards should do and what they actually do are often at odds. Maybe that will change when the team hires a new head of basketball operations after firing Tommy Sheppard.

Either way, it’s an important offseason for the Wizards. Kuzma has already said he plans to turn down his $13MM player option to secure a larger payday. Will Porzingis decline his $36MM option as well? Perhaps. There were reportedly “serious” talks regarding an extension a couple months ago, but that was before the front office change. It’s impossible to know how a new regime would feel about that.

Porzingis had an outstanding season, making a positive impact on both sides of the ball. He’s only 27 years old, so he’s theoretically in his prime. He has also missed extended time due to injuries throughout his career. Re-signing him is a risk, but Washington doesn’t have a ready-made replacement on its roster.

If both players decline their options and the Wizards renounce their other free agents and cap holds (except their first-round pick), they’d have about $30MM in cap room to work with. I don’t see which players they could target with that money that would be better than Kuzma and Porzingis. A sign-and-trade involving one (or both) theoretically could work if Washington wants reshuffle the deck.

Former first-round pick Deni Avdija will be eligible for a rookie scale extension as well. He has a good feel for the game and is a solid defender, but his jump shot is very erratic. Trading Rui Hachimura freed up playing time for Avdija, and he played well down the stretch. Still, it’s hard to envision any rush to extend him unless it’s a team-friendly rate.

Perhaps the biggest question facing the Wizards hasn’t changed: Is Beal a star worth building around? There are multiple seasons worth of evidence indicating the answer is no.

The issue is that he’s coming off two injury-riddled seasons and still has four years and more than $200MM left on his contract — his value is arguably at its lowest point in years. Washington would likely get pennies on the dollar in return for the veteran guard unless they find a team that thinks Beal would push it over the hump.

Would Philadelphia be interested in a Beal for Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris trade? Harris’ deal is expiring and Maxey is going to command a significant payday soon, as he’s about to enter the final season of his rookie deal. Is that enough of a return for Beal?

For some inexplicable reason, the Wizards gave Beal a full no-trade clause when he signed his contract last summer, a rarity in the NBA. So even if they find a suitable deal, he’d still have to approve it.

Locking in an expensive long-term core of Beal, Kuzma and Porzingis isn’t going to move the needle toward winning in any meaningful way. They’re all good players individually, but not good enough to be a top-three trio on a serious contender.

There are players with positive value on the roster, though they’re not going to return a haul of assets. Monte Morris and Delon Wright are quality backups that lots of teams would like to have, for example, and they’re entering the final years of their contracts.

There are no easy answers for this team. Owner Ted Leonsis hasn’t shown any appetite for a temporary tank despite the mediocre product of the past handful of years. The foundation is rickety, and the Wizards haven’t had success drafting in the 9-15 range over that span.

I don’t envy the person who takes over the front office of this franchise. Things can change quickly in the NBA, but it’s hard to see how the Wizards get significantly better without getting even worse than they have been lately.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jordan Goodwin ($1,627,896)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Goodwin’s partial guarantee increases to $963,948 if he isn’t waived on or before September 1.
  • Total: $1,627,896

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 8 overall ($5,969,400)
    • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
  • No. 42 overall (no cap hold)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 41 if the Thunder end up with a higher first-round pick than the Bulls via the lottery.
  • No. 57 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $5,969,400

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Kristaps Porzingis (veteran)
  • Kyle Kuzma (veteran)
  • Monte Morris (veteran)
  • Isaiah Todd (veteran)
  • Deni Avdija (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players in italics remain on the Wizards’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $6,263,188

Note: The Wizards would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron. If the Wizards go under the cap to use room, they’ll lose access to all of these exceptions and will gain access to the room exception.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

May 14th, 2023 at 9:57pm CST by Luke Adams

Nothing about the Thunder‘s offseason moves in 2022 signaled that they were preparing to make a playoff push. Oklahoma City’s lottery selection, No. 2 overall pick Chet Holmgren, suffered a season-ending injury before training camps opened, and the team’s most notable offseason addition via free agency or trade was Isaiah Joe, who signed a low-cost contract days before the regular season began after being waived by Philadelphia.

But the young core the Thunder have been putting together since they began the process of rebuilding in 2019 finally began to look like something resembling a future contender this past season, even with Holmgren not yet a part of it.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made the leap to superstardom, earning a spot on the All-NBA First Team; 2021 lottery pick Josh Giddey built on a promising rookie season by improving his numbers across the board, including bumping his shooting percentage from 41.9% to 48.2%; Luguentz Dort continued to establish himself as one of the NBA’s elite wing defenders; and 2022 lottery pick Jalen Williams made a legitimate case for Rookie of the Year honors, averaging 18.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 4.3 APG on an incredible .546/.429/.880 shooting line after the All-Star break.

The Thunder didn’t make the playoffs, but they got pretty close. They finished the regular season as the No. 10 team in the West, then beat the Pelicans in their first play-in game before falling to the Timberwolves in the battle for the conference’s final playoff spot.

While the Thunder aren’t a contender yet, their days at the bottom of the NBA’s standings appear to be over for now. With Holmgren and another lottery pick set to join an already strong core and a plethora of extra future first-round picks and swaps still on hand, Oklahoma City is trending in the right direction and could be a force to be reckoned with in the West in just a couple of years.

The Thunder’s Offseason Plan:

The hope of every tanking team is to luck into a top pick that can be used to draft a player capable of single-handedly transforming the franchise. There’s a player like that available in this year’s draft class – Victor Wembanyama is considered the best prospect to enter the NBA since LeBron James – but the Thunder’s unexpectedly strong season all but eliminated them from the Wembanyama sweepstakes — the club has just a 1.7% chance at the No. 1 overall pick.

That’s OK though. While Sam Presti and the Thunder’s front office would certainly love to add Wembanyama to the roster, this isn’t a team that desperately needs the French phenom like certain other clubs in the lottery. There’s already a very strong foundation here, and Oklahoma City’s stash of future picks puts the team in position to acquire another impact player without even touching the present core.

Still, I’d be surprised if a trade for a star is on the docket this summer. Presti and his group have shown a willingness to be patient throughout their rebuild, using their extra trade assets to target specific players they like in the draft rather than veterans.

That approach was on display last June when the Thunder traded three protected future first-rounders for the rights to the No. 11 pick, ensuring no team would be able to leapfrog them at No. 12 to snag Williams. The Thunder ultimately drafted Ousmane Dieng with the No. 11 pick, but subsequent reporting indicated Williams was the guy they wanted most in the back end of the lottery — they took him with their own pick at No. 12 in case their tentative agreement for No. 11 fell through before it became official.

Oklahoma City will most likely have the No. 12 pick again in this year’s draft. But if there’s a player a few spots higher that the front office wants badly enough, the team has the ammo necessary to go get him without compromising its future at all.

Eventually, the time may come to cash in some of those future draft picks for a win-now player, but the way the Thunder are building makes sense and has worked for Presti before; Kevin Durant, Westbrook, James Harden, and Serge Ibaka were all drafted by the team between 2007-09. With no postseason-or-bust mandate facing him, Presti can continue to add promising young pieces to this core and assess which ones fit and which ones don’t before making any major moves to fill the necessary holes.

That doesn’t mean the Thunder won’t do anything interesting this summer. Taking into account the team’s 10 players on guaranteed contracts, plus Joe’s $2MM non-guaranteed salary and the cap hold for the No. 12 overall pick, OKC could create upwards of $36MM in cap room.

In recent years, the Thunder have taken advantage of that sort of cap flexibility by accommodating salary dumps of unwanted contracts (think Kemba Walker and Derrick Favors) in order to acquire draft assets.

They’re more likely to go in that direction again than they are to go big-game hunting in free agency, but perhaps in those trade talks with cost-cutting teams the Thunder will prioritize acquiring useful rotation players rather than continuing to stockpile future draft picks. Even if they won’t be contending for a title in 2024, the Thunder might like to get their young players some playoff experience — adding a couple reliable role-playing veterans to their rotation would aid in that effort.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on Aleksej Pokusevski, the lone Thunder player who is eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason. Pokusevski, a seven-footer who can handle the ball, is still just 21 years old and has shown tantalizing potential in his first three NBA seasons, increasing his three-point percentage to 36.5% in 2022/23.

However, a leg injury essentially ended Pokusevski’s season on December 27 (he appeared in just three games after that), and OKC had a dismal minus-13.2 net rating and 118.7 defensive rating when he was on the court this season, easily the worst marks of any player on the roster. The Thunder will soon have to decide whether he has a place in their future.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 12 overall ($4,704,720)
    • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
  • No. 35 overall (no cap hold)
    • Note: The Thunder would instead receive the No. 50 overall pick if the Spurs end up with a higher first-round pick than the Rockets via the lottery.
  • No. 37 overall (no cap hold)
    • Note: The Thunder would instead receive the No. 38 overall pick if the Wizards end up with a higher first-round pick than the Pacers via the lottery.
  • Total: $4,704,720

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (veteran)
  • Dario Saric (veteran)
  • Aleksej Pokusevski (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Saric is only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players in italics remain on the Thunder’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $4,264,629
  • Trade exception: $4,220,057
    • Note: Expires on October 2.
  • Trade exception: $3,500,000
  • Trade exception: $943,000
    • Note: Expires on October 2.
  • Trade exception: $781,759
    • Note: Expires on September 27.

Note: If the Thunder go under the cap to use room, they’ll lose access to all of these exceptions and will gain access to the room exception.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Toronto Raptors

May 13th, 2023 at 2:31pm CST by Luke Adams

A playoff team for seven straight years from 2014-20, the Raptors won just 27 games in 2020/21 while playing their home games in Tampa due to COVID-related border restrictions, then got some lottery luck that spring, landing the No. 4 pick and nabbing Scottie Barnes.

When Toronto racked up 48 wins in 2021/22, it looked like that lost ’20/21 season would just be a blip on the radar, with the club poised to reclaim its place as a playoff fixture in the East. So it came as a major disappointment when the Raptors went just 41-41 in ’22/23, their worst record in a non-Tampa season since 2012/13, and were quickly eliminated from the play-in tournament.

On paper, the Raptors looked like a team that should have finished better than .500. Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet have All-Star appearances on their résumés and are still in their prime. Barnes was coming off a Rookie of the Year campaign. OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. are the types of three-and-D players that every NBA team covets. And Toronto even addressed its hole in the middle by reacquiring Jakob Poeltl from San Antonio in February.

The individuals were better than the sum of the parts though, and a thin, inconsistent bench that lost Otto Porter to a foot injury early in the season didn’t help matters. Heading into the 2023 offseason, top executives Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster will have to determine which players are still considered long-term cornerstones and which might be expendable in trades to breathe new life into the roster.

The Raptors’ Offseason Plan:

Before the Raptors make any player personnel decisions, they’ll have to determine who will be coaching the team this fall. Nick Nurse, an assistant on Dwane Casey‘s staff until 2018, won a championship in 2019 in his first year as head coach, then was named Coach of the Year in 2020. But his last few years were more of a mixed bag, with Nurse leaning too heavily on his starters and perhaps not connecting with his players in the same way he once did. The club parted ways with him last month.

Toronto’s list of interviewees is longer than that of any other team conducting a head coaching search this spring, with the team casting a wide net in its search for Nurse’s replacement. In addition to former NBA head coaches and current assistants, that list includes a EuroLeague coach (Sergio Scariolo), a WNBA coach (Becky Hammon), and a player-turned-TV-analyst (JJ Redick).

It’s hard to draw any conclusions about the Raptors’ search until we see how it ends, but the team at least seems willing to get creative and think outside the box as it seeks its new leader on the sidelines. It will be interesting to see whether Toronto’s eventual choice is one of those outside-the-box candidates or if the club will ultimately play it safe with a former NBA coach or experienced assistant.

As important as the head coaching decision is, it will be quickly overshadowed by the looming free agency of three key contributors. Poeltl is headed for unrestricted free agency, while VanVleet and Trent can join him if they decline player options for 2023/24, which is expected.

On paper, there’s a strong case to bring back all three players. Of the three, Poeltl looks like the best bet to return — Toronto gave up its top-six protected 2024 first-round pick for the veteran center and he capably filled a position that had been a revolving door since the club parted with Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka in 2020. It wouldn’t make sense for the Raptors to let him walk, so I expect him to re-sign on a three- or four-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $17-20MM annually.

VanVleet and Trent are trickier cases. VanVleet is a strong defender who was a career 38.2% three-point shooter entering 2022/23, but he wasn’t quite as stout defensively this past season, and his three-point rate dipped to 34.2%.

In theory, the 29-year-old provides the sort of floor spacing and play-making that the Raptors don’t get from many other players on the roster, and he has proven his bona fides in the postseason, playing a rotation role on the championship team in 2019. But VanVleet isn’t particularly efficient from inside the arc and his price tag could approach or even surpass $30MM per year.

Trent, meanwhile, is probably in line for a multiyear contract worth in excess of $20MM annually, given his age (24), as well as his ability to knock down outside shots (.384 career 3PT%) and hold his own on defense. That’s a fair rate, and his skill set is one the Raptors could use, but it’s a substantial price to pay for a player who projects to be a sixth man.

It’s not out of the question for the Raptors to pay Poeltl, VanVleet, and Trent and still sneak below the luxury tax line in 2023/24. But it might require some cost-cutting elsewhere on the roster, with Chris Boucher ($11.75MM) and Porter ($6.3MM) among the potential trade candidates. Boucher and Porter theoretically project to be two of Toronto’s top bench players next season, so it would be a challenge to sign all three free agents, trade Boucher and/or Porter, and find a way to upgrade the second unit.

Of course, one possibility we haven’t discussed yet is the idea of trading a core player. Barnes, 21, probably isn’t going anywhere. A sign-and-trade involving VanVleet or Trent wouldn’t be impossible. But Siakam and Anunoby – who was one of the top trade candidates to stay put at February’s deadline – would be easier to move and are more likely to be the subject of trade rumors this summer.

Of those two, Anunoby is the better bet to be on the move. His cap hit ($18.6MM) is less than half of Siakam’s, which simplifies salary matching, and he’s the player who can slot more easily into any team’s lineup due to his three-and-D skill set. The 25-year-old still hasn’t fully come into his own as an offensive creator, but he has made 38.4% of his three-pointers over the last four seasons and has become one of the NBA’s best, most versatile defenders, with an ability to guard point guards, centers, and anything in between.

Siakam is a talented two-way player in his own right, with a more well-rounded offensive game and impressive versatility on defense. However, he’s more ball-dominant and is quite pricey ($37.9MM), so the list of teams that could conceivably trade for him and then seamlessly incorporate him would be shorter.

Much of the trade speculation surrounding Anunoby has been centered on how many first-round picks Toronto could get back for him, but the Raptors – who don’t control their 2024 first-rounder – have no incentive to load up on draft picks and rebuild.

If Anunoby or another key player is traded, the front office’s goal will likely be to get back multiple young players who are ready to step into rotation roles. For instance, if the Pelicans pursue Anunoby, I’d expect the Raptors to show more interest in the likes of Dyson Daniels, Trey Murphy, Herbert Jones, and Jose Alvarado than in New Orleans’ collection of future first-round picks.

Toronto will certainly be open to retooling the roster, but blowing it up probably isn’t on the table this offseason.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Thaddeus Young ($7,000,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Young’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Joe Wieskamp ($1,927,896)
    • Note: Wieskamp’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Total: $8,927,896

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 13 overall ($4,469,280)
    • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
  • Total: $4,469,280

Extension-Eligible Players

  • OG Anunoby (veteran)
  • Jakob Poeltl (veteran)
  • Pascal Siakam (veteran)
  • Gary Trent Jr. (veteran)
  • Fred VanVleet (veteran)
  • Precious Achiuwa (rookie scale)
  • Malachi Flynn (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Poeltl is only eligible until June 30; Trent would only become eligible if his player option is exercised.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000

Note: The Raptors would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Indiana Pacers

May 11th, 2023 at 7:58am CST by Rory Maher

Many league observers expected the Pacers to be among the NBA’s tanking teams in 2022/23 after trading away veterans at the 2022 deadline (Domantas Sabonis, Justin Holiday, Caris LeVert) and last offseason (Malcolm Brogdon) in favor of younger players and draft picks.

Instead, Indiana was highly competitive for much of the season. Last fall, 62.8% of our readers picked the Pacers to finish under 23.5 wins – they had 24 by January 24 and wound up with 35.

For the first half of the season it looked like the Pacers were in a strong position to make the play-in tournament – they were 23-18 on January 8 after winning six of seven games. Unfortunately, rising star Tyrese Haliburton was injured against the Knicks on January 11, and the Pacers lost nine of 10 without their best player.

That stretch hurt their momentum, and while they were only a half-game out of the 10th spot as recently as March 11, the Pacers decided to rest Haliburton and Myles Turner down the stretch due to nagging injuries and to improve their lottery odds.

After winning a tiebreaker with Washington, the Pacers will enter next week’s lottery with the seventh-best odds of landing the top overall pick and a chance to draft Victor Wembanyama.

The Pacers’ Offseason Plan:

Indiana only has five free agents (including both two-way players) entering the offseason, and president of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard has already said that the team’s interest in bringing back Oshae Brissett, James Johnson and George Hill hinges on what happens during the draft and the early days of free agency.

If the Pacers renounce all of their cap holds, they’ll have about $27MM in cap room to work with to shore up their defense and rebounding, which head coach Rick Carlisle said will be a priority. In addition to their own lottery pick, the Pacers control two late first-rounders from the aforementioned trades (No. 26 via Cleveland and No. 29 via Boston).

They also have two second-rounders, though the more valuable one could move 18 spots depending on what happens in the draft lottery. If Houston picks ahead of San Antonio in the first round, the Pacers will control the No. 50 pick. If the Spurs get the higher lottery pick, Indiana would instead get No. 32.

The Pacers will certainly look to be active during the draft and free agency — Pritchard has expressed an openness to packaging the team’s plethora of draft picks to improve the roster. Haliburton said after the season that the Pacers will be aiming for the playoffs next season, and that seems reasonable – they were 28-28 in games he played this season, a solid record for a team that was prioritizing the development of its young players.

Speaking of Haliburton, the All-Star guard is eligible for a rookie scale extension, and I view him as basically a lock to receive a max deal. Both Pritchard and Carlisle have spoken glowingly about his leadership both on and off the court, calling him “the face of the franchise” and a “partner” who is likely have a say in personnel moves going forward.

Aaron Nesmith, who was acquired in the Brogdon trade, had an up-and-down first two seasons with Boston, but he had a consistent role and played much better in his first campaign with Indiana, averaging 10.1 PPG and 3.8 RPG while shooting 36.6% on three-pointers and playing solid defense in 73 games, including 60 starts (24.9 MPG). Like Haliburton, he’ll be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a deal gets done if it’s relatively team-friendly — perhaps in the $10-12MM per year range.

The other notable extension-eligible player is sharpshooter Buddy Hield, who had one of his best all-around seasons in ‘22/23, averaging 16.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.8 APG and 1.2 SPG on .458/.425/.822 shooting in 80 games (73 starts, 31.0 MPG). However, while Pritchard praised Hield’s impact both on and off the court, he was noncommittal about offering a new deal to the 30-year-old.

Of the players on guaranteed contracts, Daniel Theis’ spot on the roster is the most tenuous. He’ll be making $9.1MM in ‘23/24 and barely played at all this season – he could be included in a trade as part of salary ballast, but his value is basically nonexistent at that price point. Chris Duarte might be worth keeping an eye on too, as he struggled through injuries in his second season and was surpassed in the pecking order by rookies Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard.

Turner was involved in trade rumors for several years, including in ’22/23. But after renegotiating his contract and signing an extension, I think he’ll be staying put — he had the best season of his career and thrived alongside Haliburton.

With point guard, shooting guard and center seemingly secured for the foreseeable future, small forward and power forward will almost certainly be the Pacers’ biggest offseason targets. Nesmith is a solid role player, but he was very undersized at power forward and probably projects as more of a decent starter than a plus one.

Someone like OG Anunoby, who’s entering his age-26 season and just earned an All-Defensive nod, would be a good fit, but I’m not sure how willing the Raptors are to trade him (or if it’s worth it to go after him if their asking price is too high).

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 7 overall ($6,516,000)
    • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
  • No. 26 overall ($2,499,480)
  • No. 29 overall ($2,394,960)
  • No. 50 overall (no cap hold)
    • Note: The Pacers would instead receive the No. 32 overall pick if the Spurs end up with a higher first-round pick than the Rockets via the lottery.
  • No. 55 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $11,410,440

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Buddy Hield (veteran)
  • T.J. McConnell (veteran)
  • Daniel Theis (veteran)
  • Aaron Nesmith (rookie scale)
  • Tyrese Haliburton (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: Stephenson’s cap hold remains on the Pacers’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $7,609,000
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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Utah Jazz

May 9th, 2023 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The Jazz were supposed to bottom out in 2022/23.

They’d just traded away nearly their entire starting lineup, including All-Stars Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell and forwards Bojan Bogdanovic and Royce O’Neale. Those roster moves – and the fact that several other veterans were still on the trade block – suggested that CEO Danny Ainge, general manager Justin Zanik, and the rest of the front office were all-in on the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes.

Then the season started and Utah looked more like a powerhouse than a bottom-feeder. The Jazz won 10 of their first 13 games out of the gate and held the No. 1 spot in the Western Conference over a month into the regular season.

Utah eventually slid down the standings, as expected, but the team easily exceeded preseason expectations by winning 37 games, even after trading away starting point guard Mike Conley and other key rotation players during the season.

When the Jazz dealt Gobert and Mitchell during the 2022 offseason, the focus was on the draft assets they received, since the packages they got for their two stars were heavy on unprotected future first-rounders.

But it was Lauri Markkanen (acquired in the Mitchell deal) and Walker Kessler (part of the Gobert package) who paid big early dividends for the franchise. Markkanen earned his first All-Star berth and was named the NBA’s Most Improved Player, while Kessler finished third in Rookie of the Year voting and was fourth in the league in blocks per game (2.3) despite averaging only 23.0 MPG.

With Markkanen and Kessler under contract for multiple seasons, the Jazz have two intriguing cornerstones to build around and an opportunity to accelerate their rebuild even if they don’t have any luck in the 2023 draft lottery.

The Jazz’s Offseason Plan:

The Jazz are ninth in the lottery standings, so their odds of landing a top-three pick aren’t great (14.5%). That’s not the end of the world though. While Utah would obviously love to add one of 2023’s top prospects to its current core, the team is well positioned to continue adding talent even if that pick stays at No. 9.

For one, that lottery selection is just one of three first-rounders the Jazz own this June. They also control the Timberwolves’ pick at No. 16 and the Sixers’ at No. 28, putting them in position to either add a handful of rookies to the roster or to turn one or two of those picks into a trade asset.

The Jazz will also enter the offseason with the ability to generate significant cap space. Their guaranteed salary total of $47.6MM is a little misleading, since there could be as many as four player options to account for, along with some non-guaranteed salaries and cap holds for draft picks. But if we assume Talen Horton-Tucker, Rudy Gay, and Damian Jones all opt in, Kelly Olynyk and Kris Dunn are retained, and Utah keeps all three of its first-rounders, there could still be in excess of $42MM in cap room.

The big question will be at what pace the Jazz want to proceed as they build their roster. Ainge and Zanik are smart enough to recognize that just because the team won 37 games in 2022/23, that doesn’t mean that number will continue to rise as long as the front office makes an upgrade or two to the roster. Growth isn’t necessarily linear and a similar group could just as easily take a step back next season.

In theory, Utah is in a strong position to use its projected cap room to sign one impact player and to package its trade assets (including five future unprotected first-round picks from Minnesota and Cleveland) for a second impact player.

But after going into sell mode last offseason, I don’t expect the Jazz to do a 180 and essentially pull off the inverse of those Gobert and Mitchell trades this summer. The club seems more likely to exercise patience in building its new-look roster, despite last season’s success.

That means Utah’s cap room might be best used to accommodate salary dumps. With a more punitive new CBA taking effect in 2023/24, there will be teams around the NBA looking to move off unwanted money. The Jazz could capitalize on their cap flexibility by lessening the financial burden for one or two of those teams and acquire more draft picks in the process.

Assuming the front office takes the long view, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them trade one of their three 2023 first-rounders for a pick or two in a future year. That would allow the Jazz to continue building up their collection of future draft assets and to avoid bringing three first-round picks to camp this fall.

The team will also have to decide whether or not Jordan Clarkson is in its long-term plans. A Sixth Man of the Year winner during his time in Utah, Clarkson has proven to be an effective scorer for the Jazz and was a good value on his four-year, $52MM contract, but will likely turn down his $14.3MM player option in search of a more lucrative deal.

The Jazz have the financial flexibility necessary to accommodate Clarkson, but re-signing him could cut their cap room nearly in half, and Ainge has spent the last year moving off virtually every other veteran on the roster — perhaps Clarkson will be next.

The 2022/23 season showed that the Jazz probably won’t need to spend several years mired in a long rebuilding process, but they’re not on a fast-track to contention yet. The next steps are crucial and will help determine just how quickly Utah can move past its roster teardown and reclaim its place as an annual playoff team in the West.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Kelly Olynyk ($9,195,122)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Olynyk’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 28.
  • Kris Dunn ($2,586,665)
    • Note: Dunn’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before October 23.
  • Luka Samanic ($2,066,585)
    • Note: Samanic would receive a partial guarantee ($400K) if he’s not waived on or before July 18. That partial guarantee would increase to $600K if he’s not waived on or before October 23.
  • Vernon Carey Jr. ($1,997,238)
    • Note: Carey’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before October 23.
  • Total: $15,845,610

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 9 overall ($5,487,120)
    • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
  • No. 16 overall ($3,831,960)
  • No. 28 overall ($2,412,240)
  • Total: $11,731,320

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Jordan Clarkson (veteran)
  • Rudy Gay (veteran)
  • Talen Horton-Tucker (veteran)
  • Lauri Markkanen (veteran)
  • Kelly Olynyk (veteran)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Gay and Horton-Tucker would only become eligible if their player options are exercised.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: Whiteside’s cap hold remains on the Jazz’s books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $7,609,000
  • Trade exception: $9,614,379
    • Note: Expires on July 6.
  • Trade exception: $6,745,122
    • Note: Expires on September 22.
  • Trade exception: $5,009,633
  • Trade exception: $4,374,000
  • Trade exception: $2,740,000
    • Note: Expires on August 25.
  • Trade exception: $202,202
    • Note: Expires on June 30.
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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Charlotte Hornets

May 8th, 2023 at 2:23pm CST by Rory Maher

The Hornets have missed out on the playoffs for seven straight seasons. They don’t exactly have a great track record of success – they’ve only recorded 50-plus wins three times in 33 seasons and made the postseason a total of 10 times. None of those 50-win seasons and just three of their playoff berths have come in the last 19 years since they rejoined the NBA as an expansion team.

After going 23-42 in 2019/20, it seemed like Charlotte was on an upward trajectory — the team increased its win total by 10 in both ’20/21 (33-39) and ’21/22 (43-39). However, the Hornets were blown out as the No. 10 seed in the play-in tournament in ’21 and ’22, which led to former head coach James Borrego getting fired.

Unfortunately, the Hornets took a major step back this season from a win/loss perspective, going 27-55. Injuries to players up and down the roster certainly played a part in that decline, with only P.J. Washington playing 70 or more games (73). Off-court problems were another factor, as Miles Bridges missed the entire season after being arrested for felony domestic violence charges, later pleading no contest.

Even when relatively healthy though, the Hornets didn’t perform up to expectations. They had the worst offensive rating in the league by a pretty significant margin, struggling to score from all over the court.

Having said that, I don’t think the future is as gloomy as it might appear on the surface. In addition to having a 12.5% chance at the top overall draft pick, the Hornets have four other selections in the 27-42 range, giving them some interesting short-term options to improve.

The Hornets’ Offseason Plan:

If the Hornets choose to not bring back any of their players on non-guaranteed deals and renounce all of their free agents and other cap holds (besides their first-round picks), they could operate as a below-the-cap team and have more than $30MM in room to go after free agents. However, the odds of that happening are extremely remote.

President of basketball operations Mitch Kupchak already stated Charlotte doesn’t plan to be a major player in free agency and will instead look to retain its own free agents and add talent through the draft. That makes sense, both from a financial and team-building perspective.

Not only are the Hornets’ own free agents likely better than the players they could add with that theoretical cap room, but operating as an over-the-cap team also gives them access to the full mid-level exception ($12.2MM) and the bi-annual exception ($4.5MM). If they went the other route, they’d only have the $7.6MM room exception to fill out the roster (on top of their cap space).

Re-signing Bridges probably won’t be a popular choice, but it has seemed inevitable for a long time. He was set to be one of the top players on the market last summer but was arrested mere days before an enormous payday.

The Hornets never withdrew his qualifying offer, so he’ll be a restricted free agent again in 2023 as long as the team reissues that QO this summer. It’s hard to say how much he’ll get paid on his next contract given everything that’s happened — I still think he’s likely to get something in the $25MM+ per year range, but it probably won’t approach a max like it may have last offseason.

Washington is the other key restricted free agent for Charlotte. His next contract might be less lucrative than Bridges’, but I think the Hornets will match any offer sheet up to around $20MM per year. They’d certainly prefer to pay him less than that though, perhaps in the range of $14-16MM annually – I would bet on Washington’s agents looking for more money from a rival team if that’s as high as Charlotte goes. It will be interesting to see how his situation plays out.

The team’s unrestricted free agents include Kelly Oubre, Svi Mykhailiuk and Dennis Smith Jr. Both Oubre (multiple times) and Smith have spoken about wanting to remain with the Hornets, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they return, but that might depend on how the draft goes.

Oubre made $12.6MM in ‘22/23 and I think he’ll probably get something in the ballpark of that figure on annual basis this summer, perhaps on a two- or three-year deal. I don’t expect Smith to have a robust market due to his scoring struggles, but he has become a much better decision-maker and an outstanding point-of-attack defender. They Hornets will have his Non-Bird rights if they want to give him a modest raise on his minimum-salary deal — otherwise they’ll have to use one of the aforementioned exceptions to give him a bit more money.

Giving LaMelo Ball a rookie scale extension is probably a mere formality. The former All-Star dealt with multiple ankle injuries in ‘22/23, but I still think he’s likely going to get a max contract.

My expectation is the Hornets will be involved in at least a couple of trades this offseason. If they keep all of their players on guaranteed contracts, re-sign Bridges, Washington, Oubre and Smith, and keep JT Thor’s non-guaranteed deal, they’d have 16 players under standard contracts if you include their two first-round picks. That’s one more than permitted.

They’ll also have three second-rounders ranging from No. 34-42. They could package those to try to move up in the first round, but Kupchak has had some nice second-round finds since he’s been in charge, so I’m not sure that’s likely. Even with the addition of a third two-way slot, the Hornets will still have a roster crunch, so look for some trade activity.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 4 overall ($8,678,400)
    • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
  • No. 27 overall ($2,427,360)
  • No. 34 overall (no cap hold)
  • No. 39 overall (no cap hold)
  • No. 42 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $11,105,760

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Gordon Hayward (veteran)
  • JT Thor (veteran)
  • LaMelo Ball (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Thomas, Kulboka, and Lewis remain on the Hornets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $1,930,681
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