Hoops Rumors Community Shootaround 6/22/15
Some of the greatest joys of being a sports fan, besides your favorite team winning the championship, are the debates that arise between fellow sports nuts along the way. It’s with this in mind that we have begun providing a forum for basketball fanatics to voice their opinions, debate trending topics, and simply hang out with like-minded hoops aficionados. We’ve begun been posting a new topic for readers to discuss each weeknight, which we hope that this will become a regular part of your sports day. If you missed our previous discussions you can view them here, or simply head over to the sidebar and select “Hoops Rumors Community Shootarounds.”
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Now that the preamble has been taken care of, on to the topic of the day: Which projected first-rounder in this year’s NBA draft is the likeliest to become a bust/disappointment?
The NBA draft is a source of optimism around the league, with each team hoping to select the next superstar with its pick. There have been countless players who have entered the league with a world of talent, as well as the hype to go along with it. Unfortunately, quite a few of these players never live up to their press clippings. Players like Darko Milicic, Hasheem Thabeet, Joe Alexander, Kwame Brown, and Adam Morrison immediately spring to mind. This year’s Draft will be no different. There will be players who will surprise us with how well they transition to the pros, and who make the front office personnel who made the call to take them look like geniuses. But there will also be a number of draftees who can’t cut it in the NBA, and will make us look back in puzzlement at how all the scouting reports could have been so wrong.
So whom do you think will be the biggest disappointment taken in the first round? It could be someone selected in the draft lottery just as easily as a player taken toward the end of the first round. Take to the comments section below to share your predictions. We look forward to what you have to say.
And-Ones: Thunder, Grizzlies, Antic
- The Knicks, Kings and Hornets are the teams most likely to trade out of the Top 10 in the draft, Mannix reports in a separate tweet.
- Guards Andre Hollins and Deville Smith and forwards Nino Johnson and Aaron White worked out for the Grizzlies on Monday, completing the team’s predraft workouts, according to Grizzlies.com.
- R.J. Hunter, Anthony Brown, Olivier Hanlan, Christian Wood, Sir’Dominic Porter and Mouhammadou Jaiteh will work out for the Wizards on Tuesday, according to J. Michael of CSNWashington.com. (Twitter link).
- Fenerbahce of the Turkish League is interested in signing Hawks free agent center Pero Antic, according to Sportando’s Emiliano Carchia.
Draft Notes: Porzingis, Kings, Pacers
The Knicks held a private workout for Kristaps Porzingis on Monday morning, according to Frank Isola of the New York Daily News. The Knicks were impressed by his workout in Las Vegas two weeks ago and wanted to take a second look at the Latvian power forward, Isola continues. D’Angelo Russell is still the Knicks’ likely choice at No. 4 if he’s available and they do not trade the pick, Isola adds. Marc Berman of the New York Post, who also reported the workout, notes that team president Phil Jackson said he is trying to draft a starter with the fourth pick, which would make Porzingis an odd fit. “He’s absolutely not a starter on a good team next season and maybe not [on] a bad team,’’ one NBA scout told Berman. “He’s not physically ready. I’d be shocked if they took him.’’
In other draft news around the league:
- Officials from many teams sense that the interest the Sixers have in Porzingis is overstated and a ruse to convince competitors to trade up for the pick, Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress writes in his latest mock draft.
- Many believe that the Grizzlies, at pick No. 25, are the team that’s made the reported promise to Jarell Martin, Givony writes in the same piece.
- Willie Cauley-Stein would not make sense with the Kings’ lottery pick because he wouldn’t be a good fit alongside DeMarcus Cousins, Ailene Voisin of the Sacramento Bee tweets. Multiple scouts told Voisin that Cauley-Stein would clog the lane and limit the spacing for Cousins in the low post. In contrast, the Kings are intrigued by the pairing of Frank Kaminsky and Cousins, according to Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated (Twitter link). Kaminsky had a strong workout with the Kings on Monday, Mannix adds.
- The Celtics are trying to move up in the draft and have had discussions with at least one team in the Top 10, Mannix writes a separate tweet. Mannix quotes a rival executive that Boston is being “aggressive, one of the few teams thinking big.”
- The Pacers could trade out of the lottery and into the late teens or early 20s of the first round if the player they target at No. 11 is taken ahead of them, Alex Kennedy of Basketball Insiders tweets.
Offseason Outlook: Golden State Warriors
Guaranteed Contracts
- Klay Thompson ($15,501,000)1
- David Lee ($15,493,680)
- Andrew Bogut ($12,000,000)
- Andre Iguodala ($11,710,456)
- Stephen Curry ($11,370,786)
- Shaun Livingston ($5,543,725)
- Harrison Barnes ($3,873,398)
- Festus Ezeli ($2,008,748)
Non-Guaranteed Contracts
- James Michael McAdoo ($845,059)2
Options
- Marreese Speights ($3,815,000 — Team)3
- Brandon Rush ($1,270,964 — Player)4
Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds
- Draymond Green ($2,725,003) — $2,725,003 qualifying offer5
- Justin Holiday ($1,147,276) — $1,147,276 qualifying offer6
- Ognjen Kuzmic ($1,147,276) — $1,147,276 qualifying offer7
Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds
- (Jordan Crawford $5,406,048)8
- (Jermaine O’Neal $2,400,000)8
- Leandro Barbosa ($947,276)
- No. 30 pick ($943,300)
Draft Picks
- 1st Round (30th overall)
Cap Outlook
- Guaranteed Salary: $77,601,793
- Non-Guaranteed Salary: $745,059
- Options: $5,085,964
- Cap Holds: $14,716,179
- Total: $98,148,995
Continuity is a word rarely attached to any team’s offseason strategy. Most franchises spend those months upgrading at positions of need, executing a rebuilding plan, retooling with young players or making flashy moves. Even many championship teams rarely stand pat, either out of necessity because of salary issues or free agency, or under the assumption they cannot repeat without a different mix.
Not so with the Golden State Warriors. Their avowed goal this offseason, as GM Bob Myers declared after the team’s first title in 40 years, is to keep their young core intact. Considering that all but one of their starters is 27 years old or younger, that’s not surprising. Sure, they’d like to make a couple of tweaks but the Warriors seem poised to defend their title with most, if not all, of their rotation players returning in their same roles.
“When you have the success that we had, you like to keep it together as much as possible,” Myers said during his postseason press conference. “It doesn’t mean you don’t open your eyes to see what else is out there, but if it’s a close call, you always want to retain the talent that got you a championship.”
Golden State’s front office has one major order of business this summer — retaining its best frontcourt player, Draymond Green. That will come at a high price financially but there’s little chance that Green will wind up in another uniform. Green, who is represented by former NBA player B.J. Armstrong of the Arn Tellem-led Wasserman Media Group, is due for a massive increase in pay after making less than $1MM this past season. It’s expected that the restricted free agent will command a max level contract or something in that ballpark with a starting salary of approximately $16MM.
Green has emerged as one of the league’s top two-way players and should have his share of suitors. There were rumblings during the season that the Pistons would make a strong push for Green, who grew up in Michigan and developed into an All-American talent under coach Tom Izzo at Michigan State. But while the Warriors cannot address the situation publicly, they have quietly made it known that they will match any offer that comes his way. Green himself said he wasn’t going anywhere, though that proclamation came during the euphoria of the championship celebration.
It may actually be in the Warriors’ best interest if Green signs an offer sheet. That would allow them to lock up Green for another three or four seasons without any tricky negotiations. While it’s almost unfathomable to believe that Green would sign his qualifying offer of $2.725MM, he could attempt to work out a shorter deal with the Warriors that would allow him to swiftly re-enter the market as an unrestricted free agent.
The tricky part for the club is securing Green’s services long term while avoiding the dreaded luxury tax in the short term. They have $77.6MM in salary commitments for next season with the tax line projected to come in at $81.6MM. The easiest way to stay under the tax threshold is to deal David Lee‘s expiring contract of approximately $15.49MM and that’s the most likely outcome. While Myers hasn’t committed to doing that, it’s the only viable way to avoid the luxury tax without dealing one of those core players. Though Lee played a valuable role in the NBA Finals, he dropped out of coach Steve Kerr‘s rotation during the regular season.
Naturally, everyone around the league is well aware of the Warriors’ predicament and Golden State may have to give up an additional asset or two, such as draft picks, to make the deal happen. The Jazz reportedly engaged in serious discussions with the Warriors about acquiring Lee at the trade deadline and he could still help Utah and many other teams with his offensive skills. But no team has a trade exception big enough to absorb Lee’s contract, so the Warriors must find a trade partner with at least that much cap space or one that possesses some major non-guaranteed contracts. A third party might be required to pull it off.
A big reason why the Warriors have so much guaranteed money tied up is that they were proactive in re-signing the Splash Brothers. Klay Thompson‘s four-year extension with a starting salary of $15.5MM kicks in next season. The contract of reigning league MVP Stephen Curry has two years remaining and he will make the bargain basement rate of $11.37MM next season.
Once the Green-Lee issues are decided, the Warriors can focus on working out a contract extension with Harrison Barnes. Both parties are interested in getting something done by the October 31st deadline and it’s estimated that Barnes will command an annual salary in the $10MM-$12MM range. That wouldn’t affect the Warriors’ bottom line next season, since the extension would kick in for the 2016/17 season when the league’s salary cap is expected to dramatically increase.
The team’s only unrestricted free agent is veteran reserve shooting guard Leandro Barbosa, who was part of Kerr’s rotation most of the season. If Barbosa does not return, they will be in the market for a backup shooting guard. The Warriors also have to decide whether to exercise their $3.815MM team option on Marreese Speights — an unlikely prospect considering their cap situation — and extend qualifying offers to Justin Holiday and Ognjen Kuzmic.
They can add depth with their first-round pick at No. 30 overall (they don’t have a second rounder) and through free agency via exceptions. They have the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions available if they can avoid the luxury-tax apron. Otherwise, they’d be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception of $3.376MM.
That’s how they could make those aforementioned tweaks. Otherwise, the Warriors seem content to bring the not-so-old gang back and stay the course.
Cap Footnotes
1 — Thompson’s salary will be the league’s maximum salary for a player with four years of experience or $15,501,000, whichever is less.
2 — McAdoo’s salary is partially guaranteed for $100,000.
3 — The cap hold for Speights would be $4,754,750 if the Warriors decline their team option on him.
4 — The cap hold for Rush would be $947,276 if he opts out.
5 — The cap hold for Green would be $947,276 if the team decides not to tender a qualifying offer.
6 — The cap hold for Holiday would be $947,276 if the team decides not to tender a qualifying offer.
7 — The cap hold for Kuzmic would be $947,276 if the team decides not to tender a qualifying offer.
8 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation of why these players technically remain on the books.
The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.
Wesley Matthews Seeking $15MM Annually
Wesley Matthews will seek a multi-year deal that pays approximately $15MM annually, according to Sam Amick of USA Today. A source with knowledge of the situation told Amick of Matthews’ intentions, which refutes a report last month that indicated the unrestricted free agent guard was willing to give the Trail Blazers a discount. Matthews essentially confirmed Amick’s report to Jabari Young of Comcast SportsNet Northwest on Monday evening, saying “I don’t think that’s an unreasonable number.” (Twitter link)
The contract that Matthews seeks is a mild surprise, considering that he tore his left Achilles’ tendon in early March. However, Matthews has already returned to basketball activities and is expected to be ready by the start of the next season, Amick reports, though he might have to proceed with caution during the preseason. Matthews could still re-sign with the Blazers, who could also lose Arron Afflalo, the player who replaced him in the lineup. Afflalo plans to decline his $7.75MM player option and become an unrestricted free agent.
Prior to the injury, Matthews was enjoying arguably his best season. He was averaging 15.9 points and 1.3 steals per game and had a gaudy player efficiency rating of 16.1. He shot 38.9% from behind the arc and only the Warriors’ Splash Brothers’ duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson made more three-pointers per game. Defensively, he ranked fifth among shooting guards in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus/Minus.
Matthews calculates that the major increase in the salary cap beginning next season gives him more leverage, since players with his proven track record will become more costly to acquire, Amick adds. The Knicks and Celtics are two of the teams that may make a run at Matthews. Amick also raises the possibility of the Spurs or Mavericks signing Matthews as a means to lure teammate, close friend and unrestricted free agent LaMarcus Aldridge.
Nuggets Rumors: Draft Deals, Winslow, Nori
The Nuggets might add another first-round pick via a trade, Christopher Dempsey of the Denver Post reports. The Nuggets have some movable pieces that could land them another pick later in the lottery after they select at No. 7, Dempsey continues. There’s a good chance the Nuggets will make at least one move this week, since GM Tim Connelly told Dempsey that he will be proactive during draft night. “We want to be aggressive,” Connelly said. “We’re looking at any and all scenarios, and we’ve already proactively made a lot of those calls. We’ll see what we can do to make it interesting and hopefully give Coach [Michael Malone] the best team possible.”
In other Nuggets news:
- The club would have to create a space, probably through a trade, to fit in Justise Winslow if they draft him, Dempsey adds in a separate piece. The Duke swingman could play shooting guard at times but he’s a natural small forward, Dempsey continues. The team already has Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler at that spot. Winslow’s ability to run the floor and defend his position would make him a good fit with a defensive-minded coach like Malone, Dempsey concludes.
- Tyus Jones’ workout with the Nuggets today will be his last before the draft, as he tells Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities as part of a larger Q&A session with the Minnesota native.
- Malone will hire away assistant coach Micah Nori from the Kings, David Aldridge of NBA.com tweets. Malone was fired as Sacramento’s head coach in December. Nori was previously an assistant with the Raptors, Aldridge adds.
Central Notes: Pistons, Vaughn, Cavs
The Pistons are not expecting their lottery pick to become a starter next season but they will keep the pick unless they get a superstar talent, Keith Langlois of Pistons.com reports. Coach and president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy told the team’s beat reporters on Monday that with ample cap space — approximately $20MM even after the Ersan Ilyasova deal — that he’ll fill the starting small forward vacancy through free agency or a trade, Langlois continues. Tayshaun Prince, the starting small forward during the second half of last season, is an unrestricted free agent. Van Gundy virtually shut the door on reports that the Pistons were shopping the No. 8 overall pick, including one on Monday about a possible deal with the Knicks for guard Tim Hardaway Jr., Langlois adds. “The one thing we are firm on is – minus a superstar being available – we won’t trade out of the draft,” Van Gundy said. “For your salary structure and everything else, it’s too important. It’s probably unlikely that we trade back, but it’s not impossible.”
In other news around the Central Division
- Van Gundy acknowledged during the same press conference that he was “not entirely optimistic” about retaining unrestricted free agent Greg Monroe, the Associated Press reports. Though Van Gundy indicated it wasn’t a foregone conclusion, Monroe is expected to find a starting job elsewhere. The trade for Ilyasova gives the Pistons a starting-caliber power forward to replace him.
- Shooting guard Rashad Vaughn was among six players brought in by the Bucks in their final pre-draft workout, according to the team’s website. Vaughn is rated No. 19 on ESPN Insider Chad Ford’s Top 100 prospects list, twice as high as DraftExpress’ Jonathan Givony, who pegs him at No. 38. The group consisted of mostly late first-round and second-round prospects, including centers Mouhammadou Jaiteh and Josh Smith (Georgetown) and forwards Christian Wood, Cody Larson and J.P. Tokoto. The Bucks own the No. 17 and No. 46 picks in the draft.
- Syracuse center Rakeem Christmas was part of a group workout with the Cavaliers on Monday, according to Michael Scotto of Sheridan Hoops (Twitter link). Christmas is rated No. 34 on Ford’s board and No. 43 by Givony. The Cavs hold the No. 24 and No. 53 selections on Thursday.
Pistons Interested In Tim Hardaway Jr.?
4:55pm: Pistons coach/executive Stan Van Gundy said today that he’s never talked to the Knicks about a Hardaway-Jennings deal, tweets Keith Langlois of Pistons.com.
9:31am: A person with firsthand knowledge of the Pistons’ thinking tells Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press that there’s nothing to the chatter involving Hardaway and Jennings (Twitter link).
8:08am: The Pistons have reached out to the Knicks about trading for Tim Hardaway Jr., league sources tell Ian Begley of ESPNNewYork.com, who writes at the bottom of a larger piece about Kevon Looney. Begley suggests that the Pistons would want to send back Brandon Jennings in such a deal, though it’s not clear if that’s truly the case or if the Knicks would be willing to take on the point guard who’s still recovering from a torn Achilles, at least without receiving other assets in return.
Hardaway has shown promise the last two seasons since the Knicks took him 24th overall in the 2013 draft, averaging 10.8 points on 35.3% shooting in 23.5 minutes per game. He improved slightly this past season, one in which he started in 30 of 70 appearances. It’s unclear whether the Pistons see him as a backup or a potential competitor for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for the starting job at shooting guard.
The rookie scale salary of less than $1.305MM that Hardaway is to receive next season wouldn’t be a match for the nearly $8.345MM that Jennings is set to make. The Knicks don’t have a trade exception large enough for Jennings, so New York would have to add other salary to a Jennings-Hardaway swap if it took place before June 30th. However, both teams are poised to open cap space in July, so they could do a one-for-one like that as under-the-cap teams next month without having to worry about salary-matching.
It wouldn’t be surprising if picks in this week’s draft were involved, though that’s just my speculation. The Knicks have been widely rumored to have interest in trading back from the No. 4 spot. Detroit has the eighth pick.
Raymond Felton Opts In With Mavs
JUNE 22ND: The point guard has formally opted in, tweets Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders. He’s been involved in a couple of trade rumors since the last report.
MAY 18TH: Felton and one of his representatives has told the Mavs that the Wasserman Media Group client will indeed opt in, several sources told Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News today. Neither Felton nor his camp has filed the official paperwork yet, but they have until June 23rd to do so, according to Sefko. That’s six days earlier than the usual June 29th decision date on player options. Sefko also reveals that Monta Ellis has a June 24th deadline on his player option worth $8.72MM. There’s been no indication that Ellis has decided whether to opt in or opt out. Dallas, without any player options taken into account, has about $28MM on the books for next season.
MAY 8TH: Mavericks guard Raymond Felton will file paperwork to exercise his $3.9MM player option for next season, league sources told Shams Charania of RealGM. Felton, 30, saw time in just 29 regular season games last season.
The Mavs’ backcourt was hit hard by injuries in the spring and coach Rick Carlisle offered high praise of the veteran guard’s play during that time.
“He’s a high-integrity guy. He really is,” said Carlisle. “He’s a high-integrity competitor. There hasn’t been one time this year where he’s dropped his head or pouted. When he was hurt, when he came back and there weren’t minutes right away, he’s just remained consistently professional and he kept working extremely hard, which shows now that he’s getting an opportunity to play.”
Thanks to Felton’s ankle injury and the four-game suspension he was issued with after pleading guilty to a gun charge, the guard didn’t make his regular season debut until late December. Felton has averaged 12.7 PPG and 6.3 APG over the course of his career with the Bobcats, Knicks, Blazers, Nuggets, and Mavs.
Clippers Explore Potential Jamal Crawford Trades
MONDAY, 4:33pm: Chandler is indeed an object of the Clippers’ interest, Markazi clarifies via Twitter. He’s on a lengthy list of Clippers small forward targets that includes soon-to-be free agents Pierce, Mike Dunleavy and Al-Farouq Aminu, according to Dan Woike of the Orange County Register (Twitter link).
THURSDAY, 12:10pm: The Clippers are investigating the possibility of trading Jamal Crawford, sources tell Arash Markazi of ESPNLosAngeles.com, who writes amid a story about the impact of Monday trade acquisition Lance Stephenson. One option would be to trade Crawford and C.J. Wilcox to the Nuggets for Wilson Chandler, according to Markazi, though it’s unclear from the report which side, if either, has interest in such a deal.
Crawford’s salary of $5.675MM is only guaranteed for $1.5MM if he’s waived by the end of June 30th, though he remains a productive player who doesn’t seem like a candidate for a purely salary-clearing move. Still, the arrival of Stephenson, who plays Crawford’s positions, would appear to give L.A. less of a need for the two-time Sixth Man of the Year award winner.
Clippers coach/executive Doc Rivers told Fred Roggin of The Beat 980 this week that he’s looking for a starting small forward to replace Matt Barnes, whom the team sent out in the Stephenson trade, as Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times relayed via Twitter. The team is reportedly interested in Paul Pierce should he opt out from the Wizards. Chandler, who’ll make nearly $7.172MM on an expiring contract next season after the Nuggets let his partial guarantee date pass this spring, would probably fit that bill, too, though this past season was only the second in his eight-year NBA career in which he started at least 70 games.
Crawford switched agents recently, joining the Wasserman Media Group, and while his contract runs through next season, it’s perhaps a sign that he anticipated change in the nearer future. Wilcox, last year’s 28th overall pick, saw only 101 total minutes this past season, and while he has a guaranteed salary of nearly $1.16MM coming his way for 2015/16, a decision is due by October 31st on the $1.2MM-plus third-year team option attached to his rookie scale contract.