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Atlantic Notes: Harris, G. Williams, Sixers, Barton, VanVleet

March 2nd, 2023 at 7:31am CST by Luke Adams

Nets sharpshooter Joe Harris entered this season having started almost every game he had played since 2018/19 and having averaged 30 or more minutes per night in four consecutive seasons. However, he finds himself coming off the bench in Brooklyn and is logging just 23.0 minutes per night on the season — that number has dipped to 13.6 MPG since the trade deadline.

Harris, who missed most of last season due to ankle issues, isn’t pushing back against his role reduction, as Andrew Crane of The New York Post writes. In fact, the 31-year-old is exhibiting an admirable level of self-awareness about his own limitations, suggesting he’s evolving into more of a “second-unit sort of player” and admitting that he’s not recovering as quickly from minor injuries as he did when he was younger.

“I just am not the same player that I was two, three years ago. It’s not to say that I’m less of a player,” Harris said, adding that he believes he can still be a contributor on a good team. “But I just have to kind of evolve and figure it out.”

Here’s more from around the Atlantic:

  • Celtics forward Grant Williams received his first DNP-CD of the season on Wednesday in a four-point win over Cleveland. Asked after the game why Williams didn’t play at all, head coach Joe Mazzulla simply replied, “Matchups” (Twitter link via Jared Weiss of The Athletic). Williams is in a contract year and will be eligible for restricted free agency this summer.
  • Sixers head coach Doc Rivers confirmed on Wednesday that Philadelphia had interest in Kevin Love before the veteran forward signed with the Heat. “We tried to get him too. I know it was us and Miami, probably one other team,” Rivers said (Twitter link via Rich Hofmann of The Athletic). “He’s just a solid player. More importantly, if it hadn’t worked here, if he hadn’t played well, you still want him in the locker room.”
  • Raptors assistant coach Earl Watson, who played with Will Barton in Portland in 2013/14, was a factor in Barton’s decision to sign with Toronto, per Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca. “Me and Earl have a very strong relationship,” Barton said on Wednesday. “So, I trust him a lot.”
  • Raptors point guard Fred VanVleet made just 1-of-11 shots in his return to the lineup on Tuesday. However, he didn’t turn the ball over and helped jump-start the team’s outside shooting with his knack for making the right pass, according to Eric Koreen of The Athletic, who argues that VanVleet’s impact even on an off night shows why Toronto needs to prioritize re-signing him this offseason.
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Checking In On RFAs-To-Be Who Have Met Starter Criteria

February 26th, 2023 at 10:49am CST by Luke Adams

As we explain in a glossary entry, a player who is eligible for restricted free agency at the end of a given season can have the value of his qualifying offer adjusted depending on whether or not he meets the “starter criteria.”

A player is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency.

If a top-14 pick doesn’t meet the starter criteria, he has the value of his qualifying offer adjusted downward and receives a QO equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would get if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.

A player drafted at No. 10  or later can increase the value of his qualifying offer by meeting the starter criteria.

Players drafted between 10th and 30th who meet the starter criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale, while second-round picks or undrafted free agents who meet the criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.

In simplified terms, here’s how those rules will apply in 2022/23:

  • A top-14 pick who falls short of the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $7,744,600.
  • A player picked between No. 10 and No. 30 who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $8,486,620.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted free agent who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $5,216,324.

A qualifying offer is essentially a one-year contract offer that functions as a placeholder if the player doesn’t accept it. If a player is considered a good bet to sign a lucrative long-term contract, a slight adjustment to his qualifying offer generally has no material impact on his free agency.

However, a change in a qualifying offer can sometimes be a difference maker. The best recent example of this came in 2020, when then-Bulls guard Kris Dunn met the starter criteria, ensuring that his qualifying offer would be worth $7,091,457 instead of $4,642,800.

The Bulls opted not to extend that $7MM+ QO, making him an unrestricted free agent, and he ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with Atlanta. If Dunn hadn’t met the starter criteria, it’s possible Chicago would’ve been more comfortable issuing a $4.6MM qualifying offer, which would’ve significantly changed the way Dunn’s free agency played out.

So far in 2022/23, three players have met the starter criteria:

Washington was the 12th overall pick in 2019 and will therefore have his qualifying offer bumped up to $8,486,620.

As second-round picks in 2020 and 2021, respectively, Jones and Dosunmu will now have QOs worth $5,216,324.

Here are some more players eligible for restricted free agency this summer whose qualifying offers can – or will – be impacted by the starter criteria:

(* Player has a team option for 2023/24)

White, Hayes, Hachimura, and Langford have no realistic path to meeting the starter criteria this season, so if their teams want to make them restricted free agents this summer, the qualifying offer cost will be $7,744,600. Johnson could join them in that group, though he has started 20 games so far this season and Brooklyn still has 23 contests left, so he still has a shot to make 41 starts as long as he stays healthy and the Nets don’t move him to the bench.

Thybulle and Williams are the only two non-lottery first-round picks who will be RFA-eligible later this year and still have a chance to meet the starter criteria, bumping their QOs to $8,486,620.

It’s probably a long shot for Thybulle, who has made 59 starts since the beginning of 2021/22 — the Trail Blazers only have 23 games remaining, so Thybulle would have to start every single one of them to get to 82 total starts (an average of 41) over the last two seasons.

Williams has a clearer path to get there. He has logged 1,651 minutes so far this season, averaging 27.5 per game. The Celtics play 21 more times this season and Williams would have to play 349 more minutes (16.6 per night) to reach the 2,000-minute threshold. That seems likely as long as he stays off the injured list.

Jones, Martin, and Marshall belong in a different group. All three players have team options on their contracts for 2023/24, so their clubs could simply exercise those options and not have to worry about restricted free agency this year. That’s absolutely what will happen in Jones’ case, since he’ll still be RFA-eligible in 2024.

Martin and Marshall, however, would be on track for unrestricted free agency in 2024 if their team options for next season are picked up — the Rockets and Pelicans could decide to decline this options this summer and negotiate with their players as restricted free agents instead, giving them more control over the process. Houston took this route last summer with Jae’Sean Tate.

With that in mind, it’s worth keeping an eye on whether Martin and/or Marshall will reach the starter criteria and bump their potential QOs to $5,216,324 (from approximately $2.3MM). Martin, who has been in the Rockets’ starting five since mid-January, would need to start 15 of the team’s last 23 games to get there. It’s a more difficult path for Marshall, who would need to average 29.6 minutes per game in the Pelicans’ final 21 contests to get to 2,000 minutes on the season.

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And-Ones: NBPA, Dooling, A. Anderson, Officiating, Elam Ending

February 19th, 2023 at 12:51pm CST by Luke Adams

Celtics forward Grant Williams, formerly a vice president for the National Basketball Players Association, has been elected as the first vice president of the players’ union, per a press release. Williams will take over that role from Andre Iguodala, whose four-year term has expired following his election in 2019.

Since Williams was promoted to first vice president and Kyrie Irving‘s term as an NBPA vice president expired, two new VPs were elected to the union’s executive committee — those new vice presidents are Grizzlies big man Jaren Jackson Jr. and Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell, who will serve three-year terms.

“We are thrilled to have Grant in this elevated position, and we welcome Jaren and Donovan to the executive committee,” NBPA president CJ McCollum said in a statement. “Their experience and ability to connect with the younger players in our league will be imperative as we move forward as a union. I also want to take a moment to thank Andre and Kyrie for their service. Kyrie’s insights have been invaluable since he joined us in 2020, and Andre has been been a key leader for us for more than a decade. Their leadership will be missed but we know they will stay close and continue to support us as we work for the best interests of the brotherhood.”

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

  • Former NBA players Keyon Dooling and Alan Anderson have received prison sentences of 30 months and 24 months, respectively, for their roles in defrauding the NBA’s health and welfare plan, according to Steve Gardner of USA Today. Anderson was one of 18 players originally arrested in 2021 for making fraudulent claims, while Dooling – a former NBPA vice president who was most recently an assistant coach with the Jazz – later had his name added to the criminal case.
  • Before holding his annual All-Star news conference on Saturday, NBA commissioner Adam Silver also appeared on ESPN’s SportsCenter this week to discuss concerns about load management and officiating, among other topics (YouTube video link). Silver stated that the NBA is exploring ways to use technology to automate certain calls (ie. who last touched an out-of-bounds ball) so that referees can focus more on the more subjective calls they’re required to make (ie. fouls).
  • Tim Bontemps of ESPN takes a deep dive into the “Elam Ending,” exploring how Nick Elam first came up with the concept and detailing the path it took to being adopted in the NBA’s All-Star Game (as well as the G League’s overtime period).
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Atlantic Notes: Simmons, Harden, Williams, Nurse

February 14th, 2023 at 5:30pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Nets coach Jacque Vaughn admits he’s not quite sure how to play Ben Simmons with the major changes made to the team’s roster the past two weeks, Brian Lewis of the New York Post writes. Simmons has logged just 16 and 13 minutes in the team’s past two games.

“It’s gonna be some work that we have to do, because you just take a look at what the lineups could potentially look like,” the Nets coach said. “You put another big next to Ben, then you’ve gotta figure out what the spacing is around him. Then if you put another playmaker next to Ben, then you’ve gotta figure out what Ben looks like without the basketball. Then if you go small with Ben, then you’ve gotta figure out can you rebound enough with him. So the challenges are ahead of us. We’ll look them head on. We’ll figure it out.”

We have more from the Atlantic Division:

  • Sixers guard James Harden has chosen new representation, Shams Charania of The Athletic reports. He will be represented by Troy Payne, a former Adidas executive who is partnering with agents Mike Silverman and Brandon Grier. Payne, Silverman and Grier are now the agents for Harden, who signed a two-year contract with the 76ers last offseason but holds a player option on his $35.64MM salary for next season. Harden declined his $47.4MM player option last summer.
  • The Celtics chose not to trade Grant Williams but various teams are monitoring the situation and curious about his future there, Marc Stein writes in a Substack post. Williams will be a restricted free agent this summer and may seek a contract similar to what Keldon Johnson received from the Spurs (four years and $74MM, plus incentives).
  • Nick Nurse is back with the Raptors and will coach them against Orlando tonight, Josh Lewenberg of TSN Sports tweets. Nurse missed Sunday’s game against Detroit due to personal reasons.
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Scotto’s Latest: McDaniels, Hornets, G. Williams, Nuggets

February 11th, 2023 at 12:02pm CST by Luke Adams

Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels drew significant trade interest around the NBA ahead of Thursday’s deadline, according to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype, who reports that about half of the league’s teams reached out to express interest in the 22-year-old.

However, after keeping him out of the Rudy Gobert blockbuster last summer, the Timberwolves continued to turn away inquiries on McDaniels. The front office views the third-year forward, who becomes extension-eligible during the coming offseason, as a member of the team’s core, Scotto writes.

McDaniels’ brother Jalen McDaniels was on the move this week, as the Hornets sent him to the Sixers in a four-team deal that also involved New York and Portland. According to Scotto, Charlotte was anticipating a strong free agent market for Jalen this offseason and was concerned about being outbid for the 25-year-old, who will be an unrestricted free agent.

After trading for him at the deadline, the Sixers are hoping to use their Bird rights on the older McDaniels brother to retain him, but they’ll face competition. League sources tell HoopsHype that the Jazz, Pacers, and Spurs are among the clubs expected to show interest in McDaniels in the summer.

Here’s more from Scotto:

  • With McDaniels no longer on the roster, the Hornets are prioritizing re-signing P.J. Washington this summer, as well as potentially negotiating a new deal with Miles Bridges, says Scotto.
  • The Celtics turned away multiple teams who expressed interest in trading for forward Grant Williams, Scotto reports. Clubs were interested in acquiring Williams ahead of his restricted free agency to secure his Bird rights, Scotto writes, adding that some executives around the NBA believe Boston will be hesitant to match an offer sheet exceeding $15MM+ per year for the forward this summer. The C’s never offered more than $50MM in guaranteed money over four years last fall when the two sides discussed an extension, Scotto notes.
  • Before sending him to the Clippers, the Nuggets discussed possible deals involving Bones Hyland with the Hornets (Jalen McDaniels), Timberwolves (Taurean Prince), and Knicks (Cam Reddish), according to Scotto.
  • In case you missed it, Scotto’s latest story for HoopsHype also included an interesting item on the Grizzlies’ offer for Mikal Bridges and some info on potential suitors for veteran wing Terrence Ross.
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Central Notes: Cavs, O’Neale, Crowder, Wiseman, Noel, Pacers

February 10th, 2023 at 11:21am CST by Luke Adams

Cavaliers president of basketball operations Koby Altman has made 14 in-season trades since taking the reins in Cleveland’s front office in 2017, but he had an uncharacteristically quiet deadline this season. As Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com writes, the Cavs are one of just two teams (along with Chicago) that hasn’t made a trade since the 2022/23 season got underway.

“We just didn’t feel like anything was going to really move the needle for us,” Altman said on Thursday. “Scoured the market and talked to every team I could. We could have made a move that was lateral, multiple moves that were lateral, that I didn’t think appreciably made us better. I really wanted to see what this group looked like together, fully healthy, and the potential of this group, which we’ve seen right in front of our eyes, continue to grow.”

Royce O’Neale, Dorian Finney-Smith, Cameron Johnson, Grant Williams, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Bojan Bogdanovic were among the top targets on the Cavaliers’ wish list, according to Fedor, but the team either didn’t have the assets to acquire those players or deemed the asking prices too high.

Sources tell Fedor that the Cavs made a strong push for O’Neale and tried to line up other deals to get the Nets the sort of assets they wanted, but Brooklyn – which was seeking more than a first-round pick – didn’t bite.

“I think there’s value in continuity,” Altman said. “I think there’s value in giving this group a runway. Sometimes you just say to yourself, ‘Don’t mess this up.’ I think that was a big key for us this deadline. It was not easy for me. We’re the fifth-best team in the NBA right now — 35 wins, which is the fourth-most in the NBA — and some really good numbers to back up what I think you guys see on the court every day. I didn’t see anything that was going to put us over the top.”

Here’s more from around the Central:

  • Jim Owczarski of The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (subscription required) explores what Jae Crowder can bring to the Bucks and contends that hanging onto Grayson Allen through the trade deadline was a win for the team, since he’s having a strong two-way season.
  • Adding former No. 2 overall pick James Wiseman to an already crowded frontcourt in a trade that sent out Saddiq Bey may be Pistons general manager Troy Weaver‘s biggest gamble yet, argues Omari Sankofa II of The Detroit Free Press (subscription required). James L. Edwards III of The Athletic spoke to colleague Anthony Slater about what to expect from Wiseman in Detroit, with Slater noting that the young center still has a ways to go on the defensive end.
  • After not being included in a deadline deal, Pistons center Nerlens Noel has been listed as “not with team” on the club’s injury report, Edwards notes (via Twitter). Noel isn’t owed any guaranteed money beyond this season and finds himself buried even further down the depth chart following Wiseman’s arrival, so he could be a buyout candidate.
  • The Pacers‘ relative inactivity at the trade deadline reflected president of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard‘s desire not to shake up his core or disrupt the chemistry that the current roster has built, says Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star (subscription required). As Dopirak observes, Indiana’s lone deadline deal was primarily about using their remaining cap room to add more draft assets, but it will also give the team to take a low-risk look at young wing Jordan Nwora.
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Deveney’s Latest: Lowry, D. Robinson, Crowder, Okoro, G. Williams, Warriors

February 8th, 2023 at 6:21pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Heat haven’t been able to find a taker for Kyle Lowry and may not be able to work out a significant deal before the deadline, writes Sean Deveney of Heavy. Sources tell Deveney that Miami had Lowry trade offers rejected by the Nets, Mavericks and Timberwolves and wasn’t able to generate much traction with any other team.

Lowry’s age (36) and contract (fully guaranteed at $29.68MM next season) have been major impediments to finding a trade partner. In addition, he has been limited to 44 games because of injuries, including a current bout with left knee soreness that could sideline him through the All-Star break.

The Heat also haven’t found much of a market for Duncan Robinson, who is under contract for $57MM over the next three years, although the last season isn’t fully guaranteed. Robinson has seen his playing time reduced this season and underwent finger surgery in January. Deveney suggests Miami will need to attach a future first-round pick and a young player to trade Lowry or Robinson, and he notes that some teams have expressed interest in rookie Nikola Jovic and Max Strus.

“They thought they were going to have more assets at this point, that Robinson might be playing better, that (Victor) Oladipo would be better, that Omer (Yurtseven) would be better, that Strus would be better, that Lowry would have value,” an NBA executive told Deveney. “That is why they were confident they would make a move. But they missed on pretty much all of those bets, and it is going to be hard to pull something off.”

Deveney passes along a few more rumors:

  • The Suns appear willing to accept Caleb Martin from the Heat in exchange for Jae Crowder, but Miami is reluctant to part with Martin, who is 27 and has an affordable contract. Sources tell Deveney that Phoenix is talking to several other teams about Crowder, including the Nets.
  • The Cavaliers likely won’t deal for another wing if the cost is Isaac Okoro, according to Deveney, who notes that Cleveland has discussed Josh Hart with the Trail Blazers, Bojan Bogdanovic with the Pistons and Malik Beasley with the Jazz.
  • The Celtics aren’t exploring Grant Williams trades before the deadline, Deveney adds. Although Williams will be a free agent this summer after not reaching a contract extension, Boston prefers to hold onto him at his current bargain price of $4.3MM and may consider a sign-and-trade in the offseason.
  • The Warriors are listening to offers for Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody and James Wiseman, but Deveney hears that their trade value may have decreased from a lack of playing time.
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Atlantic Rumors: Durant, Nets, Raptors, Claxton, Celtics, Sixers

February 7th, 2023 at 10:08am CST by Luke Adams

Now that Kyrie Irving has been dealt, Kevin Durant find himself under the spotlight once again as league observers wait to see if the Nets forward will resubmit the trade request he made last summer.

Asked on Monday about that possibility, head coach Jacque Vaughn said that’s not something he has talked to Durant about and he doesn’t plan to do so. In Vaughn’s view, as long as the Nets can continue to show they’re capable of competing with the best teams in the East, there’s no reason for Durant to seek a change of scenery.

“At the end of the day, Kevin wants to win,” Vaughn said on Monday, per Brian Lewis of The New York Post. “That’s always been our goal. He wants to win at shootaround, he wants to win any game of the week. That’s why he loves to play and that’s why he wants to play 82 games. That will be our holy grail. We’ll continue to try to put a group out that wins and until there’s something for me to be concerned about, then I’ll carry on business as usual.”

While the Nets added two solid role players in their Irving trade, their championship upside probably took a hit as a result of that deal, so the team has been exploring further roster upgrades, as we detailed on Monday. According to Ian Begley of SNY.tv, before trading Irving, the Nets had also remained in touch with the Hawks about John Collins and had spoken to multiple teams about Joe Harris and Patty Mills.

Although it’s possible Durant could push for a change of scenery again, most people around the NBA don’t expect that to happen this week, ESPN’s Zach Lowe said in a podcast with colleague Brian Windhorst (YouTube link), especially since the Nets’ additions of Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith signaled a desire to continue building a roster around Durant that’s capable of contending — Finney-Smith is a player KD likes and wanted Brooklyn to acquire if the team made a deal with Dallas, Lowe stated.

Here’s more from around the Atlantic:

  • Following up on reports suggesting that the Nets were talking to the Raptors about Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Fred VanVleet, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype says Toronto “covets” Brooklyn center Nic Claxton, having also attempted to acquire him at least season’s trade deadline. Ben Simmons and multiple first-round picks have also come up in the Nets’ trade discussions with the Raptors, Scotto adds.
  • The Athletic’s Jared Weiss and Jay King take a look at what could be on tap for the Celtics at the trade deadline, considering whether it’s realistic to expect them to make a play for Durant and noting that a deal for a center remains the team’s most likely move. Weiss and King also examine Grant Williams‘ up-and-down play and conclude it still doesn’t make sense for Boston to trade him, despite a report from Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer stating that teams are inquiring on Williams.
  • While Daryl Morey is always a good bet to make some sort of move at the trade deadline, the Sixers president of basketball operations tells Kyle Neubeck of PhillyVoice that he’s not expecting to make a huge splash this week. “I think it’s very unlikely we’re involved in anything big,” Morey said. “It could easily be that we continue to just develop chemistry and then have the group we have. I and (general manager) Elton (Brand) and everyone feels a responsibility in an important year like this to see if we can find anyone who can upgrade the team.”
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Cavs Rumors: Small Forward, Reddish, Hart, G. Williams, LeVert, Love

February 7th, 2023 at 7:43am CST by Luke Adams

Although the Cavaliers remain on the lookout for an upgrade on the wing, there’s a “growing sense” that they don’t love the options available to them on the trade market and would be comfortable standing pat if no deal comes to fruition, writes Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com (subscriber link).

Isaac Okoro has been impressive since becoming the full-time starter at small forward, averaging 9.2 points per game with a .500 3PT% in his last 18 games. Given how strong a defender Okoro is, he may be the Cavaliers’ best option at that spot even if his offensive game doesn’t continue to develop, according to Fedor.

Still, Fedor runs through several of the options available to Cleveland, identifying Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr., Doug McDermott, Luke Kennard, Royce O’Neale, and Hamidou Diallo as some potential players of interest, though most of them come with some caveats.

Sources tell Cleveland.com that there are mixed feelings within the Cavaliers’ front office about Knicks forward Cam Reddish, who is considered more of a fall-back option. Reddish has talent and untapped potential, but he’ll be a free agent in a matter of months and isn’t a clear upgrade on what the team already has at small forward, Fedor explains.

Fedor adds that Trail Blazers forward Josh Hart is one player who is high on the Cavaliers’ list of targets, writing that he has “plenty of fans” within the organization and that Cleveland explored a possible sign-and-trade for him two years ago before pivoting to Lauri Markkanen.

There’s a belief around the NBA that Hart will be on the move this week, according to Fedor, who notes that the Blazer has a similar skill set to Okoro but would bring a level of experience and consistency that the former No. 5 overall pick lacks.

Here’s more on the Cavs:

  • Sources tell Cleveland.com that the Cavaliers checked in with the Celtics about forward Grant Williams, but got the sense that he’s unavailable — or would at least cost much more than the Cavs are in position to offer.
  • Veteran wing Caris LeVert tells Fedor that he expects to remain a Cavalier through Thursday’s trade deadline. If LeVert does stick around, Cleveland would be interested in signing him beyond this season, assuming the price isn’t exorbitant, Fedor writes.
  • Although there’s no indication that he’s on the trade block, it’s worth noting that veteran forward Kevin Love has fallen out of the Cavs’ rotation as of late to make room for Dean Wade. Love, who hasn’t played since January 24, had a conversation about his role with head coach J.B. Bickerstaff, tweets Fedor.
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Free Agent Stock Watch: Atlantic Division

January 13th, 2023 at 3:10pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Atlantic players.

Fred VanVleet, G, Raptors

  • 2022/23: $21,250,000
  • 2023/24: $22,824,074 player option
  • Stock: Down

VanVleet was a deserving first-time All-Star last season, averaging 21.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 1.6 steals on .419/.401/.874 (.572 true) shooting through 50 games. However, he struggled mightily after the break due to a lingering bone bruise in his right knee, appearing in just 15 games with averages of 16.0 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 1.9 steals on .343/.291/.872 (.479 true) shooting. He was clearly hampered in the playoffs as well, posting similar shooting percentages.

In the offseason, he and the Raptors discussed a four-year, $114MM extension – the maximum amount they can offer based on his current contract. VanVleet felt he had outplayed his four-year, $85MM deal to that point, so he wanted to wait and see if he could get a more lucrative contract in 2023.

I definitely understand why VanVleet bet on himself. The former undrafted free agent has turned himself into a very good player through his hard work, tenacity and determination. He was also a major part of the Toronto’s title-winning team in 2019.

Unfortunately, things haven’t gone according VanVleet’s plan thus far in 2022/23. A significant portion of his offensive game is tied to his ability to space the floor, but he’s shooting just 32.9% from three, compared to his 37.5% career mark.

VanVleet turns 29 next month, is undersized, has played a ton of minutes the past few years, his point-of-attack defense isn’t what it once was, and he missed an average of just over 18 regular season games from 2018-22. VanVleet’s leadership and competitiveness are unquestioned, but there are a lot of red flags for potential suitors if he declines his player option, which seems likely.

T.J. Warren, F, Nets

  • 2022/23: $2,628,597
  • 2023/24: UFA
  • Stock: Up

Warren is another player with an injury history, having appeared in just four games in the two seasons leading up to ‘22/23. While the length of those absences was abnormal, the 29-year-old has never appeared in more than 67 games in a season, averaging just under 55 games in his first six years, so durability has always been a concern.

As a free agent last summer, Warren wound up signing a “prove it” deal with the Nets for the veteran’s minimum, and it took him a while to return to action — he made his season debut on December 2. However, he has only missed one game since (the second of a back-to-back), and his production hasn’t disappointed.

Warren has always been a mid-range sniper, and this season is no different – he’s shooting 52% on those looks, which ranks in the 93rd percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.com. Through 17 games, he’s averaging 10.5 points, 3.1 rebounds and 1.4 assists on .532/.353/.889 shooting in 20.4 minutes per contest.

As long as Warren stays healthy, there’s a very good chance he’ll get a big raise in free agency — his ability to score from all over the court is the most valuable trait in basketball.

Grant Williams, F, Celtics

  • 2022/23: $4,306,281
  • 2023/24: RFA
  • Stock: Up

Williams and the Celtics couldn’t agree on a rookie scale extension prior to the season, with the 24-year-old reportedly looking for more money than the cost-conscious Celtics were willing to offer. Betting on himself in restricted free agency has been a worthwhile gamble for Williams so far.

Although his averages of 9.0 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game are all career highs, those numbers don’t jump at you. But he’s a solid defender across the three frontcourt positions and is highly efficient, posting a .504/.404/.859 (.659 true) shooting line through 42 games (16 starts, 28.0 MPG).

If he maintains his top-tier efficiency, Williams might get more than he was reportedly seeking before the season, which was in the $14-16MM range annually.

Derrick Rose, G, Knicks

  • 2022/23: $14,520,730
  • 2023/24: $15,596,339 team option
  • Stock: Down

The former league MVP has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, but he’s actually been relatively healthy in ’22/23. The problem is, he just hasn’t been effective on the court, averaging career lows in minutes (12.9), points (5.8) and FG% (.394) through 26 games.

Long a favorite of head coach Tom Thibodeau, Rose has fallen out of the Knicks’ rotation. His $14.5MM contract has negative value on the trade market, and his team option for ’23/24 is essentially a lock to be declined at this point.

Unless there’s a dramatic turnaround, the 34-year-old is probably looking at a veteran’s minimum deal in the offseason. Considering his age and injury history, even that might not be a given.

Shake Milton, G, Sixers

  • 2022/23: $1,997,718
  • 2023/24: UFA
  • Stock: Up

Milton is an interesting player. He’s a subpar defender who isn’t a great athlete by NBA standards, but he finds effective ways to work around those limitations.

He impressed as a fill-in starter when Tyrese Maxey and James Harden were injured, averaging 20.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 6.1 assists on .542/.425/.967 (.652 true) shooting in nine games (38.0 minutes). While those shooting percentages are an anomaly, given his career averages (.457/.361/.822 splits, including .557 true), Milton is a patient and crafty pick-and-roll play-maker who has plus size (6’5″, 205 pounds) for a combo guard.

The former 54th overall pick initially signed a two-way deal and then was converted to a standard four-year, $7MM contract back in 2019. He’s only 26 years old, and has certainly outperformed his current deal. Something in the $5-8MM per year range seems within reach.

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