Hoops Rumors Weekly Mailbag 3/8/15-3/13/15
In addition to our weekly chat, which Chuck Myron facilitates every Wednesday, we have added a second opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap, or the NBA draft? Drop me a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com or @EddieScarito on Twitter. Now for this week’s inquiries:
“Can you see the Knicks trading their lottery pick (after the draft) to Sacramento for DeMarcus Cousins since the Kings didn’t rule out trading him at the deadline?” — Rodney M.
I honestly don’t see the Kings parting ways with Cousins, who is one of the most talented big men in the league, unless a schism develops between him and coach George Karl that is deemed irreparable. But if given the chance, that’s a deal that Knicks president Phil Jackson should take immediately. Normally, I’m a big proponent of building teams through the draft, but the Knicks’ situation is a complicated one.
I wasn’t a fan of the Knicks re-signing Carmelo Anthony, and I still believe that New York would have been better served to work out a sign-and-trade for ‘Melo instead of tethering all its hopes to an aging, one-dimensional scorer. But the team is stuck with Anthony for the next few seasons, and to get the most out of team owner James Dolan’s investment in the forward, the Knicks need to acquire talent who can help them win immediately. There isn’t a player in this year’s draft, save for perhaps Willie Cauley-Stein of Kentucky, who could step in from day one and be a solid contributor. But he’s not top three pick material, which is where the Knicks will likely be selecting come June.
So if I’m the Knicks, I would explore all of my options with the pick, including trading it. Though the Kings are unlikely to bite and give up on Cousins without seeing what he can be under Karl’s tutelage. I certainly wouldn’t given his talent level.
“Where do you see JaVale McGee ending up?” — Quincy
The easy answer to this question is that he’ll go to the first team to offer him a player option for 2015/16. McGee doesn’t strike me as being picky at this point. He absolutely needs to catch on somewhere and rehabilitate his rep and value before the end of the season. His next contract hangs in the balance. There are a number of contenders who could absolutely use McGee’s skills on the court, but very few of those franchises likely want to deal with him off of the hardwood, where he has a reputation for being immature and difficult.
But not to cheat you on providing an answer, I would say that he’ll most likely end up in Texas with the Mavs or the Rockets. Both teams are willing to gamble on players with questionable maturity, and both could benefit from more depth in the middle.
“Do you see a chance that any player other than Jahlil Okafor becomes the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft?” — Stephen R.
Is there a chance? Absolutely. In fact, Okafor’s hold on the top pick is becoming more tenuous as the NCAA season wears on. It’s not because Okafor has disappointed, because he’s been exceptional for Duke this season. It’s more about potential. Okafor isn’t an elite athlete, nor a good defender for his size, which will limit his overall ceiling somewhat. He’ll be a fixture in the middle for years to come for the team that drafts him, but that doesn’t mean he’ll end up the best player in this draft. There are a growing number of scouts who believe that Karl-Anthony Towns will end up being the superior player in a few short years. Towns does possess the athleticism to evolve into someone quite special on the court. His offense is a work in progress, but he’s already a superior defender to Okafor. But the Duke big man gets the edge in maturity and overall polish over Towns.
The wildcard in this year’s draft will be the positional needs of the team that wins the NBA lottery. A team like the Sixers, who have Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel in their frontcourt already, may find selecting Emmanuel Mudiay or D’Angelo Russell a more practical choice. Both guards have been mentioned at one time or another as being in contention to go No. 1 overall by various scouts. But barring an injury to Okafor between now and June, I still don’t foresee too many GMs taking a pass on adding Okafor to their roster if given the opportunity on draft night.
“Who do you think will be a sleeper pick in the NBA draft?” — Dustin
This is a funny sort of draft. Just about every player in the second-tier could be considered a sleeper depending on where they are selected. The crop this year is close in so many ways. But I’ll give you a few players who could end up surprising the league.
- R.J. Hunter (Georgia State) — Guard
- Jakob Poeltl (Utah) — Center
- Zhou Qi (China) — Forward
- Justin Anderson (Virginia) — Forward/Guard
- Robert Upshaw (Washington) — Center
Both Hunter and Poeltl could be mid-to-late first-rounders, though Poeltl may come back for his sophomore season at Utah. Poeltl has a wealth of potential, but needs quite a bit of polish. Coming back for one more season would be a good move, especially given the wealth of big men in this year’s draft.
Hunter is a player who I believe will make a better pro than college player. The kid is fearless and he can and will shoot from anywhere in the arena. He’s hitting under 40% of his field goal attempts this season, which obviously isn’t great. But he’s a player who could turn into a big time scorer off the bench.
Anderson should end up being a mid first round pick as well, and he’s a player with quite a bit of upside and athleticism. As with most college wings, his outside shot needs more consistency, and he needs to figure out how to create his own shot better if he wants to succeed at the next level.
The last two on this list, Upshaw and Qi, are likely second-rounders. Upshaw has first round talent, but with the glut of big men available in this year’s draft, he’ll probably slide a bit as a result. His defense should translate very well to the NBA, but he needs some serious development on offense. Upshaw also has some character concerns. He was dismissed from Fresno State for multiple rules violations before attending Washington. But his talent will make him worthy of a gamble.
Qi is a bit of a wild card. He’s a fantastic athlete with a high skillset. The Chinese big man would be a great draft-and-stash candidate for a patient team. The 19-year-old is scary thin, and would not survive an NBA season until he added some weight and muscle. But Qi just may be the third most talented international player in this year’s draft behind Mario Hezonja and Kristaps Porzingis.
That’s all the space I have for now. I’ll be back next week to answer more of your questions. So please keep filling up my inbox with them in the meantime. Feel free to add to the discussion in the comments section below.
2015/16 Salary Commitments: Bulls
With the NBA trade deadline now passed, teams are focusing on locking down playoff spots or vying for a better chance in the draft lottery. Outside of the players who are added on 10-day deals, or those lucky enough to turn those auditions into long-term contracts, teams’ rosters are relatively set for the remainder of the season.
We at Hoops Rumors are in the process of taking a look ahead at each franchise’s salary cap situation heading into the summer, and the free agent frenzy that occurs every offseason. While the exact amount of the 2015/16 salary cap won’t be announced until July, the cap is projected to come in somewhere around $68MM, with the luxury tax threshold projected at approximately $81MM. This year’s $63.065MM cap represented an increase of 7.7% over 2013/14, which was well above the league’s projected annual increase of 4.5%.
We’ll continue by taking a look at the Bulls’ cap outlook for 2015/16…
Here are the players with guaranteed contracts:
- Pau Gasol — $7,448,760
- Taj Gibson — $8.5MM
- Richard Hamilton (Stretch Provision) — $333,333
- Doug McDermott — $2,380,440
- Nikola Mirotic — $5,543,725
- Joakim Noah — $13.9MM
- Derrick Rose — $20,093,064
- Tony Snell — $1,535,880
Here are the players with non-guaranteed contracts:
- Cameron Bairstow — $845,059 ($425K Guaranteed)
- E’Twaun Moore — $1,015,421
Players with options:
- Kirk Hinrich (Player Option) — $2,854,940
The Bulls’ Cap Summary for 2015/16:
- Guaranteed Salary: $60,160,202
- Options/Non-Guaranteed Salary: $4,290,420
- Total: $64,450,622
The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.
Western Notes: Conley, Powell, Gentry
The five-year, $45 million deal that the Grizzlies inked Mike Conley to is looked upon as one of the great bargains around the league, and has allowed Memphis to add high-level role players to its roster without entering luxury tax territory, Amin Elhassan of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required) writes. His deal will also allow the team to offer Marc Gasol a max contract this summer when he hits free agency, Elhassan adds. But it’s when Conley’s contract expires in 2016 that he’ll be expensive to retain, and the veteran could command a salary in the $25MM per season range, the ESPN scribe notes.
Here’s more from the Western Conference:
- The Mavericks have once again recalled big man Dwight Powell from the Texas Legends, their D-League affiliate, Earl K. Sneed of Mavs.com reports (Twitter link). This concludes Powell’s ninth journey of the season to the D-League.
- Bojan Dubljevic extended his contract with Valencia of Spain for three more seasons, his agent Misko Raznatovic announced via Twitter. The final season of the deal includes a mutual option, Raznatovic added. Dubljevic, 23, is a draft-and-stash pick who was selected with the No. 59 overall pick in the 2013 NBA draft by the Wolves, who still hold his rights.
- The success that the Warriors have enjoyed this season could lead to another head coaching opportunity for Golden State associate coach Alvin Gentry, Diamond Leung of The Bay Area News Group writes. Gentry has coached four different teams and owns a lifetime record of 335-370.
- Gentry admits that he would like another opportunity to be a head coach, but added that he is very happy with the Warriors organization, Leung notes. “If there’s a good situation, yeah, I would like to be a head coach again,” Gentry said. “But it would have to be a situation that would have to be very good. What we got here is very special, and I’ve been in the league long enough to know that I wouldn’t want to go into a situation that I didn’t think had potential to be this way.“
Central Notes: George, Miller, Jackson
Pacers fans may have to wait a bit longer than anticipated for Paul George to make his return to the court, Matthew Glenesk of USA Today writes. The swingman has been increasingly hesitant to discuss when or if he’ll be playing this season, Glenesk notes. The 24-year-old has been experiencing increased soreness in his injured leg as he attempts to work his way into game shape. George also worries about disrupting Indiana’s team chemistry, the USA Today scribe adds. “I’m on the fence,” George said. “Part of me is, they’re playing so well, they’ve come together, to shake up the chemistry and add another body, another player in there. I don’t want to be that guy that destroys what these guys have going.”
Here’s more from the Central Division:
- The Pistons wouldn’t have made the Reggie Jackson trade if Brandon Jennings hadn’t torn his Achilles tendon, and the team would likely match an offer of $13-14MM a year to Jackson when he’s a restricted free agent this summer, as MLive’s David Mayo writes in his mailbag column. Mayo also figures the team will target Paul Millsap this summer.
- Quincy Miller showed the Pistons enough potential in practice that the team inked him to a deal that includes the remainder of this season, the summer league, and training camp next season, Keith Langlois of NBA.com writes. “We’ve seen a couple of practices and we know what we had before,” Detroit coach/executive Stan Van Gundy said of Miller. “He’s a guy with size and length and athletic ability and can shoot the ball. He’s somebody that we want to see.“
- Van Gundy noted that inking Miller wasn’t a high-risk move on the team’s part, Langlois adds. “It’s not a huge investment for us,” Van Gundy said. “We’re getting it set up so we have him through the summer and through training camp next year, so we get a good, long look at him. He’s a guy that’s got great potential to develop. He’s a really, really hard worker, so we’ll see where it goes.“
Chuck Myron contributed to this post.
2015/16 Salary Commitments: Hornets
With the NBA trade deadline now passed, teams are focusing on locking down playoff spots or vying for a better chance in the draft lottery. Outside of the players who are added on 10-day deals, or those lucky enough to turn those auditions into long-term contracts, teams’ rosters are relatively set for the remainder of the season.
We at Hoops Rumors are in the process of taking a look ahead at each franchise’s salary cap situation heading into the summer, and the free agent frenzy that occurs every offseason. While the exact amount of the 2015/16 salary cap won’t be announced until July, the cap is projected to come in somewhere around $68MM, with the luxury tax threshold projected at approximately $81MM. This year’s $63.065MM cap represented an increase of 7.7% over 2013/14, which was well above the league’s projected annual increase of 4.5%.
We’ll continue onward by taking a look at the Hornets’ cap outlook for 2015/16…
Here are the players with guaranteed contracts:
- Troy Daniels — $947,276
- P.J. Hairston — $1,201,440
- Michael Kidd-Gilchrist — $6,331,404
- Brian Roberts — $2,854,940
- Lance Stephenson — $9MM
- Noah Vonleh — $2,637,720
- Kemba Walker — $12MM
- Marvin Williams — $7MM
- Cody Zeller — $4,204,200
Here are the players with non-guaranteed contracts:
- N/A
Players with options:
- Gerald Henderson (Player Option) — $6MM
- Al Jefferson (Player Option) — $13.5MM
The Hornets’ Cap Summary for 2015/16:
- Guaranteed Salary: $46,176,980
- Options/Non-Guaranteed Salary: $19.5MM
- Total: $65,676,980
The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.
Players Eligible For Restricted Free Agency
All but five NBA teams have at least one player eligible for restricted free agency next season, though the number of players who actually become restricted free agents usually isn’t as high as that might suggest. Only 17 players wound up signing NBA contracts via restricted free agency this past offseason, in large measure because teams declined to tender qualifying offers to many free agents they didn’t prioritize keeping. Teams must make qualifying offers to restrict the free agency of their players, but there’s little reason to retain the right to match offers for a player who isn’t in demand, particularly when qualifying offers almost always entail a higher salary than the player saw the year before.
Still, several marquee and second-tier players near the end of their deals will indeed become restricted free agents. Only players who’ve been in the league for three or fewer seasons can be made restricted free agents, with the exception of players on rookie scale contracts, who can be restricted free agents after those four-year contracts run to term.
However, if a team declines a team option on a rookie scale contract, it can’t make the player a restricted free agent, even if the rookie deal ran only two or three seasons. If teams decline their options on non-rookie scale contracts, they can still restrict the player’s free agency. Team options are nonetheless rare for deals that aren’t rookie scale contracts, as most teams employ non-guaranteed salary instead, but if a club waives a non-guaranteed contract, it can’t make the player a restricted free agent no matter how long he’s been in the league.
Here’s a team-by-team look at the players eligible for restricted free agency this year:
76ers
Bucks
Bulls
Cavaliers
Celtics
Clippers
- None
Grizzlies
Hawks
Heat
- None
Hornets
Jazz
Kings
Knicks
Lakers
- None
Magic
Mavericks
Nets
Nuggets
Pacers
Pelicans
Pistons
Raptors
- None
Rockets
Spurs
Suns
Thunder
Timberwolves
Trail Blazers
Warriors
Wizards
- None
* — The Rockets hold a team option on Papanikolaou, but if they decline it, he’ll be eligible for restricted free agency. Houston was in the same position last season with Chandler Parsons, and the team declined its option, making him a restricted free agent and choosing not to match when he signed an offer sheet with the Mavs. The market for Papanikolaou is not expected to approach last year’s demand for Parsons, however.
The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.
Poll: Who Should Win Executive Of The Year?
The NBA hierarchy has undergone a shakeup this season, but it’s tough to identify a front-runner for the Executive of the Year award. There’s still about a month to go before the end of the regular season, and the extra time might make the choice somewhat easier, but the outcome seems destined to be too close to call until the winner is revealed. Here’s a look at five strong candidates, in alphabetical order:
- Danny Ferry, Hawks: Ferry would probably be the clear-cut favorite if not for his racially charged remarks about Luol Deng that prompted him to take an indefinite leave of absence in September, one from which he’s yet to return. The roster that Ferry constructed is running away with the Eastern Conference, though much of the credit for that belongs to coach Mike Budenholzer, who’s running the front office in Ferry’s absence. Ferry nonetheless built the Hawks in the mold of the Spurs, where he’d previously served as an executive, and perhaps no one outside of San Antonio has had as much success with the formula as this Atlanta team has. It’s happened on the cheap, too, as the Hawks are below the salary cap.
- Gar Forman, Bulls: Forman shares front office responsibilities with executive vice president of basketball operations John Paxson, but Forman seems to handle most of the day-to-day duties. Chicago’s title hopes still largely live and die with the health of Derrick Rose, but the Bulls are less dependent on their point guard than in years past after amnestying Carlos Boozer, a move that cleared the way for Pau Gasol‘s three-year, $22.346MM deal, one that looks like a bargain. Forman and company also brought over Nikola Mirotic, who’s fit right into the team’s rotation, and watched as Jimmy Butler, the last pick of the first round in the 2011 draft, has outplayed many former first overall picks this year.
- David Griffin, Cavs: The widespread perception is that LeBron James is the one who really pulls the strings in Cleveland, but they don’t hand out the Executive of the Year award to players. Even if LeBron was the catalyst for or at least had input on the team’s moves since he rejoined this past July, Griffin deserves credit for acquiring just about every target the team has sought this season. The Cavs wanted Kevin Love, and they got him. They wanted Timofey Mozgov, and they got him, too. The same is true of Kendrick Perkins. They sought an upgrade on the wing, and they traded for both Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith. The only major miss was on Ray Allen, but he’s not playing for anyone else.
- Bob Myers, Warriors: Golden State’s front office takes a collaborative approach, and the roster is largely intact from last season. Still, the Warriors have earned praise for their decision not to give up Thompson for Love and to give Thompson an extension that secured him for four more years. The hiring of new coach Steve Kerr has also paid dividends. One of the first moves the Warriors made after promoting Myers to GM was to draft Draymond Green 35th overall in 2012, and he’s proven a steal both for his draft position and his minimum salary.
- Neil Olshey, Trail Blazers: Portland was coming off a 28-38 season when Olshey arrived from the Clippers, and the first major move on Olshey’s Blazers resume was perhaps his most impressive, drafting Damian Lillard. The GM has gradually built around Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge, turning the team into a winning outfit that convinced Aldridge to stay after it seemed he was on his way out two years ago. Olshey didn’t make many earth-shattering moves this year, but he should receive consideration based on the sum of his achievements in Portland.
Let us know who you think should win the Executive of the Year award, and feel free to elaborate on your choice in the comments.
Who Should Win The 2014/15 Executive Of The Year Award?
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Danny Ferry, Hawks 29% (182)
-
David Griffin, Cavaliers 25% (159)
-
Bob Myers, Warriors 21% (134)
-
Someone else 17% (108)
-
Gar Forman, Bulls 4% (27)
-
Neil Olshey, Trail Blazers 4% (25)
Total votes: 635
Eastern Notes: Ferry, Brand, Kirilenko, Heat, C’s
Hawks executive and prospective owner Dominique Wilkins hasn’t exactly been enamored with Danny Ferry after he tried to block the building of a statue in honor of the Hawks legend, as Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes in a subscription-only piece. Schultz examines the uncertain future of the GM who’s been on indefinite leave of absence since September and the opposition he faces from Hawks co-owner Michael Gearon Jr., who reportedly sought Ferry’s ouster and, according to Schultz, fears the GM’s return. There’s more on the Hawks amid the latest from the Eastern Conference:
- Elton Brand says he’ll wait until season’s end to decide whether he’ll retire, tweets Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Brand also considered retirement after last season before he re-signed with the Hawks on a one-year, $2MM deal.
- It appears that Andrei Kirilenko‘s departure from the Sixers constituted a buyout deal, as his salary was reduced from $3,326,235 to $2,328,365, according to Eric Pincus, who reports via Twitter and shows more detail on his Sixers salary page at Basketball Insiders. Presumably, that $997,870 difference is on top of the money Kirilenko lost during his unpaid suspension.
- Having Hassan Whiteside blossom as he has is “almost like getting a lottery pick” to make up for the first-rounders the team dealt away when it signed-and-traded for LeBron James and Chris Bosh in 2010, Heat president Pat Riley tells Bleacher Report’s Ethan Skolnick (Twitter link). Riley added that he feels as though Michael Beasley and perhaps Tyler Johnson also have the ability to offset the loss of those picks.
- Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge is much more pleased with his club now than he was two months ago, as Chris Forsberg of ESPNBoston.com observes.
Suns Sign Earl Barron For The Season
FRIDAY, 1:22pm: The deal is official, the team announced. The Suns refer to it a contract for the remainder of the season rather than a multiyear arrangement.
THURSDAY, 7:39pm: The Suns intend to sign Earl Barron to a contract for the remainder of the season, Shams Charania of RealGM reports (Twitter link). It’s unclear if the deal stretches into next season and if so, if any guaranteed money is involved. Barron’s second 10-day pact expires today.
This move will give Phoenix 14 players on its roster with fully guaranteed deals for this season. The team also has Seth Curry, whom they recently signed to a 10-day pact. Phoenix will still be able to offer Curry another 10-day deal before having to decide to sign him for the remainder of the season.
The 33-year-old out of Memphis has appeared in eight contest for Phoenix, including one start. Barron is averaging 1.1 points and 0.8 rebounds in 5.6 minutes per night. His career numbers are 4.7 PPG and 3.6 RPG, with a slash line of .374/.071/.717.
Nets Notes: Sale, Karasev, Prokhorov, 2016
Evercore Partners, an investment banking firm Mikhail Prokhorov hired to help facilitate a prospective sale of the team, made the decision to end their relationship with the Nets, and not the other way around, as previously indicated, according to Mike Ozanian of Forbes.com. Prokhorov and company would prefer to sell a minority stake in the club, as Robert Windrem of NetsDaily reported previously and as Ozanian reiterates, calling it the primary holdup for the sale of any portion of the team. The “sale process was a mess,” a sports banker tells Ozanian, who also hears that interest from would-be buyers has been weak. There’s plenty more on the Nets, as we detail:
- The Nets anticipate that Sergey Karasev will be healthy in time for training camp next season, the team announced. The 2013 19th overall pick underwent season-ending surgery on his right knee.
- Prokhorov is much less of a presence around the Nets than he used to be, notes Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News, who cites all the shortcomings of the team as he goes over reasons why the owner might want to hide.
- Almost every team is set to be able to open cap room for a maximum-salary contract in the summer of 2016, but Tim Bontemps of the New York Post believes free agents are more likely to choose the Nets and Knicks over small market clubs that lack contending cores.